智通财经APP注意到，美国国债在2026年的第一个交易日下跌，其中30年期国债收益率升至去年9月初以来的最高水平，原因是市场对美国增长前景的乐观 情绪削弱了对避险资产的需求。 30年期美债收益率一度攀升4个基点，达到 4.88%；10年期美债收益率则攀升2个基点，至 4.19%。在此之前，数据显示美国上周初请失业金人数降至今年以 来的最低水平之一。 星展银行固定收益策略师 Eugene Leow 表示："长端收益率的震荡走高可能反映了对美国经济乐观情绪的增强，这或许在股市中也得到了呼应。" 澳大利亚债券同样下跌，由于市场推测大宗商品价格上涨将增强该国的增长前景，3年期和10年期国债收益率均上升了约9个基点。澳元兑美元一度上涨 0.5%，表现优于十国集团(G10)中的其他货币。 Lombard Odier 策略师 Homin Lee 表示："今日澳元和利率的波动，部分反映了债券投资者在可能录得增长的美国12月非农就业数据公布前的谨慎仓位。全球 金属贸易市场热度的扩大也在助力这一动力。" 德国和法国的长效期国债在开盘时也录得下跌。 ...

来源：智通财经 智通财经12月24日讯（编辑 潇湘）随着2025年步入尾声，如果要盘点过去一年中表现最为"神奇"的资产，那么30年期美国国债或许足以占据一席之地…… 诚然，其涨幅远不及AI概念股或黄金白银那样惊人表现。事实上，今年30年期美国国债的价格甚至都未见上涨。 但其"神奇"的地方或许也恰恰在此——考虑到过去12个月所经历的动荡，它本应遭受重创。然而截至本文撰稿时，它正朝着与年初几乎持平的水平进行年度 收官，仅此一点就足以堪称非凡。 我们可以先来思考这么几个问题： 假如你回到今年1月1日并被告知，黄金将飙升近70%、突破每盎司4400美元，华尔街将迎来四分之一个世纪以来最大的科技繁荣，且金融条件将 是三年来最宽松的，你可能很快就会脑补出长期债券收益率上升（价格下跌）的场景…… 如果你还被告知，美国通胀将在未来一年持续高于目标水平，美元将暴跌近10%，美债的"期限溢价"将升至十多年来的最高水平，而央行独立性 这一曾被视为神圣不可侵犯的观念，将因特朗普政府对美联储的持续攻击而几近崩溃，又会怎样？ 若这还不够，那再加上特朗普的"大而美法案"将在未来十年推高数万亿美元预算赤字，助推"美元贬值"交易呢？是不是彻底 ...

在美联储降息、通胀压力缓和以及劳动力市场放缓的共同推动下，债券市场有望以近五年来最佳表现为 2025年画上句号。不过，多位市场人士提醒，进入2026年后，债券的回报空间可能不及今年。 智通财经获悉，数据显示，截至周四，美国综合债券指数2025年累计回报已超过7%。该指数覆盖美国 国债、政府相关债券、公司债以及抵押贷款支持证券和资产支持证券。相比之下，该指数在2024年的回 报率仅为1.25%，2023年为5.5%。这一轮反弹发生在债券投资者仍努力走出历史性低谷之后，2022年， 美联储为遏制通胀实施近40年来最快的加息周期，导致该指数当年下跌逾13%，创下有记录以来最差表 现。 尽管债券价格此后收复了部分失地，市场普遍认为，2025年的强劲势头未必能够完全延续到2026年。一 方面，部分投资者对美联储在2026年能否继续大幅降息持怀疑态度；另一方面，美国国债收益率今年已 明显下行，使得当前入场买入债券的价格吸引力下降。由于债券价格与收益率呈反向关系，收益率下行 意味着价格已被推高。 以10年期美国国债收益率为例，这一影响房贷、汽车贷款、公司融资成本以及政府借款成本的重要基准 收益率，已从今年1月的约4.58% ...

