加密货币，集体跳水！ 9月22日下午，比特币、以太坊、Solana、艾达币、HYPE等加密货币突然直线大跳水。其中，以太坊一度跌超9%并跌破4100美元。 Coinglass数据显示，仅1个小时的时间，加密货币全网合约就爆仓了超10亿美元，其中97%为多单爆仓。24小时内，加密货币市场全网合约爆仓17亿美元，爆仓人数 超过40万人，其中超九成为多单爆仓。 有分析人士指出，美联储主席鲍威尔上周表态称，无需迅速调整利率，未来将通过"逐次会议评估"的方式决定是否降息，这意味着大幅宽松政策不太可能出台。市 场对美联储降息的热情逐渐消退，转而关注不确定的宏观经济环境。另外，美国政府"停摆"风险升高，也对加密货币市场形成打压。 美国政府或有停摆风险 周一美股盘前，加密货币概念股集体下跌，BMNR跌超7%，SharpLink Gaming跌近6%，Bullish跌超5%，Circle、Coinbase跌超3%，微策投资跌2.8%。 加密货币大跳水 北京时间9月22日下午，投机属性较强的加密货币市场，再度上演直线跳水行情。比特币一度跌超3%，最低下探至11.20万美元；以太坊一度跌超9%，最低下探至 4085美元；XRP、S ...

Group 1: Economic Environment - The current economic environment in the U.S. is markedly different from historical contexts, with systemic risks exacerbated by new government policy uncertainties and a growing fiscal deficit [1][2] - The U.S. economy is on the brink of a potential recession, characterized by a significant increase in public debt and financialization, creating a "perfect storm" scenario [1][2] Group 2: Structural Fiscal Weakness - The structural issues in U.S. fiscal policy are highlighted by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projecting a federal budget deficit of $1.9 trillion for FY2025, which is 6.2% of GDP, significantly above the historical average of 3.8% [2] - Federal government spending as a percentage of GDP has risen from 12% to 23.3% over the past 70 years, driven primarily by social security, Medicare, and net interest expenditures, while federal revenue has stagnated between 15% and 17% [2] Group 3: Economic "Over-Financialization" - The U.S. government's fiscal health is increasingly tied to stock market performance, with capital gains tax becoming a major revenue source, leading to significant revenue drops during market downturns [3] Group 4: Recession Dynamics - In the event of a recession, tax revenues could decline by 15%, reducing expected revenues for 2025 from $4.92 trillion to $4.2 trillion, while government spending could increase by 29%, leading to a potential deficit surge from $2 trillion to $4.5 trillion [4] - Economic contractions typically result in GDP declines of 4% to 5%, which would exacerbate the debt-to-GDP ratio, potentially exceeding 130% [4] Group 5: Labor Market and Social Pressure - A severe recession could raise the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 6%, reducing personal income tax revenues and increasing social security expenditures, while immigration policies may further strain labor supply and consumer spending [5] Group 6: Debt Crisis and Market Confidence - U.S. public debt as a percentage of GDP has escalated from 60% in 2007 to an estimated 98% in 2024, with projections suggesting it could reach 535% by the end of the century [6] - The relationship between rising debt levels and interest rates creates a "debt vicious cycle," where increased debt leads to higher interest payments, further expanding the deficit [7] Group 7: Policy Choices and Structural Challenges - Current policy measures may provide short-term relief but could exacerbate long-term structural risks, particularly through trade and immigration policies that may hinder economic growth [8] - The extension of tax cuts and potential cuts to social welfare programs could lead to increased deficits and reduced economic resilience [8]

欧洲主要经济体的长期国债收益率正加速攀升，英国、德国和法国30年期国债收益率均创下自金融危机以来甚至本世纪以来的新高，投资者对不 断扩大的财政赤字和政策不确定性反应强烈。 周二，英国30年期国债收益率升至5.72%，为1998年以来最高，德国和法国30年期国债收益率分别升至3.41%和4.51%，为2011年和2009年以来最 高水平。英镑兑美元大幅走弱，欧洲股市承压，市场避险情绪升温。 推动收益率上行的核心因素包括欧洲各国为应对地缘安全和经济复苏而大幅增加财政支出，法国和英国的政治动荡进一步加剧了市场对政策连贯 性的担忧。与此同时，投资者对通胀持续性和央行政策前景的疑虑，使得对长期债券的需求持续减弱。 分析人士警告，当前的"恶性循环"——债务担忧推高收益率，反过来又加重财政负担——可能对欧洲经济复苏和金融稳定构成实质性威胁。 政治动荡与财政困局交织，长债收益率飙升，市场信心承压 市场人士普遍认为，欧洲主要经济体的财政状况恶化和政治不确定性是导致收益率飙升的主因。 英国财政大臣Rachel Reeves面临350亿英镑的预算缺口，首相斯塔默刚刚进行内阁重组，但未能缓解投资者对财政前景的担忧。市场质疑财政政策 ...