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债市久期偏好
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债市久期偏好或相对不足
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic bond market may have a relatively insufficient preference for duration. The proportion of bonds held by institutions with a preference for longer - duration, such as commercial banks and insurance institutions, has decreased. To support macro - economic stability and control the upward pressure on yields, monetary policy is expected to provide more long - term liquidity [2] - Trump is considering the candidate for the next Fed Chair. His choice of Hassett or Warsh may be interpreted differently by the market in terms of the controllability and independence of monetary policy [2] - Upstream price indicators have further rebounded, with different trends in various commodity prices and real estate transaction data [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 High - Frequency Data Scan - **Domestic Bond Market Situation**: The year - on - year growth rate of the domestic social financing stock in November was 8.5%. The growth rate of government bonds slowed but remained at 18.8%. The year - on - year growth rate of household RMB loans dropped to about 1.1%, while enterprise financing (excluding foreign - currency loans) increased by about 7.8%. Since Q4 last year, the proportion of bonds held by commercial banks and insurance institutions in the inter - bank market bond custody volume has decreased. As of October this year, it was about 69.7%, a decrease of about 3 percentage points from the 2024 high [2] - **International Financial Situation**: The Fed meeting in the week of December 12 fulfilled the interest - rate cut expectation. However, the 10 - year government bond yields of major developed economies mainly increased this week (US Treasury bonds by 5BP, German bonds by 6BP, French bonds by 5BP, Italian bonds by 6BP, and Spanish bonds by 4BP). Trump is considering the next Fed Chair, with Hassett and Warsh as candidates [2] - **Price Index Changes**: The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.26% week - on - week and 23.73% year - on - year. The average wholesale price of 28 key vegetables increased by 0.71% week - on - week and 18.48% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 1.10% week - on - week in the week of December 5, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.09%. The domestic cement price index increased by 0.56% week - on - week, the Nanhua iron ore index decreased by 1.84% on average week - on - week. Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 1.99% and 2.03% on average week - on - week respectively. The LME copper spot price increased by 2.31% on average week - on - week, and the aluminum spot price decreased by 0.32%. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities from December 1 - 10, 2025, was about 267,000 square meters per day, compared with about 498,000 square meters per day in December 2024 [2] 3.2 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report provides a large amount of high - frequency data on various aspects, including food, other consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, real estate, and shipping, showing the week - on - week and year - on - year changes in these indicators [17][18] 3.3 Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicator Trends - The report presents multiple sets of charts comparing high - frequency data with important macro - economic indicators, such as the year - on - year change in copper spot price and the year - on - year change in industrial added value (+ year - on - year change in PPI), etc., to help analyze the relationship between high - frequency data and macro - economic indicators [21] 3.4 Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - The report shows high - frequency indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan, including US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and the implied interest - rate hike or cut prospects of central banks in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [90][95] 3.5 Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data for various indicators, such as the daily average output of crude steel (decadal), production material price index, etc., with all seasonal trend indicators being the month - on - month increase rate [103] 3.6 High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [152][153]