三月债市能平稳吗：几个关键点 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 本报告导读： 3 月债市或维持震荡，但季末有变盘可能。 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 市 场 策 投资要点： | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | | | 杜润琛(分析师) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525110004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 高位震荡延续，低估值防守为先 2026.02.28 2025 银行经营指标拆解：分层扩张 vs 趋同修复 2026.02.25 票息行情未止：接续力量和可挖掘的标的 2026.02.24 节前蓄势，节后可期 2026.02.23 节前冲高回落，多头趋势还在 ...

固定收益月报 货币增强新方向与两会前后日历效应 核心结论二：回顾临近两会的日历效应，春节至两会期间通常在信贷发力、 政策预期升温等因素影响下为传统的债市调整窗口；两会期间市场多进入震 荡；两会结束后至4月政治局会议通常为经济数据验证期，叠加信贷"开门红" 结束后配债力量回归，债市通常走强。但仍需注意在流动性收紧（2025）、 极致资产荒（2024）等影响下，日历效应可能失效，需以当年宏观主线为准。 今年两会需重点关注：财政与地产政策预期差、宽货币预期的再校准、银行 季末负债稳定性与配债持续性。 3月展望：央行公开市场投放或将继续保持积极，利率高位磨顶阶段建议逢调 整适度拉长久期。 资金面看，2月资金利率低位运行，央行月内重启14D逆回购、全月公开市场 操作净投放近8000亿元，全月银行体系资金面合理充裕、大型银行资金融出 量保持高位；预计在"财政金融协同支持扩内需"与"引导短期货币市场利 率更好围绕央行政策利率平稳运行"的政策指引下央行公开市场投放或继续 保持积极，资金利率将保持低位运行。此外，考虑到当前多只30Y老券税后 利率超过了个人住房贷款利率的税后值，30Y-10Y国债利差向上逼近50BP， 超长债性 ...

【内容摘要】2月27日，资金面稳中向宽，主要回购利率继续下行；债市止跌回暖；转债市场主要指数集体收跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普 遍下行，主要欧洲经济体10年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【中共中央政治局召开会议，讨论"十五五"规划纲要草案和政府工作报告】中共中央政治局2月27日召开会议，讨论国务院拟提请第十四届全国人民代表大 会第四次会议审查的中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要草案稿和审议的《政府工作报告》稿。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会 议强调，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，强化改革举措与宏观政策协同。要着力建设强大国内市场，加紧培育壮大新动能，加快高 水平科技自立自强。持续深化重点领域改革，进一步扩大高水平对外开放，扎实推进乡村全面振兴，推动新型城镇化和区域协调发展。更大力度保障和改善 民生，加快推动全面绿色转型，加强重点领域风险防范化解和安全能力建设。要加强政府自身建设，牢固树立和践行正确政绩观。 【远期售汇业务外汇风险准备金率下调至0】央行2月27日宣布，为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，自2026年3月2日起，将 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Travel increased significantly during the Spring Festival in 2026, with 5.5 billion cross - regional trips during the first 21 days of the Spring Festival travel rush, a 6% year - on - year increase. The daily flow exceeded 300 million after February 18, and approached 400 million on February 22 [1][11]. - Policies such as "Happy Shopping during the Spring Festival" drove strong consumption. The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises in the first four days of the Spring Festival holiday increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025. The passenger flow and turnover of 78 key pedestrian streets (business districts) monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased by 4.5% and 4.8% respectively in the first three days of the holiday [1][14]. - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled the IEEPA tariffs illegal, but Trump ordered a 15% tariff on all imported goods. The U.S. Q4 GDP growth rate was only 1.4%, and the core PCE was 3%, higher than the previous value [1][19]. - During the Spring Festival, most major global assets rose. Crude oil and natural gas in commodities increased significantly, and the stock markets in South Korea, the Eurozone, and the UK rose by 5.5%, 2.4%, and 2.3% respectively, while the Hong Kong stock market underperformed, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 2.8% [2][19]. - The capital market remained stable, and the bond market may fluctuate. The 10Y Treasury bond rate broke below 1.8% before the holiday, and the further downward space of interest rates is limited. It is recommended to focus on coupon strategies and opportunities for narrowing spreads [2][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - Before the holiday, institutional willingness to hold bonds increased, and the central bank's net injection led to a decline in bond yields. The 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond yields decreased by 2bp and 0.5bp respectively. The bond market showed different trends on different days of the week [10]. - The Spring Festival travel rush had a large passenger flow, and consumption was strong. Movie box office and real - estate sales had different performances. Overseas, the U.S. economy slowed down, and inflation remained high [11][14][19]. - The capital market remained stable, and the bond market may