长期美国国债下跌，30年期收益率升至自9月初以来最高水平，本周美联储降息后货币政策立场逐步反 映至债市中。 30年期收益率一度上涨6个基点至4.86%，创9月5日以来最高水平，本周累计上涨约5个基点。两年期国 债收益率基本持平，较前周略微下跌。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周在利率会议后举行的新闻发布会上留下了进一步降息的可能性，这一点 出乎市场意料。美国银行的经济学家称其为"意外的鸽式降息"。 对明年美联储将进一步降息的预期推动短期国债收益率走低，而长期债券则反映出高通胀预期。芝加哥 联储行长Austan Goolsbee和堪萨斯城联储行长Jeff Schmid在周五发布的声明中提到，通胀担忧促使他们 反对周三降行动，支持维持利率不变。 宏观策略师Edward Harrison认为："芝加哥联储行长Austan Goolsbee表示，他最近的降息异议是基于对 通胀的担忧。考虑到交易员仍预计2026年将进行两次幅度25基点的降息，Goolsbee的评论指向国债下行 风险。" 此外，明年将获得投票权的克利夫兰联储行长Beth Hammack重申有关通胀支持暂缓降息的观点。 施罗德投资管理公司的投资组合经理Neil ...

作者：龙玥，华尔街见闻 自2024年9月美联储启动本轮降息以来，已累计将基准利率下调1.5个百分点至3.75%-4%的区间。然而， 市场的反应却出人意料。同期，10年期美国国债收益率攀升了近0.5个百分点至4.1%，而30年期国债收 益率的涨幅更是超过了0.8个百分点。 这一走势直接挑战了传统的市场逻辑，即美联储降息通常会引导长期利率下行。它也与美国总统特朗普 的预期相悖，后者认为更快的降息将有效拉低抵押贷款、信用卡等各类贷款利率。市场的反常表现意味 着，投资者对利率前景的判断与美联储存在巨大分歧。 当下，对于这种分歧的解读，市场观点众说纷纭。乐观者认为这是经济将避免衰退的信心体现；中性观 点则视其为市场利率回归2008年金融危机前常态的标志；而悲观者则担忧，这反映了"债券义警"的回 归，他们对美国不断膨胀的国家债务和潜在的通胀风险投下了不信任票。 罕见背离：降息周期下的收益率上行 通常情况下，当美联储调整其短期政策利率时，长期债券收益率会随之变动。然而，本轮周期的表现却 打破了常规。 首先，由于美联储在后疫情时代为遏制通胀而采取的加息力度空前，市场在美联储真正开始降息前，早 已提前消化了政策转向的预期，导致 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased by 3.9 basis points, reaching 4.625% [1] Group 1 - The rise in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield indicates a shift in investor sentiment and potential implications for long-term borrowing costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields, the implications for the stock market, and the potential impact of economic policies under President Trump, highlighting concerns about inflation and market reactions to interest rate expectations [4][9][10]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The U.S. bond market has experienced significant sell-offs, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.73%, approaching the 5% peak from October 2023 [4]. - The 20-year Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, while the 30-year yield stands at 4.96% [4]. - The rise in yields is attributed to inflation concerns and a reassessment of interest rate expectations, particularly in light of potential fiscal policies under the incoming Trump administration [9][10]. Group 2: Stock Market Implications - Analysts suggest that the stock market may face further declines, with the potential for significant challenges in the next six months due to rising bond yields [7][20]. - The correlation between stock and bond yields has turned negative, indicating that continued increases in bond yields could negatively impact stock valuations [20][23]. - Despite rising yields, the stock market has shown relative stability, which may indicate increased risk of a downturn if negative economic news emerges [20][21]. Group 3: Economic Policy Concerns - Nobel laureate Paul Krugman expresses concerns that market reactions to Trump's potential economic policies could lead to inflationary pressures, affecting long-term interest rates [11][14]. - Krugman warns that if Trump implements his proposed policies, the Federal Reserve may need to halt interest rate cuts, potentially leading to further increases in rates [14][15]. - Janet Yellen emphasizes the importance of responsible fiscal management to avoid the return of "bond vigilantes," who could pressure the government to change policies through market reactions [25][26].

