固定收益 | 固定收益定期 交易盘抛压已明显缓解 证券研究报告 机构行为跟踪周报 20250824 债市活力指数回落 截至 8 月 22 日，债市活力指数较 8 月 15 日回落 12pcts 至 17%，5D-MA 回落 4pcts 至 23%。 3）配置盘：理财二级市场拉久期，农商行保险部署超长债 其中，债市活力升温指标包括：中长期纯债基久期中位数（滚动两年分位 数由 98.3%升至 99.7%）、银行间债市杠杆率较过去 4 年同期均值的超额水平 （滚动两年分位数由 24%升至 26%）、十年期国开债隐含税率（反向）（滚动 两年分位数由 4%升至 8%）。债市活力降温指标包括：10Y 国开债活跃券成 交额/9-10Y 国开债余额（滚动两年分位数由 86%降至 38%）、30Y 国债换手 率（滚动两年分位数由 55%降至 44%）。 机构买卖行为跟踪：交易盘主力卖出，配置盘承接力度减弱 1）买卖力度与券种选择：后半周基金抛压明显缓解，农商行转为卖出 整体来看，本周现券市场净买入力度排序为：大行>保险>其他产品类>理 财>境外机构及其他>农村金融机构，净卖出力度排序为基金>城商行＞券 商>货基>股份行。 券种 ...

上证10年新高，全A历史新高，成交量有点回落。港股近期没涨，资金驱动的A股牛市还能走多远不好说。随着券商自营及 债基久期快速降久期，后续股市对债市的影响预计明显减弱，终将回归基本面。我们持续看下半年10Y国债1.6-1.8，当前全 力看多，因1）央行宽松，正carry；2）调整后对银行有配置价值；3）经济下行压力上升。要珍惜收益率2%以上的5Y资本 债及30Y国债。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 本周继续关注本轮债市调整以来平安公司债ETF（511030）回撤控制排名第一，净值相对稳健且回撤可控，可参考下表 （本轮债市调整自2025年2月10日起算）： 机构认为，盯着股市做债，导致债市阶段性受股市的影响很大。资金驱动的股票牛市没有债熊，经济复苏驱动的股票牛市 才会带来债熊。2014年四季度股债双牛，当时债基规模非常小，债券投资主要靠银行自营及理财。 | 代码 | 簡易 | 易内简称 | 托管人 | 规模(亿) | 近1周豢 | 近1周均贴 | 近1周涨跌 | 貞押宰 | 本轮词整 | 近1年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report After a period of volatile market conditions, interest rates declined slightly in a narrow range this week, and institutional behavior stabilized overall, lacking a clear willingness to go long or short. Funds showed a more stable willingness to net - buy credit bonds than interest - rate bonds. The issuance of the first batch of tax - increased local bonds was smooth, and subsequent observation is needed to see if institutional bullish sentiment will increase [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Sentiment: Decline in Bond Market Vitality Index - As of August 8, the bond market vitality index decreased by 35 pcts to 14% compared to August 1, and the 5D - MA decreased by 19 pcts to 26%. Indicators of bond market vitality cooling include the decline in the trading volume of 10Y CDB active bonds/9 - 10Y CDB bond balance, the decrease in the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio, the change in the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, the decline in the implied tax rate of 10Y CDB bonds, and the decrease in the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds [1][11][13]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior: Bond Market Stabilized, Institutions Remained on the Sidelines 3.2.1 Buying and Selling Strength and Bond Selection: Light Trading of Interest - Rate Bonds, Continuous Net Buying of Credit Bonds by Funds - In the current bond market, the order of net - buying strength in the cash bond market is: funds > other product types > wealth management > insurance > overseas institutions and others; the order of net - selling strength is: joint - stock banks > city commercial banks > rural commercial banks > securities firms. For ultra - long bonds (bonds with a maturity of over 15 years), the order of net - buying strength is: funds > insurance > rural commercial banks > overseas institutions and others; the order of net - selling strength is: large - scale banks > joint - stock banks > other product types > city commercial banks > securities firms [23]. - Different institutions have different main bond types. For example, large - scale banks focus on interest - rate bonds within 1Y, 1 - 3Y, and 5 - 7Y; funds focus on certificates of deposit, credit bonds within 1Y, and 1 - 3Y credit bonds [2][28]. 3.2.2 Trading Portfolio: Slight Increase in Durations of Credit Bond Funds and Interest - Rate Bond Funds, Smaller Duration Adjustments for High - Performing Bond Funds - As of August 8, the mean and median durations of the full - sample medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.04 years and 0.03 years respectively compared to August 1, reaching 4.56 years and 4.42 years, at the 98.7% quantile over the past two years. Among them, the median durations of pure interest - rate bond funds, interest - rate bond funds, and credit bond funds increased by 0.06 years, 0.03 years, and 0.03 years respectively. High - performing bond funds had smaller duration adjustments [41][44]. 3.2.3 Allocation Portfolio: Wealth Management Extended Duration in the Secondary Market, Rural Commercial Banks and Insurance Deployed Ultra - Long Bonds - **Primary Market**: This week, the primary - market subscription demand for treasury bonds decreased, while that for policy - financial bonds increased. The weighted average full - coverage multiples of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds changed accordingly [58]. - **Large - scale Banks**: As of August 8, the cumulative net - buying scale of 1 - 3Y treasury bonds this year was close to the same period last year. Although large - scale banks increased their net - buying of short - term treasury bonds since June, the cumulative net - buying scale was still lower than that in 2024 [66]. - **Rural Commercial Banks**: The cumulative net - buying scale of cash bonds by rural commercial banks this year was significantly weaker than in previous years, mainly due to the weak net - buying of short - term