配置力量支撑仍在，关注品种和条款下沉 [Table_Authors] 王宇辰(分析师) 信用债市场周度回顾 260301 本报告导读： 票息策略与套息空间确定性仍较高，信用债配置力量有支撑。 投资要点： 010-83939801 wangyuchen4@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880523020004 张紫睿(分析师) 021-23185652 zhangzirui@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880525040068 [Table_Report] 相关报告 产权弱势，缩量走低 2026.03.01 三月债市能平稳吗：几个关键点 2026.03.01 高位震荡延续，低估值防守为先 2026.02.28 2025 银行经营指标拆解：分层扩张 vs趋同修复 2026.02.25 票息行情未止：接续力量和可挖掘的标的 2026.02.24 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 周 报 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.02 [Table_Summary] 票息策略有效性与套息空间确定性仍较高，信用抗跌属性持续。从 历史经验看，信用债抗跌性较强，与负债端稳定 ...

Group 1 - The current interest rate strategy shows certain advantages, with the value of credit bonds gradually emerging. Since 2025, the bond market has maintained low volatility, and since early 2026, it has steadily recovered, with stable liquidity. The potential for capital gains in credit bonds is relatively limited, but the certainty of interest income is more prominent, highlighting the relative advantage of interest rate strategies. Recently, credit bond sentiment has improved, and spreads have slightly recovered, with medium to short-duration varieties providing stable interest contributions while controlling net value fluctuations, thus demonstrating a favorable cost-performance ratio in the current phase [9][12][31] - In the context of continuous central bank support for liquidity, the price of funds remains relatively low, making credit bonds attractive in terms of interest income. From the current environment, credit bond investments are more suitable to return to allocation logic, with interest rate strategies as the core. The short-end arbitrage space still exists, and under the premise of controllable funding costs, medium to short-duration varieties have a relatively stable rolling income base [12][31] Group 2 - The distribution of urban investment bonds shows that Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong have the largest stock sizes, with 27,995.77 billion, 22,357.20 billion, and 16,089.69 billion respectively. The head provinces are generally at a lower valuation level compared to the national average. For example, the 1-year AA-rated bonds in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are at 1.74%, below the national average of 1.75% [16][17] - The overall stock of urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2% is approximately 89,374.08 billion, with 7,252.75 billion having a remaining maturity of 3 years or less, accounting for about 8.1% of the high-yield stock. The high-yield urban investment stock is mainly concentrated in eastern provinces, while the short-duration allocable scale comes more from the central and western regions [18][19][24] Group 3 - The distribution of industrial bonds shows that high-yield resources are mainly concentrated in the real estate, non-bank financial, and construction decoration sectors. As of February 11, 2026, the stock of industrial bonds with a valuation above 2% is approximately 7.33 trillion, with a remaining maturity of 3 years or less amounting to 1.22 trillion. The industry distribution is highly concentrated, with real estate, non-bank financial, and construction decoration being the core sources of current industrial bond interest assets [31][33] - The real estate sector remains the absolute mainstay of high-yield industrial bonds, with a stock valuation above 2% reaching 1.02 trillion, of which 4,328.59 billion is allocable within 3 years. The non-bank financial sector ranks second, with a high-yield stock of approximately 940.1 billion, and 1,385 billion within 3 years, concentrated in the 2-3 year AA and AA+ levels [31][33]

票息行情未止：接续力量和可挖掘的标的 [Table_Authors] 张紫睿(分析师) 信用债市场周度回顾 260223 本报告导读： 下一步承接力量为配置盘打底+交易盘接力，短端和科创债值得挖掘。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | | 021-23185652 | | --- | --- | | | zhangzirui@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040068 | | | 王宇辰(分析师) | | | 010-83939801 | | | wangyuchen4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523020004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 春节期间需关注的几件事 ——海外篇 2026.02.22 M2-社融、存贷款双背离，银行间资金宽松的长 期逻辑 2026.02.22 节后第一周地方债发行金额 2564 亿元，2 月实际 发行将超万亿 2026.02.22 震荡市宜因子动态均衡 2026.02.21 持 ETF 过春节，短信用债 ETF 获大量申购 2026.02.16 债 券 研 究 市 场 策 略 周 报 1. 票息行情 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the current market is likely to experience a divergence in expectations, moving from a long-term bullish sentiment to a more uncertain and volatile environment, making interest rate strategies more favorable [1] - The primary risk associated with interest rate strategies is default risk, which has evolved over time, particularly in the context of credit bonds [1] Group 1: Credit Bond Default Risk Reassessment - Historical default rates show that private enterprises have a higher proportion of defaults, particularly in the real estate sector, while state-owned enterprises and banks have experienced occasional unexpected risks [11] - The current landscape of industrial bonds is dominated by state-owned enterprises, with a low probability of events similar to "Yong Coal," indicating that risk industries have reached a bottom [12] - The preference for holdings in public bond funds is shifting towards state-owned enterprises, counter-cyclical industries, quality regions, and leading institutions, reflecting a low exposure to risk [12] Group 2: Market Volatility and Interest Rate Strategies - The report outlines two main strategies for navigating the anticipated market volatility in 2026: - Strategy One focuses on credit downshifting and long-duration bonds with yields above 2.5%, targeting stable liabilities and absolute returns, particularly in city investment bonds and state-owned enterprise bonds [2] - Strategy Two emphasizes high liquidity and low volatility bonds with yields above 2.0%, aimed at defensive allocations in strong regions and leading enterprises [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Economic Indicators - The report notes that the lack of sufficient negative factors, combined with a weak economic recovery and unchanged monetary policy, suggests that the market will likely remain in a state of fluctuation [2] - The report highlights that while there is some room for interest rate cuts, the timing will depend on the verification of increasing economic recovery pressures [2] - The bond market is currently constrained within a range, leading to a higher probability of volatility [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - During the period from February 2nd to February 8th, most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors increased, with an overall change range of -1 BP to 4 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month, corporate bonds remained at zero issuance, the issuance amounts of corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and private placement notes increased, while the issuance amount of commercial paper decreased. The net financing amount of credit bonds increased month - on - month, the net financing amount of commercial paper decreased, the net financing amounts of other varieties increased, and the net financing amount of corporate bonds was negative [1][60]. - In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds continued to decline month - on - month. The trading volume of private placement notes increased, while the trading volumes of other varieties decreased. Most of the yields of credit bonds declined, and most of the credit spreads widened. In terms of quantiles, most of the spreads were at historical lows, and the quantiles of 7 - year varieties were relatively high [1][60]. - From an absolute return perspective, the relatively strong allocation demand will drive the credit bond market to continue its recovery. Although fluctuations and adjustments are inevitable under the influence of both positive and negative factors, the conditions for a comprehensive bear market in credit bonds are still insufficient. In the long run, the yields are still on a downward path, and the idea of increasing allocation during adjustments is still feasible. From a relative return perspective, the compression space of credit spreads at all tenors is insufficient at present, and the cost - effectiveness of most varieties for allocation is not high. The coupon strategy should be cautious in the current allocation thinking, and the trading thinking should be moderately optimistic. The key to bond selection is to keep an eye on the changing trend of interest - rate bonds and pay attention to the coupon value of individual bonds [1][60]. - The central and local governments continue to actively optimize real - estate policies, which have played a positive role in promoting the stabilization of the real - estate market. Although the real - estate market is still in the transition period between old and new models, it is moving towards stabilization. The subsequent policy rhythm and intensity are worth looking forward to. For real - estate bonds, investors with high risk appetite can consider early layout, focusing on enterprises with outstanding new financing and sales recovery, and balancing risks and returns. The focus of allocation is still on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and excellent performance, as well as high - quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. They can also appropriately bet on the trading opportunities brought by the valuation repair of bonds of over - sold real - estate enterprises [2][63]. - For urban investment bonds, under the principle of coordinating development and security, the probability of default is very low, and they can still be a key allocation variety for credit bonds. Under the strict supervision of the clearance of local financing platforms, the reform and transformation of financing platforms are accelerating. Opportunities for the reform and transformation of "entity - type" financing platforms can be concerned. With a coupon - oriented approach, appropriate positive actions can be taken. The allocation strategy can give priority to short - to medium - term credit sinking, and the trading strategy can still choose to extend the duration of medium - to high - grade bonds [3][63]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Situation 3.1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From February 2nd to February 8th, a total of 440 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 356.856 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 15.70%. The net financing amount of credit bonds was 255.063 billion yuan, an increase of 95.222 billion yuan month - on - month [12]. - By variety, corporate bonds had zero issuance with a net financing amount of - 1.818 billion yuan; corporate bonds issued 190 with an issuance amount of 144.4 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 57.73%, and a net financing amount of 122.621 billion yuan; medium - term notes issued 126 with an issuance amount of 110.337 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 32.30%, and a net financing amount of 87.862 billion yuan; commercial paper issued 90 with an issuance amount of 81.706 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 31.91%, and a net financing amount of 35.325 billion yuan; private placement notes issued 34 with an issuance amount of 20.413 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 51.26%, and a net financing amount of 11.073 billion yuan [13]. 