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债基2025Q3季报分析:显著的缩规模、降久期
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-11-06 13:28
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - In Q3 2025, the total asset net value of the four types of bond funds decreased by 252.7 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter, with a significant reduction in pure bond funds and an increase in secondary bond funds [1][8]. - The bond positions of the four types of bond funds decreased, while the stock positions increased slightly. The four types of bond funds significantly reduced their bond holdings in Q3 after increasing them in Q2 [2][17]. - In Q3, bond funds generally reduced leverage and shortened duration due to the weakening bond market and rising interest rates [3][24]. - All four types of bond funds significantly reduced their holdings of credit bonds and interest - rate bonds. The proportion of interest - rate bonds in medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased, and short - term pure bond funds significantly reduced their credit bond holdings [3][32]. - In Q3, pure bond funds and hybrid first - and second - tier bond funds reduced their holdings of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, and certificates of deposit, and increased their holdings of industrial bonds and urban investment bonds. The proportion of high - grade bonds in the heavy - position credit bonds of some bond funds changed [4][51]. Summary by Directory I. Bond Fund Scale Overall Decline, Pure Bond Fund Scale Decrease - In Q3 2025, the total asset net value of the four types of bond funds was 9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 252.7 billion yuan from the previous quarter. Medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased by 546.3 billion yuan to 5.91 trillion yuan, and short - term pure bond funds decreased by 198.5 billion yuan to 945.3 billion yuan. First - tier bond funds decreased by 3.1 billion yuan to 847.1 billion yuan, and second - tier bond funds increased by 495.3 billion yuan to 1.3 trillion yuan [1][8]. II. Asset Structure: Bond Positions Decline - The four types of bond funds increased their bond holdings by 800.7 billion yuan in Q2 and significantly reduced them by 827 billion yuan in Q3. By the end of Q3, medium - and long - term pure bond funds, short - term pure bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds held bond market values of 6.88 trillion yuan, 1 trillion yuan, 923.5 billion yuan, and 1.17 trillion yuan respectively, with the first three reducing their holdings and the second - tier bond funds increasing their holdings compared to Q2. - The proportion of bond market value to total asset value of the four types of bond funds decreased in Q3 compared to Q2, while the proportion of stock market value to total asset value of first - tier and second - tier bond funds increased [2][17]. III. Bond Funds Reduce Leverage and Shorten Duration - In Q3 2025, due to the good performance of the capital market and the flow of funds from fixed - income products to the equity market, the arithmetic average leverage ratios of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, short - term pure bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds decreased compared to Q2. - With the upward - trending bond market yields in Q3, all types of bond funds reduced their duration exposure. The average durations of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds, medium - and long - term credit bond funds, short - term interest - rate bond funds, and short - term credit bond funds decreased compared to Q2 [3][24]. IV. Bond Type Portfolio: Both Credit Bonds and Interest - Rate Bonds Are Reduced - The four types of bond funds significantly reduced their holdings of credit bonds by 359.2 billion yuan and interest - rate bonds by 415.1 billion yuan. By the end of Q3 2025, medium - and long - term pure bond funds reduced their holdings of credit bonds and interest - rate bonds compared to Q2, with the proportion of credit bonds increasing and that of interest - rate bonds decreasing. Short - term pure bond funds also reduced their holdings of credit bonds and interest - rate bonds. - First - and second - tier bond funds also reduced their holdings of credit bonds and interest - rate bonds. In terms of different bond types, different types of bond funds had different reduction or increase trends [3][32]. V. Heavy - Position Bond Analysis: High - Grade Proportion Declines - In Q3 2025, pure bond funds and hybrid first - and second - tier bond funds reduced their holdings of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, and certificates of deposit, and increased their holdings of industrial bonds and urban investment bonds. - Among the heavy - position credit bonds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds in medium - and long - term pure bond funds and short - term pure bond funds decreased, while the proportion of AA + - rated bonds increased. In first - tier and second - tier bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds increased. - In terms of regional distribution of heavy - position urban investment bonds, the top four provinces or regions with the most holdings in Q3 were Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hubei, and Hunan. Compared with Q2, Jiangsu increased its holdings, while Shandong, Anhui, Tianjin, and Jilin reduced their holdings [4][51][58].