来源：郁言债市 ►传统框架失效，"看股做债"走向极致 7月中旬以来或是相对煎熬的阶段。一方面，债市需要承受长久期收益率大幅上行带来的资本利得亏损，另一方面，投资者还面临着传统利率定价框架的 全面失效。在理论上，债市定价的三要素，资金面、基本面、政策面，均支持利率下行。 市场进入了一个由风险偏好单变量决断的定价状态，这也使得"看股做债"走向极致。这种状态形成的原因，或主要与股市非常态的风险收益率比相关，4 月以来股市的极致行情使得上证指数、万得全A的滚动3M卡玛比率自7月后长期维持在4.0以上水平，这是去年"924"行情也无法达到的状态。这种几乎只 涨不跌的风险偏好，对债市形成极大压力。 ►8月下旬，股市发展的两个逻辑 一是快涨逻辑，在"九三共识"的支撑下，各大股指，尤其是大盘型股指，或受到资金的托举，继续维持只涨不跌的趋势，同时由于本轮股票牛市不同 于"924"行情，前期散户资金进场节奏或更为温和，未来一周随着股市赚钱效应得到强化，不排除居民资金集中进场，加快股市上涨速度的可能性，债市 或仍面临压力。 二是震荡逻辑，随着9月3日阅兵时点将近，部分投资者或针对"九三共识"做逆向投资，提前止盈退场，一旦股市开始出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current financial landscape, highlighting a tight funding environment, a slight decline in long-term bond yields, and the impact of central bank actions on the stock and bond markets [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The central bank conducted a net injection of 3,457 billion yuan through reverse repos, with a total of 5,803 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos initiated [2][4]. - The funding rates showed an upward trend due to a tight funding environment, with DR001 around 1.47% and DR007 at approximately 1.55% [2][4]. - The stock market experienced slight declines amidst these monetary policy adjustments, reflecting a "stock-bond seesaw" effect [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The youth unemployment rate reached 17.8% in July, the highest in 11 months, compared to 14.5% in June, indicating growing economic challenges for younger demographics [4]. - The article notes that while housing prices are at new lows and consumer prices are low, the stock market is at new highs, suggesting a complex economic environment [4]. Group 3: Bond Market Performance - The bond market showed cautious sentiment, with the 10-year government bond yield peaking at 1.783% before retreating to around 1.766% [4]. - The article highlights a specific bond (250210) with a high borrowing concentration of 44%, making it susceptible to being "squeezed" in the market [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "10-year Treasury yield - CSI 300 dividend yield" is used as the core indicator to observe the cost - performance ratio between stocks and bonds. The current difference is near the +1 standard deviation of the one - year rolling window and at the upper limit of the past three years, indicating that the bond's allocation value is gradually increasing, but it is not yet the time for re - allocation between stocks and bonds, and the bond market still has upward pressure [3][4][5]. - The asymmetric compression of the indicator's range since 2021 is unsustainable, and the range may return to the historical normal state of [-2 standard deviations, +2 standard deviations] due to factors such as the upward revision of fundamental expectations and the increase in investors' risk appetite [4][63][64]. - In the short term, the bond market is under phased pressure due to factors such as the strengthening of M1 year - on - year data, the increase in market risk appetite, and the expectation of "anti - involution" policies. Attention should be paid to the redemption situation of bond - type funds to avoid potential negative feedback effects [7][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Review: Treasury Yields Fluctuated Upward - From August 11th to 15th, Treasury yields fluctuated upward, with the stock - bond seesaw effect dominating the bond market. The 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury yields rose by 1.59bp and 5.74bp respectively, closing at 1.3665% and 1.7465% [2][12]. - On August 11th - 12th, the bond market sentiment was under pressure due to the continuous strengthening of the equity market. On August 13th, after the release of the July financial data, the 10 - year Treasury yield slightly declined under the game of multiple and short factors. On August 14th, the bond market yield fluctuated due to the rise and fall of the equity market and the central bank's reverse - repurchase operation. On August 15th, the Treasury yield reversed and rose due to the strong rebound of the equity market [12][13]. 3.2 Bond Market Data Tracking 3.2.1 Funding Situation: Funding Rates First Declined and Then Rose - From August 11th to 15th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 4,149.00 million yuan. The R001 and DR001 rose, while the R007 and DR007 declined. The SHIBOR rate also showed an upward trend [25][26][37]. - The difference between R007 and DR007 narrowed, indicating a narrowing of the funding cost difference between non - bank institutions and banks. The term spread of FR007S5Y - FR007S1Y widened [26]. 3.2.2 Supply Side: Total Issuance and Net Financing Decreased - From August 11th to 15th, the total issuance of interest - rate bonds decreased, and the net financing amount also decreased. The issuance of government bonds decreased, and the net financing of Treasury bonds and local government bonds decreased [41][44][51]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased, and the net financing amount decreased. The issuance scale of state - owned commercial banks was the highest among different bank types, and the 1 - year term had the highest issuance scale among different term types [51]. 