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工企盈利视角看中报利润
Tebon Securities· 2025-06-12 09:44
Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The "924" policy shift in 2024 significantly improved market risk appetite, leading to increased market activity and valuation recovery in certain sectors[2] - By 2025, the macro economy shows signs of stabilization, with corporate profits beginning to recover from the bottom[2] - Despite improvements, the current macro environment remains complex, leading to increased volatility in some assets[2] Group 2: Industrial Profit Analysis - From January to April 2025, industrial enterprises' profits shifted from decline to growth, with high-tech manufacturing profits increasing by 9.0% year-on-year, outperforming the overall industrial average by 7.6%[6] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises was 4.87% from January to April 2025, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year[7] - Equipment manufacturing remains a crucial support for profit growth, with a profit increase of 15.5% in the same period[10] Group 3: A-Share Market Predictions - A-shares are expected to reach a "profit bottom" in Q2 or Q3 2025, aligning with industrial profit trends[16] - The predicted cumulative profit growth rates for industrial enterprises in Q2, Q3, and Q4 2025 are 0.6%, 3.5%, and 3.3% respectively[16] - The upcoming mid-year reports for listed companies will be critical in assessing the effectiveness of the "924" policy and the resilience of the Chinese economy[31]