欧美国债连续两日遭抛售，陡峭化交易流行 周三，30年期美国国债收益率自7月以来首次突破5%。30年期日本国债收益率创下历史新高3.286%，今 年以来因高通胀、低实际利率和政治不确定性已累计上涨100个基点。20年期日债收益率也达到1999年 以来最高水平，至2.695%，年内累计上升80个基点。 戈尔特曼表示，全球长期债券收益率近期的攀升，似乎有三个重叠的驱动因素：财政担忧、货币政策和 供需动态等期限溢价效应。 今年以来，全球债市始终"坎坷"。本周二，全球性的债券抛售潮，尤其是对长债的抛售重启再次席卷美 英德法日等各大发达经济体，这一抛售延续到了周三。30年期美债收益率重返5%，日债期限溢价创历 史新高，欧洲债券收益率也创数十年来最高点。 分析师表示，全球长期借贷成本再次面临压力，在一定程度上是由于投资者对许多主要经济体的财政和 货币政策路径均感到忧虑。 30年期英国国债收益率周二达到1998年以来的最高水平升至5.75%，周三继续攀升,未来几个月英国将公 布备受期待的预算案。 30年期法国国债收益率也突破了2008年的水平。连今年稍早始终受益于避险情绪的德国国债也加入了暴 跌行列，30年期德国国债收益率创 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off in long-term government bonds in the US and Europe is driven by investor concerns over fiscal sustainability and central bank's ability to control inflation, compounded by seasonal liquidity tightening and term premium effects [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Long-term bond yields in the US, UK, Italy, and France have risen significantly, with the US 30-year bond yield increasing by 5.3 basis points to 4.97%, marking a multi-year high [1]. - The negative sentiment in the bond market has spilled over into the stock market, with major indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq experiencing declines of 0.69%, 0.55%, and 0.82% respectively [1]. - The sell-off in bonds has been linked to a historical context where previous fiscal policies and trade tensions have led to significant fluctuations in bond yields [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - OECD projects that sovereign debt issuance among its 38 member countries will reach a record $17 trillion by 2025, with the debt servicing cost as a percentage of GDP rising to 3.3% in 2024, up from 2.4% in 2021 [4]. - The US is particularly affected, with debt interest costs projected to reach 4.7% of GDP, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [4]. - Political instability in countries like France and the UK is causing investor anxiety, with discussions around potential IMF assistance emerging [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Seasonal liquidity tightening is identified as a contributing factor to the recent bond market downturn, as September typically sees increased bond issuance from governments and corporations, leading to supply-demand imbalances [6]. - The expectation of a strong US non-farm payroll report could influence market sentiment, with potential implications for Federal Reserve interest rate policies [6]. - Analysts suggest that the current rise in long-term bond yields may not be easily reversed, even with anticipated slight reductions in policy rates [7].