投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 3 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2606 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 短期内全面降息的可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡收涨。消息面，关于美伊谈判方面，近期伊朗方面传出与美国方面不 一致的消息，这意味着双方分歧很大，未来局势发展面临较大的不确定性。高不确定性背景下市场情 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 3 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2606 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 短期内全面降息的可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知 行 合 一 专 业 敬 业 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。消息面，地时间 3 月 24 日，美国政府通过巴基斯坦向伊 朗提出一份包含 1 ...

期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 3 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2606 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 短期内全面降息的可能性较低 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货延续震荡整理。中东地缘危机反复，持续扰动市场情绪。由于我国通胀数据 偏弱，内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，为了稳定经济增长以及促进物价合理回升，未来 ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2606 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 短期内全面降息的可能性较低 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 3 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均延续震荡整理。消息面，央行公布 3 月 LPR 报价维持不变，这是自去 年 5 月降息以来连续第 10 个月维持不变。这说明目前货币政策短期 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and in the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly undergo range - bound consolidation [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2606 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures rebounded slightly in an oscillatory manner yesterday. Domestically, there is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, and the inflation level is still low. To stabilize economic growth and promote a reasonable recovery of prices, the future monetary and credit environment will be relatively loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. From the perspective of the recent Middle East geopolitical crisis, the risk of its long - term development has increased, and the risk of global economic stagflation has risen, which restricts the monetary easing policies of global central banks, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For financial futures in the stock index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the domestic demand problem persists and the price level is low, so the future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited due to the increasing risk of long - term geopolitical crisis in the Middle East and the rising risk of global economic stagflation, which restrains the global central banks' monetary easing policies. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate within a range in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2606, the short - term view is "oscillate", the medium - term view is "oscillate", the intraday view is "bullish", and the view reference is "oscillatory consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillate", and the reference view is "oscillatory consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures rebounded slightly yesterday. Due to the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand and the low price level, the future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. As Treasury bond futures have adjusted to near the previous low, the upward momentum of the Treasury bond maturity yield is insufficient due to the anchoring effect of the policy interest rate, and Treasury bond futures rebounded from the bottom. However, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is also relatively limited recently because the increasing risk of long - term geopolitical crisis in the Middle East and the rising risk of global economic stagflation restrain the global central banks' monetary easing policies. Overall, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate within a range in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report presents a weekly overview of futures price and volume, including the closing prices, weekly price changes, 20 - day annualized volatility, volatility changes, speculation degree, trend degree, and capital changes of various futures varieties across different categories such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black commodities, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, livestock products, and financial futures. It also shows the year - to - date price changes and the weekly average position and capital changes of some varieties. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Gold closed at 1,133.00 with a weekly decline of 0.68%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 27.75% (down 60.58%), speculation degree of 1.92, trend degree of - 0.03, and capital inflow of 114.11 [2]. - Silver closed at 20,923.00, down 2.83% weekly, with 90.70% volatility (down 28.07%), speculation degree of 2.41, trend degree of 0.03, and capital outflow of 41.21 [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper closed at 101,010.00, down 0.04% weekly, with 15.19% volatility (down 60.65%), speculation degree of 0.57, trend degree of 0.17, and capital outflow of 5.65 [2]. - Nickel closed at 136,930.00, down 0.15% weekly, with 30.22% volatility (down 36.45%), speculation degree of 2.22, trend degree of - 0.15, and capital inflow of 1.87 [2]. - Aluminum closed at 24,960.00, up 0.99% weekly, with 21.73% volatility (down 41.66%), speculation degree of 2.01, trend degree of 0.05, and capital inflow of 8.07 [2]. - Tin closed at 374,110.00, down 4.97% weekly, with 78.61% volatility (down 9.46%), speculation degree of 7.33, trend degree of - 0.13, and capital outflow of 6.85 [2]. - Zinc closed at 24,140.00, down 0.49% weekly, with 13.67% volatility (down 43.53%), speculation degree of 1.41, trend degree of - 0.27, and capital outflow of 1.45 [2]. - Lead closed at 16,555.00, down 1.31% weekly, with 5.36% volatility (down 40.23%), speculation degree of 0.73, trend degree of - 0.29, and capital inflow of 5.82 [2]. Black Commodities - Iron ore closed at 811.50, up 5.12% weekly, with 16.04% volatility (up 3.94%), speculation degree of 0.67, trend degree of 0.20, and capital inflow of 6.64 [2]. - Coke closed at 1,737.50, up 2.48% weekly, with 28.93% volatility (up 0.66%), speculation degree of 0.69, trend degree of 0.13, and capital inflow of 0.67 [2]. - Coking coal closed at 1,178.00, up 4.90% weekly, with 35.14% volatility (up 7.43%), speculation degree of 2.48, trend degree of 0.20, and capital outflow of 2.23 [2]. - Rebar closed at 3,142.00, up 1.75% weekly, with 9.38% volatility (up 0.44%), speculation degree of 0.54, trend degree of 0.13, and capital inflow of 0.16 [2]. - Hot - rolled coil closed at 3,295.00, up 2.01% weekly, with 9.02% volatility (up 12.14%), speculation degree of 0.36, trend degree of 0.05, and capital outflow of 0.44 [2]. - Ferrosilicon closed at 5,888.00, up 0.34% weekly, with 14.69% volatility (down 6.44%), speculation degree of 0.98, trend degree of - 0.12, and capital outflow of 1.54 [2]. - Silicomanganese closed at 6,176.00, up 0.75% weekly, with 14.15% volatility (down 2.81%), speculation degree of 0.77, trend degree of 0.05, and capital outflow of 3.74 [2]. - Stainless steel closed at 14,190.00, down 0.14% weekly, with 15.44% volatility (down 43.06%), speculation degree of 1.60, trend degree of - 0.15, and capital outflow of 1.58 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil closed at 750.80, up 12.94% weekly, with 101.14% volatility (up 52.43%), speculation degree of 6.33, trend degree of 0.12, and capital inflow of 144.51 [2]. - Fuel oil closed at 4,730.00, up 19.08% weekly, with 77.51% volatility (up 24.66%), speculation degree of 6.75, trend degree of 0.06, and capital inflow of 25.08 [2]. - LU closed at 5,582.00, up 24.38% weekly, with 74.10% volatility (up 30.06%), speculation degree of 2.80, trend degree of - 0.02, and capital inflow of 9.40 [2]. - LPG closed at 5,734.00, up 8.17% weekly, with 51.82% volatility (up 16.23%), speculation degree of 3.33, trend degree of - 0.05, and capital inflow of 8.43 [2]. - Asphalt closed at 4,089.00, up 8.78% weekly, with 51.47% volatility (up 60.36%), speculation degree of 3.52, trend degree of 0.35, and capital inflow of 8.04 [2]. - PVC closed at 5,724.00, up 8.49% weekly, with 38.78% volatility (up 35.98%), speculation degree of 2.91, trend degree of 0.13, and capital inflow of 24.65 [2]. - Polyethylene closed at 8,416.00, up 9.43% weekly, with 36.92% volatility (up 9.36%), speculation degree of 3.15, trend degree of - 0.01, and capital inflow of 21.91 [2]. - Polypropylene closed at 8,603.00, up 10.34% weekly, with 38.69% volatility (up 10.95%), speculation degree of 2.87, trend degree of - 0.02, and capital inflow of 26.69 [2]. - Styrene closed at 10,000.00, up 12.25% weekly, with 42.87% volatility (up 4.29%), speculation degree of 6.69, trend degree of - 0.20, and capital inflow of 20.40 [2]. - PTA closed at 6,934.00, up 14.23% weekly, with 40.68% volatility (up 25.17%), speculation degree of 2.23, trend degree of 0.10, and capital inflow of 75.42 [2]. - Ethylene glycol closed at 4,729.00, up 8.04% weekly, with 46.07% volatility (up 33.15%), speculation degree of 2.83, trend degree of 0.02, and capital inflow of 23.30 [2]. - Short - fiber closed at 8,382.00, up 11.64% weekly, with 32.94% volatility (up 21.73%), speculation degree of 3.83, trend degree of 0.17, and capital inflow of 9.71 [2]. - Methanol closed at 2,805.00, up 8.47% weekly, with 71.00% volatility (up 36.15%), speculation degree of 4.23, trend degree of 0.12, and capital inflow of 2.73 [2]. - Urea closed at 1,889.00, up 3.22% weekly, with 22.03% volatility (up 41.66%), speculation degree of 1.72, trend degree of 0.00, and capital inflow of 3.70 [2]. - Glass closed at 1,135.00, up 4.42% weekly, with 26.38% volatility (down 2.68%), speculation degree of 1.69, trend degree of 0.15, and capital inflow of 3.52 [2]. - Soda ash closed at 1,277.00, up 2.82% weekly, with 25.23% volatility (up 13.69%), speculation degree of 1.69, trend degree of 0.08, and capital inflow of 12.35 [2]. - Natural rubber closed at 16,765.00, down 0.42% weekly, with 23.38% volatility (down 9.46%), speculation degree of 2.92, trend degree of - 0.07, and capital outflow of 1.60 [2]. Agricultural Products - Cotton closed at 15,415.00, up 0.78% weekly, with 15.19% volatility (down 5.90%), speculation degree