Group 1: Market Overview - From June 9-13, the second round of China-US negotiations became a major variable affecting interest rate trends, with tariffs remaining unchanged, benefiting bonds and gold as safe-haven assets[1] - As the tax period approached, liquidity tightened, leading to cautious short-term pricing in the bond market, with interest rates and similar rate products slowing down[1] - The one-year government bond yield struggled to break 1.4%, resulting in an overly flat yield curve[3] Group 2: Liquidity and Central Bank Actions - Market concerns about liquidity stability eased as the month progressed, with 1.83 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit successfully renewed[2] - The central bank's proactive measures included increasing the daily open market operation (OMO) injection to 202.5 billion yuan on June 13, reflecting a firm stance on liquidity support[2] - The central bank's actions shifted from implicit to explicit, effectively guiding market expectations and stabilizing funding rates[2] Group 3: Yield Curve Dynamics - Historical analysis indicates that extreme flattening of the yield curve is often linked to central bank tightening, with subsequent steepening reliant on a shift in the central bank's stance[3] - The current yield curve is at a critical point where it may transition from flat to steep, contingent on the central bank's future actions and market adaptation[3] - The 10Y-1Y yield spread is currently at 24 basis points, placing it in the 13th percentile of historical data, indicating limited room for further compression[3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - In anticipation of a potential steepening of the yield curve, investment strategies should focus on increasing duration in portfolios, particularly in 10-year non-active bonds and high-quality local government bonds[6] - The duration of interest rate bond funds has reached a historical high of 5.23 years, while credit bond funds have risen to 2.43 years, indicating heightened risk exposure in the market[6] - Despite high duration levels, the market's sensitivity to negative factors may increase, necessitating careful monitoring of market conditions[6]