Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: Continue to fluctuate. Spot prices fell slightly on Tuesday with reduced trading volume. The industry's weekly production, sales, and inventory improved, but the improvement rate decreased. Plate demand has reached the seasonal peak, while building materials still have room to grow. Due to increased geopolitical differences, the strong cost support logic has weakened, and the unilateral trend has turned to a fluctuating pattern. Consider long basis or cash - futures positive arbitrage opportunities [2]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Supply - demand situation has improved, and costs are supported. The supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly last week, while the production of silicomanganese decreased. Steel mill demand improved significantly, and non - steel demand also provided marginal support. Ferrosilicon inventory decreased, and silicomanganese inventory increased slightly, with overall inventory pressure under control. Manganese ore prices are strong, providing cost support [2][4]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The sentiment in the spot market has further cooled. Auction failure rates are high, and prices are mainly falling. The high oil price story is affecting the market, and the actual price increase of coke is slower than expected, leading to a cooling of the bullish sentiment. Consider taking profits on the previously recommended coke hedging strategy [5]. - Iron Ore: Prices are mainly in a high - level fluctuation. Due to the undetermined negotiation between Sinosteel and BHP, prices are unlikely to drop significantly in the short term. Without new restrictive policies, prices are also difficult to break through upwards. It is not recommended to chase long positions on the iron ore futures [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Changes**: On March 31, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3146.00 yuan/ton, down 19.00 yuan (- 0.60%); HC2610 closed at 3310.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan (- 0.27%); J2609 closed at 1787.00 yuan/ton, down 56.00 yuan (- 3.04%); JM2609 closed at 1278.00 yuan/ton, down 79.50 yuan (- 5.86%). For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3121.00 yuan/ton, down 15.00 yuan (- 0.48%); HC2605 closed at 3294.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan (- 0.33%); J2605 closed at 1701.50 yuan/ton, down 55.00 yuan (- 3.13%); JM2605 closed at 1148.50 yuan/ton, down 69.50 yuan (- 5.71%) [1]. - **Spread and Ratio**: On March 31, the coil - rebar spread was 173.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan; the rebar - ore ratio was 3.86, unchanged; the coal - coke ratio was 1.48, up 0.04; the rebar disk profit was - 120.70 yuan/ton, up 16.25 yuan; the coking disk profit was 174.00 yuan/ton, up 35.12 yuan [1]. Spot Market - **Steel**: On March 31, Shanghai rebar was 3200.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3190.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 2980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3270.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3290.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan [1]. - **Other**: On March 31, Qingdao Port's Super Special Powder was 670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ganqimao Du's coking coal was 1310.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke was 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qingdao Port's PB was 785.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan [1]. Investment Strategies - Steel: Unilateral position should be on the sidelines. Gradually enter the long basis opportunity for hot - rolled coils [7]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Adopt the strategy of short - term long positions on dips [7]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Unilateral position should be on the sidelines. Take profits on the previously recommended cash - futures positive arbitrage positions [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel, the market is oscillating. There are opportunities to go long on the basis of hot - rolled coils. It's advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and gradually enter the opportunity to go long on the basis of hot - rolled coils for spot - futures trading [5][10] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the supply - demand situation is improving with cost support. The trading strategy is to go short - term long on dips [6][10] - For coking coal and coke, the spot market sentiment is further cooling. It's recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and stop profiting on the previously recommended spot - futures positive arbitrage positions [7][10] - For iron ore, the price is mainly oscillating at a high level. It's recommended to take a wait - and - see approach and operate within the oscillating range instead of chasing high or low [8][10] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: On March 30, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3168 yuan/ton with a rise of 20 yuan (0.64%); HC2610 at 3323 yuan/ton with a rise of 17 yuan (0.51%); J2609 at 1842 yuan/ton with a rise of 6 yuan (0.33%); JM2609 at 1352.5 yuan/ton with a rise of 3 yuan (0.22%). For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3139 yuan/ton with a rise of 18 yuan (0.58%); HC2605 at 3308 yuan/ton with a rise of 11 yuan (0.33%); J2605 at 1753.5 yuan/ton with a rise of 3.5 yuan (0.20%); JM2605 at 1214 yuan/ton with a fall of 4 yuan (- 0.33%) [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: On March 30, RB2605 - 2610 was - 29 yuan/ton with a fall of 2 yuan; HC2605 - 2610 was - 15 yuan/ton with a fall of 4 yuan; J2605 - 2609 was 22 yuan/ton with a fall of 2 yuan; JM2605 - 2609 was - 138.5 yuan/ton with a fall of 0.5 yuan [1] - **Spreads, Ratios and Profits**: On March 30, the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 169 yuan/ton with a fall of 6 yuan; the rebar to iron ore ratio was 3.86 with a rise of 0.01; the coal to coke ratio was 1.44 with a rise of 0.01; the rebar on - paper profit was - 136.95 yuan/ton with a rise of 12.6 yuan; the coking on - paper profit was 138.88 yuan/ton with a rise of 8.15 yuan [1] Spot Market - **Steel Spot Prices**: On March 30, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan/ton with a rise of 50 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3230 yuan/ton with a rise of 50 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3420 yuan/ton with a fall of 50 yuan; Tangshan billet was 2960 yuan/ton with a fall of 20 yuan. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3280 yuan/ton with no change; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan/ton with no change; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3320 yuan/ton with a rise of 50 yuan; the billet - to - finished - product spread was 290 yuan/ton with a rise of 60 yuan [1] - **Other Spot Prices**: On March 30, the price of ferrosilicon was 670 yuan/ton with no change; silicomanganese was 727 yuan/ton with no change; coking coal at Ganqimao Port (Meng 5 raw coal) was 1141 yuan/ton with a rise of 5 yuan; Meng 5 clean coal at Ganqimao Port was 1308 yuan/ton with no change; Meng 5 clean coal in Hebei Tangshan was 1450 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1430 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port PB iron ore was 792 yuan/ton with a rise of 4 yuan [1] - **Basis**: On March 30, the HC main - contract basis was - 28 yuan/ton with a fall of 9 yuan; the RB main - contract basis was 111 yuan/ton with a rise of 35 yuan; the J main - contract basis was - 180.87 yuan/ton with a fall of 1.5 yuan; the JM main - contract basis was 126 yuan/ton with a rise of 5 yuan [1] Industry Analysis - **Steel**: The spot price was stable on Monday with a small increase in most regions. The market sentiment was generally stable. The weekly production, sales and inventory showed improvement, and the supply - demand boom could be maintained. The plate apparent demand reached the seasonal peak, while the building materials still had room to grow. The cost support fluctuated due to geopolitical issues, and the single - side trading shifted to an oscillating strategy. There were opportunities to go long on the basis or conduct spot - futures positive arbitrage, with hot - rolled coils being the best choice [5] - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The supply - demand situation improved. The ferrosilicon industry's weekly supply increased slightly, while the silicomanganese production decreased slightly. The steel mill demand improved significantly, and the non - steel demand also provided marginal support. The inventory pressure was controllable, and the cost was supported by the strong coal and manganese ore prices [6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot market sentiment further cooled. The auction prices mostly fell. The futures market was dominated by the Middle - East situation. The coal - coke 05 contract was weaker than the 09 contract, mainly due to the 05 delivery logic. It was recommended to stop profiting on the previously recommended coke selling hedging strategy as the basis strengthened [7] - **Iron Ore**: The price was oscillating at a high level. It was difficult for the price to decline significantly in the short term due to the undetermined negotiation between China's mines and BHP, and it was also difficult to break through upwards due to high port inventory and oversupply. It was not recommended to chase long on the iron ore futures, and it was advisable to operate within the oscillating range [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The steel market is in a state of shock. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and gradually intervene in the opportunity of going long on the basis of hot - rolled coils [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The supply - demand situation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has improved, and there is cost support. The trading idea is to go long on dips [3][6] - Coking Coal and Coke: The first round of price increase for coke has finally landed. The upward driving force of the industrial fundamentals is limited. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and consider taking profit on the previously recommended spot - futures arbitrage positions [4][6] - Iron Ore: The price of iron ore is mainly in high - level shock. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [5][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On March 27, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2610, HC2610, J2609, and JM2609 were 3151.00 yuan/ton, 3310.00 yuan/ton, 1839.50 yuan/ton, and 1357.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of - 9.00 yuan, - 7.00 yuan, - 18.00 yuan, and - 17.00 yuan, and the decline rates were - 0.28%, - 0.21%, - 0.97%, and - 1.24% respectively [1] - The near - month contract closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3124.00 yuan/ton, 3299.00 yuan/ton, 1752.00 yuan/ton, and 1219.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of - 7.00 yuan, - 9.00 yuan, - 18.50 yuan, and - 18.00 yuan, and the decline rates were - 0.22%, - 0.27%, - 1.04%, and - 1.46% respectively [1] - The cross - month spreads of RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, J2605 - 2609, and JM2605 - 2609 were - 27.00 yuan/ton, - 11.00 yuan/ton, - 87.50 yuan/ton, and - 138.