今年以来，全球资产价格正经历一轮重要调整：10 年期美国国债收益率较年内高点回落超 50 个基点， 美元指数（DXY）较高点下跌超 10%。不过在夏季行情中，这两大资产的下行势头均遇阻。 摩根士丹利指出，这一利率低谷仍有进一步下行空间：一方面，当前水平高于 2025 年 4 月的 2.87% 和 2024 年 9 月的 2.69%；另一方面，美联储经济学家预计最终联邦基金利率可能降至 2.625%（而非市场 当前定价的 3%），核心原因是美国移民政策收紧将放缓劳动力市场增长，进而压低潜在经济增速与均 衡利率（r*）。 美债收益率与联邦基金利率的联动关系将持续主导债市行情。报告数据显示，二者在 2025 年 4 月短暂 偏离后已重新同步。 （市场隐含联邦基金利率低谷与 10 年期美债收益率） 摩根士丹利在最新全球宏观策略报告《At the Edge of Hot Summer, At the Threshold of a Larger Fall》中指 出，随着美联储降息窗口逐步临近，今年秋季美债收益率与美元指数有望双双创下年内新低，为投资者 提供明确的布局方向。 一、宏观主线：美联储降息成核心驱动力，美债收益率 ...

今年以来，全球资产价格正经历一轮重要调整：10年期美国国债收益率较年内高点回落超50个基点，美 元指数(DXY)较高点下跌超 10%。不过在夏季行情中，这两大资产的下行势头均遇阻。 摩根士丹利在最新全球宏观策略报告《At the Edge of Hot Summer, At the Threshold of a Larger Fall》中指 出，随着美联储降息窗口逐步临近，今年秋季美债收益率与美元指数有望双双创下年内新低，为投资者 提供明确的布局方向。 一、宏观主线：美联储降息成核心驱动力，美债收益率或跌破4% 美联储政策转向是下半年全球资产定价的核心逻辑。 在今年杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔释放明确鸽派信号，称"当前政策处于限制性区 间，经济前景与风险平衡可能需要调整政策立场"，直接推动市场隐含的联邦基金利率低谷跌破3%(目 前为2.94%)。 摩根士丹利指出，这一利率低谷仍有进一步下行空间：一方面，当前水平高于2025年4月的2.87%和 2024年9月的2.69%；另一方面，美联储经济学家预计最终联邦基金利率可能降至2.625%(而非市场当前 定价的3%)，核心原因是美国移民政策收紧将放缓 ...

当你正准备睡前放松，却收到一条推送通知："特朗普称他正在解雇一名美联储理事。"在深夜时分，这 条消息实在难以消化。 这会惹恼外国投资者，导致他们抛售你投资组合中的美国资产吗？这正是4月份特朗普呼吁解雇美联储 主席鲍威尔后所发生的事情。道琼斯指数在一天之内暴跌了972点。 这是否也会引发新一轮的通胀？长期以来，美联储观察家们一直对此感到担忧，他们曾警告不要过快地 放松经济。 但情况不必如此，下面的这一份市场信号清单，可以用以观察并决定自己到底该有多担心。 美元 美元现在是货币世界的"老大"，同时也是一个衡量外国投资者对美国感觉如何的良好晴雨表。道理很简 单：如果他们不喜欢事态的发展方向，他们就会减少风险敞口。 这正是本周二在解雇库克事件中所发生的情况，美元指数一度下跌0.3%。同样的事情也发生在4月21日 的"鲍威尔门"事件中，当时美元下跌了1%。 30年期美国国债收益率 虽然美元是一个很好的情绪指标，但这个指标更多地是关于通胀预期。 如果投资者开始对美国的长期前景感到警惕，他们可能会开始抛售长期政府债券，这反过来又会推高收 益率。 此外，如果通胀真的出现，美联储对抗它的最佳武器就是加息，美债收益率也会因预期加 ...

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 多位经济学家警告，全球发达经济体或正在进入财政主导的时代。分析师表示，这意味着央行独立性遭遇侵蚀，被迫服 务于财政压力，而全球性的这种趋势可能推高通胀，引发金融风险，拖累经济增长。 所谓财政主导指的是，财政需求决定货币政策的状态。2008年全球金融危机后，主要国家进行了十数年的财政刺激政 策，再加上人口老龄化、国防支出和能源转型补贴，以及新冠疫情，这一系列因素导致多国政府的资产负债率大幅飙 升。与此同时，利率正处于多年来的高水平，加剧了偿债负担，导致各国政府希望央行放松货币政策，来应对创纪录的 主权债务。 在这些国家中，表现最为突出的无疑是美国。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普自年初再次上台以来不断施压美联储降息以配合 其宽松的财政政策，并多次威胁要解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。上个月他还表示，美联储基准利率应比目前 4.25%-4.50%的区间低3个百分点，这样每年可节省1万亿美元的利息成本。 除了发发牢骚，特朗普还将手伸进了美联储。当地时间周一他在社交媒体高调宣布，解除美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）的职务"立即生效"，如果特朗普成功罢免库克，将创下美国历史先例——此前从未有在任美 ...