Core Insights - Financial markets have exhibited unusual behavior following the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which hinted at potential rate cuts [1] - Gold has emerged as a significant safe haven asset, experiencing a price increase of nearly 10% and closing at $3,680.70 per ounce [2] - The bond market's reaction has been unexpected, with the 30-year Treasury yield not falling immediately after Powell's speech, only declining after a weak jobs report [3] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 and commodity prices did not respond as anticipated to the prospect of rate cuts, contrasting with the expected market behavior [2] - The dollar index has remained stable, returning to pre-speech levels, which is considered counterintuitive given the expectations for Fed easing [3] - Bitcoin's volatility has led to a sell-off post-Jackson Hole, but it has also returned to its starting point, diverging from its previous behavior as a risk asset [4] Global Economic Factors - Concerns over a potential debt crisis in France and the U.K. have contributed to rising global bond yields, with political gridlock in France affecting fiscal discipline [4] - Fitch's downgrade of France's credit rating from AA- to A+ reflects the challenges in achieving fiscal discipline, potentially driving investors towards safe-haven assets like the dollar [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in global long-term bond yields is driven by overlapping factors including fiscal concerns, monetary policy, and supply-demand dynamics related to term premium effects [1][6]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - A global bond sell-off has been observed, particularly affecting long-term bonds, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 5% for the first time since July [3]. - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield reached a historic high of 3.286%, reflecting a cumulative increase of 100 basis points this year due to high inflation and low real interest rates [3]. - The 30-year UK bond yield hit its highest level since 1998 at 5.75%, while the 30-year French bond yield also exceeded levels seen in 2008 [3][6]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Yield Increases - Analysts indicate that the sell-off is driven by concerns over fiscal and monetary policies, compounded by political risks in various countries [6][8]. - The increase in bond issuance and a decline in traditional long-bond buyers have removed previous mechanisms that helped lower yields [7]. - The market is increasingly skeptical about central banks' ability to control inflation in the medium term, particularly regarding the independence of central banks like the Federal Reserve [6][7]. Group 3: Political and Economic Risks - The UK faces a £35 billion budget deficit, raising investor concerns about fiscal policy effectiveness [8]. - France is attempting to implement a $51 billion budget cut to curb its deficit, but political divisions complicate these efforts [8]. - Japan's political instability, highlighted by resignations within the ruling party, raises concerns about future fiscal policies and potential increases in the fiscal deficit [8][9]. Group 4: Seasonal and Technical Factors - Historical data shows that September is typically a poor month for long-term bonds, with a median decline of 2% over the past decade [10]. - Technical liquidity factors, including significant cash withdrawals from the banking system, are expected to impact the bond market in September [10].

Market Overview - Major European stock indices experienced declines, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.59% to 9142.01 points, the French CAC 40 down 0.42% to 7675.69 points, and the German DAX down 1.69% to 23630.09 points [1] - The global bond market saw widespread declines, particularly in long-term bonds, with the UK 30-year government bond yield surpassing 5.69%, the highest level since 1998, and the US 30-year bond yield reaching 4.97%, the highest since July [3] Currency Market - The British pound depreciated significantly against the US dollar, dropping over 1.5% to 1.334, with the dollar index rising by 0.49% to 98.15 [3] - The pound's exchange rate against the dollar was reported at 1.34065, reflecting a decline of 1.03% [4] Economic Concerns - The volatility in financial markets is attributed to concerns over the UK's inflation rate, high borrowing levels, and slow economic growth [3] - The UK financial market has been disrupted by fiscal challenges throughout the year, with a notable "triple whammy" in July when the bond market experienced significant fluctuations [5] Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The UK government's abrupt reversal on welfare cuts in July was a key factor in the market turmoil, leading to potential political resistance against future spending cuts or tax increases [6] - Analysts express concerns about a "vicious cycle" where rising debt worries lead to increased yields, further exacerbating the debt situation [6] - The UK Debt Management Office has reduced the sale of long-term securities to record lows, indicating weakened demand from traditional buyers [6] Government Response - UK Prime Minister Starmer announced cabinet reshuffles to improve government image and gain better control over economic policy [6] - Analysts warn that if the government fails to restore confidence in public finances, it may face a crisis similar to the "mini-budget" fallout experienced three years ago [7]