1. 公开市场操作 央行 9 月 29 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 2886 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 2886 亿元，中标量 2886 亿 元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 2405 亿元 逆回购到期 ，据此计算，单日净投放 481 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 银行间市场周一资金面整体平稳均衡，季末结构性矛盾凸显，月内隔夜资金充沛，跨季资金价格仍居高；存款类机构隔夜回购加权利率回到逼近 1.3% 一 线，为逾两年低点。 （IMM） 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.18% 。 // 债市综述 // （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单二级市场上最新成交在 1.685% 附近。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | | 1 Y | 2Y | ЗУ | 54 | 7Y | 10Y | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国債 | 1.3550 0 ...

Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 28, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 181.7 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank funding market is relatively loose due to the absence of non-bank institutions as a significant demand side, leading to a slight decrease in the overnight repo weighted average rate, while the 7-day rate increased by over 2 basis points [3] - The overnight financing rate in the U.S. is currently at 4.18% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market is around 1.695% [6] Major Interbank Bond Yield Rates - The yields for various government bonds are as follows: - 1Y: 1.3500% - 2Y: 1.4500% - 3Y: 1.2650% - 5Y: 1.6150% - 7Y: 1.8050% - 10Y: 1.8000% [10] Recent City Investment Bonds (AAA) Yield Spread Trends - The article provides insights into the yield spread trends for city investment bonds, indicating market conditions [11] Upcoming Market Events - A total of 516.6 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature in the week of September 29 to October 3, with significant amounts maturing on Monday and Tuesday [12] - The three major exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen will be closed from October 1 to October 8 for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [12] Global Macro Insights - Key Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak this week, which may influence market expectations regarding monetary policy [14] - U.S. President Trump is set to meet with congressional leaders to discuss funding issues, with significant divisions remaining between parties [14]

Group 1 - The bond market sentiment is currently weak, with a poor profit effect, and significant downward movement in interest rates requires strong event-driven stimuli, such as large-scale bond purchases, central bank rate cuts, or significant declines in equity markets [1][8] - The 10-year government bond yield has been fluctuating around 1.8%, with potential for both upward and downward movement, but a rebound opportunity is more likely if the yield approaches 1.9% [1][8] - The report suggests maintaining a slightly lower duration in bond portfolios and focusing on a barbell structure due to the difficulty in significantly steepening the yield curve in a weak market environment [2][39] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of selecting specific bonds, with a focus on the 30-year government bond 25T6, which is expected to become the next main bond due to its good liquidity and upcoming issuance [3][12] - The yield spread between 25T6 and 25T2 is currently around 10 basis points, with expectations that this spread will compress to about 6 basis points as 25T6 gains prominence [12] - The report also emphasizes the need to monitor the impact of new regulations on fund redemptions, which may lead to increased volatility in certain bond types [2][39] Group 3 - The report indicates that the current bond yield valuations are not expensive compared to other asset classes, but the profit effect from bonds remains weak, making them less attractive [27][28] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to be around 1.93% in the coming month, reflecting a weak outlook based on the constructed interest rate prediction model [23][24] - The report notes that the yield curve is expected to remain relatively flat, with short-term government bonds showing more resilience compared to long-term bonds [38][39]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of not allowing cognitive biases to predict the market, advocating for a strict adherence to entry and exit principles for each trade [1] - It highlights the current balanced funding situation, with a slight decrease in long-term bond yields [3][5] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 483.5 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 3.5 billion yuan after 487 billion yuan matured [3][5] Group 2 - The overnight market remained calm, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.815% and peaking at 1.836%, reflecting cautious sentiment in the bond market [5][6] - The article discusses the shift in economic narratives, from "South Wall Economics" last year to "Narrative Economics" this year, indicating a change in market sentiment and expectations [6] - The article provides detailed interest rate data for various bonds, showing fluctuations in yields across different maturities [9]