bonds within 1Y. However, the net - buying strength of 7 - 10Y and over - 10Y bonds was higher than in previous years [78]. - **Insurance**: The net - buying strength of cash bonds by insurance this year was significantly higher than in previous years, mainly due to the strong buying of ultra - long bonds over 10Y. As of August 8, the ratio of cumulative net - buying of cash bonds to cumulative premium income exceeded that at the end of August last year [86]. - **Wealth Management**: Since June, the cumulative net - buying scale of cash bonds by wealth management has continued to rise. This week, the duration of net - bought cash bonds in the secondary market decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level since February 23, 2024 [95][97]. 3.3 Asset Management Product Tracking: More than Half of Credit Bond Funds Had Positive Returns in the Past Month - **Wealth Management**: As of the week of August 3, the wealth management scale decreased by 900 million yuan in August, far lower than the estimated value based on the average monthly growth rate in the past three years. The fixed - income wealth management products decreased by 1.99 billion yuan. The wealth management break - even rate increased [98]. - **Bond Funds**: Since August, the scale of bond funds increased by 3.83 billion yuan, higher than that of equity funds. The newly established bond funds this week had a relatively large scale, ranking second - highest this year. This week, the net values of all types of bond funds continued to rise, with credit bond funds performing better [109].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market experienced significant fluctuations, and institutional behavior adjusted accordingly. After a series of market movements, the "chasing up" behavior of trading desks became more cautious, and the allocation desks showed differentiation without forming a joint force [8]. - The bond market vitality index increased. As of August 1st, it rose by 13 pcts to 49% compared to July 25th, and the 5D - MA increased by 1 pct to 45% [1][9]. - In July, the increase in wealth management scale was significantly weaker than the seasonal average. The scale of bond funds also had a notable decline in its month - on - month growth rate, while the month - on - month growth rate of stock funds was larger [4]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Sentiment: Bond Market Vitality Index Increase - The bond market vitality index is compiled based on the historical percentile levels of bond market leverage, turnover rate, bond fund duration, and the implied tax rate of government bonds since 2022 and their correlation with the bond market trend. As of August 1st, it rose by 13 pcts to 49% compared to July 25th, and the 5D - MA increased by 1 pct to 45% [9]. - Indicators of increasing bond market vitality include the trading volume of 10Y government bond active bonds/balance of 9 - 10Y government bonds, inter - bank bond market leverage, median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, and 1 minus the implied tax rate of 10 - year government bonds. Indicators of decreasing bond market vitality include the turnover rate of 30Y government bonds [1][11][12]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior: After Repeated Market Fluctuations, Funds' Bullish Sentiment Became More Cautious 3.2.1 Buying and Selling Strength and Bond Selection - In the cash bond market last week, the order of net buying strength was: overseas institutions and others > other product types > insurance > wealth management > money market funds > funds. The order of net selling strength was: city commercial banks > joint - stock banks > securities firms > rural financial institutions. For ultra - long bonds (bonds with a maturity of over 15 years), the order of net buying strength was: insurance > wealth management > funds > other product types, and the order of net selling strength was: large - scale banks > joint - stock banks > city commercial banks > rural commercial banks > overseas institutions and others [19]. - Currently, the main bond types for various institutions are: large - scale banks focus on 3 - 5Y credit bonds; rural commercial banks focus on 3 - 5Y credit bonds; insurance focuses on 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds; funds focus on 3 - 5Y interest - rate bonds; wealth management has no obvious main bond type; other product types focus on 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds [2][24]. 3.2.2 Trading Desks: Interest - Rate Bond Funds Extended Duration, Credit Bond Funds Shortened Duration, and High - Performing Bond Funds Had Smaller Duration Adjustments - As of August 1st, the median duration of the full - sample medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.03 years to 4.39 years compared to July 25th. Among them, the median durations of pure interest - rate bond funds, interest - rate bond funds, and credit bond funds were 5.67 years, 5.43 years, and 3.95 years respectively, with changes of +0.98 years, +0.86 years, and - 0.47 years. The median durations of high - performing interest - rate bond funds and credit bond funds were 6.79 years and 4.75 years respectively, with changes of - 0.39 years and +0.19 years [2][41]. 