3.1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - Most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors increased, with an overall change range of -1 BP to 4 BP. By tenor, the interest rate change range of 1 - year varieties was 0 BP to 3 BP, 3 - year varieties was -1 BP to 3 BP, 5 - year varieties was -1 BP to 4 BP, and 7 - year varieties was -1 BP to 4 BP. By rating, the interest rate change range of key AAA - rated and AAA - rated varieties was -1 BP to 1 BP, AA + - rated varieties was -1 BP to 2 BP, AA - rated varieties was 3 BP to 4 BP, and AA - - rated varieties was 3 BP to 4 BP [14]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation 3.2.1 Market Trading Volume - From February 2nd to February 8th, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 871.756 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 6.58%. The trading volumes of corporate bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes were 15.904 billion yuan, 354.344 billion yuan, 312.069 billion yuan, 131.161 billion yuan, and 58.278 billion yuan respectively. The trading volume of credit bonds continued to decline month - on - month, the trading volume of private placement notes increased, while the trading volumes of other varieties decreased [17]. 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, all varieties' credit spreads widened. For enterprise bonds, most varieties' credit spreads widened, with the spreads of 1 - year AA - rated and AA - - rated, and 3 - year AA - - rated varieties narrowing. For urban investment bonds, most varieties' credit spreads widened, with the spreads of 3 - year AA - - rated, 5 - year AA - rated and AA - - rated varieties narrowing [20][29][37]. 3.2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - and short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 2.69 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread widened by 1.32 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread widened by 1.60 BP. In terms of rating spreads, the 3 - year (AA - )-(AAA) spread remained unchanged, the (AA)-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP [45]. - For AA + enterprise bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread widened by 0.84 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 1.00 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 0.73 BP. In terms of rating spreads, the 3 - year (AA - )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 4.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread remained unchanged [49]. - For AA + urban investment bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 0.83 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread widened by 0.70 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 1.34 BP. In terms of rating spreads, the 3 - year (AA - )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 3.21 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread narrowed by 2.01 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.01 BP [52]. 3.3 Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - According to iFinD statistics, there were no company rating (including outlook) adjustments during the period from February 2nd to February 8th [57]. 3.3.2 Default and Extended - Maturity Bond Statistics - According to iFinD statistics, there were no defaults or extended - maturity of credit bonds issued by any issuer during the period from February 2nd to February 8th [58]. 3.4 Investment Views - The same as the core views mentioned above, including the analysis of credit bonds, real - estate bonds, and urban investment bonds [1][2][3].

Fixed Income Research - The net financing amount is at a historically high level, indicating that the logic of asset scarcity has dissipated. The overall change in the issuance guidance rates published by the trading association has mostly decreased by 5 to 1 basis points. In January, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with only medium-term notes seeing a decrease in issuance amount, while other varieties saw increases. The net financing amount for credit bonds increased month-on-month, with medium-term notes showing a decrease, while other varieties saw increases. Corporate bonds, directional tools had negative net financing, while corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds had positive net financing [2][3]. - In the secondary market, the transaction scale of credit bonds decreased month-on-month, with transaction amounts for all varieties declining. The yield on credit bonds remained low and fluctuated, with most varieties showing a month-on-month decline in average yield. The credit spread for most varieties narrowed month-on-month, with the varieties that widened mainly concentrated in the 7-year term. Most varieties' spreads are at historical lows. From an absolute return perspective, insufficient supply and relatively strong allocation demand will continue to drive the recovery of credit bonds. Although fluctuations are inevitable due to various factors, the conditions for a comprehensive bear market in credit bonds remain insufficient. In the long run, future yields are still in a downward channel, and the strategy of increasing allocation during adjustments