投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。由于短期内宏观数据表现较强韧性，货币政策宽松的紧迫 性下降，叠加一 ...

国债期货日报 2026/1/8 盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连续第14个月增加。 | 周四国债现券收益率集体走强，到期收益率1-7Y下行1.50-2.75bp左右，10Y、30Y到期收益 | 率分别下行1.55、2.30bp左右至1.88%、2.31%。周四国债期货集体走强，TS、TF、T、TL主 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 力合约分别上涨0.02%、0.09%、0.15%、0.37%。DR007加权利率回升至1.47%附近震荡。 | 12月央行国债买卖净投放500亿元，低于市场预期。国内基本面端，12月官方制造业、非制造 | | | 业PMI双双回暖，重返荣枯线上。11月全国规上工企业利润同比持续回落，但高技术制造业等 | 新兴行业利润保持较快增长，工业结构持续优化。消息面上，央行定调2026年货币政策，将继 | | | 续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等政策工具，保持流动性充裕，促进社会 | 综合融资成本低位运行。海外方面，美国就业市场持续降温，12月ADP就业人数温和修复至 | 观点总结 | | 4.1万人，但仍低于市场预期，11月职位空缺降至14个月新低。美国12月 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。央行表示 2026 年要继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，具 体方面的表述是"灵活高效运 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。从宏观基本面与政策面的角度来看，内需有效需求不足的 问题仍存，货币政策中长期仍偏向宽松，政策利率的锚定效应仍存，202 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that currently, the upward and downward driving forces of bond futures are both limited. The long - term monetary policy is inclined to be loose with the expectation of policy rate cuts, providing strong support. However, the central bank's interest rate cut rhythm will likely be steady, limiting the short - term rebound momentum, and the supply pressure of dense bond issuance in the first quarter of next year restricts the upward space. So, bond futures are expected to be mainly in a volatile consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Catalog: Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is the low short - term probability of interest rate cuts and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. Catalog: Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures were in a narrow - range volatile consolidation yesterday. They are in a stage where both upward and downward driving forces are limited. Long - term monetary policy is loose with rate cut expectations for support, but the central bank's cautious rate - cut rhythm and the supply pressure of bond issuance in the first quarter of next year restrict the upward space, so they are expected to be volatile in the short term [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 12 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡下跌，其中 30 年期国债期货的跌幅较大。随着上周国债期货的震荡 反弹，国债到期收益率走低，体现出一定的央行降息预期，但是央 ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 12 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均震荡小幅上涨。由于货币政策坚持适度宽松的基调，明年货币政策环境 偏宽松，叠加市场对一季度货币政策配合财政政策协同发力的预期逐渐升温，国债期货具备较强支 撑，国债到期收益率有所走低。不过央行的降息节奏大概率保 ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。中长期来看，货币政策坚持适度宽松的基调，明年货币政 策环境偏宽松，目前国债到期收益率所隐含的降息预期较弱，因此国债 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 期货研究报告 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 服 务 国 家 走向世界 知行合一 专业敬业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管理 开拓进取 扫码关注宝城期货官方 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the overall view is "oscillating consolidation" because the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, but there are still long - term easing expectations [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillating consolidation". The current Treasury bond futures are under pressure and have support, with weak driving forces, so they will maintain an oscillating consolidation. In the short term, the futures will mainly be in an oscillating consolidation state [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Weakening | Oscillating consolidation | Low probability of short - term interest rate cut; long - term easing expectations [1] | Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS [5] - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is "weakening", medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillating consolidation" [5] - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday. There is pressure above and support below, and the driving force is weak. On the one hand, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, the monetary policy environment is expected to be loose next year, and interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts are still expected. Also, the market's implied expectation of an interest rate cut is weak, so there is strong support for Treasury bond futures. On the other hand, short - term macroeconomic data is resilient, the urgency of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is not strong, and there are few uncertainties in the internal and external environment recently, so there is a lack of upward driving force for Treasury bond futures [5]