以下文章来源于华尔街见闻 ，作者见闻君 周三，10 年期美国国债收益率一度升至 4.73%，并逼近 2023 年 10 月创下的 5% 峰值，随后回落。20年期美债收益率已经率先突破5%，30年期美 债收益率达到4.96%。 华尔街见闻 . 华尔街见闻App是中国领先的金融信息和商业资讯提供商，为用户甄选国内和全球重要资讯，7*24小时全年不间断。 来源 | 华尔街见闻 全球债券市场近日持续遭遇大规模抛售，收益率快速攀升。 这一走势与2023年的情况相似，当时美国股市大幅下跌。有分析指出， 这次股市还有进一步下跌空间， 美股在未来六个月内可能面临严峻挑战。 美银认为， 如果美债收益率突破5%，投资者或将重新评估风险资产的估值，导致股市承压。 那么问题来了，美联储进入降息周期，美债收益率却大幅飙升，市场到底在定价什么？ 简单来说， 通胀焦虑促使交易员们降低了对美联储和英国央行今年降息的预期。 比如，即将卸任的美国财长耶伦就认为，拜登的抗疫支出可能"有点"推升通胀，经济比预期强劲导致市场的利率预期重新定价调整，是这轮美债抛 售的推手。她还表示， 不愿看到"债券卫士"卷土重来。 与此同时，市场正在权衡美国当选总统特 ...

Core Insights - Financial markets have exhibited unusual behavior following the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which hinted at potential rate cuts [1] - Gold has emerged as a significant safe haven asset, experiencing a price increase of nearly 10% and closing at $3,680.70 per ounce [2] - The bond market's reaction has been unexpected, with the 30-year Treasury yield not falling immediately after Powell's speech, only declining after a weak jobs report [3] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 and commodity prices did not respond as anticipated to the prospect of rate cuts, contrasting with the expected market behavior [2] - The dollar index has remained stable, returning to pre-speech levels, which is considered counterintuitive given the expectations for Fed easing [3] - Bitcoin's volatility has led to a sell-off post-Jackson Hole, but it has also returned to its starting point, diverging from its previous behavior as a risk asset [4] Global Economic Factors - Concerns over a potential debt crisis in France and the U.K. have contributed to rising global bond yields, with political gridlock in France affecting fiscal discipline [4] - Fitch's downgrade of France's credit rating from AA- to A+ reflects the challenges in achieving fiscal discipline, potentially driving investors towards safe-haven assets like the dollar [5]

欧美国债连续两日遭抛售，陡峭化交易流行 周三，30年期美国国债收益率自7月以来首次突破5%。30年期日本国债收益率创下历史新高3.286%，今 年以来因高通胀、低实际利率和政治不确定性已累计上涨100个基点。20年期日债收益率也达到1999年 以来最高水平，至2.695%，年内累计上升80个基点。 戈尔特曼表示，全球长期债券收益率近期的攀升，似乎有三个重叠的驱动因素：财政担忧、货币政策和 供需动态等期限溢价效应。 今年以来，全球债市始终"坎坷"。本周二，全球性的债券抛售潮，尤其是对长债的抛售重启再次席卷美 英德法日等各大发达经济体，这一抛售延续到了周三。30年期美债收益率重返5%，日债期限溢价创历 史新高，欧洲债券收益率也创数十年来最高点。 分析师表示，全球长期借贷成本再次面临压力，在一定程度上是由于投资者对许多主要经济体的财政和 货币政策路径均感到忧虑。 30年期英国国债收益率周二达到1998年以来的最高水平升至5.75%，周三继续攀升,未来几个月英国将公 布备受期待的预算案。 30年期法国国债收益率也突破了2008年的水平。连今年稍早始终受益于避险情绪的德国国债也加入了暴 跌行列，30年期德国国债收益率创 ...