fluctuate. It is necessary to pay attention to policy expectations during the Two Sessions, external tariff changes, and the equity market [20]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Capital Market - The central bank's net injection before the holiday was 139.69 billion yuan. After the holiday, the maturity volume of reverse repurchase was larger. The capital interest rate decreased, and the 3M certificate of deposit issuance rate and FR007 - 1Y swap rate showed different trends [28][29]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Bond yields declined before the holiday. Except for the 3m Treasury bond, the yields of other key - term Treasury bonds decreased. Most of the term spreads of Treasury bonds widened [38]. - The spread between new and old 10Y Treasury bonds continued to decline, and the negative spread of 10Y China Development Bank bonds widened. The spread between the second - active and active 30Y Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly [40]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - As of February 14, the weekly turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds decreased, the 50Y - 30Y and 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spreads widened, the inter - bank leverage ratio decreased to 107.3%, the exchange leverage ratio increased to 123.5%, the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased, and the median duration of interest - rate bond funds increased slightly. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds widened [45]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - The net financing of interest - rate bonds increased before the holiday. The net financing of Treasury bonds and local government bonds decreased, while that of policy - financial bonds increased. The issuance scale of Treasury bonds will increase in the last week of February, and that of local bonds will decrease [61][64][65]. - The inter - bank certificate of deposit changed from net financing to net repayment before the holiday, and the average issuance rate decreased slightly [66]. 3.3 Economic Data - The Spring Festival month - shift affected the CPI decline, and the PPI improved year - on - year. The financial data in January had a stable start [70]. - Since February, movie consumption was weaker than the seasonal level, and the freight rate index improved marginally. Real - estate transactions were weak, and industrial production weakened marginally [71]. - Recent infrastructure and price high - frequency data showed that production indicators decreased month - on - month, and most price indicators weakened [75]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The U.S. core PCE returned to 3%, and the economic growth rate slowed down. The Fed had different views on future policies [80]. - The U.S. bond market declined, and emerging markets had more declines than increases. The spread between Chinese and U.S. 10Y Treasury bonds narrowed [81][83]. 3.5 Major Assets - The CSI 300 index rose slightly before the holiday. Shanghai gold rose, and the Nanhua crude oil index adjusted. The performance of major assets was: CSI 1000 > Shanghai gold > Convertible bonds > CSI 300 > Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds > China bonds > Shanghai copper > Rebar > U.S. dollar > Live pigs > Crude oil [87]. 3.6 Bond Market Calendar - There are reverse repurchase maturities, MLF maturities, and government bond issuances from February 24 to February 28. There are also important economic data releases and corporate earnings calls during this period [92].

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 23 日 [Table_Title] 节后债市应对指南 （一）2 月利率破位下行，三股推力 2 月以来，债市延续强势行情，10 年国债收益率成功突破 1.80%阻力位，由 1.81%下行至 1.78%。期间交易 型品种表现更为突出，5 年、30 年国债收益率均下行 4bp 至 1.54%、2.25%，5 年、7 年、10 年国开债收益率分 别下行 5bp、6bp、4bp 至 1.74%、1.86%、1.95%，3 年、5 年二级资本债收益率降幅更是达到 5bp、8bp。 长端利率超预期突破箱体的背后，主要有三股推力。首先是配置盘供需错位叙事或仍在延续。尽管 2 月政府 债发行速度较 1 月边际提升，单月净供给规模由 1.18 万亿元提升至 1.38 万亿元，但银行负债或始终处于相对充裕 的状态。2025 年 12 月与 2026 年 1 月，大型银行境内存款增幅分别为 1.59、4.17 万亿元，远超过去五年同期季 节性均值 0.03、2.75 万亿元；中小型银行增幅分别为 1.21、2.44 万亿元，同样位于历史同期高位水平。叠加 ...

