1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market in September may break the seasonal pattern and still present long - trading opportunities. The latest PMI data shows a marginal improvement in the fundamentals, but the effective demand remains weak. Mid - to long - term interest rates are expected to decline. The seasonal weakness in September may have been adjusted in August. The central bank is supportive of bond market liquidity, and institutional behavior signals still suggest long - trading. Currently, one can focus on the spread compression opportunity between the new 30 - year bond 25 Special 06 and 25 Special 02 [2]. - From a seasonal perspective, the bond market usually corrects in September, but the current market sentiment has improved significantly, and the number of institutions bearish on the bond market has decreased notably [3]. - Most fixed - income buyers hold a neutral view, with over 80% of them remaining neutral [3]. - The basis of the T - contract is at a historical high, and the curve can still be steepened [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Seller and Buyer Markets 3.1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.1, and the unweighted index is 0.14, up 0.11 from last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 7 bullish, 19 neutral, and 3 bearish. 24% of institutions are bullish, citing the attractiveness of the 10 - year Treasury yield around 1.8%, weak fundamentals, and expected central bank easing. 66% are neutral, concerned about the "stock - bond seesaw" effect and incomplete institutional duration adjustment. 10% are bearish, worried about stock market rallies, inflation expectations, and subsequent pro - growth policies [12]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index is 0.02, and the unweighted index is 0.03, down 0.03 from last week. Institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 3 bullish, 24 neutral, and 2 bearish. 10% of institutions are bullish, citing credit contraction, the improved cost - effectiveness of the bond market, and central bank support. 83% are neutral, believing that the bond market is gradually desensitized to equities. 7% are bearish, concerned that a stronger stock market may raise the interest - rate center [13]. 3.1.3 Credit Bonds - The scale of "fixed - income +" funds is expanding, which may support the demand for medium - to high - grade, medium - to short - duration non - financial credit bonds, but the current increase is limited. The stock - bond seesaw effect still exists, and a rising stock market may continue to pressure long - term bonds [18]. 3.1.4 Convertible Bonds - Institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view this week, with 11 bullish and 4 neutral. 73% are bullish, believing that the logic of incremental funds driving the equity market remains valid. 27% are neutral, concerned about high valuations and increased market divergence [20]. 3.2 Treasury Futures Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices have risen across the board. As of August 29, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 102.42 yuan, 105.52 yuan, 107.81 yuan, and 116.55 yuan respectively, up 0.10 yuan, 0.14 yuan, 0.15 yuan, and 0.57 yuan from last Friday. - Open interest has increased across the board. As of August 29, the open interest of TS/TF/T/TL contracts is 67,000 lots, 113,000 lots, 178,000 lots, and 121,000 lots respectively, up 38,948 lots, 5,654 lots, 16,595 lots, and 10,567 lots from last Friday. - Trading volume has decreased across the board. As of August 29, the 5 - day moving average trading volume of TS/TF/T/TL contracts is 84.7 billion yuan, 84.1 billion yuan, 120.6 billion yuan, and 212.2 billion yuan respectively, down 43.223 billion yuan, 29.834 billion yuan, 37.99 billion yuan, and 54.024 billion yuan from last Friday. - The trading volume - to - open - interest ratio has decreased across the board. As of August 29, the 5 - day moving average trading volume - to - open - interest ratio of TS/TF/T/TL contracts is 0.65, 0.77, 0.70, and 1.74 respectively, down 0.92, 0.62, 1.16, and 2.20 from last Friday [24][25]. 3.2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30 - year Treasury bonds has decreased. On August 29, it was 4.48%, down 0.94 percentage points from last week and 0.79 percentage points from Monday, with a weekly average of 3.99%. The weekly average turnover rate of interest - rate bonds has decreased. On August 29, it was 0.78%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 0.19 percentage points from Monday. The turnover rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds has increased. On August 29, it was 4.71%, up 0.62 percentage points from last week and down 1.03 percentage points from Monday [32][35]. 3.2.3 Basis Trading - Except for the basis of the TS main contract, which has widened, the basis of other main contracts has narrowed. As of August 29, the basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is - 0.04 yuan, 0.05 yuan, 0.44 yuan, and 0.71 yuan respectively, down 0.07 yuan, 0.02 yuan, 0.13 yuan, and 0.23 yuan from last Friday. - The net basis of all main contracts has narrowed. As of August 29, the net basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is 0.001 yuan, 0.08 yuan, 0.12 yuan, and 0.21 yuan respectively, down 0.02 yuan, 0.003 yuan, 0.09 yuan, and 0.18 yuan from last Friday. - The IRR of all main contracts has increased. As of August 29, the IRR (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is 1.51%, 1.25%, 1.13%, and 1.01% respectively, up 0.33%, 0.04%, 0.29%, and 0.44% from last Friday [39][42]. 3.2.4 Inter - delivery Spread and Inter - variety Spread - In terms of inter - delivery spreads, the spreads of TS and TF main futures contracts have widened, while those of T and TL main futures contracts have narrowed. As of August 29, the near - to - far spreads of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are - 0.07 yuan, 0.14 yuan, 0.24 yuan, and 0.46 yuan respectively, down 0.07 yuan, up 0.04 yuan, down 0.01 yuan, and down 0.08 yuan from last Friday. - In terms of inter - variety spreads, except for the 3*T - TL futures contract, whose spread has narrowed, the spreads of other main futures contracts have widened. As of August 29, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL are 99.33 yuan, 103.21 yuan, 301.86 yuan, and 206.90 yuan respectively, up 0.06 yuan, 0.13 yuan, 0.24 yuan, and down 0.17 yuan from last Friday [49][50].