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债基2025Q2季报分析:大幅增加久期
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-07-31 08:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of bond funds rebounded in Q2 2025, with significant growth in pure - bond funds and slight increases in first - and second - tier bond funds [1][8]. - In terms of asset allocation, bond positions increased, and bond funds added leverage in Q2 2025 [2][13]. - The duration of medium - and long - term bonds climbed significantly in Q2 2025, and both medium - and long - term and medium - and short - term bond funds showed an upward trend in duration [3]. - Bond funds increased their holdings of both credit bonds and interest - rate bonds in Q2 2025 [3][28]. - In the heavy - position bonds, the proportion of high - grade bonds increased [4][51]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Fund Scale Rebounds, Pure - Bond Fund Scale Increases Significantly - In Q2 2025, the total net asset value of four types of bond funds was 9.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 561.7 billion yuan from the previous quarter. Among them, the scale of pure - bond funds expanded significantly, with medium - and long - term pure - bond funds increasing by 269.2 billion yuan to 6.46 trillion yuan, and short - term pure - bond funds increasing by 172.4 billion yuan to 1.14 trillion yuan. The scale of first - and second - tier bond funds increased slightly, with first - tier bond funds reaching 850.2 billion yuan and second - tier bond funds reaching 807.7 billion yuan, increasing by 81.6 billion yuan and 38.5 billion yuan respectively compared to Q1 [1][8]. 3.2 Asset Structure: Bond Positions Rise - Overall, the four types of bond funds reduced their bond holdings by 458.4 billion yuan in Q1 and significantly increased their bond holdings by 800.7 billion yuan in Q2. As of Q2, the market values of bonds held by medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, short - term pure - bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds were 7.76 trillion yuan, 1.28 trillion yuan, 961.1 billion yuan, and 796.1 billion yuan respectively, with increases of 396.2 billion yuan, 224.7 billion yuan, 125.3 billion yuan, and 54.5 billion yuan compared to Q1. The proportions of bond market values to total asset values were 97.75%, 97.81%, 96.64%, and 84.75% respectively, increasing by 0.25pct, 0.60pct, 0.37pct, and 0.31pct compared to Q1 [2][13]. 3.3 Funds Eased in Q2, Adding Leverage and Extending Duration - In Q2 2025, the arithmetic average leverage ratios of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, short - term pure - bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds were 120%, 114%, 117%, and 114% respectively, increasing by 3.22pct, 2.36pct, 3.97pct, and 1.79pct compared to Q1, showing an overall trend of adding leverage [2][16]. - In Q2 2025, the average duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds increased by 0.81 years to 4.23 years, and that of medium - and long - term credit bond funds increased by 0.94 years to 3.42 years. The average duration of medium - and short - term interest - rate bond funds increased by 0.19 years to 1.50 years, and that of medium - and short - term credit bond funds increased by 0.16 years to 1.08 years [3][17]. - The change in bond fund duration is consistent with the change in the average bond issuance term. As the average bond issuance term increases, the duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate and credit bond funds also extends [19]. 3.4 Bond Type Portfolio: Both Credit Bonds and Interest - Rate Bonds are Increased - Medium - and long - term pure - bond funds mainly hold interest - rate bonds, while short - term pure - bond funds mainly hold credit bonds. In Q2 2025, pure - bond funds increased their holdings of both interest - rate and credit bonds. The four types of bond funds significantly increased their credit bond holdings by 503 billion yuan and interest - rate bond holdings by 276.4 billion yuan. As of Q2 2025, medium - and long - term pure - bond funds held 3.7 trillion yuan of credit bonds and 3.88 trillion yuan of interest - rate bonds, increasing by 206.2 billion yuan and 174.2 billion yuan respectively compared to Q1. Short - term pure - bond funds held 1.1 trillion yuan of credit bonds and 177.2 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, increasing by 184.7 billion yuan and 39.3 billion yuan respectively compared to the end of the previous quarter [3][28]. - First - and second - tier bond funds also increased their holdings of credit and interest - rate bonds. At the end of Q2, first - tier bond funds held 688.9 billion yuan of credit bonds and 185.3 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, increasing by 78.6 billion yuan and 37.4 billion yuan respectively compared to the end of the previous quarter. Second - tier bond funds held 538.1 billion yuan of credit bonds and 160.1 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, increasing by 33.6 billion yuan and 25.4 billion yuan respectively compared to the end of the previous quarter [28]. - In Q2, the proportion of policy - financial bonds in the market value of interest - rate bonds decreased for all types of bond funds [43]. 3.5 Heavy - Position Bond Analysis: The Proportion of High - Grade Bonds Increases - In Q2 2025, among the heavy - position bonds of the four types of pure - bond funds and mixed first - and second - tier bond funds, interest - rate bonds had the highest proportion at 72.38%, followed by financial bonds at 15.97%, while the proportions of industrial and urban investment bonds were relatively small. Compared to Q1, the proportions of interest - rate bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit in heavy - position bonds increased, while those of urban investment bonds, financial bonds, and industrial bonds decreased [4][48]. - In Q2 2025, the proportion of high - grade bonds in the heavy - position credit bonds of pure - bond and first - tier bond funds increased. In medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds increased by 1.23pct to 96.10%, and that of AA + - rated bonds decreased by 1.11pct to 3.27%. In short - term pure - bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds increased by 1.94pct to 94.75%, and that of AA + - rated bonds decreased by 1.08pct to 3.80%. In first - tier bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds increased by 1.70pct to 93.89%, and that of AA + - rated bonds decreased by 1.52pct to 5.32%. In second - tier bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds decreased by 0.21pct to 97.68% [4][51]. - Among heavy - position urban investment bonds, the top four provinces or regions where the four types of public bond funds held the most urban investment bonds in Q2 2025 were Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hubei, and Hunan. Compared to Q1, urban investment bonds in Shandong were increased, while those in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Hunan were significantly reduced [58].