3.2.3 Allocation Desks: Wealth Management Continuously Extended Duration, Rural Commercial Banks and Insurance Arranged Ultra - Long Bonds - In the primary market, the subscription demand for treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased last week. In the secondary market, large - scale banks' cumulative net purchase of 1 - 3Y treasury bonds this year was higher than the same period last year; rural commercial banks' cumulative net purchase of cash bonds this year was significantly weaker than in previous years, mainly due to the weak net purchase of short - term bonds within 1 year, but their net purchase of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y cash bonds was higher than the same period in previous years; insurance's net purchase of cash bonds and its ratio to premium income were significantly higher than in previous years, mainly because of the sufficient supply of ultra - long - term government bonds; wealth management continued to increase the duration of its net - purchased cash bonds in the secondary market, reaching the highest level since February 23, 2024 [3][55][79]. 3.3 Asset Management Product Tracking: The Increase in Wealth Management Scale in July Was Significantly Weaker than the Seasonal Average - In July, the increase in wealth management scale was weaker than the seasonal average. The actual month - on - month increase was 274.1 billion yuan, while the estimated increase based on the average month - on - month growth rate of the past four months was 1.87 trillion yuan. The month - on - month growth rate of bond fund scale declined significantly in July, while that of stock funds was larger. Last week, the net value of various types of bond funds increased significantly, but they still recorded overall negative returns in the past month [4][90][98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of bond funds rebounded in Q2 2025, with significant growth in pure - bond funds and slight increases in first - and second - tier bond funds [1][8]. - In terms of asset allocation, bond positions increased, and bond funds added leverage in Q2 2025 [2][13]. - The duration of medium - and long - term bonds climbed significantly in Q2 2025, and both medium - and long - term and medium - and short - term bond funds showed an upward trend in duration [3]. - Bond funds increased their holdings of both credit bonds and interest - rate bonds in Q2 2025 [3][28]. - In the heavy - position bonds, the proportion of high - grade bonds increased [4][51]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Fund Scale Rebounds, Pure - Bond Fund Scale Increases Significantly - In Q2 2025, the total net asset value of four types of bond funds was 9.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 561.7 billion yuan from the previous quarter. Among them, the scale of pure - bond funds expanded significantly, with medium - and long - term pure - bond funds increasing by 269.2 billion yuan to 6.46 trillion yuan, and short - term pure - bond funds increasing by 172.4 billion yuan to 1.14 trillion yuan. The scale of first - and second - tier bond funds increased slightly, with first - tier bond funds reaching 850.2 billion yuan and second - tier bond funds reaching 807.7 billion yuan, increasing by 81.6 billion yuan and 38.5 billion yuan respectively compared to Q1 [1][8]. 3.2 Asset Structure: Bond Positions Rise - Overall, the four types of bond funds reduced their bond holdings by 458.4 billion yuan in Q1 and significantly increased their bond holdings by 800.7 billion yuan in Q2. As of Q2, the market values of bonds held by medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, short - term pure - bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds were 7.76 trillion yuan, 1.28 trillion yuan, 961.1 billion yuan, and 796.1 billion yuan respectively, with increases of 396.2 billion yuan, 224.7 billion yuan, 125.3 billion yuan, and 54.5 billion yuan compared to Q1. The proportions of bond market values to total asset values were 97.75%, 97.81%, 96.64%, and 84.75% respectively, increasing by 0.25pct, 0.60pct, 0.37pct, and 0.31pct compared to Q1 [2][13]. 3.3 Funds Eased in Q2, Adding Leverage and Extending Duration - In Q2 2025, the arithmetic average leverage ratios of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, short - term pure - bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds were 120%, 114%, 117%, and 114% respectively, increasing by 3.22pct, 2.36pct, 3.97pct, and 1.79pct compared to Q1, showing an overall trend of adding leverage [2][16]. - In Q2 2025, the average duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds increased by 0.81 years to 4.23 years, and that of medium - and long - term credit bond funds increased by 0.94 years to 3.42 years. The average duration of medium - and short - term interest - rate bond funds increased by 0.19 years to 1.50 years, and that of medium - and short - term credit bond funds increased by 0.16 years to 1.08 years [3][17]. - The change in bond fund duration is consistent with the change in the average bond issuance term. As the average bond issuance term increases, the duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate and credit bond funds also extends [19]. 