（原标题：刚刚，开盘大涨！又一次见证历史） 10月7日，日本股市继续大涨，日经225指数一度突破48500关口，最新报48449.85，日内涨1.05%。 个股方面，藤仓大涨超7%，爱德万测试、软银集团、DISCO等跟涨。 美元兑日元汇率升至150.56日元。 消息面上，日本9月外汇储备为13413亿美元，前值13242亿美元。 日本8月所有家庭支出同比增长2.3%，预期增长1.2%，前值增长1.40%；环比增长0.6%，预期增长 0.1%，前值增长1.7%。 【导读】日本股市开盘大涨；黄金再创历史新高，纽约期金首破4000美元大关 中国基金报记者 李智 一起来关注下海外市场的最新情况。 日本股市开盘大涨 黄金期货触及4000美元整数大关 美国政府"停摆"危机持续，黄金再度大涨，纽约期金历史首次触及4000美元/盎司整数大关，年内大涨 逾50%。现货黄金报3973.56美元/盎司，同样创下历史新高。 消息面上，据央视新闻，美东时间10月6日，美国国会参议院对民主党提出的旨在结束政府"停摆"的拨 款法案进行表决，最终以45票赞成、50票反对，法案未获通过。 随后，参议院对共和党提出的临时拨款法案进行了投票表决。 ...

近期政策强预期依然压制债市情绪，机构赎回担忧仍在，市场利率再度面临关键点位挑战。上周初央行重启14 天期逆回购操作，显示出较强的跨节资金面呵护意愿，流动性转松支撑债市修复。但科技股持续走强，且市场 对年内出台第三轮逆周期调节政策的预期较高，机构有加速赎回债基的迹象，长端尤其是超长端债市跌幅放 大。理财子、银行自营、保险等机构债基净赎回规模处于1年来偏高水平，且季末时点临近，债基赎回的负反馈 或触发。10年期、30年期国债活跃券收益率一度分别上行至1.84%和2.14%。 从基本面情况看，实体融资需求偏弱、资金面合理充裕仍是债市的主要支撑，但以"反内卷"为主的一系列政策 逐步推进，宏观面积极持续施压债市情绪，债市定价持续偏离基本面。而随着公募基金销售新规落地时点的临 近，机构情绪偏谨慎，且年内银行等机构止盈需求尚未出清，债市调整压力加大。 图为央行持续净投放呵护流动性（单位：亿元） 从政策角度看，9月降息预期落空意味着当前政策框架仍将以财政和结构性政策为主，稳地产、扩消费、"反内 卷"等政策更为关键。当前经济矛盾集中在结构层面，短期降准降息落地的必要性不强。不过，宽信用诉求仍需 流动性的配合，央行重启14天期逆 ...

今天分享的是：2025混沌时刻 报告共计：20页 2025年9月债市：多空博弈激烈，市场处于"混沌时刻" 2025年9月中旬，国内债市迎来了多空力量激烈争夺定价权的关键阶段，整体呈现出"混沌时刻"的特征。以10年期国债为代表的 核心品种，利率运行箱体界限愈发清晰，当利率上行至1.80%时，多头买入力量显著增强；而当利率下行至1.75%时，空头势力 开始占据优势，多空双方围绕关键点位展开反复博弈。 当前市场交易主要聚焦两大核心逻辑：一是央行是否会重启买债操作，二是公募债基赎回费规则能否优化。从央行买债相关线 索来看，9月以来部分大型银行在中长久期利率债配置上出现明显动作，不仅净买入7-10年国债93亿元（此前已连续8个月净卖 出该品种），还同期净买入3-5年国债843亿元、7-10年政金债259亿元，二级买债偏好逐步向长久期品种倾斜。不过，类似的买 债行为在今年5-6月也曾出现，当时大行时隔多月重新在二级市场配置短债，市场一度猜想6月可能成为央行重启买债的起点， 事后却证实这只是银行内部止盈后再投资的需求，因此当前大行的操作能否与央行政策关联，仍缺乏明确结论。 公募债基赎回费优化问题同样备受关注。参考过往新规落 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the bond market has led to an expansion of the yield spread between ultra-long-term government bonds and 10-year government bonds, reaching a year-to-date high, but this trend is expected to stabilize with limited further expansion potential [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since mid-September, the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds has consistently remained above 30 basis points, peaking at 33.31 basis points on September 11 [1]. - The overall bond market has been adjusting, with ultra-long bonds showing relatively weaker performance, as the yield on 30-year government bonds did not experience significant downward movement despite the recovery in 10-year government bonds, which surpassed 1.8% [1][3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Yield Spread - The widening yield spread for ultra-long bonds is attributed to multiple factors, including market risk appetite, supply, and funding conditions. The rise in stock market sentiment has weakened bond market sentiment, leading to a corresponding adjustment in bond yields [3]. - Since May, there has been a peak in the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds, which has contributed to the widening of the yield spread due to increased supply expectations [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts from Zhongyou Securities predict that the yield spread for ultra-long bonds is unlikely to expand significantly, suggesting that it will not return to historical levels above 40 basis points prior to 2023 [5]. - The liquidity of ultra-long bonds is deemed crucial, and as long as liquidity remains stable, the yield spread is unlikely to revert to levels seen before 2024. Current liquidity conditions show no significant decline, maintaining a high turnover rate [5]. - The current high yield spread of 30 basis points between 30-year and 10-year government bonds indicates limited further adjustment space for ultra-long bonds, suggesting potential value for allocation and trading [5].

