1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the wealth - management scale continued to decline, with a monthly decrease of 1.142 billion yuan, contrary to market expectations of a rebound. Looking ahead, before the Spring Festival in February, the scale may show a moderate growth trend [1][9]. - The inter - bank leverage ratio continued to decline, while the exchange leverage ratio increased, and non - bank institutions increased leverage [2][35]. - Interest - rate and credit - type medium - and long - term bond funds compressed their durations, while medium - short - term and short - term bond funds slightly increased their durations [3][44]. - The supply scale of government bonds increased significantly in early February, with a planned issuance of 906.7 billion yuan in the first week of February [50]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1 - Month Wealth - Management Scale Decline 3.1.1 Weekly Scale - From January 19 - 23, the wealth - management scale continued to rise, with a week - on - week increase of 7.41 billion yuan to 33.35 trillion yuan, higher than the historical same - period level. From January 26 - 30, due to the drive of funds returning to the balance sheet, the scale decreased by 178.8 billion yuan to 33.18 trillion yuan, and the decline was more than seasonal [8]. 3.1.2 Wealth - Management Risks - Product net values continued to rise, and the proportion of negative yields remained low. The proportion of all products with negative yields in the interval remained low at 0.96%. The wealth - management break - even level slightly increased, with the break - even rate of all products rising by 0.03 pct to 0.2%. The proportion of products with unmet performance targets continued to decline, with the non - performance rate of all wealth - management products dropping by 0.3 pct to 23.9% [15][24]. 3.2 Leverage Ratio: Inter - bank Continued to Decline - From January 26 - 30, affected by cross - month demand, capital prices seasonally increased. The average weekly trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the average overnight proportion also decreased. The inter - bank leverage ratio continued to decline, the exchange leverage ratio increased, and non - bank institutions increased leverage [32][35]. 3.3 Interest - Rate and Credit - Type Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds Compressed Durations - From January 26 - 30, due to insufficient incremental information at the end of the month, institutions were still cautious in their operations. The average weekly durations of interest - rate and credit - type medium - and long - term bond funds decreased. The durations of medium - short - term and short - term bond funds slightly increased [42][44]. 3.4 Government Bond Supply Scale Increased Significantly in Early February - In the first week of February (February 2 - 6), the planned issuance of government bonds was 906.7 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous week. The estimated net payment scale of government bonds was about 460.4 billion yuan, still higher than the weekly median payment level since 2025. In terms of different types of bonds, the net payment scale of treasury bonds decreased, while that of local bonds increased [50][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report analyzes the asset allocation changes of public - offering bond funds in Q4 2025. In Q4, medium - and long - term pure bond funds continued to shrink, while second - tier bond funds maintained growth. All types of bond funds increased their bond positions, with second - tier bond funds reducing their stock positions. Short - term bond funds increased leverage, medium - and long - term bond funds decreased leverage, and most bond funds reduced duration. All bond funds significantly increased their allocation to credit bonds and reduced their allocation to interest - rate bonds. There were signs of marginal credit downgrading in the top - holding bonds, and there were regional differences in the allocation of top - holding urban investment bonds. [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Medium - and Long - term Pure Bond Funds Shrink, Second - tier Bond Funds Grow In Q4 2025, the scale of medium - and long - term pure bond funds continued to shrink, while the scale of second - tier bond funds maintained growth. The total net asset value of the four types of bond funds was 9.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 151.2 billion yuan from the previous quarter. Medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased by 154.9 billion yuan to 5.76 trillion yuan, short - term pure bond funds increased by 69.9 billion yuan to 1.02 trillion yuan. The first - tier bond funds decreased by 14 billion yuan to 833.1 billion yuan, and second - tier bond funds increased by 250.3 billion yuan to 1.6 trillion yuan. [1][10] 3.2 Asset Structure: Bond Positions Increase In terms of asset allocation structure, the scale contraction led medium - and long - term bond funds to reduce their bond holdings, while second - tier bond funds increased their bond allocation due to share expansion. The four types of funds collectively increased their bond holdings by 168.1 billion yuan. By the end of 2025, medium - and long - term pure bond funds, short - term pure bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds held bond market values of 6.69 trillion yuan, 1.1 trillion