3.4 Bond Type Portfolio: Both Credit Bonds and Interest - Rate Bonds are Increased - Medium - and long - term pure - bond funds mainly hold interest - rate bonds, while short - term pure - bond funds mainly hold credit bonds. In Q2 2025, pure - bond funds increased their holdings of both interest - rate and credit bonds. The four types of bond funds significantly increased their credit bond holdings by 503 billion yuan and interest - rate bond holdings by 276.4 billion yuan. As of Q2 2025, medium - and long - term pure - bond funds held 3.7 trillion yuan of credit bonds and 3.88 trillion yuan of interest - rate bonds, increasing by 206.2 billion yuan and 174.2 billion yuan respectively compared to Q1. Short - term pure - bond funds held 1.1 trillion yuan of credit bonds and 177.2 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, increasing by 184.7 billion yuan and 39.3 billion yuan respectively compared to the end of the previous quarter [3][28]. - First - and second - tier bond funds also increased their holdings of credit and interest - rate bonds. At the end of Q2, first - tier bond funds held 688.9 billion yuan of credit bonds and 185.3 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, increasing by 78.6 billion yuan and 37.4 billion yuan respectively compared to the end of the previous quarter. Second - tier bond funds held 538.1 billion yuan of credit bonds and 160.1 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, increasing by 33.6 billion yuan and 25.4 billion yuan respectively compared to the end of the previous quarter [28]. - In Q2, the proportion of policy - financial bonds in the market value of interest - rate bonds decreased for all types of bond funds [43]. 3.5 Heavy - Position Bond Analysis: The Proportion of High - Grade Bonds Increases - In Q2 2025, among the heavy - position bonds of the four types of pure - bond funds and mixed first - and second - tier bond funds, interest - rate bonds had the highest proportion at 72.38%, followed by financial bonds at 15.97%, while the proportions of industrial and urban investment bonds were relatively small. Compared to Q1, the proportions of interest - rate bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit in heavy - position bonds increased, while those of urban investment bonds, financial bonds, and industrial bonds decreased [4][48]. - In Q2 2025, the proportion of high - grade bonds in the heavy - position credit bonds of pure - bond and first - tier bond funds increased. In medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds increased by 1.23pct to 96.10%, and that of AA + - rated bonds decreased by 1.11pct to 3.27%. In short - term pure - bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds increased by 1.94pct to 94.75%, and that of AA + - rated bonds decreased by 1.08pct to 3.80%. In first - tier bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds increased by 1.70pct to 93.89%, and that of AA + - rated bonds decreased by 1.52pct to 5.32%. In second - tier bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds decreased by 0.21pct to 97.68% [4][51]. - Among heavy - position urban investment bonds, the top four provinces or regions where the four types of public bond funds held the most urban investment bonds in Q2 2025 were Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hubei, and Hunan. Compared to Q1, urban investment bonds in Shandong were increased, while those in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Hunan were significantly reduced [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Under the resonance of multiple negative factors such as the rise in risk preference, the sharp rise in the equity and commodity markets, and the central bank's net withdrawal in the open - market operations disturbing the capital price, the bond market fluctuated violently this week. The selling behavior of funds is particularly worthy of attention. The scale of funds' net selling on Thursday and Friday was second only to the redemption tides in late August and early October last year. The performance of bond funds was poor, with over 40% of pure interest - rate bond funds recording negative returns in the past three months. Continued attention should be paid to changes in market risk preference and fund redemption situations [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Sentiment - The bond market vitality index increased, mainly due to the rise in the turnover rate of ultra - long bonds. As of July 25, the bond market vitality index rose 6 pcts to 37% compared with July 18, and the 5D - MA rose 5 pcts