债 券 研 春节期间不可错过的事情 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 国内篇 本报告导读： 经济复苏节奏延续温和，呵护债市偏多环境，但需关注海外风险偏好回升带来的扰 动。 投资要点： 风险提示：流动性超预期收紧；经济修复大幅加速；债券供给放量。 | | | | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | | | 杜润琛(分析师) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525110004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 央行视角下的货币财政协同与存款搬 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a bullish trend supported by ample liquidity and institutional demand, with yields dropping below the critical 1.8% level as investors prefer bonds over other assets ahead of the holiday [1][3] - Major banks have become the primary buyers in the bond market, driven by a "deposit-loan mismatch" phenomenon, which has led to increased bond allocations since December [2][6] - The central bank's recent actions, including a net injection of 448 billion yuan into the market, have contributed to a favorable environment for bonds, with interbank liquidity remaining abundant [3][6] Group 2 - As of February 12, 2026, the yield on the 10-year government bond has decreased to around 1.77%, reflecting a broader trend of declining yields across various maturities [3][4] - A significant majority of bond funds have delivered positive returns since the beginning of 2026, with 3523 out of 3574 medium to long-term pure bond funds achieving positive returns [4][5] - The current market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations for a relatively mild bond market environment in 2026, as banks are likely to continue favoring long-term bonds due to improved cost structures and ample liquidity [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The overall financial environment is tightening, with rising repo rates and fluctuations in bond markets, while the central bank emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize prices [2][8]. Domestic News - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, while ensuring sufficient liquidity in the banking system [2]. - In 2025, China's total social logistics reached 368.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, indicating stable logistics demand and strong support for the real economy [3]. International News - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stagnated in December, with a month-on-month change of 0%, raising concerns about consumer spending, which is a key driver of U.S. economic growth [4]. - The New York Fed reported a significant rise in consumer debt delinquency rates, reaching 4.8%, the highest level in nearly a decade, with total household debt hitting a record high of $18.78 trillion [5]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed strong fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield falling below 1.80%, supported by institutional demand [9]. - On February 10, the 10-year government bond yield decreased by 0.50 basis points to 1.7950%, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield increased by 0.10 basis points to 1.9220% [10]. Credit Bonds - In the secondary market, several industrial bonds experienced significant price deviations, with some bonds dropping over 50% [11]. - Dragon Food's credit rating was downgraded from "A-" to "BBB" by a credit rating agency, maintaining a negative outlook [12]. Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline, with major indices dropping around 0.23% to 0.24%, and trading volume decreasing by 101.62 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [22]. - Upcoming listings include Longjian Convertible Bonds, and several companies announced early redemption conditions for their convertible bonds [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - holiday bond market continued to recover mainly because the pressure on the bank's asset - liability gap was lower than expected. Factors included government bond digestion pressure not being too high, most due deposits being renewed, and an increase in the speed of foreign exchange settlement under the expectation of RMB appreciation [6][9]. - Since 2025, the "quantity and price decline" of large - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) has often led to a downward repair of bond market interest rates. After the holiday, it is necessary to focus on whether CDs can continue the pre - holiday trend of "quantity and price decline" [6][9][11]. - The key to whether bond interest rates can continue to break through after reaching critical points depends on whether CD interest rates can "as expected" continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint: Pay Attention to Whether CDs Can Continue the "Quantity and Price Decline" after the Holiday - The pre - holiday bond market recovery was due to three factors: government bond high growth not causing much digestion pressure, bank deposit loss not being serious as most due deposits were renewed, and the positive impact of increased foreign exchange settlement on the bond market [6][9]. - The "quantity and price decline" of large - bank CDs since 2025 has been correlated with the downward repair of bond market interest rates, and this time is no exception [6][9]. - After the holiday, it is necessary to observe whether there are more factors to ease the bank's liability pressure and whether the central bank will reduce other ways of base money injection [11]. - Since the end of 2024, CD interest rates have often shown "anti - seasonal" fluctuations, and it is worth noting whether they will continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: The Supply Scale of Interest - Bearing Bonds Remains at a High Level in the Same Period 2.1 This Week's Domestic Inflation and Financial Data Will Be Released - China will announce January CPI, PPI and other data, and the US will announce January unemployment rate and other data [15][16]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance Is Expected to Be Around 712.1 Billion - The total issuance of interest - bearing bonds this week is expected to reach 712.1 billion. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to issue 210 billion, local bonds 322.1 billion, and policy - financial bonds about 180 billion [17][18]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds: Bond Market Interest Rates Mostly Decline 3.1 The 14 - day Reverse Repurchase Injection Started - After the month - end, the scale of open - market operation injections decreased. The 7 - day reverse repurchase scale decreased last week, and the 14 - day reverse repurchase injection started in the second half of the week, with a net withdrawal of 756 billion [22][23]. - The increase in cross - month capital interest rates was controllable. The repurchase trading volume increased, and the overnight proportion reached a high level. The overnight price and DR007 both declined [23]. - The issuance volume of CDs increased, and the price continued to decline. The net financing amount of CDs was positive, and the proportion of medium - term CDs decreased [29]. 3.2 The Bond Market Sentiment Remained Optimistic - Last week, there was little new information in the bond market. After the month - end, funds were loose, and the equity and commodity markets mostly declined. The bond market sentiment remained optimistic, and most interest rates declined [39]. - The 10Y treasury bond reached a critical point, and more catalysts may be needed for a downward breakthrough. Most yields of interest - bearing bonds with different maturities declined, with only the 1 - year treasury bond yield rising slightly [39]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Most Commodity Prices Were Hit - On the production side, the trends of operating rates were divergent. The blast furnace and PTA operating rates increased, while the semi - steel tire and asphalt operating rates decreased. The year - on - year decline in the daily average crude steel output in late January widened [45]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales were still negative. The land premium rate in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased, and the land transaction area increased. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased significantly compared with the same period of last Spring Festival. The export indices declined [45]. - On the price side, most commodity prices declined. Crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices decreased, and the price of coking coal futures also decreased. The comprehensive building materials price index and cement index decreased slightly, while the glass index increased. The price of downstream consumer products such as vegetables and pork mostly declined [46].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to show strength, with government bond futures rising across the board and interbank bond yields generally declining, indicating a positive sentiment ahead of the Chinese New Year [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.14% at 112.73, the 10-year contract up 0.06% at 108.49, the 5-year contract up 0.08% at 106.025, and the 2-year contract up 0.04% at 102.484 [2]. - The yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" decreased by 0.7 basis points to 1.795%, while the yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开20" fell by 2.25 basis points to 1.94% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 5.54 basis points to 3.498% and the 10-year yield rising by 2.99 basis points to 4.206% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese government bond yields also saw significant increases, with the 5-year and 10-year yields rising by 4.9 basis points and 5.4 basis points, respectively [3]. Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had successful bids with yields of 1.4406% for 1.0356-year, 1.5793% for 3-year, and 1.9286% for 10-year bonds, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.08, 2.89, and 4.42 respectively [4]. - The 10-year "26陕西债04" bond had a yield of 1.92% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 34.64, indicating strong demand [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 1130 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 380 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate down 0.7 basis points to 1.27% and the 7-day rate up 7.0 basis points to 1.505% [5]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that the bond market is warming up due to reduced profitability in equities and commodities, alongside expectations of total easing, suggesting a potential recovery in the bond market [7]. - Huatai Fixed Income highlighted that while the bond market may perform steadily before the holiday, the post-holiday trend will depend on fundamental factors and policy signals [7]. - Xingzheng Fixed Income emphasized that under stable funding conditions, leveraging strategies and short-duration credit bond strategies remain effective [7].