1. 公开市场操作 央行 1 月 4 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 365 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 365 亿元，中标量 365 亿元。 Wind 数 据显示，当日 4701 亿元 逆回购到期 ，据此计算，单日净回笼 4336 亿元。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 3.87% 。 2. 资金面 2026 年首个交易日， 央行 公开市场逆回购操作规模明显回落，银行间市场资金宽松无忧；跨年过后，存款类机构主要回购利率普降，隔夜回购加权利率 下行逾 8 个基点回到 1.25% 关口附近。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） // 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单二级市场上最新成交在 1.625% 附近。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） | | 1Y | 2Y | ЗУ | 54 | 7Y | 10Y | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债 ...

"预期差"才是做多做空的依据，没有预期差就没有落差、没有波动。 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率涨跌不一。 央行公开市场开展3125亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有593亿元逆回购到期，净投放2532亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.24%附近，DR007因跨年小幅上至1.69%附近。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20251230— 债农：抢跑开始了吗？（-市场或预期PMI较好+资金面均衡偏松=涨跌互现】 今日股市震荡收平，债市或预期PMI较好，利率总体上行。 隔夜商品市场大幅波动。早盘债市情绪平稳，10Y国债利率微幅高开在1.86%后窄幅震荡。股市震荡收平，消息面平静，上午利率最低下至1.85%。午后或 担忧明日PMI数据较好，利率再度回升至1.86%。 -------------------------- -------------------------- -------------------------- | BDDBBLA W | - | Alice | 0 | × | 开始 股票 债券 商品 外汇 | 慕会 搭数 衍生品 AMS Advisor 家观 资讯 企业 发现 | EDB | H ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, highlighting a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment, with a focus on the performance of the stock and bond markets during the holiday season. Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market continues to show strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a seven-day rally, indicating a "Christmas rally" effect among investors [4] - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the US dollar, reflecting a positive sentiment in the currency market [3][4] - The bond market shows a slight increase in long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8375% [3][4] Group 2: Liquidity and Interest Rates - The central bank conducted a net liquidity injection of 188.8 billion yuan through reverse repos and MLF operations, contributing to a balanced liquidity environment [1] - The overnight and seven-day repo rates are stable, with DR001 around 1.26% and DR007 slightly rising to 1.48% due to year-end factors [1] - The weighted average rates for various repos indicate a slight decrease in transaction volumes, with R001 at 1.36% and R007 at 1.52% [2]

国债期货方面 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2025 年 12 月 15 日 债市观点及组合策略推荐 债券择券思路及个券关注 债券策略周报 20251215 当前债市策略的三个问题 glmszqdatemark [Table_Author] 分析师 徐亮 执业证书： S0590525110037 邮箱： xliang@glms.com.cn 针对当前债券市场，建议投资者可以关注三个问题： 1.为什么投资者在 30 年利率修复后的离场情绪浓厚？以 30 年活跃券 25T6 来衡 量本轮行情，其从 11 月中旬 2.13%左右上行 15BP 至 2.28%左右，其修复行情 从高点回落超过 8BP。如果投资者认为债市可以反转变好，那么继续关注利率下 行机会是合适的；但如果认为是反弹行情，在利率修复上行幅度的一半后，其继 续修复的空间和可能性则较小，此时应该及时降低关注。而当前可能使得债市反 转向好的因素需要关注两点，即央行是否在短期有降息可能性、银行保险等配置 力量有没有明显增加迹象。预计这两点在明年一季度中后期可能较为明显。 2.在 30-10Y 利差明显走扩后，1 ...

资料来源：DM查债通 此前据本报记者报道，短期债基本身的收益率已处于较低水平，新规预计将继续压缩其收益空间，对短 债基金较为不利。 许多机构资金使用短债基金进行流动性管理，习惯于快进快出，明确赎回费后，可能导致其投资收益大 幅缩水。 利率债方面，相比此前多日接连下跌的走势，截至10日下午发稿时，多数品种以上涨为主。 从1年期到超长期国债品种，收益率当日均实现1bp以内的小幅下行。国开债、口行债和农发债则呈现分 化格局，短端品种表现偏弱，中长端品种则出现小幅上涨。 回顾近期债市的大幅调整，部分投资机构一度表示"有点慌"，市场情绪偏向空头，卖盘力量占据主导， 超长期债券面临的抛压尤为明显。 12月4日，30年期超长债收益率在当天盘中曾单日上行4个基点；12月8日盘中，30年期国债期货价格一 度跌至111.69元，创下年内新低。10年期国债活跃券250016的收益率从12月1日的1.82%上升至12月4日 最高的1.86%，随后在1.84%附近区间波动。 记者注意到，临近跨年，央行对资金面的呵护意图依然明显，整体维持相对宽松的环境，成为市场的一 大"稳定器"。银银间市场资金面整体保持稳定，DR001加权平均利率持续 ...