to 45% [11]. - Indicators of rising bond market vitality included the trading volume of the active 10Y CDB bond / the balance of 9 - 10Y CDB bonds (the rolling two - year quantile rose from 42% to 72%), the 30Y treasury bond turnover rate (the rolling two - year quantile rose from 16% to 71%), and the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds (the rolling two - year quantile rose from 99.3% to 99.7%) [13]. - Indicators of falling bond market vitality included the excess level of the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio compared with the average of the past 4 years (the rolling two - year quantile dropped from 20% to 5%) and the implied tax rate of 1 - 10Y CDB bonds (the rolling two - year quantile dropped from 57% to 21%) [14]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior 3.2.1 Buying and Selling Strength and Bond Selection - In terms of overall buying and selling strength, the order of net buying strength in the cash bond market this week was large banks > insurance > wealth management > other products > money market funds > overseas institutions and others, and the order of net selling strength was funds > securities firms > joint - stock banks > city commercial banks. For ultra - long bonds, the order of net buying strength was insurance > rural commercial banks > city commercial banks > wealth management, and the order of net selling strength was funds > securities firms > large banks > joint - stock banks > other products [22]. - Different institutions had different main bond types. Large banks focused on 1 - 3Y interest - rate bonds and credit bonds; rural commercial banks focused on 5 - 10Y interest - rate bonds and 1 - 3Y other bonds; insurance focused on interest - rate bonds over 10Y and 7 - 10Y credit bonds; funds focused on interest - rate bonds within 1Y; wealth management focused on certificates of deposit and interest - rate bonds within 3Y; other products focused on certificates of deposit [26]. 3.2.2 Trading Portfolio - As of July 25, the median duration of the full - sample medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.21 years to 4.38 years compared with July 18. Among them, the median durations of pure interest - rate bond funds and interest - rate bond funds decreased by 0.22 years and 0.04 years respectively, while that of credit bond funds increased by 0.19 years. The median durations of high - performing interest - rate bond funds and credit bond funds changed more significantly, decreasing by 0.48 years and increasing by 0.32 years respectively [35]. 3.2.3 Allocation Portfolio - **Primary market**: The primary subscription demand for treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds decreased overall this week. The weighted average full - market multiples of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds decreased from 3.25 times to 2.94 times and from 3.36 times to 3.16 times respectively [53]. - **Large banks**: As of July 25, the cumulative net purchase of 1 - 3Y treasury bonds this year reached 4032 billion yuan, higher than the same period last year [59]. - **Rural commercial banks**: This year, the cumulative net purchase of cash bonds was significantly weaker than in previous years, mainly due to the weak net purchase of short - term bonds within 1Y. However, the net purchase of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y cash bonds was higher than the same period in previous years [70]. - **Insurance**: This year, the net purchase of cash bonds and its ratio to premium income were significantly higher than in previous years, mainly due to the sufficient supply of ultra - long - term government bonds. As of July 25, the ratio of the cumulative net purchase of cash bonds to the cumulative issuance of government bonds over 10Y was 27.34%, lower than 35.14% at the end of July last year [81]. - **Wealth management**: From June to July, the cumulative net purchase of cash bonds continued to rise, especially for bonds over 10Y. This week, the duration of net - bought cash bonds in the secondary market increased to the highest level since February 23, 2024 [90]. 3.3 Asset Management Product Tracking - Since July, the increase in the scale of wealth management products was weaker than seasonal. The scale increased by 27.96 billion yuan, far lower than the same period from 2021 - 2024. The wealth management product break - even rate decreased [94]. - Since July, the scale of bond funds increased by 13.41 billion yuan, with a significant slowdown in growth rate, while the scale of equity funds increased by 20.99 billion yuan. This week, the net value of various types of bond funds fell sharply, and over 40% of pure interest - rate bond funds recorded negative returns in the past three months [101].