yuan, 941 billion yuan, and 1.42 trillion yuan respectively. Medium - and long - term pure bond funds reduced their holdings by 186.3 billion yuan, while short - term pure bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds increased their holdings by 84.2 billion yuan, 17.5 billion yuan, and 252.6 billion yuan respectively. The bond positions of all types of bond funds increased, and the stock position of second - tier bond funds decreased slightly. [18][19] 3.3 Medium - and Long - term Bond Funds Reduce Leverage and Control Duration Short - term bond funds increased leverage, while medium - and long - term bond funds decreased leverage. In Q4, short - term pure bond funds adopted a defensive coupon strategy of "increasing leverage + reducing duration", with the leverage ratio increasing by 0.26 pct to 111.66%. Medium - and long - term pure bond funds actively reduced leverage due to net redemption pressure and unstable long - term interest rates, with the leverage ratio decreasing by 0.92 pct to 115.83%. The leverage ratios of first - tier and second - tier bond funds increased by 1.58 pct and 0.82 pct to 113.53% and 111.59% respectively. Most bond funds reduced their duration exposure. The arithmetic average durations of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds, medium - and long - term credit bond funds, short - term interest - rate bond funds, and short - term credit bond funds in Q4 were 3.35 years, 2.38 years, 0.99 years, and 0.88 years respectively, decreasing by 0.23 years, 0.15 years, 0.19 years compared to Q3, and the short - term credit bond fund increased by 0.02 years. [28] 3.4 Bond Type Portfolio: Increase Allocation to Credit Bonds, Reduce Allocation to Interest - rate Bonds In Q4, the four types of bond funds collectively increased their credit bond holdings by 306.1 billion yuan and reduced their interest - rate bond holdings by 117.4 billion yuan. Among pure bond funds, medium - and long - term bond funds reduced interest - rate bonds and increased credit bonds, and short - term bond funds increased their credit bond allocation more than interest - rate bonds. Among bond funds with equity components, first - tier bond funds mainly increased their credit bond holdings, and second - tier bond funds increased their credit bond allocation more than interest - rate bonds. In terms of specific bond types, medium - and long - term pure bond funds mainly reduced their holdings of treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and financial bonds and increased their holdings of medium - term notes; short - term pure bond funds mainly increased their holdings of financial bonds, policy - financial bonds, and commercial paper; first - tier bond funds mainly increased their holdings of financial bonds; second - tier bond funds mainly increased their holdings of financial bonds and policy - financial bonds. The proportion of policy - financial bonds in the interest - rate bond portfolio of most bond funds increased. [35][43][52] 3.5 Top - holding Bond Analysis: Rating Central Tendency Migrates Downward In Q4 2025, bond funds significantly reduced their holdings of interest - rate bonds, slightly reduced their holdings of urban investment bonds, increased their holdings of convertible bonds, industrial bonds, and certificates of deposit, and slightly increased their holdings of financial bonds. There were signs of marginal credit downgrading in the top - holding bonds. Most bond funds reduced the proportion of AAA - rated bonds and increased the proportion of AA - and below - rated bonds. In terms of regional allocation of top - holding urban investment bonds, bond funds significantly reduced their holdings of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang and Anhui and increased their holdings in Sichuan and Chongqing. [55][58][65]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the behavior of institutional investors in the bond market, highlighting an increase in the duration of medium to long-term interest rate bond funds, while also noting a widening divergence in investment strategies among institutions [2] Group 1: Institutional Behavior - Institutional investors are increasing the duration of their medium to long-term interest rate bond funds, indicating a shift in investment strategy [2] - There is a growing divergence in the approaches taken by different institutions, reflecting varied expectations regarding interest rate movements and economic conditions [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The report suggests that the bond market is experiencing significant changes, with institutions adapting their strategies in response to evolving market dynamics [2] - The analysis indicates that these changes may lead to increased volatility in the bond market as institutions react differently to economic signals [2]