3.3 Next Week's Outlook and Strategy 3.3.1 Current Position of Stock - Bond Cost - Performance Ratio - The "10 - year Treasury yield - CSI 300 dividend yield" is used to measure the stock - bond cost - performance ratio. Since 2021, the fluctuation range has been asymmetrically compressed, but it is expected to return to the historical normal state [3][61][63]. - As of August 15, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yield was about 1.74%, the CSI 300 dividend yield was 2.76%, and the stock - bond yield difference was - 1.02% [4][63]. 3.3.2 Next Week's Outlook: The Central Funding Rate May Rise Due to Tax - Period Disturbance - Next week, the supply pressure of Treasury bonds will increase. The planned issuance of Treasury bonds is 36.2 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds is 36.915 billion yuan [67]. - Due to the tax - period disturbance and the expiration of reverse - repurchases, the central funding rate may rise [68]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Strategy: The Bond Market is Under Phased Pressure, and Potential Negative Feedback Effects Should be Watched Out - The bond market is under phased pressure due to factors such as the strengthening of M1 year - on - year data, the increase in market risk appetite, and the expectation of "anti - involution" policies [7][69]. - The strengthening of the equity market is the biggest risk for the bond market. Attention should be paid to the redemption situation of bond - type funds to avoid potential bond - market stampede risks [7][69]. 3.4 Global Major Assets - US Treasury yields generally rose, and the curve steepened. The 10Y - 2Y term spread widened by 7bp to 58bp [72]. - The US dollar index declined, and the US dollar against the RMB central parity rate slightly decreased. The prices of gold, silver, and crude oil all fell [72][73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market [2][4][12][83][85] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic downward pressure may increase in the second half of the year. Price is the key variable for economic recovery. The price recovery at the supply level is starting to show at the meso - level, but the economic fundamentals in July were poor, and the improvement of CPI and PPI was less than expected. Consumption and exports may face pressure in the second half of the year [2][10][11][83] - The recent correction in the bond market is due to the systematic and active reduction of duration by bond funds and securities firms' proprietary trading, which has nothing to do with redemptions and economic fundamentals. When many institutions reduce their bond investment duration, a new market may start [2][11][83] - In 2025, the bond market lacks a trending market and requires correct band - trading. It is predicted that the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond will fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year. After the recent correction, the 10Y Treasury bond is close to 1.75%, with high cost - effectiveness [4][12][85] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than from January to June. From January to July, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, 1.2 percentage points lower than in the first half of the year. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, 1.1 percentage points lower than in June [13] - Three departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", with a subsidy ratio of 1 percentage point, starting from September 1, 2025, for a period of 1 year [4][16] - On August 15, the central bank released the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Second Quarter of 2025", continuing the moderately loose tone, and the probability of recent reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is low. The monetary policy focuses on implementation, emphasizing "interest rate guidance", "preventing idle funds", "improving the efficiency of fund use", and "making good use of various structural monetary policy tools" [4][16] - The US CPI in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.8%, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3% [18] 2. Meso - level High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of August 10, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 45,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, and the average daily wholesale volume was 40,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. As of August 15, the total box office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days was 144,668,300 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 46.1% [22] - As of August 1, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 1.739 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%, and the total retail sales were 4.05 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [27] 2.2 Transportation - As of August 10, the container throughput of ports was 6.792 million twenty - foot equivalent units, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. As of August 15, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 