Group 1 - The report discusses the need to hold bonds during the upcoming National Day holiday, emphasizing that capital gains are limited unless certain conditions are met, such as a drop in bond yields to attractive levels and improved market sentiment [1][6][34] - It highlights that the current 10-year government bond yield is around 1.8%, with potential for both upward and downward movement, but the expectation for bond profit is weak [1][6][34] - The report suggests that short-term bond strategies focusing on 1Y deposits, 1-2Y credit sinking, and 2-3Y high-grade credit are advisable, while caution is advised for 5Y and longer credits due to limited capital gain potential [2][7][35] Group 2 - The yield curve is currently steep, particularly in the medium to long-term segments, with short-term bonds expected to be more resilient against declines [2][7][35] - The report recommends maintaining a slightly lower duration in bond portfolios and suggests that investors wait for further adjustments before seeking rebound opportunities [2][7][36] - It emphasizes the importance of flexibility in portfolio management due to the weak market environment, advocating for a barbell strategy focusing on short-term deposits and higher-yielding credits [2][7][36] Group 3 - The report identifies specific bonds to focus on, including 7Y and 10Y government bonds, and suggests monitoring the liquidity of certain bonds for potential trading opportunities [3][8][9] - It notes that the current basis level for the TL2512 futures contract is relatively low, indicating that futures prices are cheaper compared to cash bonds [3][11] - The report provides a weekly review of bond market performance, indicating that long-term rates have shown weakness while mid-term rates performed slightly better [12][17]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 12, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 230 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - The total amount of reverse repos maturing on the same day was 188.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 41.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The overnight repurchase weighted average rate for deposit institutions slightly decreased by less than 1 basis point, remaining at 1.35% [3] - Non-bank institutions borrowed overnight funds using certificates of deposit and credit bonds as collateral, with rates dropping to around 1.40% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the US was reported at 4.39% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market was approximately 1.6764% [7] Group 4: Treasury Futures Closing - The 30-year main contract rose by 0.38%, while the 10-year main contract increased by 0.06% [13] - The 5-year main contract saw a slight increase of 0.01%, whereas the 2-year main contract fell by 0.03% [13] Group 5: Fiscal Policy and Economic Indicators - The Minister of Finance announced that the general public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan over the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, an increase of 24% compared to the previous plan [14] - The central bank reported that the social financing scale increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, which is 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [15] - The broad money (M2) balance reached 331.98 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [15] Group 6: Global Macro - The European Central Bank decided to maintain its current policy, indicating that inflation pressures have been effectively contained and the Eurozone economy remains stable [17] Group 7: Bond Market Events - Recent negative events in the bond market include significant lawsuits and downgrades in implied ratings for various companies, such as Suning and Zhonghai [19]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 11, with a fixed rate and a total of 292 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being bid and awarded [1] - On the same day, 212.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 79.4 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The funding environment improved, with the overnight repo weighted average rate for deposit-taking institutions falling over 5 basis points back below 1.4% [3] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system decreased to 1.35%, while non-bank institutions' pledging certificates and credit bonds were around 1.45% [3] - The latest overnight financing guarantee rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.40% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market was around 1.68% [9] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The closing prices for government bonds showed a majority increase, with the 10-year main contract rising by 0.07% and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.14% [13] Group 5: Recent Policy Developments - The State Council approved a two-year pilot program for market-oriented allocation of factors in ten regions, focusing on key areas and issues in factor market construction [14] - The pilot program aims to explore market-oriented allocation of talent and facilitate cross-border capital flows [14] Group 6: Global Macro Insights - U.S. President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, urging for immediate significant interest rate cuts, claiming there is "no inflation" in the U.S. [16] Group 7: Bond Market Events - Longguang Group reached a revised agreement with creditors regarding offshore debt restructuring [18] - R&F Properties proposed an overall domestic bond restructuring plan for its domestic bondholders [18] - New Power Real Estate and its subsidiaries faced overdue debts totaling 15.66 billion yuan [18]

Group 1 - The report suggests that in the current weak bond market, maintaining a bullet-type portfolio may lead to instability in liabilities, while adopting a trading strategy could enhance returns despite limited execution time and space [1][6][35] - It is recommended to focus on whether interest rates are oversold and if there is a short-term downward adjustment opportunity, as the probability of significant upward movement in interest rates remains low [1][6][35] - The current high level of the futures long-short ratio indicates that short-selling pressure is weak, suggesting that prices are not oversold, with the average cost of 10-year government bonds held by funds around 1.8% [2][7][17] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that if market sentiment reverses and interest rates decline smoothly, a shift back to a buy-on-dips strategy could be considered, although this requires specific events such as a central bank rate cut [2][3][36] - Investors are advised to focus on active long-term interest rate bonds, with expected volatility for 10-year government bonds in the range of 1.7-1.8% [2][3][36] - The report highlights the importance of selecting bonds based on the yield curve and value, recommending specific bonds such as 25T6 for long-term interest rate bonds and 240208 for medium-term bonds [12][9][10] Group 3 - In the context of credit bonds, the report notes that while the funding environment remains loose, attention should be gradually shifted away from medium to long-term credit bonds due to potential funding fluctuations in the upcoming months [3][12] - The report indicates that the performance of TF and T contracts has been relatively better than cash bonds, with the TL main contract being cheaper [3][13] - The report provides a weekly review of the bond market, noting a slight decline in overall interest rates, with short-term bonds performing better under the current conditions [14][15][16]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 229.1 billion yuan for 7 days at a fixed rate of 1.40% on September 3, with a total bid amount of 229.1 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 229.1 billion yuan. On the same day, 379.9 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - Continuous net withdrawals by the central bank do not hinder the gradual easing of the interbank funding market at the beginning of the month. The overnight repurchase rate for deposit-taking institutions slightly decreased, remaining around 1.31%. The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system stayed unchanged at 1.30%, with supply around 100 billion yuan. Non-bank institutions borrowed overnight using certificates of deposit and credit bonds as collateral, with the latest quotes around 1.4%, slightly down from the previous day, while the 7-day rate concentrated around 1.45% [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.66%, remaining basically unchanged from the previous day [8]. Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined. The yields for various government bonds are as follows: - 1Y: 1.3650% - 2Y: 1.3775% - 5Y: 1.5860% - 10Y: 1.7500% - 30Y: 1.9990% [10]. Group 5: Recent Treasury Auctions - The Ministry of Finance's weighted average yields for 63-day, 91-day, and 182-day treasury bonds were 1.2018%, 1.2352%, and 1.3101%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.08, 2.84, and 2.36 [15]. Group 6: Global Macro Insights - According to the latest forecast from South Korea's Ministry of Strategy and Finance, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise from 49.1% this year to 51.6% by 2026, and further to 58% by 2029. The ministry warns that without structural reforms, a fiscal crisis may occur [17].

Group 1 - The current bond market shows limited differences in yields across various maturities, suggesting a focus on specific bonds with strong liquidity and unique characteristics [1] - The 10-year government bond spread is around -1 basis point, with a preference for main bonds, while the 30-year bond is experiencing a widening spread of 6 basis points [1] - New 10-year and 30-year government bonds are set to be issued, but the progress of switching bonds may be slow due to VAT implications [1] Group 2 - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has the best performance in terms of controlling drawdown during the recent bond market adjustment, with a net asset value that remains stable [2] - The table provided shows various ETFs, their sizes, recent performance, and drawdown metrics, highlighting the Ping An ETF's significant drawdown control of -0.5018% [2] - The data indicates that the Ping An ETF has a scale of 22.351 billion and a recent weekly return of 23.55% [2]