一、停缩表：实在扛不住才松口 大家好，我是老陈瞰世界。 说白了，美联储这次喊停缩表，压根不是心甘情愿放水救市，纯粹是被市场和债务逼到墙角，没辙了才 松的口。 估计不少人听着 "准备金" 懵圈 —— 其实这玩意儿就是银行存放在央行的 "押金"，跟咱们家里留着应 急的现金一个意思，万一客户集中提款或者资金周转，全靠这笔钱撑着。 现在押金快见底了，银行放贷、互相拆借都得卡壳。 更吓人的是，银行之间的 "救命工具"（常备回购工具 SRF），11 月使用量直接飙到503.5 亿美元的历史 峰值，隔夜贷款利率（SOFR）一度冲到 4.22%，硬生生超过美联储 4% 的利率上限。 这就好比市面上的钱紧张到，银行之间借钱都得付 "高利贷"，普通企业想贷款扩大生产，老百姓想买 房买车贷点款，成本只会高得离谱。 再看美国那座压顶的债务大山：11 月 18 日国债总额突破38.2 万亿美元，一年就新增 2.2 万亿，光利息 支出就首次破 1.1 万亿美元，占财政收入快 20% 了。 巴菲特都忍不住预警，现在美国每收 10 块税，就有 2 块要拿去还利息，再过十年这个比例可能涨到 30%。 咱先掰扯最要命的流动性危机：银行的 "应急 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘盘中上涨，到收盘回落，大盘整体波动不大，还在4.3星。 中小盘股微涨。 红利等价值风格略微上涨。 创业板盘中一度上涨2%，不过到收盘变成了下跌。 港股略微上涨。 螺丝钉也收集了大家感兴趣的一些话题。 1. 债券有牛熊市吗？ 债券也是有牛熊市的，平均3-5年一轮。 例如： ·2016年4季度到2018年初，是债券熊市； 沪深300等大盘股微跌。 这周股票资产整体上涨，但债券市场出现比较大的波动。 ·2018年到2020年，是债券牛市； ·2020-2021年是债券熊市； ·2022-2024年是债券牛市； ·最近一年债券又比较低迷。 这里债券牛熊市，通常说的是长期纯债。 按照债券期限划分： ·1年以内短债 ·1-3年以内中短债 ·3-5年中债 ·5-10年长债 ·10年以上超长债 不过随着上涨，长期纯债的利息收益率，从2022年的3-4%上下，下降到2024年，最低只有1.6%上下。 试想一下，一个10年期的债券基金，每年利息回报只有1.6%；中间要承受百分之几的波动。 大多数投资者对这个回报是不太感兴趣的。 长期纯债的性价比也就比较低。 历史上，10年期国债，利 ...

此外，货币市场基金总销售上升近1.2倍至147.5亿美元，资金净流入29.4亿美元。不过，由于市场预期 环球央行将继续减息，货币市场基金自8月起资金净流出，结束去年初以来多月的净流入。 香港投资基金公会投资基金委员会联席主席黄德泰表示，11月基金销售表现继续有增无减，环球股债基 金表现继续良好，相信是受惠减息预期持续高企，风险偏好上升。 新华财经香港11月26日电（记者林迎楠）香港投资基金公会数据显示，今年前三季度香港零售基金总销 售额为826亿美元，同比上升35%，已经超越去年全年表现。香港投资基金公会26日表示，预计明年AI 题材将继续带来机遇，或会吸引更多投资者将资产配置到亚洲市场。 数据显示，前三季度股票基金总销售近168亿美元，同比上升21%，资金净流出4000万美元。债券基金 总销售上升24%至325.4亿美元，资金净流入108亿美元；混合资产基金总销售上升30%至172.4亿美元， 资金净流入17.3亿美元。 公会投资基金委员会联席主席邹建雄指出，虽然今年港股表现强劲，但前三季度股票基金仍为净流出， 主要反映第二季度避险情绪升温。他认为，环球央行减息，有助于带动经济基本面及企业盈利表现，加 上近 ...

Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations, but the labor market remains structurally unbalanced, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% [1] - The release of November non-farm payroll data has been postponed from December 5 to December 16, leading to significant fluctuations in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a current probability of approximately 69% for a cut in December [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - In October, the growth rate of general fiscal expenditure in China fell to -19.1% from 2.3% in September, influenced by a high base effect from the previous year [1] - The growth rate of general public budget expenditure decreased to -9.3% from 3.1% in September, while government fund expenditure dropped to -32.8% from 0.4% in September [1] - Tax revenue showed slight recovery, but non-tax revenue continued to weaken [1] Group 3: Market Strategy - In the bond market, the funding environment remains tight due to tax period disturbances, with the stock market adjusting but limited reaction in the bond market, which continues to experience narrow fluctuations [1] - The central bank governor indicated that the yield on 10-year government bonds remains around 1.75%-1.85%, with cautious sentiment in the bond market near key levels [1] - The expectation of a U.S. rate cut and skepticism regarding AI narratives have not triggered a significant decline in the bond market, indicating that a trend in interest rates may require substantial central bank bond purchases or a slowdown in the economy to prompt monetary policy easing [1] Group 4: A-share Market Outlook - Following a significant adjustment in the A-share market, current indicators suggest that market sentiment is at a low level, indicating limited downward space [2] - Uncertainties regarding overseas liquidity, rate cut expectations, and important internal meetings in December may prevent an immediate recovery in market risk appetite [2] - Structural pressures between market styles have eased, suggesting a gradual entry into a mid-term layout phase [2] Group 5: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is currently influenced by U.S. rate cut expectations, with a mid-term perspective indicating potential benefits from improved financial conditions and risk appetite [2] Group 6: Commodity Outlook - In the global economic context, initial rate cuts may not significantly boost oil demand, as supply continues to be released and inventories accumulate, keeping prices under pressure [2] - Gold prices have stabilized recently amid increased volatility in U.S. stocks driven by AI prospects, with a positive outlook for the medium to long term [2]

在存款利率下行的背景下，越来越多的年轻人在资产配置上探索更稳健的理财方式：不同于传统的婚 嫁"三金"即金镯子、金项链、金戒指，如今年轻人用货币基金、债券基金和黄金基金等"新三金"组合配 置，守住自己的"钱袋子"。 继一家村镇银行宣布取消5年期整存整取定期存款产品后，一些中小银行近日调整存款产品结构，"告 别"长期高息存款。与此同时，存款流向受到关注。 央行发布的2025年10月金融统计数据报告显示，前十个月人民币存款增加23.32万亿元。其中，住户存 款增加11.39万亿元，非金融企业存款增加4447亿元，财政性存款增加2.09万亿元，非银行业金融机构存 款增加6.66万亿元。结合今年前三季度金融统计数据报告中的相关数据即"住户存款增加12.73万亿 元""非银行业金融机构存款增加4.81万亿元"看，10月住户存款减少1.34万亿元，非银行业金融机构存款 则增加1.85万亿元。 业内人士认为，居民将银行里的储蓄存款转换成其他资产，本质上是居民资产重新配置的一种表 现。"统计数据背后有季节性因素，同时也反映出一些趋势性变化。"全国青联常委、中国金融学会常务 理事、中国银行业协会研究专委会主任杨赫告诉中青报·中青 ...

上世纪 80 年代末，日本被一场巨大的经济泡沫所笼罩。都说东京一座城市的地价总和可以买下整个美国土地， 虽然有夸张成分，但足以见得当时日本经济泡沫之严重。 随着 1990 年泡沫破灭，日本"失去的 30 年"也正式拉开帷幕。 在这一大背景下，日本投资者逐渐从"恐慌保守"转向"主动适应"，一部分为了安全感选择手持现金，一部分则热 衷"高收益"保险投资，还有一部分做起了海外资产配置，也就是那些"借便宜的钱，去买更高息的资产"的渡边太 太们。 直到 2020 年，日本这一窘境才有所好转。 对于中国，虽然当前的低利率环境确实是所有投资者不得不面临的难题，但好在我们有性价比较高的投资选项 ——债券基金或者固收 + 基金，尤其对风险厌恶型投资者们来说。 在我们筛选绩优债基产品的过程中，注意到了中欧基金固收投资业务实现了规模和业绩的双丰收，整体业务能力 迅速提升，正在成为当前固收市场上不容忽视的一股力量。 近期，我们和中欧基金固收团队几位核心人物做了次深聊，试图找到其长短期业绩优异背后的核心推动力。 云集一群"用长期业绩说话"的强将 2023 年，陈凯杨、雷志强、闫沛贤、邓欣雨、吕修磊、王申等行业知名强将陆续加盟中欧基金。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article introduces the book "Continuous Investment," emphasizing the importance of consistent investment without timing the market to achieve financial freedom through cash flow accumulation [2][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The book discusses two common behaviors associated with market timing: investing based on valuation and predicting future market trends [6][9]. - It highlights that systematic investment (定投) is inherently non-timing based, focusing on regular investment intervals regardless of market conditions [12][22]. - The article suggests maintaining discipline in systematic investment, recommending a comfortable frequency such as weekly or monthly [13]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Investor Behavior - The article notes that from 2022 to 2024, a prolonged bear market occurred, with over 94% of investors using active selection strategies remaining profitable by 2025 Q3 [14][15]. - It emphasizes the importance of sticking to a systematic investment plan during market downturns to mitigate panic and emotional decision-making [15]. - The article illustrates that during high market valuations, investors can adjust their systematic investment to include other asset classes, such as bonds, instead of equities [16][22]. Group 3: Real-World Examples - The article references Warren Buffett's investment strategy, which involves using cash flow from his numerous private companies to fund systematic investments, adjusting asset allocation based on market conditions [16]. - It compares investment strategies to grocery shopping, where purchasing decisions are based on current prices rather than fixed choices, advocating for flexibility in investment selections [20]. - The article concludes that long-term investment success is more about having capital available than about timing the market [21].