Group 1 - The market anticipates the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to restart government bond trading operations, leading to a rise in the 10-year government bond yield [1][3] - The yield on the 10-year government bond increased from 1.7895% to 1.795%, reflecting market volatility [3] - The PBOC has conducted a net purchase of 1 trillion yuan in government bonds from August to December 2024, providing crucial support for market liquidity [3] Group 2 - Economic data from August showed weaker-than-expected performance, particularly in infrastructure investment, indicating ongoing issues with domestic demand [4][5] - The bond market is expected to remain under pressure due to weak institutional sentiment, despite the potential for a recovery in the future [6] - Short-term market conditions may continue to exhibit volatility, with a cautious approach recommended for bond market participation [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. stock market environment is remarkably similar to the 1999 internet bubble, entering a liquidity-driven speculative phase [1][2] Market Sentiment and Economic Signals - Despite Moody's recession model indicating a 48% probability of recession in the next 12 months, market participants are focused on liquidity-driven trading rather than fundamentals [2][3] - There are mixed economic signals, with cyclical industries like shipping and real estate showing recessionary pressure, while sectors like services, healthcare, and technology continue to expand [3][11] Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The prevailing market sentiment is characterized by a belief that holding cash is less favorable due to currency devaluation, prompting consumers to spend more [3][4] - The transition from fear to "fear of missing out" (FOMO) is driving market behavior, with expectations of a significant market rally in the next 3-6 months [5][11] Trading Strategies - Recommended trading strategies include pair trading between growth and value stocks, such as going long on the Nasdaq 100 while shorting the Russell 2000 [7] - A macro-level strategy involves betting on a steepening yield curve, specifically through a "2s30s steepener" trade, which could be profitable regardless of economic conditions [9][11] Financial Environment and Market Behavior - The market's ability to overlook recession signals is primarily driven by liquidity, with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and fiscal stimulus providing ample support for corporate buybacks [11][12] - The market is shifting from quality assets to speculative investments, indicating a move towards pure speculation rather than fundamental investing [11][12]

Group 1 - The report analyzes the potential scenarios for U.S. Treasury yields following a 25 basis point rate cut, categorizing them into four scenarios: unexpected, normal digestion, fully anticipated, and less than expected [4][5] - In the "normal digestion" scenario, the 10-year Treasury yield typically experiences a stable period followed by a gradual increase of 7-10 basis points after one week, as market participants reassess long-term risk [5][6] - The report suggests that the current rate cut scenario is likely to replicate the "normal digestion" model, with the 10-year Treasury yield expected to remain around 4.06% in the short term [6][7] Group 2 - The September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate, maintaining the Fed's independence and signaling a shift from restrictive to neutral policy [7][8] - Economic forecasts indicate an improvement in GDP growth rates for 2025 and 2026, with expected rates rising from 1.4% to 1.6% and from 1.6% to 1.8%, respectively [9][10] - Inflation expectations have been adjusted, with the PCE inflation forecast for 2026 raised from 2.4% to 2.6%, reflecting anticipated upward pressure on prices [9][10]