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 3.00 yuan, - 3.00 yuan, 0.50 yuan, and 130 yuan respectively [1] - The spread/ratio/profit indicators such as the coil - to - rebar spread, rebar - to - ore ratio, coal - to - coke ratio, rebar disk profit, and coking disk profit also had corresponding changes on March 27 [1] Spot Market - On March 27, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3200.00 yuan/ton, 3180.00 yuan/ton, 3470.00 yuan/ton, 2970.00 yuan/ton, and 108.10 respectively, with corresponding changes of 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 10.00 yuan, and - 0.40 respectively [1] - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coils, Hangzhou hot - rolled coils, Guangzhou hot - rolled coils, billet - to - product spreads, and PB at Rizhao Port were 3280.00 yuan/ton, 3290.00 yuan/ton, 3270.00 yuan/ton, 230.00 yuan/ton, and 786.00 respectively, with corresponding changes of 0.00 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, - 50.00 yuan, 10.00 yuan, and - 6.00 respectively [1] - The spot prices of some coking coal and coke products also had corresponding changes on March 27 [1] - The basis values of HC, RB, J, and JM on March 27 were - 19.00 yuan/ton, 76.00 yuan/ton, - 179.37 yuan/ton, and 121.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 6.00 yuan, 4.00 yuan, 9.00 yuan, and 81.00 yuan respectively [1] Industry Analysis - Steel: The spot market was weakly stable over the weekend, with individual regional spot prices dropping slightly by 10 yuan. The futures price fluctuated after rising last week. The weekly production, sales, and inventory improved, but the improvement rate narrowed. The supply - demand situation of both sides was good, and the peak value of the plate apparent demand index had reached the seasonal peak range, while the building materials still had room to rise, with the peak expected in April. Geopolitical differences increased, and the strong cost support fluctuated. It was recommended to focus on the opportunity of going long on the basis or spot - futures arbitrage, with hot - rolled coils being optimal [2] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The supply - demand situation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese improved. The weekly supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly, while the weekly output of manganese silicon decreased slightly. The demand from steel mills improved significantly, and the non - steel demand also provided marginal support. The inventory of ferrosilicon decreased, and the inventory of manganese silicon increased slightly, with the overall accumulation pressure controllable. The cost of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese was supported by the strong coal and manganese ore prices affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: The first round of price increase for coke finally landed on April 1, later than expected. The market sentiment of bullishness cooled down. The price of high - priced coal in the auction declined. The import of Mongolian coal maintained a high - level operation, and the port inventory accumulation problem was not effectively alleviated. The futures market was dominated by the Middle East situation. The price of coal and coke in the spot market was driven by the futures market, but the downstream's ability to accept price increases was under pressure. The market mainly focused on the development of the Middle East situation. Currently, the 05 contract was weaker than the 09 contract, mainly due to the 05 delivery logic [4] - Iron Ore: The price of iron ore was in high - level shock this week. Due to the undetermined negotiation between China Minmetals and BHP, the price was difficult to decline significantly in the short term. If new restrictive policies were introduced, the price was also difficult to break through upwards. The port inventory was high, and the supply was in surplus this year. The change of BHP's CEO on July 1 was worthy of attention. It was not recommended to chase long on the disk, and the price was more likely to be in high - level shock [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For steel, the market sentiment has cooled, and there is an opportunity to go long on the basis of hot-rolled coils. The supply and demand pattern is still good, but the cost support logic has loosened, and a sideways trading strategy is recommended. Consider basis trading or cash-and-carry arbitrage, with hot-rolled coils being the optimal choice [1]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the market is experiencing repeated sentiment and increased price volatility. The cost is supported by coal and manganese ore, but the demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and supply pressure is emerging. The market is in a range-bound state [2][4]. - For coking coal and coke, the situation remains volatile, and risk control is the main focus. The first price increase for spot goods may be postponed to the end of the month. The futures market is dominated by the Middle East situation, and the price may rise or fall depending on the development of the situation. The 05 contract is weaker than the 09 contract [4]. - For iron ore, the price is mainly trading in a high-range. Due to the undetermined negotiation between CITIC Metal and BHP, the price is unlikely to decline significantly in the short term, nor is it likely to break through upward. It is recommended to trade within the range rather than chasing high or shorting [5]. Summary by Content Steel - On March 26, the closing prices of far - month contracts such as RB2610, JM2609, etc., and near - month contracts like RB2605, JM2605, etc., showed different price changes. For example, the far - month RB2610 closed at 3313.00 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 9.00 yuan and a decline rate of - 0.28%. The near - month RB2605 closed at 3128.00 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 14.00 yuan and a decline rate of - 1.13%. The spot prices of Tianjin, Guangzhou, Tangshan, and Shanghai also had corresponding changes [1]. - The market sentiment has cooled, the production and sales data