Group 1 - The report highlights significant fluctuations in the bond market following two important meetings, with the 30-year government bond yield experiencing a range between 2.23% and 2.28% [1][23] - The first main line of analysis focuses on the supply and demand issues for government bonds in 2026, with expectations of a net supply increase from 6.4 trillion yuan in 2025 to a range of 6.5 to 7.2 trillion yuan [2][25] - The second main line discusses speculation around structural interest rate cuts, particularly the LPR, due to weak demand and real estate data, with a notable decline in residential short-term loans [3][26] Group 2 - The report suggests that if the LPR structural interest rate cut is implemented, the bond market may experience a positive reaction, with potential rapid growth in demand towards the year-end [4][33] - The analysis indicates that the long-end interest rate's upward boundary is becoming clearer, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize around 1.85% [5][36] - The report emphasizes that the current bond market may be entering a turning point, with bullish forces beginning to emerge, suggesting a more optimistic strategy compared to early December [7][39] Group 3 - The report notes a slight decrease in the scale of wealth management products as the year-end approaches, with a weekly decline of over 1,000 billion yuan [40] - It highlights that the net value drawdown of pure bond products has continued to narrow, with the proportion of negative yields decreasing [47][56] - The report indicates that the overall performance of wealth management products is improving, with the proportion of products not meeting performance standards declining to 26.4% [56][61]

Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - The wealth management scale increased by CNY 960 billion to CNY 33.61 trillion from December 1-5, indicating a seasonal rebound[1] - The scale is expected to face pressure as December is a traditional quarter-end month, with weekly reductions anticipated starting from the second week of December[1] - Historical data suggests that the weekly decline in wealth management scale could reach CNY 3,000-4,000 billion by the last week of December[1] Group 2: Leverage Rates - The average leverage level in the interbank system rose from 107.13% to 107.37% during the week[2] - Exchange leverage levels slightly decreased from 123.01% to 122.99%, showing a downward trend throughout the week[2] - Non-bank institutions showed insufficient motivation to increase leverage, with their average leverage level declining from 112.19% to 112.10%[2] Group 3: Bond Fund Duration - The duration of interest rate-based medium and long-term bond funds compressed from 3.49 years to 3.36 years, marking a continuous decline over five weeks[3] - In contrast, the duration of credit-based medium and long-term bond funds increased from 2.13 years to 2.20 years[3] - Short and medium-term bond funds saw their durations extend, with average durations rising from 1.38 years to 1.42 years for medium-term funds and from 0.76 years to 0.79 years for short-term funds[3] Group 4: Risk Alerts - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy alterations[4]

Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - In November, the wealth management scale increased slightly by 729 billion yuan, reaching 33.57 trillion yuan[1] - The week of November 24-28 saw a decrease of 1,328 billion yuan due to market adjustments and seasonal factors, which is consistent with historical trends[1] - The average increase in wealth management scale for the same period since 2020 (excluding 2022) was 2,300 billion yuan, indicating current performance is below seasonal expectations[1] Group 2: Leverage Rates - The average interbank leverage ratio rose from 107.01% to 107.13% during the week, indicating a recovery in lending willingness among banks[2] - The exchange leverage ratio also increased from 122.75% to 123.01%, reflecting a stable upward trend throughout the week[2] - Non-bank institutions have begun to increase leverage, with their average leverage level rising from 111.71% to 112.19%[2] Group 3: Bond Fund Duration - The duration of interest rate bond funds decreased from 3.51 years to 3.49 years, while credit bond funds saw a slight reduction from 2.14 years to 2.13 years[3] - Short and medium-term bond funds also experienced a reduction in duration, with averages dropping from 1.40 years to 1.38 years[3] - The duration of short bond funds increased slightly from 0.75 years to 0.76 years, indicating a mixed trend in duration adjustments[3] Group 4: Risk Indicators - The proportion of negative returns among wealth management products rose to 25.0%, an increase of 9.7 percentage points from the previous week[1] - The overall rate of products not meeting performance standards increased by 1.3 percentage points to 25.0%, with notable rises in various banking institutions[1] - The net value of wealth management products has shown significant withdrawal, with a recorded drop of 26 basis points in rights-based products[1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - In Q3 2025, the total asset net value of the four types of bond funds decreased by 252.7 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter, with a significant reduction in pure bond funds and an increase in secondary bond funds [1][8]. - The bond positions of the four types of bond funds decreased, while the stock positions increased slightly. The four types of bond funds significantly reduced their bond holdings in Q3 after increasing them in Q2 [2][17]. - In Q3, bond funds generally reduced leverage and shortened duration due to the weakening bond market and rising interest rates [3][24]. - All four types of bond funds significantly reduced their holdings of credit bonds and interest - rate bonds. The proportion of interest - rate bonds in medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased, and short - term pure bond funds