Group 1 - The bond market is facing headwinds due to increased market risk appetite and institutional behavior, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising to 1.83% and 2.11% respectively [1] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to face significant upward resistance in the 1.80%-1.85% range, supported by increased market allocation and expectations of central bank operations [3][7] - Demand pressures remain, with weak financing needs and a reasonable liquidity environment providing support for the bond market [3][5] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic data shows a slow transmission of policy expectations to the macroeconomic fundamentals, with inflation levels at a low point and a slight decline in the year-on-year growth rate of social financing [4][5] - The core CPI has expanded for four consecutive months, indicating that price levels are still at a bottoming stage, while PPI's decline has narrowed, supported by industrial price increases [4] - The central bank's stance on maintaining liquidity remains unchanged, with significant reverse repo operations indicating a continued loose monetary policy to support economic recovery [5][6] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve supply-demand relationships and support PPI stabilization, although the pace of recovery is anticipated to be slow [4][6] - The bond market's pricing is primarily influenced by market risk appetite and institutional behavior, with concerns over bond fund redemptions persisting [7] - The overall trend in the bond yield curve is expected to remain steep, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the bond market despite potential short-term recovery [7]

Market Overview - The funding environment was tight at the beginning of the week but eased later, maintaining overall balance [1] - The bond market experienced fluctuations due to news regarding fund fee rate adjustments and potential cancellation of tax exemptions for bond funds, leading to a rise in yields [1][4] - The 10-year government bond yield surpassed 1.8%, reaching a new high since April, before retreating later in the week due to weak export and financial data, as well as rumors of the central bank restarting bond purchases [1][4] Yield Changes - As of September 12, 2025, the yields for various maturities changed as follows: 1-year (0.41BP), 2-year (2.14BP), 3-year (0.97BP), 5-year (0.18BP), 7-year (2.25BP), 10-year (4.1BP), 30-year (7.15BP), and 50-year (7.75BP) compared to September 5, 2025 [2][3] Bond Market Dynamics - On Monday, the bond market weakened due to new fund fee regulations, with the 10-year bond yield rising to 1.784% [4] - On Tuesday, significant redemptions in index bond funds led to a quick rise in yields, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.795% [4] - By Wednesday, the yield peaked at 1.8325% before slightly retreating to 1.815% [4] - On Thursday, rumors of the central bank's bond purchases helped restore market sentiment, causing yields to drop [4] - By Friday, the central bank announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, contributing to further yield declines [4] Government Bond Issuance - A total of 83 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 10,345.42 billion yuan, including 5,663.70 billion yuan in government bonds [8] - For the upcoming week (September 15-19, 2025), 69 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling 5,005.19 billion yuan [8] International Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury market saw a slight rebound after reaching multi-month lows, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.06% [9] - The U.S. August CPI rose by 2.9%, slightly above the previous value of 2.7%, while core CPI remained stable at 3.1% [10][12] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 12,645 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations last week, resulting in a net injection of 1,961 billion yuan [13] - An announcement was made for a 600 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation scheduled for September 15, 2025 [13] Economic Indicators - The consumer price index (CPI) in August remained stable, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [15] - The total social financing scale increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [16] Institutional Perspectives - Huazhong Securities noted that the bond market sentiment remains fragile, with potential opportunities for long-term investments despite current volatility [19] - Financial institutions suggest a "barbell" strategy for bond investments, focusing on medium to high-grade credit bonds in the short term and long-term government bonds [19]

Group 1 - The core issue this week revolves around whether Federal Reserve officials will intervene to curb market bets on sustained interest rate cuts starting next year [1] - Most investors anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision, with some even predicting a 50 basis point cut [3] - The market has extended its easing expectations through 2026, prompting investors to adjust asset allocations to mitigate potential recession risks [3] Group 2 - The prediction of a 50 basis point cut has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year benchmark yield at its lowest level since April [3] - The S&P 500 index is approaching historical highs, while the Nasdaq 100 index has been on a continuous rise, benefiting from easing expectations [3] - The U.S. dollar has weakened due to market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the dollar index failing to rebound effectively [3] Group 3 - Despite a decrease from previous peaks, U.S. inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with key inflation indicators not reaching target ranges [3] - Adjustments in tariff policies have kept costs of certain imported goods high, contributing to persistent cost pressures in manufacturing and other sectors [3] - Various factors could lead to changes in the rate cut plans [3] Group 4 - Bond portfolio manager McIntyre expects a 25 basis point cut this week, emphasizing the importance of labor market conditions over inflation issues in the policy statement [4] - McIntyre has begun adjusting his investment portfolio by increasing bond holdings, particularly in 30-year Treasuries [4] - The market is particularly focused on employment concerns, with expectations of a significant volatility in the S&P 500 index around the Federal Reserve meeting [4] Group 5 - Concerns arise regarding Trump's economic advisor Milan potentially receiving a Federal Reserve Board appointment before the decision, which may influence the independence of the Fed's decision-making [4] - If the funds that entered the market due to rate cut expectations do not receive further easing signals, they may withdraw, putting short-term pressure on the stock market [4]