Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term bottom of the bond market has initially emerged. The bond market has shown an independent trend, becoming desensitized to the stock market, indicating that the short - term adjustment may be over. The Shanghai property market new policy is expected to have limited impact on the overall real estate market and will not be a negative factor for the bond market. Currently, the bond market has the conditions to build a bottom. It is not advisable to chase high prices. Low - position holders can continue to hold, and those with empty positions can buy on dips [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1盘面点评 - On Monday, bond futures opened lower and closed higher, with all lines closing up. The yields of spot bonds declined across the board, with a larger decline in the long - end. The net investment of 7 - day reverse repurchase and MLF in the open market was 621.9 billion yuan. The money market became looser, and DR001 fell to around 1.35% [1]. 3.2日内消息 - At the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, Powell was dovish, emphasizing employment risks and opening the door for interest rate cuts. He announced an adjustment to the Fed's monetary policy framework, eliminating the policy of tolerating high inflation and promising to anchor long - term inflation expectations. - Shanghai issued a notice on optimizing and adjusting real estate policies, including no limit on the number of properties outside the outer ring for eligible buyers, single buyers being treated the same as families, increasing the personal housing provident fund loan limit, allowing the use of housing provident funds for down payments, no longer distinguishing between first - and second - home commercial loan interest rates, and exempting non - Shanghai residents from property tax for their first homes and providing a tax - free area of 60 square meters per person for their second homes [2]. 3.3行情研判 - Affected by Powell's dovish remarks at the global central bank annual meeting and the sharp rise in US stocks, A - shares opened higher and strengthened in the morning, retreated at noon, but recovered during the day, closing at a high point. However, treasury bonds showed an independent trend. After being affected by the stock market at the opening, they continued to rise in the morning and consolidated at a high level in the afternoon, ending the previous continuous decline. The bond market's desensitization to the stock market may mean that the short - term adjustment is in place and the bottom is becoming clear. The Shanghai property market new policy is expected to have limited impact on the overall real estate market and will not be a negative factor for the bond market [3]. 3.4国债期货日度数据 - The report provides data on the closing prices, changes, contract holdings, and trading volumes of TS2512, TF2512, T2512, and TL2512, as well as the basis and trading volume of the main contracts and the changes in the basis [4]. 3.5 Other Data Charts - The report also includes charts on the basis and IRR of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL, the interest rate trends of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds, the bond spreads, the financing interest rates of deposit - taking institutions and policy interest rates, the exchange financing interest rates, the money - layer data, the yield trends of US bonds, and the US - China interest rate spreads and RMB exchange rates [5][9][10][12][13].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The bond market is expected to bottom out, and investors are advised to pay attention to the bottom - building process. Trading strategies suggest not short - selling, with cautious investors waiting on the sidelines and aggressive investors making small - scale purchases at intervals [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On August 22, 2025, Treasury bond futures opened lower, turned positive in the morning, and declined in the afternoon, closing down across the board. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds increased significantly but did not reach new highs. The 7 - day reverse repurchase in the open market had a net injection of 12.32 billion yuan, and the funding situation eased, with DR001 falling to around 1.41% [1]. - The prices of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 contracts decreased by 0.006, 0.07, 0.345, and 0.22 respectively compared to the previous day. The positions of TS and TF contracts decreased by 2784 and 166 respectively, while the positions of T and TL contracts increased by 1411 and 1043 respectively [4]. News and Analysis - The "New Fed Wire" reported that Powell will re - evaluate the existing policy framework on Friday. The policy - making framework introduced by the Fed in 2020, which emphasized labor market recovery, is considered no longer applicable in the face of higher and more volatile inflation [2]. - The weighted winning bid rates of the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.83% and 2.15% respectively, with overall multiples of 2.58 and 2.89, and marginal multiples of 1.67 and 2.59 [2]. - The decline in the bond market in the afternoon may be affected by the primary - market tender. The winning bid rate of the 30 - year Treasury bond exceeded the secondary - market rate by 12bp, indicating a poor tender situation. However, the bond market showed signs of desensitization as the A - share market rose strongly in the afternoon, and the bond yields did not reach new highs [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the bond market has calmed down, and attention should be paid to the bottom - building process. If the A - share market's consolidation lasts for several days, it will be beneficial for the bond market to bottom out. Investors are advised not to short. Cautious investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors aiming to buy at the bottom can enter the market with small positions and widen the buying intervals. Focus on the support level of the 10 - year Treasury bond at around 1.8% [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Content a. Market Performance - On Thursday, medium - and long - term Treasury bond futures opened lower and then fluctuated upwards, with all varieties closing higher. The yields of spot bonds declined significantly in the afternoon. The net investment in the 7 - day reverse repurchase in the open market was 124.3 billion yuan. The capital situation was okay, with DR001 around 1.46% [1]. - The trading data of Treasury bond futures on August 21, 2025, showed that TS2509 rose by 0.002, TF2509 fell by - 0.01, T2509 rose by 0.065, and TL2509 fell by - 0.12. The positions of TS, TF, and T contracts decreased, while the position of the TL contract increased. There were also changes in the basis and trading volume of each contract [4]. b. Intraday News - The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed internal differences. Members were worried about tariffs, inflation, and the labor market, and most people believed that inflation was a higher risk than employment. - The central bank added 100 billion yuan in re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses to support flood prevention and disaster relief and post - disaster reconstruction [2].