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of various bond ETFs shows a mixed trend, with company bond ETFs experiencing significant inflows and growth in scale, while government bond ETFs show more stable but lower performance metrics. Group 1: Company Bond ETF (511030) - As of June 24, 2025, the company bond ETF has increased by 0.01%, with a latest price of 106.07 yuan [1] - Over the past year, the company bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 2.18% [1] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 20.81 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1] - The latest share count for the company bond ETF is 19.6 million, also a new high in the past three months [1] - The company bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past 12 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.538 billion yuan, totaling 5.243 billion yuan in net inflows, averaging 437 million yuan daily [1] Group 2: Government Bond ETF (511020) - As of June 24, 2025, the government bond ETF (5-10 years) is trading at 117.6 yuan, with a near-term increase of 1.47% over the past three months [4] - The latest scale of the government bond ETF (5-10 years) is 1.433 billion yuan [4] - The average daily trading volume over the past month for the government bond ETF (5-10 years) is 523 million yuan [4] Group 3: National Development Bonds ETF (159651) - As of June 24, 2025, the national development bonds ETF is priced at 106.21 yuan, with a 2.00% increase over the past year [4] - The latest scale of the national development bonds ETF is 1.005 billion yuan [4] - The average daily trading volume for the national development bonds ETF over the past year is 536 million yuan [4] Group 4: Market Trends and Institutional Insights - Since the beginning of the year, bond funds have net purchased 130 billion yuan of interest rate bonds with maturities over 20 years [4] - Major banks have seen a bond investment growth rate of 17.8%, while smaller banks have a growth rate of 15.2% [4] - The trading data from June 23 shows a net purchase of 37.4 billion yuan by bond funds, indicating a trend of increasing leverage and duration extension in bond funds [5] - The average duration of interest rate medium and long-term bond funds has exceeded 5 years, while credit bond funds are also extending their duration [5] - The current environment suggests a focus on long-term city investment bonds and bank capital bonds with yields above 2% [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The general deposit growth rate of the Big Four banks has been persistently low, and they face significant pressure. The difference in deposit rates between large and small - medium - sized banks may lead to a continued low growth rate of the Big Four's general deposits. The Big Four rely more on inter - bank liabilities to support asset expansion [1]. - The central bank's easing in Q2 2025 has supported the Big Four to expand their bond investment scale and increase leverage in the bond market, which has pushed down bond yields and exacerbated the problem of yield inversion in bond investments by banks and insurance funds. Attention should be paid to regulatory attitudes towards the bond market and central bank's actions on the capital side [1]. - It is recommended to be bullish on long - term urban investment bonds and bank capital bonds with yields above 2%. The investment value of interest - rate bonds is relatively low, and the spread of low - rated credit bonds is expected to further compress. It is also suggested to continue to pay attention to Hong Kong - listed banks [1]. Summary by Related Content Big Four Banks' Deposit Situation - Since 2024, the general deposit growth rate of the Big Four banks has declined rapidly. In 2024, from March to June, it dropped from 10.2% to 4.4%. In May 2025, the general deposits of the Big Four decreased by 0.2 trillion yuan, while those of small - medium - sized banks increased by 0.42 trillion yuan. As of the end of May 2025, the general deposit growth rate of the Big Four was 5.8%, significantly lower than 9.4% of small - medium - sized banks [1]. - From January to May 2025, the Big Four's liability scale increased by 8.46 trillion yuan, with general deposits increasing by 3.11 trillion yuan, accounting for only 36.8% of the liability increment. In contrast, the proportion of general deposits in the liability increment of small - medium - sized banks reached 88.4% [1]. Asset Expansion and Investment of Banks - As of the end of May 2025, the credit growth rate of the Big Four was 9.5%, and the bond investment growth rate was as high as 17.8%. The credit growth rate of small - medium - sized banks was 5.8%, and the bond investment growth rate was 15.2%. The Big Four rely on inter - bank liabilities and borrowing from the central bank to support asset expansion [1]. Bond Market Situation - In Q2 2025, the central bank was extremely accommodative. Since early June, the DR001 rate has often been below 1.4%. This has led to a significant increase in bond market leverage and bond fund duration. On June 20, the average duration of medium - and long - term bond funds reached 5.0 years, and the 10Y and 30Y treasury bond yields declined [1]. - The trading volume of bond - pledged repurchase in the bond market has risen to near - historical extreme levels, and the bond market leverage has reached a historical high. The 10Y treasury bond yield is approaching a previous low [1]. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to be bullish on long - term urban investment bonds and bank capital bonds with yields above 2%. The investment value of interest - rate bonds is relatively low, and among interest - rate bonds, local bonds have a higher cost - performance than treasury bonds. The spread of low - rated credit bonds is expected to further compress, and it is estimated that the yield of 5Y high - grade credit bonds may reach 1.8% in the future [1]. - It is also suggested to continue to pay attention to Hong Kong - listed banks, as low domestic interest rates may drive up the valuation of high - dividend - yield targets [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - During the week of 2025/06/09 - 2025/06/13, the CSI 300 index declined by 0.25%. The overall estimated stock position of active stock and partial - stock hybrid funds increased by 0.16% to 84.90%. For bond funds, the median estimated duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, short - term pure bond funds, credit bond funds, and interest - rate bond funds all increased [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fund Stock Position Calculation - The overall estimated stock position of active stock and partial - stock hybrid funds showed an upward trend this week, reaching 84.90%, but was 3.32% lower than the quarterly report. Active stock funds' position decreased by 0.02% to 88.16%, while partial - stock hybrid funds' position increased by 0.21% to 84.14% [7]. - The overall increase or decrease in the estimated positions of active stock and partial - stock hybrid funds was mostly concentrated in the range of [0%, 1%) with 568 funds, followed by [-1%, 0%) with 215 funds. Funds with a scale of less than 20 billion and 50 - 80 billion slightly increased their positions, while other scale funds slightly reduced their positions [11]. - In terms of investment style, growth stocks accounted for a higher proportion in fund holdings. This week, value stocks had a slight increase in position, and growth stocks had a slight decrease. The proportion of small - cap stocks in fund holdings was relatively high. This week, large - cap stocks had a slight decrease, while mid - cap and small - cap stocks had a slight increase [15]. - The top 5 industries held by active stock and partial - stock hybrid funds this week were electronics (13.97%), power equipment (9.12%), pharmaceutical biology (6.89%), automobiles (6.52%), and machinery and equipment (5.75%). The top 3 industries for position increase were petroleum and petrochemicals (+0.28%), non - ferrous metals (+0.22%), and light manufacturing (+0.10%); the top 3 industries for position reduction were electronics (-0.21%), food and beverages (-0.15%), and machinery and equipment (-0.09%) [4][18]. 3.2 Bond Fund Duration Calculation - The yield to maturity of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond increased by 1bps this week. The median estimated duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.37 to 3.35 years, reaching the 100.00% percentile in the past 5 years. The median estimated duration of short - term pure bond funds increased by 0.06 to 0.95 years [4][21]. - The median estimated duration of credit bond funds increased by 0.20 to 2.81 years, with 8% of funds being actively operated and 24% being conservatively operated. The median estimated duration of interest - rate bond funds increased by 0.61 to 5.12 years, with 55% of funds being actively operated and 5% being conservatively operated [4]. - The estimated duration of credit bond funds this week was concentrated in the range of [2.5, 3) with 156 funds, followed by [2, 2.5) with 147 funds. The estimated duration of interest - rate bond funds was concentrated in the range of [5,) with 192 funds, followed by [4.5, 5) with 48 funds [28]. - Among credit bond funds, 7.65% of funds had an actively operated duration, and 24.33% had a conservatively operated duration. Among interest - rate bond funds, 54.99% of funds had an actively operated duration, and 5.41% had a conservatively operated duration [29]. - The yield to maturity of the 1 - year China Development Bank bond decreased by 0bps this week. The median estimated duration of short - term pure bond funds increased by 0.06 to 0.95 years, reaching the 89.20% percentile in the past 5 years. The estimated duration of passive policy - bank bond funds increased by 0.48 to 3.75 years [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Based on the calculation results of spot bond trading data, the central duration of all pure bond funds increased by 0.07 years to 3.15 years week-on-week this week [3]. - The median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased and the divergence decreased this week. The median 5DMA of all medium - and long - term pure bond funds reached 2.85 years, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 years, at the 99.3% quantile in the past three years, and the 5DMA of duration divergence was 0.48, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02, at the 57.4% quantile in the past three years [3]. - The median duration of short - term pure bond funds decreased and the divergence increased this week. The median 5DMA of all short - term bond funds reached 0.85 years, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 years, at the 74.2% quantile in the past three years, and the 5DMA of duration divergence was 0.49, a week - on - week increase of 0.01, at the 74.4% quantile [3]. - The turnover rate of ultra - long - term interest rate bonds decreased and most of the turnover rates of credit bonds increased this week. As of May 23, 2025, the 10DMA of the turnover rate of treasury bonds with a term of over 10 years remained flat week - on - week at 2.40%, at the 80.7% quantile level in the past three years, while the turnover rates of most 3 - 5 - year credit bonds increased [3]. - The leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased by 0.01 percentage points to 107.0% week - on - week this week. The leverage ratio of insurance companies increased by 0.20 percentage points to 125.6%, the leverage ratio of banks increased by 0.02 percentage points to 102.6%, the leverage ratio of securities companies decreased by 2.95 percentage points to 198.1%, and the leverage ratio of broad funds decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 111.8% [3]. - The scale of existing wealth management products in the whole market increased by 59.84 billion yuan week - on - week last week. The increase was in line with the seasonal level, and the net - breaking rate decreased slightly. The performance comparison benchmarks of newly issued wealth management products showed different trends for different terms [3]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Bond Fund Duration Central Point Increased - The central duration of all pure bond funds increased by 0.07 years to 3.15 years week - on - week this week [3][8]. - For medium - and long - term pure bond funds, the median duration of different types (interest - rate type, credit type, and all) showed different changes in terms of median and divergence, with most of the median durations increasing and the divergence showing different trends [3]. - For short - term pure bond funds, the median duration decreased and the divergence increased, with different trends for different types (interest - rate type and credit type) [3]. 2. This Week's Ultra - Long - Term Interest Rate Bond Turnover Rate Decreased, and Most Credit Bond Turnover Rates Increased - The turnover rates and their quantiles of different types of bonds (interest rate bonds, credit bonds, short - duration assets) for different terms are presented. For example, the 10 - year - plus treasury bond turnover rate 10DMA was 2.40% and remained flat week - on - week, at the 80.7% quantile in the past three years [3][22]. - The week - on - week changes in the turnover rates of different bonds are shown. Most 3 - 5 - year credit bond turnover rates increased [3][25]. - The turnover rates, their quantiles in the past three years, and the valuation spreads of local government bonds in different provinces and cities are provided. Sichuan, Shandong, and Anhui had relatively high local government bond turnover rates, and the 7 - 10 - year (inclusive) valuation spreads were 14.36bps, 15.03bps, and 15.37bps respectively [3][27]. 3. This Week's Allocation - Oriented Leverage Ratio Increased, and Trading - Oriented Leverage Ratio Decreased - The inter - bank bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.01 percentage points to 107.0% week - on - week. The leverage ratios of insurance companies, banks, securities companies, and broad funds changed differently, with insurance companies and banks increasing, and securities companies and broad funds decreasing [3][29]. 4. Last Week's Wealth Management Scale Increased, and the Net - Breaking Rate Decreased - The scale of existing wealth management products in the whole market increased by 59.84 billion yuan week - on - week last week, in line with the seasonal level. The net - breaking rate decreased to 0.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11pcts [3]. - By term, the scale of wealth management products within 1 month (inclusive) increased significantly, the daily - open type decreased significantly, and the scales of other terms increased slightly. By investment nature, the scale of fixed - income wealth management products increased significantly, the cash - management type decreased significantly, and other investment types increased slightly [3]. - The performance comparison benchmarks of newly issued wealth management products for different terms showed different trends, with those within 1 month (inclusive) and 1 - 3 years (inclusive) increasing, those within 6 months - 1 year (inclusive) remaining flat, and others decreasing [3].