Core Viewpoint - The bond market rebounded on July 15, driven by a series of significant economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, indicating resilience in the domestic economy and supporting the likelihood of achieving the annual GDP growth target of 5% [1][2]. Economic Data Summary - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was reported at 5.3%, exceeding market expectations [1]. - Industrial added value in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, up from a previous value of 5.8% [1]. - Retail sales of consumer goods in June totaled 42,287 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, down from 6.4% previously [1]. - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, compared to a previous growth of 3.7% [1]. Market Reaction - The bond market saw a significant increase, with the 30-year government bond futures rising by 0.53%, marking the largest increase since May 30 [1]. - By the end of the trading day, all government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.47% to 120.760 yuan, and the 10-year main contract up 0.18% to 108.890 yuan [2]. - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year government bond yield falling by 1.06 basis points to 1.656% [2]. Trading Behavior - The primary buyers in the bond market on July 15 were banking institutions, while brokers and funds were the main sellers [4]. Future Outlook - Southwest Securities indicated that traditional seasonal factors affecting the bond market in the third quarter may have limited impact in 2025, with overall market sentiment remaining active [5]. - Analysts noted that despite recent adjustments in the bond market, key variables influencing bond direction, such as fundamentals and central bank attitudes, have not changed [5].