Market Overview - Major European stock indices experienced declines, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.59% to 9142.01 points, the French CAC 40 down 0.42% to 7675.69 points, and the German DAX down 1.69% to 23630.09 points [1] - The global bond market saw widespread declines, particularly in long-term bonds, with the UK 30-year government bond yield surpassing 5.69%, the highest level since 1998, and the US 30-year bond yield reaching 4.97%, the highest since July [3] Currency Market - The British pound depreciated significantly against the US dollar, dropping over 1.5% to 1.334, with the dollar index rising by 0.49% to 98.15 [3] - The pound's exchange rate against the dollar was reported at 1.34065, reflecting a decline of 1.03% [4] Economic Concerns - The volatility in financial markets is attributed to concerns over the UK's inflation rate, high borrowing levels, and slow economic growth [3] - The UK financial market has been disrupted by fiscal challenges throughout the year, with a notable "triple whammy" in July when the bond market experienced significant fluctuations [5] Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The UK government's abrupt reversal on welfare cuts in July was a key factor in the market turmoil, leading to potential political resistance against future spending cuts or tax increases [6] - Analysts express concerns about a "vicious cycle" where rising debt worries lead to increased yields, further exacerbating the debt situation [6] - The UK Debt Management Office has reduced the sale of long-term securities to record lows, indicating weakened demand from traditional buyers [6] Government Response - UK Prime Minister Starmer announced cabinet reshuffles to improve government image and gain better control over economic policy [6] - Analysts warn that if the government fails to restore confidence in public finances, it may face a crisis similar to the "mini-budget" fallout experienced three years ago [7]

没想到，9月2日傍晚，英国资产全线大跌！一起看看发生了什么事。 欧洲突发，股债汇三杀 2日下午，欧洲资产全线下跌。 其中，欧洲各国除了法国之外，股市全线跳水，美股盘前也大幅下挫。 美元指数直线上涨，英镑一度暴跌超1%，跌破1.34美元，为两个月来最大单日跌幅。欧元大跌。 | 美元指数 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 汇 DINIW | | | | | | | | 98.1895 +0.5133 +0.5255% | | | | | | | | 09-02 16:42:00 | | | | | | | | 今开 97.6811 | | 最高 | 98.3990 | 振幅 | 0.7953% | | | 昨北 97.6762 | | 最低 | 97.6222 | 波幅 | | 0.7768 | | 分时 | 王日 | 日K | 周K | 月K | 更多, | | | 最新:98.1895 +0.5133 +0.5255% | | | | | 分时成交 | | | 98.3990 | | | | 16:41 | | 98.206 ...

