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国泰海通|固收:走楼梯之后的债市超额:回归“旧”与拥抱“新”——2025年固收中期策略
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the return to economic fundamentals and interest rate perspectives, suggesting that the long-term bond market is not excessively priced compared to deposit rates. The recovery of financing and inflation is relatively lagging, and the current downward trend in bond market rates is deemed reasonable based on loan rates as a benchmark [1]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Trends - Since 2022, the broad interest rate trend indicates that the current decline in bond market rates is justified when viewed through the lens of loan rates. The bond market is currently in a plateau phase due to short-term funding friction and external factors that cast doubt on the sustainability of low long-term domestic interest rates [1]. Monetary Policy Impact - The dual interest rate cuts have both short-term and long-term effects, with monetary policy adjustments leading to a return to "normal" funding conditions. After the reserve requirement ratio cut, funding has marginally tightened due to fluctuations caused by changes in monetary policy deployment timing. The impact of deposit rates on funding outflows is not significant until after 2024, with short-term funding friction expected to end by the end of Q2 [1]. Investment Strategy - Following a stair-step approach, the strategy is shifting again, favoring short-term yield strategies. There may be room for extending duration in Q3. Increased awareness of the risks of long-term interest rate rebounds is suppressing a rush into the bond market. In the short term, yield strategies are more cost-effective, and it is advised to maintain duration without chasing long-term bonds, focusing on convexity points in the yield curve [1]. Low-Interest Rate Environment - In a low-interest rate environment, there is a focus on cost reduction and profit enhancement through new strategies and asset classes. Attention is directed towards innovation bonds and REITs, as well as the expansion and rotation of bond fund ETFs. The rise of quantitative strategies in the bond market is also highlighted [1].