remains feasible [3]. Fund Research - In January, the market for actively managed equity funds saw a significant increase in issuance, with a total of 88 new funds issued, amounting to 91.48 billion yuan. The issuance of actively managed equity funds and passive equity funds was 41.70 billion units and 19.62 billion units, respectively, with a significant increase in the issuance of actively managed equity funds. Overall, the issuance market for equity funds has warmed up significantly, especially for actively managed equity funds [6][7]. - The performance of equity markets was outstanding in January, with all types of funds showing varying degrees of increase. The average increase for commodity funds was the largest at 17.92%. The growth style outperformed the value style, and the mid-cap balanced style had the largest increase at 8.99%, while the large-cap value style had the smallest increase at approximately 4.22% [8]. Industry Research - The valuation repair of the real estate chain can continue, with positive signals from the government regarding real estate policies. The market is transitioning from a large-scale expansion phase to a focus on quality improvement. The goal is to actively construct a new development model for real estate, emphasizing both short-term and long-term strategies. The sales recovery process will significantly impact bond valuations, and investors with a higher risk appetite may consider early positioning, especially in companies showing strong performance in new financing and sales recovery [4][10]. - In the paper industry, several leading companies have announced price increases for white cardboard and corrugated paper, with expected price hikes of 200 yuan/ton for white cardboard and 30-50 yuan/ton for corrugated paper. The upcoming annual maintenance period for paper companies will disrupt supply, while the approaching Spring Festival will boost packaging demand from e-commerce, food, and beverage sectors, supporting price increases [12]. - In the metals industry, the steel sector is expected to continue a weak performance due to the Spring Festival holiday, with production and demand both shrinking. The copper market is also anticipated to see inventory accumulation due to reduced production activities during the holiday, with a focus on post-holiday demand verification [13][15].

Group 1 - The net financing amount of credit bonds is at a historically high level, indicating that the logic of asset scarcity has dissipated [1] - In January, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with the exception of medium-term notes, which saw a decrease in issuance amount [11] - The overall trend in credit bond yields remains low, with most varieties showing a month-on-month decline in average yields [59] Group 2 - The real estate market is transitioning from a phase of large-scale expansion to one focused on quality improvement, supported by ongoing policy optimization [60][61] - The recovery in real estate sales is expected to significantly impact bond valuations, with a focus on companies showing strong performance in new financing and sales recovery [61] - Investment strategies should prioritize high-quality state-owned enterprises and well-secured private enterprise bonds, while also considering opportunities in undervalued real estate bonds [61] Group 3 - The likelihood of default on urban investment bonds is low, making them a key focus for credit bond allocation [3] - The reform and transformation of financing platforms are accelerating under strict regulations, presenting opportunities for "entity-type" financing platforms [3] - Investment strategies should favor mid-to-short-term credit bonds while maintaining a cautious approach to trading strategies [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the bond market may continue to fluctuate, and the coupon strategy may remain a relatively prudent choice. With low credit spreads and the need to control duration risk, investment strategies can focus on the refined exploration of variety spreads, increasing the allocation of low - credit - risk and high - absolute - return varieties [1][2] - Secondary perpetual bonds still have investment value, but their volatility may increase. It is recommended that trading desks control their positions according to their liability - side conditions and try reverse operations [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Credit Bonds: Explore Variety Spreads, Pay Attention to Volatility Risks of Secondary Perpetual Bonds 3.1.1 Low Credit Spreads, Focus on Variety Spread Exploration - In January, the long - end interest rate showed a trend of "rapid rise → rapid fall → slow fall", credit bond yields declined, and credit spreads narrowed across the board. Medium - and low - rated bonds outperformed high - rated ones, and medium - and long - term varieties performed better [10][11] - In February, the bond market may continue to fluctuate. For accounts with unstable liability sides, it is not recommended to chase long - term credit. Focusing on medium - and short - term varieties may be relatively advantageous. After the spread compression in January, credit spreads are generally at a low level [14][15] - Investment strategies can focus on three aspects: exploring the spreads of perpetual varieties, seizing the allocation opportunities of brokerage bonds and brokerage sub - bonds, and grasping the "oversold" repair opportunities of science and technology innovation bond component bonds [18] 3.1.2 Secondary Perpetual Bonds Still Have Allocation Value, but