花旗策略师Jason Williams在一份报告中说，花旗略微更新了对美国国债年底收益率水平的部分预测， 但对长期以来对10年期国债收益率的预测很有信心。他说，该机构仍预计10年期美国国债收益率年底将 达到4.10%的水平，与去年以来的预测保持一致。然而，花旗适度更新了其他基准点，以更好地符合其 对2026年更陡峭的曲线和更低的政策利率预期的看法。花旗对两年期美国国债收益率的新基本预测为 3.50%；五年期国债收益率为3.65%，30年期国债收益率为4.70%。 ...

本次30年期国债拍卖的投标倍数为2.27，是2023年11月以来最低，且远低于近六次拍卖的平均水平。衡 量海外需求的间接认购比例降至59.5%，创下5月以来的最低水平，也是自2021年以来的第二低。衡量 美国国内需求的直接认购比例也降至23.03%，低于上月和近六次拍卖的平均水平。一级交易商获配比 例升至2024年8月以来最高，凸显实际需求不足。 本周美国国债拍卖结果持续不佳，本周最后一场有息美国国债拍卖，即30年期国债拍卖结果尤为糟糕。 30年期国债拍卖的得标利率高于预发行收益率，出现一年来最大的尾部利差，表明需求疲软。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure from President Trump on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which has led to significant market reactions and a shift in investment strategies, particularly regarding U.S. Treasury bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Strategies - Following rumors of Trump's potential dismissal of Powell, markets experienced volatility, prompting analysts to recommend buying two-year U.S. Treasuries while selling ten-year Treasuries, anticipating a shift in monetary policy [1][3]. - The "Powell hedge" strategy aligns with investors' long-held positions, benefiting from the widening gap between short-term and long-term yields [5][6]. - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for inflation due to loose monetary policy have led to increased interest in "steepening trades" [5][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Economic indicators suggest a slowdown in U.S. growth, with rising debt and deficits, which supports the case for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6][13]. - The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has risen to 2.42%, indicating growing inflation expectations among investors [10][11]. - Experts predict a high probability (over 90%) of a rate cut in September, while the likelihood of a cut in July remains low (around 30%) [13]. Group 3: Legal and Political Context - Most Wall Street professionals believe Trump would face legal challenges if he attempted to dismiss Powell, complicating the situation [14][19]. - The legal interpretation of "for cause" in the Federal Reserve Act remains uncertain, as it has never been tested in court, creating a legal gray area [17][18]. - Market reactions indicate skepticism about Trump's ability to dismiss Powell, with significant fluctuations in bond yields and currency values following related news [19].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market experienced a significant sell-off, particularly in long-term bonds, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising to nearly 5.02%, the highest level since May 23 [1][3] - The surge in yields was primarily driven by recent inflation data, with the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 0.3% month-over-month, marking the largest single-month increase this year, and the year-over-year inflation rate rising from 2.4% to 2.7% [3] - The rise in long-term Treasury yields above 5% typically indicates higher borrowing costs, affecting everything from mortgage rates to corporate bond issuance [3] Group 2 - The bond market's adjustment is altering expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policies, with market participants now anticipating that the Fed may need to maintain higher rates for a longer period [3] - On the same day, not only did the 30-year and 20-year Treasury yields surpass 5%, but the 3-month Treasury bill yield also rose to 4.345% [4] - The sell-off in the bond market led to declines in most sectors of the U.S. stock market, with the Dow Jones down 0.98% and the S&P 500 down 0.40%, while only large tech stocks showed relative strength with a slight increase in the Nasdaq [4]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices have risen for the second consecutive day, reaching $3338.48 per ounce with a 1.08% increase, driven by investor optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year [1] - The U.S. Treasury market has experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 4.9 basis points to 4.234% and the 30-year yield decreasing by 5.5 basis points to 4.792%, reflecting market expectations for upcoming economic data and Fed easing policies [2] - The Federal Funds futures market indicates a 94% probability of a rate cut in September and a 21% chance in July, suggesting strong market sentiment towards monetary easing [2] Group 2 - The bond market's reaction to Trump's tax and spending bill has been relatively muted, but Senate deliberations on the bill may lead to further volatility, potentially increasing national debt and long-term yields, which could exert pressure on gold prices [2] - Short-term market conditions remain favorable for gold prices due to strong expectations for rate cuts and a weakening dollar [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are approaching upper resistance levels, with a significant trading range identified between 3555 and 3266, suggesting a potential strategy to wait for resistance points to short [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department reported that investment funds purchased $40.967 billion in 3-year U.S. Treasury bonds during the latest biweekly reporting period, down from $43.185 billion the previous month [1] - Investment funds bought $16.295 billion in 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, a decrease from $17.763 billion last month [1] - Purchases of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds by investment funds amounted to $29.07 billion, slightly up from $28.942 billion the previous month [1] Group 2 - Foreign investors bought $6.35 billion in 3-year U.S. Treasury bonds, an increase from $5.552 billion last month [1] - Foreign purchases of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds totaled $5.293 billion, down from $7.875 billion the previous month [1] - Foreign investors acquired $2.518 billion in 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, a decrease from $3.006 billion last month [1]