significantly reduced their credit bond holdings [3][32]. - In Q3, pure bond funds and hybrid first - and second - tier bond funds reduced their holdings of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, and certificates of deposit, and increased their holdings of industrial bonds and urban investment bonds. The proportion of high - grade bonds in the heavy - position credit bonds of some bond funds changed [4][51]. Summary by Directory I. Bond Fund Scale Overall Decline, Pure Bond Fund Scale Decrease - In Q3 2025, the total asset net value of the four types of bond funds was 9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 252.7 billion yuan from the previous quarter. Medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased by 546.3 billion yuan to 5.91 trillion yuan, and short - term pure bond funds decreased by 198.5 billion yuan to 945.3 billion yuan. First - tier bond funds decreased by 3.1 billion yuan to 847.1 billion yuan, and second - tier bond funds increased by 495.3 billion yuan to 1.3 trillion yuan [1][8]. II. Asset Structure: Bond Positions Decline - The four types of bond funds increased their bond holdings by 800.7 billion yuan in Q2 and significantly reduced them by 827 billion yuan in Q3. By the end of Q3, medium - and long - term pure bond funds, short - term pure bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds held bond market values of 6.88 trillion yuan, 1 trillion yuan, 923.5 billion yuan, and 1.17 trillion yuan respectively, with the first three reducing their holdings and the second - tier bond funds increasing their holdings compared to Q2. - The proportion of bond market value to total asset value of the four types of bond funds decreased in Q3 compared to Q2, while the proportion of stock market value to total asset value of first - tier and second - tier bond funds increased [2][17]. III. Bond Funds Reduce Leverage and Shorten Duration - In Q3 2025, due to the good performance of the capital market and the flow of funds from fixed - income products to the equity market, the arithmetic average leverage ratios of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, short - term pure bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds decreased compared to Q2. - With the upward - trending bond market yields in Q3, all types of bond funds reduced their duration exposure. The average durations of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds, medium - and long - term credit bond funds, short - term interest - rate bond funds, and short - term credit bond funds decreased compared to Q2 [3][24]. IV. Bond Type Portfolio: Both Credit Bonds and Interest - Rate Bonds Are Reduced - The four types of bond funds significantly reduced their holdings of credit bonds by 359.2 billion yuan and interest - rate bonds by 415.1 billion yuan. By the end of Q3 2025, medium - and long - term pure bond funds reduced their holdings of credit bonds and interest - rate bonds compared to Q2, with the proportion of credit bonds increasing and that of interest - rate bonds decreasing. Short - term pure bond funds also reduced their holdings of credit bonds and interest - rate bonds. - First - and second - tier bond funds also reduced their holdings of credit bonds and interest - rate bonds. In terms of different bond types, different types of bond funds had different reduction or increase trends [3][32]. V. Heavy - Position Bond Analysis: High - Grade Proportion Declines - In Q3 2025, pure bond funds and hybrid first - and second - tier bond funds reduced their holdings of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, and certificates of deposit, and increased their holdings of industrial bonds and urban investment bonds. - Among the heavy - position credit bonds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds in medium - and long - term pure bond funds and short - term pure bond funds decreased, while the proportion of AA + - rated bonds increased. In first - tier and second - tier bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds increased. - In terms of regional distribution of heavy - position urban investment bonds, the top four provinces or regions with the most holdings in Q3 were Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hubei, and Hunan. Compared with Q2, Jiangsu increased its holdings, while Shandong, Anhui, Tianjin, and Jilin reduced their holdings [4][51][58].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - From October 27 to October 31, 2025, the central bank made net injections through short - term reverse repurchases, and the MLF had a net injection of 200 billion yuan. The money market faced short - term fluctuations due to tax payment periods and month - end effects. From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) declined overall, and the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds was - 38.2 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of inter - bank CDs was about 376.9 billion yuan. On October 31, 2025, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds increased by 0.66 years and 0.20 years respectively on a weekly basis [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Funds - In October, the total net injection of outright reverse repurchases and MLF was 600 billion yuan. The central bank announced the restart of treasury bond trading. From October 27 to October 31, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 