Volatility May Increase - In January 2026, bank secondary perpetual bonds had a catch - up rally, with yields declining across the board and credit spreads narrowing, generally outperforming ordinary credit bonds. This rally was mainly driven by funds, while insurance's net buying volume gradually decreased [32][33] - 3 - 5 - year large - bank secondary perpetual bonds still have certain allocation value for accounts with stable liability sides. However, with the rapid entry of trading - desk funds such as funds and the reduction of insurance's buying volume, the volatility of secondary perpetual bonds may increase [39] 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds: Net Financing Increased Year - on - Year, Medium - and Long - Term Transaction Activity Rose - In January, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive and increased year - on - year. The issuance proportion of medium - and long - term urban investment bonds increased, and the weighted average issuance interest rate decreased across the board [42] - The yields of urban investment bonds declined across the board in January, with medium - and long - term and low - grade varieties performing better. The trading sentiment of urban investment bonds improved, and the medium - and long - term transaction activity increased [48][54] 3.3 Industrial Bonds: Short - End Issuance Proportion Increased, Medium - and Long - Term Secondary Performance was Superior - In January, the issuance and net financing scale of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. The short - term issuance proportion of industrial bonds continued to rise, and the issuance interest rate generally declined [57] - The yields of industrial bonds declined across the board in January, with medium - and long - term varieties showing obvious repair. Most industries' public offering bond yields declined, and medium - and long - term varieties performed better [59][62] 3.4 Bank Secondary Perpetual Bonds: Transaction Sentiment Warmed Up, Medium - and Long - Term Varieties Significantly Repaired - In January 2026, there were no new bank secondary perpetual bond issuances, and the net financing was - 415 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 36.1 billion yuan [65] - The yields of bank secondary perpetual bonds declined across the board in January, with medium - and long - term varieties significantly repaired. The trading sentiment of bank secondary perpetual bonds warmed up, and the transaction of city commercial bank secondary perpetual bonds spread to medium - and low - grade bonds [71][74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the bond market showed an N-shaped trend, with credit products outperforming interest rate products. Credit - type bond funds performed better among various medium - and long - term pure bond funds [2][8]. - The share of medium - and long - term pure bond funds in the whole market declined, while the share of high - performing bond funds slightly expanded marginally [2][17]. - The net value of high - performing bond funds significantly recovered in Q4 2025, with about 80% of the income concentrated in October [2][22]. - In terms of bond allocation, high - performing bond funds increased the allocation of secondary and perpetual bonds and reduced the allocation of national bonds. They also reduced the overall positions in interest rate bonds and credit bonds, with a more significant decline in interest rate bonds [2][28]. - The investment strategies of high - performing bond funds included reducing duration, leverage, and moderately adopting a credit - sinking strategy [2][39]. - In the short term, the 10Y national bond is likely to oscillate between 1.8% - 1.9%, and the coupon strategy may still be effective. In the long term, bonds may be weak assets, and a neutral underlying allocation is recommended [2][54]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview: Coupon Strategy Slightly Outperforms - In Q4 2025, the bond market showed an N - shaped trend. Credit products performed better than interest rate products. Among medium - and long - term pure bond funds, credit - type bond funds performed more outstandingly. For example, products like Jinxin Minxing A and F安达富利纯债A had stable net value growth in Q4 2025, and their annual net value growth rates were over 3% [2][8][13]. 3.2 Share: Decline in the Share of Medium - and Long - Term Pure Bond Funds in the Whole Market, Marginal Expansion of High - Performing Bond Funds - Affected by performance, the share of medium - and long - term pure bond funds in the whole market continued to shrink. However, high - performing medium - and long - term pure bond funds may have benefited from performance support, with a marginal increase in their shares. Some bond funds, such as Xingquan Wentai A, Chang Sheng Sheng Yu Pure Bond A, and Xingzheng Global Hengyuan A, expanded by over 2.5 billion in a single quarter [2][17][18]. 3.3 Net Value: Significant Recovery of the Net Value of High - Performing Bond Funds in Q4 2025 - In Q3 2025, high - performing bond funds in the sample generally recorded negative returns. In Q4 2025, they significantly recovered their net values, with about 80% of the income concentrated in October. Some high - performing products had a net value increase of over 1.0% in October, while there were slight fluctuations or even slight retracements in November and December [2][22]. 