4.0767 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [28] - As of August 10, the postal express pick - up volume was 3.53 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 13.4%. The railway freight volume was 78.697 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 5.33 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% [35][37] 2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of August 13, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises in the country was 77.5%, a year - on - year increase of 3.6 percentage points. As of August 14, the average asphalt operating rate was 27.0%, a year - on - year increase of 5.0 percentage points [43] - As of August 14, the soda ash operating rate was 87.1%, a year - on - year increase of 5.3 percentage points, and the PVC operating rate was 76.7%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9 percentage points. As of August 15, the average PX operating rate was 85.0%, and the average PTA operating rate was 78.9% [46] 2.4 Real Estate - As of August 15, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.209 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%. The total number of commercial housing transactions was 12,667 units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.6% [48][50] 2.5 Prices - As of August 15, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.2 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 25.7%, and a 2.2% decrease compared to four weeks ago. The average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.7 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 20.9%, and a 7.4% increase compared to four weeks ago. The average wholesale price of six key fruits was 7.0 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 6.3%, and a 4.5% decrease compared to four weeks ago [51] - As of August 15, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 689.0 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%, and a 9.9% increase compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of WTI crude oil was 63.5 US dollars per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 18.6%, and a 5.4% decrease compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar was 3321.2 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, and a 4.5% increase compared to four weeks ago [52] - As of August 15, the average spot price of iron ore was 792.9 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, and a 2.7% increase compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of glass was 14.6 yuan per square meter, a year - on - year decrease of 15.5%, and a 2.2% increase compared to four weeks ago [58] 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On August 15, overnight Shibor was 1.40%, up 8.30 BP from August 11. R001 was 1.44%, up 9.33 BP; R007 was 1.49%, up 3.21 BP. DR001 was 1.40%, up 8.75 BP; DR007 was 1.48%, up 3.94 BP. IBO001 was 1.44%, up 9.11 BP; IBO007 was 1.52%, up 5.32 BP [60] - Most Treasury bond yields rose. On August 15, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.37%, 1.59%, 1.75%, and 2.05% respectively, up 1.3 BP, 4.9 BP, 5.8 BP, and 9.0 BP respectively from August 8 [66] - On August 15, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.53%, 1.74%, 1.86%, and 2.15% respectively, up 3.2 BP, 7.5 BP, 7.9 BP, and 9.8 BP respectively from August 8 [66] - On August 15, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.38%, 1.69%, and 1.84% respectively, down 0.7 BP, up 3.4 BP, and up 2.0 BP respectively from August 8 [71] - On August 15, the yields of AAA - rated 1 - month and 1 - year and AA + - rated 1 - month and 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.47%, 1.64%, 1.49%, and 1.67% respectively, up 1.1 BP, 2.0 BP, 1.1 BP, and 1.0 BP respectively from August 8 [71] - As of August 15, 2025, the yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds in the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.3%, 1.6%, 4.7%, and 2.8% respectively, up 6 BP, 7 BP, 11 BP, and 9 BP respectively from August 8 [75] - On August 15, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.14 and 7.18 respectively, down 11 and 3 pips respectively from August 8 [76] 4. Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, and has been continuously decreasing in the past three weeks. As of August 15, 2025, the estimated average duration was about 5.2 years, a decrease of about 0.04 years compared to last week (August 8) [79] - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a volatile trend. In the past three weeks, the duration has risen rapidly and then fluctuated. As of August 15, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 2.8 years, and the estimated average duration was about 2.7 years, an increase of about 0.14 years compared to last week (August 8) [81] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report is firmly bullish on the bond market. It is predicted that the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond will fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year. After the recent correction, the 10Y Treasury bond is close to 1.75%, with high cost - effectiveness. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond may gradually return to around 1.65%, and the yield of 5Y national - share second - tier bonds may fall below 1.9% [4][12][85] - Be bullish on long - duration sinking urban investment and capital bonds, urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. Strongly recommend perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks. Pay attention to capital bond opportunities of Tianjin Bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, and China Property Insurance [4][12][85]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - No clear core views are presented in the provided content. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T2509.CFE) had a Friday settlement price of 108.325 with a -0.26% weekly decline; T2512.CFE settled at 108.225 with a -0.26% weekly decline [7]. - 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF2509.CFE) settled at 105.675 with a -0.14% weekly decline; TF2512.CFE settled at 105.670 with a -0.19% weekly decline [7]. - 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS2509.CFE) settled at 102.346 with a -0.02% weekly decline; TS2512.CFE settled at 102.384 with a -0.05% weekly decline [7]. - 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL2509.CFE) settled at 117.660 with a -1.33% weekly decline; TL2512.CFE settled at 117.210 with a -1.40% weekly decline [7]. Spread Data - The T2509 - T2512 inter - delivery spread was 0.100 with no weekly change; TF2509 - TF2512 was 0.005 with a -1.143 weekly change; TS2509 - TS2512 was -0.038 with a -0.095 weekly change [7]. - The 2TS - T cross - variety spread was 301.059 with a 0.189 weekly increase; 2TF - T was 103.025 with a -0.005 weekly change; TS - TF was 99.017 with a 0.097 weekly increase [7]. Spot Bond Yields - 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.37% with a 1.32 BP weekly increase; 2Y was 1.40% with a 0.72 BP increase; 3Y was 1.41% with a -0.65 BP decrease [7]. - 5Y Treasury bond yield was 1.59% with a 4.92 BP increase; 7Y was 1.69% with a 3.70 BP increase; 10Y was 1.75% with a 5.80 BP increase; 30Y was 2.05% with a 9.05 BP increase [7]. - 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.53% with a 3.18 BP increase; 3Y was 1.66% with a 2.93 BP increase; 5Y was 1.74% with a 7.47 BP increase [7]. - 7Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.86% with a 6.83 BP increase; 10Y was 1.86% with a 7.87 BP increase; 30Y was 2.15% with a 9.80 BP increase [7]. Funding Rates - The inter - bank pledged repo rate DROO1 was 1.40% with a 9.03 BP weekly increase; DR007 was 1.48% with a 5.47 BP increase; DR014 was 1.51% with a 3.28 BP increase [7]. - SHIBOR1M was 1.53% with a 0.04 BP increase; SHIBOR3N was 1.55% with a -0.74 BP decrease [7].

Economic Overview - External conditions have improved while internal data has weakened, with inflation (PPI) down 3.6% year-on-year, below market expectations[22] - New loans in July turned negative at -426.3 billion CNY, indicating weakened credit demand from both households and enterprises[22] - Retail sales growth fell from 4.8% in June to 3.7% in July, and fixed asset investment growth dropped to 1.6% year-on-year for January to July[22] Real Estate Market - Second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline deepening from 0.7% to 1.0%, while second and third-tier cities maintained a decline of 0.5%[23] Bond Market Dynamics - Long-term bond yields have risen sharply, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.75% (+5.4bp) and the 30-year yield at 2.00% (+7.3bp)[12] - The market is experiencing a bearish sentiment, with institutions increasingly shorting bonds amid high risk aversion[30] Investment Strategies - The bond market may face three scenarios: potential monetary easing by the central bank, a stock market correction undermining risk appetite, or continued high risk preference leading to a revaluation of bonds[35] - The 10-year government bond yield is seen as a psychological threshold at 1.75%, with a potential for a sharp rise if breached[36] Financial Products and Performance - The scale of wealth management products decreased by 120.6 billion CNY to 31.20 trillion CNY, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards equities[39] - The proportion of wealth management products with negative returns increased to 6.73%, indicating rising risk in the sector[45]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income weekly report titled "Institutional Behavior of Joint - stock Banks Triggers Bullish Signals - Weekly Report on Bond Market Institutional Behavior (Week 2 of August)" dated August 17, 2025 [1][2] - The chief analyst is Yan Ziqi, and the analyst is Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The bond market's bullish space has opened, and institutional behavior indicators have triggered bullish signals. A trading - following strategy based on joint - stock banks' transactions may have a high win - rate [2][3][12] - Although there are short - term bearish factors in the bond market, the medium - and long - term trend remains unchanged, and the bullish space has opened [4][13] Group 3: Weekly Institutional Behavior Review 3.1 General Comment - A rate - timing signal was developed based on joint - stock banks' trading behavior. In the past year, it gave 5 long - lasting large - wave signals with a 100% win - rate on large waves. On August 13, it triggered a bullish signal that lasted for 3 days [3][12] - Big banks were the main buyers of short - and medium - term bonds, while funds and securities firms sold long - term interest - rate bonds, and rural commercial banks, insurance companies, and city commercial banks were the main buyers. The bond market's capital supply remained loose, and the overall spread of the curve widened [4][13] 3.2 Yield Curve - The yields of treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds generally increased. For treasury bonds, the 1Y yield rose 2bp, 3Y fell 1bp, 5Y rose about 4bp, 7Y rose 5bp, 10Y rose 6bp, 15Y rose about 7bp, and 30Y rose 9bp. For China Development Bank bonds, the 1Y yield rose 3bp, 3Y rose 4bp, 5Y rose 8bp, 7Y rose 7bp, 10Y rose 8bp, 15Y rose 7bp, and 30Y rose 9bp [15] 3.3 Term Spread - For treasury bonds, the interest spread increased, and the term spread generally widened. For China Development Bank bonds, the interest - spread inversion deepened, and the short - end spread widened [16][19] Group 4: Bond Market Leverage and Funding 4.1 Leverage Ratio - The leverage ratio dropped to 107.22%. From August 11 to 15, it first increased and then decreased [20] 4.2 Repurchase Transactions - The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase this week was 8.2 trillion yuan, with an average overnight proportion of 89.82%. The overnight trading volume increased by 0.03 trillion yuan month - on - month, and the overnight proportion decreased by 0.05pct [26][30] 4.3 Funding - Banks' fund lending first increased and then decreased. Big banks and policy banks' net lending on August 15 was 4.83 trillion yuan. The main fund borrowers were funds. DR007 fluctuated upward, and R007 continued to rise [32] Group 5: Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds 5.1 Median Duration - The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds remained at 2.81 years (de - leveraged) and 3.11 years (leveraged). On August 15, the de - leveraged median duration changed less than 0.01 year, and the leveraged median duration decreased by 0.02 years [44] 5.2 Duration by Bond - Fund Type - The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (leveraged) rose to 3.94 years, an increase of 0.02 years from last Friday. The median duration of credit - bond funds (leveraged) dropped to 2.86 years, a decrease of 0.03 years from last Friday [47] Group 6: Category Strategy Comparison 6.1 Sino - US Spread - The Sino - US treasury bond spreads generally widened. The 1Y spread widened by 2bp, 2Y by about 1bp, 3Y narrowed by 4bp, 5Y widened by about 3bp, 7Y widened by 1bp, 10Y changed less than 1bp, and 30Y widened by 2bp [52] 6.2 Implied Tax Rate - The implied tax rate generally widened. As of August 15, the 1Y spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds widened by about 2bp, 3Y by 5bp, 5Y by 3bp, 7Y by about 3bp, 10Y by 2bp, 15Y narrowed by 1bp, and 30Y changed less than 1bp [53] Group 7: Bond Lending Balance Changes - On August 15, the lending concentration of active 10Y treasury bonds and active 10Y China Development Bank bonds increased, while that of less - active 10Y treasury bonds, less - active 10Y China Development Bank bonds, and active 30Y treasury bonds decreased. By institution, the lending concentration of securities firms and other institutions increased, while that of big banks and small - and medium - sized banks decreased [54]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the monetary policy report emphasizes "broad monetary policy, stable credit, structural adjustment, and supply enhancement," indicating a clear intention to regulate bank credit issuance and support economic transformation [1] - The monetary policy maintains a general tone of "moderate easing" while allowing for "dynamic adjustments based on the situation," suggesting that total monetary policy tools may still be applicable if the economy further slows down [1][9] - The report reiterates that "preventing empty circulation" does not imply a tightening of funds, as the central bank aims to create a suitable financial environment and strengthen coordination with fiscal policy [1][10] Group 2 - Liquidity is likely to remain loose, as indicated by the central bank's actions, including early net injections and support for government bond issuance [2][14] - The focus has shifted from the total volume of credit to optimizing the credit structure, with expectations of weak credit growth in the second half of the year [2][16] - The central bank is promoting service consumption while emphasizing supply-side measures, indicating a shift in consumer behavior from goods to services [2][21] Group 3 - The report highlights concerns about the global economic environment, noting that the recovery process remains uncertain and that domestic effective demand is insufficient [1][9] - The bond market is experiencing upward pressure on interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to approximately 1.75% [22] - The report indicates a rebound in the scale of wealth management products, with a total of 31.32 trillion yuan in outstanding wealth management products as of August 10 [28]

