Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite fluctuating tariff-related news, the current trade developments align with expectations, with a projected 30% tariff on China and 10% on other regions, maintaining an effective tariff level around 12% [1] - Economic uncertainty persists, but some downward risks have been controlled earlier, leading to a reduced risk of recession by 2025 [1] - The company maintains a positive outlook on the stock market, particularly focusing on the financial sectors in the US and Europe [1] Group 2 - The company holds a neutral stance on government bonds globally, noting that while yields have risen and valuations improved, concerns remain due to rising US debt levels and ongoing inflation risks [1] - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing will be less than currently reflected in the market [1] - The company continues to favor gold for portfolio diversification and holds a bearish view on the US dollar, favoring the euro and emerging market local currency bonds [1] Group 3 - Global crude oil supply is increasing, which may lead to an oversupply in the market and put pressure on oil prices in 2025, prompting a neutral stance from the company [2] - The company emphasizes the need to monitor potential risks from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that could disrupt oil supply [2] - Overall, the company believes that the risks of cyclical economic downturns are largely controlled, while the sustainability of debt levels remains a key concern [2]

施罗德投资表示，虽然有关关税的消息仍然反复不定，但相对于"解放日"，目前的贸易发展局势与其基 本预期一致，即对中国征收30%关税、对其他地区征收10%，使实际关税水平维持在约12%。经济不确 定性持续存在，需密切观察企业将如何应对，但部分经济下行风险已较早前受控。因此，施罗德认为 2025年经济衰退的风险已有所减低。对股市维持正面看法，尤其聚焦美国及欧洲的金融业板块。 施罗德投资整体对各地政府债券维持中性立场。虽然收益率已上升且估值有所改善，但由于美国债务水 平上升及持续的通胀风险，中期而言担忧仍然存在。虽然市场预期与其展望更趋一致，但仍预期美联储 的货币政策放宽幅度、将低于目前市场所反映的水平。美国以外地区的通胀压力相对温和，相比美国国 债，继续看好德国国债的表现。 继续看好黄金作为分散投资组合的作用，并对美元持偏淡立场，主要反映于看好欧元及新兴市场本地货 币债券的表现。 由于现届美国政府政策走向难以预测，市场愈趋重视分散资产配置。投资者普遍持有较多美国资产，在 这情况下，预期风险意识将会提升，促使资金被重新分配，并流出美国市场。 而全球原油供应持续增加，将令市场出现供应过剩，并对2025年油价构成压力，因 ...