improved marginally on Thursday, and the supply - demand pattern is still good. The peak of plate demand has been reached, while the building materials still have room to grow, with the expected peak in April. Due to geopolitical issues, the cost support logic has loosened, and a sideways trading strategy is recommended. Consider basis trading or cash - and - carry arbitrage, with hot - rolled coils being the optimal choice [1]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Although the impact of geopolitical conflicts on ferrous alloys is mainly through sentiment, coal price increases may support costs. The power cost accounts for a relatively high proportion, and the supply of manganese ore is affected by the typhoon in Australia. The demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and new production capacity in the north is being put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The futures market is strong due to sentiment, but the spot market lags behind, and the basis weakens. The market is in a range - bound state [2][4]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the first price increase may be postponed to the end of the month, but the market atmosphere is still positive. The prices of coking coal in auctions are rising, and the prices of port - traded coke and coking coal index have increased. The downstream market is reluctant to accept high - priced Mongolian coal, and the trading atmosphere is cold. On the futures side, the Middle East situation dominates the market. The oil price is in an unstable state, and there are two possible trends, which will directly affect the price of coking coal. The 05 contract is weaker than the 09 contract, mainly due to the delivery logic [4]. Iron Ore - This week, the iron ore price is trading in a high - range. Due to the undetermined negotiation between CITIC Metal and BHP, the price is unlikely to decline significantly in the short term, nor is it likely to break through upward because of the high port inventory and oversupply. The change of BHP's CEO may affect the negotiation. It is not recommended to chase long positions on the futures market. The price is likely to trade in a high - range, and it is recommended to trade within the range [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is in a stage of strong supply and demand, with iron - water production and steel apparent demand rising. There is a strong cost support for steel, and one can participate in pulse - rebound bands for single - side trading. For the basis trading, focus on the opportunity of going long on the basis of hot - rolled coils [2]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market is in a range - bound state. The cost is supported by coal prices and manganese - ore supply issues, but the demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and there is supply pressure from new production capacity in the north [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is affected by the Middle - East situation. The spot prices are rising, and the first round of price increase for coke is expected to be implemented soon. The market is mainly concerned about the trend of the futures price, which is related to the price of crude oil [5]. - The iron - ore price is in a high - level range - bound state. It is difficult for the price to drop significantly in the short term due to the undetermined negotiation between Chinese mines and BHP, and it is also difficult to break through upwards because of high port inventories and oversupply in the year. It is not recommended to chase long or short, and one can operate according to the range - bound strategy [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Tuesday, the steel spot market was weakly stable, with some varieties dropping slightly by 10 yuan, and the futures price fluctuated. Iron - water production recovered weekly, and the apparent demand of each variety also increased slightly. The industry has entered a stage of strong supply and demand. The apparent demand index of plates has reached the seasonal peak range, while there is still room for building materials. It is expected that the peak will be in April. The inventory of all steel varieties has started to decline. The inventory of building materials is not high, and the main pressure lies in hot - rolled coils. The cost of steel has strong support, and one can participate in single - side trading through pulse - rebound bands. After the recent decline in the basis, one can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the basis or positive arbitrage, with hot - rolled coils being the best choice [2]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - The impact of the geopolitical conflict on ferro - alloy varieties is mainly through sentiment, and the actual influence is limited. The rising coal price may support the cost. The power cost accounts for a relatively high proportion in silicon - iron and manganese - silicon production. Due to the typhoon in Australia, the shipment of some manganese - ore is blocked, which supports the cost of manganese - silicon. The demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and new production capacity in the north is gradually starting up, resulting in supply pressure. The futures market is driven by sentiment, but the spot market lags behind in price increase, and the basis is weakening. The current market is in a range - bound state, with the upper limit restricted by weak demand and increasing supply, and the lower limit supported by cost [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the coking - coal spot auctions have been fully successful, and the price has risen. The mainstream coking enterprises have proposed the first - round price increase, which is expected to be implemented soon. The port - traded quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke is 1500 (+30), and the quasi - first - class dry - quenched coke is 1700 (+30). The coking - coal price index is 1301.2 (+19.3). For Mongolian coal, the quotes of port - trading enterprises remain high, but the downstream enterprises' acceptance of high - priced Mongolian coal is limited, and some enterprises purchase in small quantities as needed. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu port is at a high level. On the futures side, the Middle - East situation dominates the market trend. The price of crude oil is oscillating around 90 US dollars, and the market is highly volatile. The market pricing has shifted from "out - of - control war" to "controllable war". The coking - coal and coke spot prices are driven by the futures market and have already priced in three rounds of price increases, while the first - round increase has just been proposed. If the crude oil price remains high or breaks through, the coking - coal price may further rise. Affected by the rising price of chemical by - products, the pressure for coke price increase is less than that for coking coal [5]. Iron - Ore - This week, the iron - ore price is in a high - level range - bound state. Due to the undetermined negotiation between Chinese mines and BHP, it is difficult for the price to drop significantly in the short term. Without new restrictive policies, it is also difficult for the price to break through upwards because of high port inventories and oversupply in the year. The news that BHP will replace its CEO on July 1 is worthy of attention. The current spot price is at a weak low level, and the 10C6 spot is already at a discount of 6 yuan compared with the 04 contract. It is not recommended to chase long on the iron - ore futures even though the coking - coal price rose strongly on Friday night. The price is more likely to be in a high - level range - bound state when the commodity sentiment is good. It is not recommended to chase high or short, and one can operate according to the range - bound strategy [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel industry is experiencing strong supply and demand, and there are opportunities to go long on the basis. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical conflicts [3][6]. - The coking coal and coke market is showing a trend of catch - up growth. The main logic is still the geopolitical conflict, and the market focus is on the development of geopolitical conflicts and the formation of positive feedback from long - position funds [61]. - The iron ore market is mainly in a high - level shock. It is not recommended to chase high or short, and it can be operated according to the range shock [122]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: The output of the long - process steel has increased significantly, and the molten iron output has increased by 7 to 228.2wt this week. The daily consumption of scrap steel is slowly recovering, slightly weaker than the seasonality. After the impact of environmental protection restrictions fades, the steel output is on the rise [6]. - **Demand**: The seasonal demand for building materials is rising, and both supply and demand are increasing. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils has reached the performance of the seasonal peak season, and whether it can exceed expectations needs 1 - 2 weeks of verification. The demand for medium plates and cold - rolled products is also good [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products has started to decline. The overall inventory level is neutral, and the greatest pressure is on hot - rolled coils, while the inventory - to - sales ratios of other products are acceptable [6]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar fluctuates within a narrow range, and the basis of hot - rolled coils has increased slightly. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 71, a week - on - week decrease of 1; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 17, a week - on - week increase of 8 [6]. - **Profit**: Recently, the increase in the price of furnace materials is higher than that of finished products, and the overall profitability of steel mills is weak. The actual production profit is slightly higher than the statistical profit, and the profit of rebar is slightly better than that of plates. The profitability rate of steel mills is 42.42%, with a week - on - week change of 1.29% [6]. - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils has returned to a premium, while rebar is mostly in a discount structure. The basis of hot - rolled coils is more suitable for participating in spot - futures positive arbitrage, and the spot liquidity is better. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the industrial valuation is relatively low [6]. - **Macro and Risk Preference**: The impact of geopolitical conflicts on the market has not subsided. The black sector is mainly affected by the spill - over of market sentiment. In the short term, coal may be driven upward through energy substitution and increased logistics costs [6]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, it is recommended to go long. During the climbing period of molten iron output and steel apparent demand, there is a natural bullish protection for furnace materials. Coupled with the geopolitical premium, the logic of strong cost support for steel has not been falsified. Unilateral trading can continue to participate in pulse - rebound bands. With the recent decline in the basis, attention can be paid to opportunities for going long on the basis or spot - futures positive arbitrage, with hot - rolled coils being the best choice [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Participate in pulse rebounds. Arbitrage: Take profit when the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar reaches 175+. Spot - futures: Look for opportunities to go long on the