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 债市是利空出尽，还是利好出尽？ ——利率周记（8 月第 2 周） 报告日期： 2025-08-14 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 债市当前是利多出尽还是利空出尽？ 8 月以来债市延续震荡走势，随着权益、商品市场的"隔山打牛式"冲击，上 周卖方看多观点锐减近三成——做多情绪的"瓦解"比几个 BP 的调整更加令 人担忧，债市正是从 2024 年的对利空免疫，转向对利多免疫。当前时点，如 果继续抱持多头思维，关键之问在于"利空出尽了吗"？而在声势见涨的空头 思维下，"利好是否出尽"不乏讨论。 各花入各眼，多头面临的利空挑战明显更偏定性，并且更像市场情绪的因变 量，例如权益市场的上涨与主流叙事的转变是互相增益的关系，这一 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The bond market pricing logic has shifted from "asset - end" to "liability - end". A new framework based on "liquidity", "institutional behavior", and "relative value" is proposed to help institutions trade flexibly. The concept of fixed - income sell - side research also needs to change [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Current Bond Market's "Liability - End" Pricing Logic - **Key Variable for Interest Rate Fluctuation and Macroeconomic "Desensitization" - Money Velocity**: Interest rate and macro - economy relationship has become "desensitized". The link between interest rate changes and macro - economic trends assumes stable money velocity. Economic structural adjustment may have reduced money velocity, leading to a decline in nominal growth and a decrease in real - sector funding demand [9][10] - **Macro Observation of "Liability - End" Pricing of Interest Rate Trends - Relative Liquidity**: Interest rate pricing now depends more on the "liability - end" or the supply side of funds. With the weakening of real - sector financing demand, bond yields are more determined by the relative scale of funds chasing bonds, i.e., "relative liquidity" [15][16] - **Micro Observation of "Liability - End" Pricing of Interest Rate Trends - Institutional Allocation and Trading Power**: Institutional behavior is an intermediary variable affecting bond pricing. Institutions should be classified by "allocation behavior" and "trading behavior". Allocation behavior has seasonal characteristics, while trading behavior occurs in a short time and requires micro - confirmation [21][22] 2. Bond Investment Solutions in a Low - Interest - Rate Environment - Active Trading to Increase Returns - **Trading is a Process of Exchanging Liquidity for Returns**: Trading is not a zero - sum game but a process of exchanging liquidity for returns. Higher trading activity can bring liquidity premiums. Institutions can exchange liquidity for returns, and the central bank's policies aim to enhance market liquidity [29][30] - **Two Trading Strategies: Trend Strategy and Relative Value Strategy**: Trend strategy focuses on accurately judging the pricing factors of a target to follow the trend and gain returns, relying on grasping "common points". Relative value strategy focuses on finding the different pricing factors between related targets, reducing model complexity and analysis difficulty, and is a grasp of "differences" [32] - **Role of Two Trading Strategies' Logic in Allocation - Type Institutions**: For allocation - type institutions, timing corresponds to the logic of the trend strategy, and bond selection corresponds to the logic of the relative value strategy. When timing, they need to consider long - term and short - term factors; when selecting bonds, they need to judge the dynamic relative value [34] 3. New Framework for Bond Investment Research - Pyramid Pricing System Based on a Low - Interest - Rate Environment - **Triple Structure of the Pyramid Pricing System: Liquidity, Institutional Behavior, and Relative Value**: The bottom layer is the "liquidity" system, which includes macro, meso, and micro variables related to funds and bond liquidity. The middle layer is the "institutional behavior" system, which requires a complete and forward - looking research system. The upper layer is the "relative value" system, which shows the relative position of spreads but is not a decisive factor for relative value strategies [40][44][47] - **Building a Decision - Factor Tree for Relative Value Trading Strategies**: Select appropriate liquidity, institutional behavior, and relative value factors according to the target of a relative value trading strategy to build a decision - factor tree. Analyze each factor and assign weights to judge the strategy's win - rate and odds. Allocation - type institutions can transform their position adjustment problems into relative value trading strategies for analysis [51] 4. Understanding of the New - Era Fixed - Income Sell - Side Research Concept - In the high - interest - rate stage, fixed - income sell - side research provided macro - level information to support investment decisions. In the low - interest - rate stage, it should provide bottom - up market characteristics to support investment trading and position management, and its positioning should shift from "guiding direction" to "assisting execution" [54]