of 0.90, trend degree of 0.00, and capital outflow of 5.83 [2]. - Sugar closed at 5,447.00, up 1.42% weekly, with 8.10% volatility (down 4.85%), speculation degree of 1.04, trend degree of - 0.03, and capital inflow of 0.91 [2]. - Corn closed at 2,386.00, down 0.29% weekly, with 7.78% volatility (up 1.88%), speculation degree of 0.64, trend degree of 0.00, and capital outflow of 5.39 [2]. - Apple closed at 9,998.00, down 3.08% weekly, with 27.46% volatility (up 1.55%), speculation degree of 1.17, trend degree of - 0.08, and capital outflow of 8.13 [2]. - Starch closed at 2,729.00, up 0.66% weekly, with 7.53% volatility (down 7.38%), speculation degree of 0.54, trend degree of - 0.01, and capital outflow of 0.98 [2]. - Soybean No.1 closed at 4,973.00, up 6.69% weekly, with 21.23% volatility (up 29.99%), speculation degree of 1.10, trend degree of 0.34, and capital outflow of 0.98 [2]. - Soybean No.2 closed at 3,923.00, up 6.55% weekly, with 17.88% volatility (up 38.31%), speculation degree of 1.13, trend degree of 0.15, and capital inflow of 1.41 [2]. - Soybean meal closed at 3,128.00, up 7.31% weekly, with 19.25% volatility (up 36.16%), speculation degree of 1.24, trend degree of 0.20, and capital inflow of 4.05 [2]. - Soybean oil closed at 8,690.00, up 3.30% weekly, with 16.90% volatility (up 35.17%), speculation degree of 0.82, trend degree of 0.03, and capital inflow of 47.10 [2]. - Palm oil closed at 9,768.00, up 5.97% weekly, with 26.27% volatility (up 45.78%), speculation degree of 2.05, trend degree of 0.19, and capital inflow of 28.22 [2]. - Rapeseed meal closed at 2,591.00, up 9.14% weekly, with 22.02% volatility (up 43.89%), speculation degree of 1.60, trend degree of 0.26, and capital outflow of 9.00 [2]. - Rapeseed oil closed at 9,821.00, up 1.60% weekly, with 18.59% volatility (up 8.31%), speculation degree of 1.08, trend degree of - 0.03, and capital inflow of 3.14 [2]. - Pulp closed at 5,272.00, down 0.94% weekly, with 11.22% volatility (down 16.22%), speculation degree of 1.32, trend degree of - 0.06, and capital inflow of 1.63 [2]. Livestock Products - Eggs closed at 3,433.00, up 1.30% weekly, with 13.44% volatility (down 11.67%), speculation degree of 0.99, trend degree of 0.04, and capital outflow of 1.29 [2]. - Live hogs closed at 11,150.00, down 0.09% weekly, with 14.17% volatility (down 6.15%), speculation degree of 0.50, trend degree of - 0.04, and capital inflow of 11.21 [2]. Financial Futures - IC closed at 8,213.80, down 1.31% weekly, with 23.46% volatility (down 35.06%), speculation degree of 0.78, trend degree of - 0.13, and capital outflow of 8.42 [3]. - IF closed at 4,658.00, up 0.26% weekly, with 15.26% volatility (down 20.38%), speculation degree of 0.57, trend degree of 0.22, and capital inflow of 1.17 [3]. - IM closed at 8,187.00, down 0.30% weekly, with 22.56% volatility (down 29.42%), speculation degree of 0.83, trend degree of 0.03, and capital inflow of 20.71 [3]. - IH closed at 2,957.00, down 1.10% weekly, with 13.38% volatility (down 22.32%), speculation degree of 0.53, trend degree of 0.03, and capital outflow of 9.05 [3]. - T closed at 108.22, down 0.29% weekly, with 1.23% volatility (up 23.24%), speculation degree of 0.29, trend degree of - 0

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The main reason is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The external situation is that the Middle East geopolitical situation is unclear, the risk of the geopolitical crisis becoming long - term has increased, causing concerns about global economic stagflation. Domestically, there is still a problem of insufficient effective demand, the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts. However, the current macro - economy has strong resilience, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank in the short term is low. Overall, Treasury bond futures will mainly be in a range of oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2606, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, with a view of oscillatory consolidation, and the core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded slightly yesterday. Externally, the Middle East geopolitical situation is unclear, and the risk of the geopolitical crisis becoming long - term has increased, causing concerns about global economic stagflation. Domestically, there is still a problem of insufficient effective demand, the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts. However, the current macro - economy has strong resilience, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank in the short term is low [5].

进出口数据好于预期，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 2月CPI同比上升1.3%。 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算收 入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优"， 支出力度有望加强，节奏继续前置，对稳增长形成支撑。（4）金融：1月社融实现开门红，新增规模达7.22万亿元， 同比多增1662亿元，政府债券净融资回升，财政靠前发力特征明显。M1同比增速回升至4.9 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 3 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2606 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期内全面降息的可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅下跌。目前国内通胀指标较为温和，加上内需有效需求不足的问 题仍存，未来货币信用环境偏宽松的主基调不变，未来降息预期仍存，对国债期货构成支撑。不过短 ...