智通财经12月8日讯（编辑 杨斌）今日，30年国债活跃券收益率延续上行态势，盘中一度上行超2BP， 午后上行幅度有所收窄。 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.29%报112.240元，10年期主力合约涨0.02%报107.910元， 5年期主力合约跌0.01%报105.745元，2年期主力合约持平于102.412元。 银行间主要利率债收益率多数上行，截至下午16:30分，10年期国债活跃券250016收益率上行0.55bp报 1.834%，10年期国开债活跃券250215收益率上行0.6bp至1.931%，30年期国债活跃券2500006收益率上行 0.45bp至2.256%。 | | 利率债二级 信用债二级 NCD二级 NCD二级 CD 基准 ● 前收 | | | | | | | ● 估值 ·· | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1Y 2Y 200 - 11 - 11 3Y 34 11 11 11 100 74 74 11 11 11 | | | | SY S | | 10Y 10 Year ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of using rational analysis to navigate market fluctuations while aligning with the prevailing market trends, rather than attempting to predict market tops or bottoms [1]. Group 1: Macro Economic Indicators - The November PMI data met expectations, with the official manufacturing PMI reported at 49.2, indicating a stable economic outlook [5]. - The central bank reportedly purchased 200 billion yuan in bonds in November, contributing to a mixed performance in the stock market, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3900 points [5]. - The central bank conducted a 107.6 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan due to 338.7 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [3]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The weighted rates for various repo codes showed slight decreases, with R001 at 1.37% (down 5 basis points) and R007 at 1.49% (down 3 basis points) [4]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated around 1.83%, with the lowest rate dropping to 1.822% before slightly recovering to 1.8275% [5]. - The interest rates for government bonds varied, with the 1-year bond at 1.40% and the 10-year bond at 1.8275%, reflecting a range of changes across different maturities [7].

Group 1 - The report suggests that in the absence of strong expectations for short-term interest rate cuts, both long-term government bond yields and short-term deposit rates are unlikely to decline significantly. The market currently does not anticipate easing of short-term funds or a reduction in LPR [1][8][37] - It is recommended to focus on two strategies for portfolio construction: 1. Opt for slightly lower duration for defensive positioning, waiting for a rate adjustment of around 5 basis points before considering extending duration; 2. Maintain a market-neutral or slightly longer duration stance, with risk exposure suggested to be placed in active bonds where spreads can compress, such as government bonds and ultra-long government bonds [1][8][40] Group 2 - For bond selection, the report emphasizes prioritizing long-term interest rate bonds, particularly focusing on 250215. If there is a higher frequency demand for duration adjustment, 25T6 should be considered. For higher yield bonds like 25T5 and 25T3, attention should gradually decrease as spreads compress further [2][10][12] - In the context of credit bonds, the report notes that the spread between 3-5 year credit bonds and government bonds is already low, indicating limited room for further compression. It is suggested to focus on mid-term government bonds for short-term capital gains, while mid to long-term credit bonds may offer better value for long-term holding [3][13] Group 3 - The report indicates that the current overall IRR level of government bond futures is slightly higher than the funding rate, with most futures contracts being relatively expensive compared to cash bonds. The strategy of focusing on the compression of spreads between government bonds and government-backed bonds is recommended [4][14] - The report highlights that the bond market has maintained a volatile trend, with government bonds showing stronger performance. Despite weak financial and economic data in October, interest rates have not significantly declined, and the market sentiment towards bonds remains cautious [15][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of monetary policy, indicating that while there is still some room for adjustment, the marginal efficiency of such policies has significantly declined, suggesting that interest rate cuts are unlikely this year [7]. Monetary Policy and Economic Data - The central bank conducted a 2,128 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 711 billion yuan after 1,417 billion yuan matured [3]. - The overnight rates have slightly increased, with DR001 around 1.37% and DR007 at approximately 1.47% [4]. - October economic data appears weak, with the stock market experiencing a pullback, falling below 4,000 points, and the central bank continuing to implement reverse repurchase operations [6]. - The bond market showed stability with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.804% [6]. Market Reactions - The article notes that the market quickly understood the implications of the central bank's statements regarding monetary policy, leading to a consensus that interest rate cuts are unlikely this year [7]. - There is a contrast between the experiences of stockholders, who may feel positive about the economy, and those in the labor market, who face different challenges [7]. Bond Market Performance - The weighted rates for various repurchase agreements indicate a slight decrease in transaction volumes, with R001 at 1.43% and R007 at 1.49%, reflecting a decrease in trading activity [5]. - The government bond yields for different maturities show a range of rates, with the 10-year bond at 1.8050% and longer-term bonds yielding higher rates [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of the central bank regarding bond purchases and their impact on the market, highlighting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid fluctuating market conditions [3][5][6]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The central bank conducted a 200 billion yuan bond purchase in October, which was lower than market expectations, leading to a slight increase in interest rates before stabilizing [5][6]. - A total of 1175 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos was executed, with a net withdrawal of 3578 billion yuan due to the maturity of 4753 billion yuan in reverse repos [3]. - The central bank plans to conduct a 7000 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation with a 3-month term, indicating a strategy to manage liquidity in the market [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The stock market experienced a slight decline, attributed to the lower-than-expected bond purchase by the central bank, which caused temporary fluctuations in interest rates [5][6]. - Global stock markets showed poor performance, influenced by concerns over potential AI bubble bursts and other macroeconomic factors, while the domestic banking sector remained relatively stable [6]. - The bond market reacted to the central bank's actions, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.79% following the announcement of the bond purchase [5][6]. Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - The weighted average rates for various repo transactions remained stable, with R001 at 1.36% and R007 at 1.46%, indicating a balanced liquidity environment [4]. - The interest rates for government bonds showed slight variations, with the 10-year bond yield at 1.7900% and other maturities reflecting minor changes [8]. - The overall trend in interest rates suggests a cautious approach by the central bank to maintain stability in the financial system while addressing liquidity needs [3][4].