Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite fluctuating tariff-related news, the current trade developments align with expectations, with a projected 30% tariff on China and 10% on other regions, maintaining an effective tariff level around 12% [1] - Economic uncertainty persists, but some downward risks have been controlled earlier, leading to a reduced risk of recession by 2025 [1] - The company maintains a positive outlook on the stock market, particularly focusing on the financial sectors in the US and Europe [1] Group 2 - The company holds a neutral stance on government bonds globally, noting that while yields have risen and valuations improved, concerns remain due to rising US debt levels and ongoing inflation risks [1] - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing will be less than currently reflected in the market [1] - The company continues to favor gold for portfolio diversification and holds a bearish view on the US dollar, favoring the euro and emerging market local currency bonds [1] Group 3 - Global crude oil supply is increasing, which may lead to an oversupply in the market and put pressure on oil prices in 2025, prompting a neutral stance from the company [2] - The company emphasizes the need to monitor potential risks from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that could disrupt oil supply [2] - Overall, the company believes that the risks of cyclical economic downturns are largely controlled, while the sustainability of debt levels remains a key concern [2]