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偏离修复的行业配置策略
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金融工程指数量化系列:基于偏离修复的行业配置策略
Group 1 - The report highlights that among 31 industries, 17 industries have returns exceeding that of the CSI 300 index, indicating potential for superior returns through industry selection [5][12]. - The analysis of the industry indices relative to the CSI 300 shows that a simple average allocation can yield an excess return of 34% over the specified period [12]. - It is noted that holding a single industry may lead to significant drawdowns and longer recovery times, suggesting the necessity of timing in investment decisions [12]. Group 2 - The report discusses the deviation recovery strategy, emphasizing that a simple approach based on relative deviation to the CSI 300 may overlook one-sided deviation opportunities [22]. - The analysis of the top three drawdowns across industries reveals that the steel and petrochemical sectors are often in a single drawdown cycle, while industries like food and beverage, retail, and non-bank financials show significant differences in maximum drawdowns compared to other drawdowns [25][26]. - The effective deviation screening algorithm is introduced, which involves calculating the maximum drawdown and filtering based on statistical measures to identify suitable industries for investment [30][38]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the household appliances and food and beverage sectors have a higher number of drawdowns compared to other industries, suggesting increased volatility [33]. - The iterative method for filtering effective drawdowns significantly reduces the proportion of selected drawdowns, enhancing the stability of the strategy [55][56]. - The report concludes that the deviation recovery strategy is more applicable to industries with stable volatility patterns over time, while it may miss opportunities in sudden market movements [69].