不过，就在这笔巨额奖金打到中奖者账户上的同时，银行后台的风控系统马上就会亮起红灯。届时，银行方面会在第一时间"盯"上你了。不过，中奖者也不 用担心，银行此举主要是为了打击洗钱活动。所以，你只要提供两分资料，就可以顺利通过审核。一份是彩票中心颁发的中奖证明。另一份是已经完税的个 人所得税凭证。而一旦通过银行审核 ，中奖者就可以自由支配这笔奖金了。 不过，也有网友提出担忧，中奖者手里有这么多奖金，银行员工会不会泄密？事实上，银行客户的信息都是最为机密的，若是银行员工把中奖者的信息给泄 露出去，轻则被开除，重则可能还要坐牢。所以，银行员工即使嘴上再会漏风，也不可能为了泄露你的个人信息，而毁了自己一生的前途。 那么，银行员工会不会围着中奖者推销理财产品呢？实际上，按照银行内部的规定，严禁银行员工主动向客户强行推销理财产品。不过，多数中奖者会主动 开口询问，如何使自己的这笔巨额奖金能够保值增值？只有客户在表达出想要投资理财的愿望之时，银行方面才会邀请你进入私人财富管理银行。届时，会 有银行理财经理根据你对风险的厌恶程度，为你量身定制多元化资产配置方案。 最近，网上有一个讨论，就是如果你买彩票中了800万大奖，奖金打进银 ...

Core Insights - The traditional five-year fixed deposit, once a reliable investment for conservative investors, is gradually being phased out by banks due to declining interest rates and increased early withdrawals [2][4][8] Group 1: Changes in Deposit Products - Over 30% of fixed deposit customers are withdrawing early, resulting in an average interest loss of over 70% [4] - The interest rate for five-year fixed deposits has been reduced, with some banks even removing these products from their offerings [10][12] - The phenomenon of "interest rate inversion" is becoming common, where shorter-term deposits yield higher returns than longer-term ones, indicating banks' concerns over long-term funding costs [6][8] Group 2: Impact on Banking Profitability - The net interest margin, a key indicator of bank profitability, is under pressure, leading banks to adjust their deposit strategies [8][10] - Major banks have seen a decline in net interest margins, with state-owned banks experiencing an 11 basis point drop compared to the previous year [8] Group 3: Shift in Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly moving their funds towards the real economy and capital markets due to shrinking deposit yields and inflation pressures [12] - A new investment strategy termed "New Three Golds," which includes money market funds, bond funds, and gold funds, is gaining popularity among younger investors [12][14] - The importance of diversified asset allocation is emphasized, moving away from reliance on long-term fixed deposits [16][20] Group 4: Financial Literacy and Caution - Investors are advised to assess their financial needs and avoid blindly choosing long-term deposits, as early withdrawals can lead to significant interest losses [18][20] - The necessity for financial education is highlighted, as investors should be cautious of high-yield products and scams [20][22] - The adage of not putting all eggs in one basket remains relevant, as the space for high-yield long-term deposits continues to shrink [22]

Group 1 - The article discusses a withdrawal strategy for profit-taking, suggesting a method where investors sell portions of their holdings based on specific drawdown thresholds [1][3] - It emphasizes the importance of not being overly greedy and highlights the risks of market corrections that can erase profits [3] - New investors are advised to take profits at a 15% gain, as securing profits is deemed more prudent than holding out for higher returns [5] Group 2 - The article differentiates between short-term and long-term bond funds, noting that short-term bond funds have minimal volatility and are suitable for conservative investors [5] - Long-term bond funds offer higher expected annual returns but require careful timing for investment, particularly in relation to government bond yields [7] - The article warns that long-term bonds may be negatively impacted if stock markets continue to rise, leading to capital flight from bonds [7] Group 3 - The consumer sector experienced volatility, initially rising due to a positive CPI report but later declining after disappointing retail sales data [8][10] - The CPI increase was attributed to seasonal spending during holidays rather than a genuine recovery in consumer demand [10] - The article suggests that the consumer sector has underperformed compared to technology and cyclical sectors, indicating potential for value recovery [10][12] Group 4 - It is recommended to focus on sectors supported by government policies, such as tourism, education, and consumer goods, to identify investment opportunities [12] - The overall investment strategy should prioritize a disciplined approach, including gradual accumulation in the consumer sector rather than aggressive positions [12]