120.08 billion yuan. In November, 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases and 90 billion yuan of MLF will mature [4]. - Affected by tax payment periods and month - end factors, the money market had short - term and slight fluctuations, but it loosened significantly in the last two days of the month. From October 27 to October 31, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 increased by 7.4 and 7.7 basis points respectively compared with October 20 - 24, 2025 [5]. - The net payment scale of government bonds decreased. From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the net payment of government bonds was about 133.72 billion yuan, 80.5 billion yuan less than that of October 20 - 26, 2025. From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds was - 38.2 billion yuan [6]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The yields of inter - bank CDs declined overall. As of October 31, 2025, the yields of 1M and 3M inter - bank CDs decreased by 9.0 and 3.5 basis points respectively compared with October 24, 2025, and the yield of 1Y inter - bank CDs decreased by 4.8 basis points [7]. - The net financing of inter - bank CDs remained positive. From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the net financing of inter - bank CDs was about 17.06 billion yuan. The maturity repayment of inter - bank CDs from November 3 to November 9, 2025, is expected to be 376.9 billion yuan. The maturity scale of inter - bank CDs in November is about 2.8 trillion yuan, significantly higher than that in October (1.8 trillion yuan) [7]. 3. Institutional Behavior - The average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. From October 27 to October 31, 2025, the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 107.36%, compared with 107.56% from October 20 to October 24, 2025 [8]. - Based on the calculation results, the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - rate pure bond funds increased marginally. On October 31, 2025, the median duration of medium - long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds increased by 0.66 years on a weekly basis and was at the 96.5% quantile since early 2022; the median duration of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds increased by 0.20 years on a weekly basis and was at the 98.7% quantile since early 2022 [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report is bullish on the bond market, suggesting that the current bond market has prominent allocation value and recommends investing in 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y Treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds. [2] 2. Core View of the Report Based on the Q3 2025 quarterly reports of bond funds, the report analyzes the changes in interest rate bond funds, including scale, asset allocation, and investment strategies. It points out that due to factors such as the significant rise in the stock market and regulatory rule impacts in Q3, the bond market deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals, leading to a decline in the quarterly returns of interest rate bond funds. Currently, the bond market has high allocation value, and the bond yields are expected to decline in a volatile manner. [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Changes in Interest Rate Bond Funds in Q3 2025 - **Scale and Asset Allocation**: As of Q3 2025, the total asset value of interest rate bond funds was 3.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.44 trillion yuan from Q2 2025. The bond allocation ratio decreased, while the cash ratio increased slightly. [2] - **Heavy - Positioned Bonds**: Actively managed interest rate bond funds slightly increased their allocation to Treasury bonds and reduced their allocation to policy - financial bonds. Overall, they reduced their allocation to long - duration bonds, but actively managed funds significantly increased their allocation to Treasury bonds with a maturity of 1 year or less and continued to increase their allocation to 30 - year Treasury bonds. [2] - **Yield**: The average annualized yield of interest rate bond funds decreased from 3.96% in Q2 2025 to - 1.84% in Q3 2025. Credit bond funds had relatively stronger defensive capabilities. [2] Investment Strategy Changes in Q3 2025 In Q3, the bond market deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Due to the significant extension of the duration in Q2, the bond market adjustment in Q3 led to a sharp decline in the quarterly returns of interest rate bond funds. As a result, the duration was shortened, and the scale returned to the level of Q3 2024. [2] Investment Recommendations - **Market Outlook**: The bond market has prominent allocation value, and the bond yields are expected to decline in a volatile manner. The policy interest rate in Q4 may be cut by 10 - 20BP. [2] - **Investment Choices**: The top choices for bond market investment are 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y Treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds. It is predicted that the yield of 10Y Treasury bonds will return to around 1.65%, the yield of 30Y Treasury bonds will reach 1.9%, and the yield of 5Y large - bank secondary capital bonds will reach 1.9%. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report selects medium - duration investment - grade bond funds with large scales as samples to analyze the duration views and allocation preferences of US bond funds. In the cash bond level, as of Q2 2025, the proportions of Treasury bonds, credit bonds, and MBS in US bond fund holdings are 28.5%, 26.4%, and 36.9% respectively. Since H2 2024, funds have been more cautious about duration allocation, and their under - allocation of duration and inflation concerns may jointly push up the term premium. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 0 US Bond Fund Classification - There are various types of US bond funds, including investment - grade bond funds, high - yield bond funds, government bond funds, etc. Investment - grade bond funds have the largest asset size, reaching $248.52 billion, accounting for 46.6% of the total. [4] - The report selects 20 actively - managed bond funds with large scales and using the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index as the performance benchmark as samples, which helps to better understand the duration views and allocation preferences of bond funds. [6] PART1 Cash Bonds: Analyzing Bond Funds' Variety Preferences - **Overall Position Structure**: From the end of 2021 to 2023, bond funds increased their MBS holdings, compressed their credit bond holdings, and slightly reduced their Treasury bond, municipal bond, and cash holdings. As of Q2 this year, the proportions of Treasury bonds, credit bonds, and MBS in US bond fund holdings are 28.5%, 26.4%, and 36.9% respectively. [12] - **Advantages of MBS**: MBS has higher returns than Treasury bonds, lower volatility than credit bonds, low cycle sensitivity, and relatively good valuation. Since 2023, MBS has had better valuation than credit bonds. [13][16] - **Impact on Duration**: MBS has a shorter duration than Treasury bonds and credit bonds. The increase in MBS and ABS holdings has shortened the overall duration of bond fund cash bonds. [17] - **Credit Bond Allocation**: Bond funds mainly reduced their holdings of the industrial sector in credit bonds, while maintaining stable allocations in the financial and utility sectors. From 2022 - 2023, they significantly reduced their holdings of the cyclically - sensitive industrial sector. [22] - **Comparison with Benchmark**: Compared with the benchmark (Bloomberg US Aggregate Index), bond funds are overweight in MBS and finance, and underweight in Treasury bonds and the industrial sector. [23] PART2 Derivatives: Why Do Funds Hold Long Positions in Futures? - **Increase in Treasury Futures Holdings**: Since 2022, asset management companies have significantly increased their long positions in Treasury futures, mainly holding 2Y and 5Y Treasury futures contracts. [26][27] - **Categories of Treasury Futures**: There are multiple categories of US Treasury futures, with different contract amounts and delivery conditions. As of the end of August this year, the open - interest amounts of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, etc. Treasury futures are different. [33] - **Proportion of Mutual Funds**: As of Q4 2023, mutual funds held about $500 billion in Treasury futures, accounting for nearly half of the Treasury futures holdings of asset management institutions. Since 2022, mutual funds have concentrated on increasing their long positions in 2Y and 5Y Treasury futures. [35] - **Reasons for Holding Long Positions**: Funds hold long positions in Treasury futures to supplement the duration gap at a lower cost, allowing them to reduce the holdings of illiquid long - duration old Treasury bonds and allocate more to higher - yielding MBS/ABS. They also use Treasury futures to add leverage, and are less involved in the repurchase market. [38][43] - **Impact on the Market**: The long - position demand for Treasury futures from funds and the Fed's QT have led to a decrease in the buying of Treasury cash bonds, resulting in negative net basis and attracting hedge funds to engage in basis trading. [50] PART3 Model: Measuring the Empirical Duration of Funds - **Measurement Method**: The report uses the daily returns of 20 selected funds and five independent variables (changes in 10Y US Treasury yield, MBS spread, investment - grade credit spread, 30 - 5Y term spread, and volatility) for rolling regression. The regression coefficient of the 10Y US Treasury yield change is regarded as the empirical duration of the fund, which measures the fund's interest - rate risk exposure. [53][54] - **Relationship with Interest Rates**: Before H1 2024, funds generally adopted a configuration - based approach. Since H2 2024, they have been more cautious about duration allocation, under - allocating duration, and following the trend. Their under - allocation of duration may push up the term premium. [59][61] - **Allocation Preferences in Different Periods**: From 2022 - 2025, funds' allocation preferences changed with inflation, policy interest rates, economic fundamentals, and external shocks. For example, from 2022 - Feb 2023, they were overweight in credit and duration; from Mar - Jul 2023, they steepened the curve, under - allocated credit, and increased MBS allocations. [66][67] - **Asset Allocation Rules**: In the long - term, fund duration is generally positively correlated with interest rates. When the benchmark interest rate is low and credit spreads are relatively high, funds tend to increase credit exposure. When MBS is more attractively valued than credit bonds, funds tend to increase MBS allocations. [69][73][76]