3.4 Bond Allocation: Increase in Secondary and Perpetual Bonds, Decrease in National Bonds 3.4.1 Bond Investment Portfolio: Stable Credit, Decrease in Interest Rate - By the end of Q4 2025, high - performing bond funds in the sample reduced their positions in both interest rate bonds and credit bonds, with a more significant decline in interest rate bonds. The weighted average position of interest rate bonds decreased by 5.57 percentage points to 22.01%, and the weighted average position of credit bonds decreased by 0.23 percentage points to 94.44% [28]. - In terms of interest rate bonds, high - performing bond funds reduced their positions in both national bonds and policy - financial bonds, with a more prominent reduction in national bonds. In terms of credit bonds, although the overall position was basically flat, there was an obvious shift in the preference for internal bond types, with a reduction in enterprise bonds and medium - term notes and an increase in financial bonds (excluding policy - financial bonds) [32]. 3.4.2 Top Five Bond Holdings: Decrease in Concentration, Mainly Increase in Secondary and Perpetual Bonds - In Q4 2025, the concentration of high - performing bond funds in the sample decreased, and the holdings became more diversified. The weighted average concentration of high - performing bond funds was about 20.16%, a decrease of 3.35 percentage points from the end of the previous quarter [33]. - In terms of bond categories, high - performing bond funds mainly increased the allocation of secondary and perpetual bonds and reduced the allocation of national bonds in their top five bond holdings, which was consistent with the overall adjustment direction of their holdings. By the end of Q4 2025, the proportion of secondary and perpetual bonds increased by 6.11 percentage points to 37.24%, while the proportion of national bonds decreased by 5.09 percentage points to 2.79% [35]. 3.5 Investment Strategy: Decrease in Duration, Leverage, and Moderate Credit - Sinking 3.5.1 Duration: Marginal Decrease - In Q4 2025, the duration of the heavy - holding bond portfolio of high - performing bond funds in the sample decreased marginally, indicating a defensive duration management strategy. The duration center of the top five heavy - holding bond portfolios decreased by 0.92 years to 3.09 years. Some bond funds, such as Western Securities Seasonal Steady 90 - Day Rolling A, had a duration of less than 1 year. The duration of Southern Runyuan Pure Bond AB adjusted significantly, decreasing by about 8 years [39]. 3.5.2 Leverage: Decrease - In Q4 2025, high - performing bond funds in the sample generally showed a trend of reducing leverage. The weighted average leverage ratio was 121.09%, a decrease of 4.71 percentage points compared with Q3 2025. Some bond funds, such as Bank of China Pure Bond A, had a relatively high leverage ratio, while others like Xingzheng Global Hengyuan A had a relatively low leverage ratio [46]. 3.5.3 Credit - Sinking: Moderate Sinking - High - performing bond funds in the sample showed a cautious and moderate credit - sinking strategy. They increased their holdings of AA + - rated credit bonds and reduced their holdings of AA - rated credit bonds, with the focus of holdings shifting from low - rated to medium - low - rated bonds [50]. 3.6 Summary and Outlook - In Q4 2025, compared with Q3 2025, high - performing bond funds in the sample showed characteristics such as adjusting bond allocation, reducing duration and leverage, and moderately adopting a credit - sinking strategy. - In the short term, the 10Y national bond is likely to oscillate between 1.8% - 1.9%, and the coupon strategy may still be effective. In the long term, bonds may be weak assets, and a neutral underlying allocation is recommended. The continuation of the bond market rally depends on factors such as the persistence of weak credit demand, the continuation of the equity bull market, and the participation of trading accounts [54][63]. 3.7 Appendix - The selection criteria for medium - and long - term bond funds in the sample include being established before 2024, non - fixed - open and non - closed, with a single - holder share ratio of less than 80% from H2 2023 to H1 2024, and an average fund share of more than 500 million from Q3 2024 to Q1 2025 [67]. - The classification basis for the holding styles of bond funds in the sample includes interest - rate - type, financial - type, credit - type, and balanced - type bond funds [65]. - The selection criteria for high - performing bond funds include ranking among the top 50 in net value growth rate in Q4 2025 and having an average fund share of more than 500 million in the previous three periods [67].

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Bond Market Annual Forum highlighted expectations for long-term interest rates to remain in a wide range of fluctuations, with potential for a gradual recovery in the macro economy if housing prices stabilize in the next two years [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - Long-term interest rates are expected to experience wide fluctuations at the bottom [1] - A gradual upward trend in the interest rate center is anticipated, driven by a potential stabilization in housing prices and ongoing "anti-involution" efforts [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The market environment suggests avoiding unilateral duration strategies, favoring a focus on coupon strategies [1] - Recommendations include using short-duration credit bonds as a base, employing leverage strategies for interest rate arbitrage, and actively managing long-end volatility to enhance returns [1] - There is an emphasis on actively positioning in "fixed income +" opportunities [1]