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黑色金属数据日报-20260319
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-19 07:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the market shows a unilateral oscillation. There are opportunities for long - basis trading in the spot - futures market. The industry is expected to enter a stage of strong supply and demand, but high inventory restricts the rebound elasticity. Unilateral trading can participate in pulse - rebound bands, and it's advisable to focus on hot - rolled coils for basis trading and spot - futures positive spreads [2]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the cost support is limited, and weak demand restricts the upward space. The market is in a range - bound state. It's recommended to operate within the range and not chase the high prices, and pay attention to tender prices [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the market sentiment fluctuates, but the geopolitical impact continues. The market is highly influenced by geopolitical factors, and the focus is on geopolitical developments. It's recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and consider phased spot - futures positive spreads [4]. - For iron ore, due to BHP's leadership change and uncertain supply - demand situation, it's advisable to wait and see instead of chasing long or short positions [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On March 18, the closing prices of far - month contracts such as RB2610, JM2609, etc., had different changes in price and percentage. The closing prices of near - month contracts also showed various price fluctuations, and there were corresponding changes in cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and profits [1]. - Spot prices of different steel products in various regions had small changes. The market is in a state of unilateral oscillation, with the industry moving towards a situation of strong supply and demand. High inventory restricts the rebound elasticity. Unilateral trading can focus on pulse - rebound bands, and it's recommended to focus on hot - rolled coils for basis trading and spot - futures positive spreads [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the overall commodity market has strengthened, but the impact on ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is mainly through sentiment, with limited real influence. The cost support is mainly from manganese ore. The demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and the supply pressure from new northern production capacity is emerging. The market is in a range - bound state, and it's recommended to operate within the range and not chase high prices [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the results of spot auctions vary, and the market sentiment is weakening. The prices of coking coal and coke in some ports and regions have changed. The inventory at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high. On the futures side, the market is dominated by geopolitical impact, and the focus is on the situation in Iran and the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. The market is highly influenced by geopolitical factors, and the focus is on geopolitical developments. It's recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and consider phased spot - futures positive spreads [4]. Iron Ore - There are market rumors about BHP's leadership change and the negotiation with Chinese mining companies. There are also rumors about the restriction of Newman powder procurement, which has caused fluctuations in the iron - ore market. The supply - demand situation is uncertain. Considering BHP's leadership change, it's advisable to wait and see instead of chasing long or short positions [5].