Market Overview - On September 2, European assets experienced a significant decline, with all markets dropping except for France's CAC40, which saw a slight increase of 0.05% [3][4] - The UK FTSE 100 fell by 0.39%, while the German DAX30 decreased by 0.92% [4] - The US stock futures also showed a downward trend, with the Nasdaq futures down by 0.61% and the S&P 500 futures down by 0.47% [4] Currency Movements - The US dollar index rose sharply, increasing by 0.5255% to 98.1895, marking a significant upward movement [5] - The British pound experienced a notable drop, falling over 1% to 1.3428, which represents its largest single-day decline in two months [4][6] - The euro also declined, trading at 1.1654, down 0.4697% [7] Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on 30-year UK government bonds reached its highest level since 1998, indicating rising concerns over the UK's fiscal situation [9] - The global bond market saw widespread declines, particularly in long-term bonds, with the 30-year US Treasury yield rising by 4 basis points to 4.97% [11] Economic Concerns - There are growing worries regarding the UK economic outlook, with pressure on the Chancellor to find ways to cut spending or raise taxes ahead of the autumn budget [14] - Analysts suggest that the UK may soon have to implement tax increases to maintain its self-imposed fiscal rules, as borrowing costs are critical to the country's financial operations [14][15] - The ongoing rise in bond yields is exacerbating the UK's debt situation, creating a vicious cycle of increasing debt concerns and rising yields [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts are the main driving force for global asset pricing in the second half of the year, with expectations that U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index may reach new lows [2][26] - The Federal Reserve's policy shift is highlighted as the central logic for global asset pricing, with indications that the federal funds rate may drop below 3%, and ultimately to 2.625% due to factors such as tightening immigration policies affecting labor market growth [2][4] - The relationship between U.S. Treasury yields and the federal funds rate is expected to dominate the bond market, with projections that if the federal funds rate falls below 2.69%, the 10-year Treasury yield could drop below 4% [4][6] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley recommends two core investment strategies: going long on U.S. Treasury durations and shorting the dollar, focusing on opportunities in both the bond and foreign exchange markets [10][11] - For U.S. Treasuries, the strategy includes going long on 5-year Treasury durations, which are expected to benefit from price increases during a yield decline cycle, and taking advantage of the steepening yield curve between 3-year and 30-year Treasuries [10][11] - In the foreign exchange market, the recommendation is to short the dollar while going long on the euro and yen, driven by the expectation that the Fed's rate cuts will exceed those of the European Central Bank [11][12] Group 3 - The report provides differentiated strategies for major economies, including focusing on yield curve flattening in the Eurozone and tactical strategies in the UK and Japan, reflecting the varying monetary policies and economic conditions [21][22][23] - In the Eurozone, the strategy involves entering into yield curve flattening trades and adjusting asset allocations based on updated yield targets for German bonds [21] - For the UK, the recommendation is to go long on short-term rates as the Bank of England approaches the end of its rate hike cycle, while in Japan, the strategy suggests buying 10-year Japanese bonds amid expectations of U.S. Treasury yield declines [22][23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve's shift towards interest rate cuts is the main driver for global asset pricing in the second half of the year, with expectations that U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index may reach new lows [2][24] - The Federal Reserve's policy shift is highlighted as the central logic for global asset pricing, with indications that the implied federal funds rate may drop below 3%, leading to a potential decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below 4% [2][4] - The report emphasizes the relationship between U.S. Treasury yields and the federal funds rate, suggesting that the two will continue to influence the bond market, with a forecasted decline in the federal deficit further supporting Treasury yields [2][6] Group 2 - The investment strategy proposed includes going long on U.S. Treasury durations and shorting the dollar, with specific recommendations to buy 5-year Treasury bonds and to take advantage of the steepening yield curve [10][11] - The report suggests a clear bearish stance on the dollar, recommending long positions in the euro and yen to hedge against dollar depreciation, supported by the anticipated divergence in interest rate movements between the U.S. and other economies [11][20] - The analysis of major economies indicates differentiated strategies, with specific recommendations for the Eurozone, the UK, and Japan, focusing on yield curve strategies and interest rate expectations [21][24]

Group 1 - The core message highlights concerns over potential market reactions to political events, specifically Trump's actions towards the Federal Reserve, which could lead to investor anxiety and asset sell-offs [1] - The dollar serves as a key indicator of foreign investor sentiment towards the U.S., with notable declines in the dollar index following significant political events [2] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is a critical measure of inflation expectations and investor confidence in the long-term outlook, with recent increases indicating rising concerns [3][4] Group 2 - U.S. stock markets are seen as a direct reflection of investor sentiment, with significant sell-offs indicating dissatisfaction with political developments; however, recent market behavior suggests a lack of immediate concern regarding Trump's actions [5]

Group 1 - Economists warn that developed economies may be entering an era of fiscal dominance, where fiscal demands dictate monetary policy, potentially leading to higher inflation and financial risks [1][4] - The U.S. is highlighted as a key example, with President Trump pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to align with his fiscal policies, suggesting a significant reduction in the benchmark rate [1][2] - Other developed economies, such as the EU and Germany, are also adopting expansive fiscal policies, with significant funding plans for defense and infrastructure [4][6] Group 2 - Japan exemplifies a long-standing fiscal dominance, with its central bank implementing policies that support fiscal stimulus [5] - Historical precedents indicate that extreme fiscal dominance can lead to severe inflation crises, as seen in Germany in the 1920s and Argentina in the late 20th century [6] - Concerns over persistent fiscal expansion and potential political interference in monetary policy are reflected in rising long-term bond yields in developed markets [6][7] Group 3 - The OECD projects that sovereign debt issuance among its member countries will reach a record $17 trillion by 2025, with rising debt servicing costs as a percentage of GDP [7] - The shift to fiscal dominance may create favorable conditions for emerging markets, making their assets more attractive in the current environment [8] - The combination of fiscal dominance and financial repression under the Trump administration is expected to negatively impact the U.S. dollar while benefiting commodities and certain sectors in the U.S. and Europe [8]