basis of hot - rolled coils or engage in spot - futures positive arbitrage [6]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The downstream demand is gradually recovering. This week, the output of five major steel products is 839.82 (+18.85), and the demand is 839.82 (+68.84). After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand continue to recover, and the inventory has started to decline. The blast furnaces of steel mills have started to resume production. This week, the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 228.15 (+6.95), and the profitability rate of steel mills is 42.42% (+1.29%). There is still room for further resumption of production [61]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mines have resumed production quickly. The customs clearance at the Mongolian coal port remains at a high level, and the market transaction situation has improved. The overseas coking coal market is weakly stable, and the purchase intention of market participants has increased, but the price is still inverted [61]. - **Coke Supply**: Coking plants are under normal environmental protection restrictions. This week, the daily average coke output is 111.5 (+0.7), and the coking profit is 38 (+41). Affected by the rising price of chemical by - products, the profitability of coking plants is good [61]. - **Inventory**: The downstream purchasing sentiment is rising. The mines are selling well. The downstream coking and steel enterprises are in the resumption stage. Coupled with the impact of the Middle East conflict, the purchasing enthusiasm is high, and the coking coal and coke inventory is continuously transferred to the downstream [61]. - **Basis/Spread**: After the first round of price cuts by steel mills, the warehouse - receipt cost is around 1680, and after the price increase, it is around 1730. The warehouse - receipt cost of Mongolian coal is around 1200 [61]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 42.42% (+1.29%), and the coking profit is 38 (+41) [61]. - **Summary**: The main logic is still the geopolitical conflict. The market's trading on the Iranian issue has developed from "inflation shock" to "growth shock". Under this market atmosphere, the market sentiment has weakened, and the prices of some supply - reduced products have reached high levels. The coking coal market has shown a catch - up growth. The key to the market lies in the development of geopolitical conflicts and the formation of positive feedback from long - position funds [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: If the coking coal 09 contract hits the daily limit on Monday, it is recommended to go long with a light position and buy call options. Spot - futures positive arbitrage positions can be entered [61]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The Reuters shipping data this period shows a week - on - week increase of 50.3 tons per day to 469 tons per day. The arrivals in China have also increased. The port inventory has decreased by 133.14 tons to 17814.18 tons, but it is still at a high level [122]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of steel mills has increased by 6.95 to 228.15 tons this period. The daily average port desilting volume has increased to 335.92 tons. The port inventory has decreased, mainly due to the policy that steel mills can pick up Jinbuba powder at the port last week [122]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory has decreased by 133.14 tons to 17814.18 tons, but it is still at a high level [122]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills is at a low level [122]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral [122]. - **Summary**: The price of iron ore is in a high - level range shock. Due to the undetermined negotiation between China's mines and BHP, it is difficult for the price to decline significantly in the short term. Without new restrictive policies, it is also difficult for the price to break through upward. It is not recommended to chase high or short, and it can be operated according to the range shock [122]. - **Investment View**: Neutral [122]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Wait and see. Arbitrage: Wait and see for the time being [122].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the market shows a unilateral oscillation. There are opportunities for long - basis trading in the spot - futures market. The industry is expected to enter a stage of strong supply and demand, but high inventory restricts the rebound elasticity. Unilateral trading can participate in pulse - rebound bands, and it's advisable to focus on hot - rolled coils for basis trading and spot - futures positive spreads [2]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the cost support is limited, and weak demand restricts the upward space. The market is in a range - bound state. It's recommended to operate within the range and not chase the high prices, and pay attention to tender prices [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the market sentiment fluctuates, but the geopolitical impact continues. The market is highly influenced by geopolitical factors, and the focus is on geopolitical developments. It's recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and consider phased spot - futures positive spreads [4]. - For iron ore, due to BHP's leadership change and uncertain supply - demand situation, it's advisable to wait and see instead of chasing long or short positions [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On March 18, the closing prices of far - month contracts such as RB2610, JM2609, etc., had different changes in price and percentage. The closing prices of near - month contracts also showed various price fluctuations, and there were corresponding changes in cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and profits [1]. - Spot prices of different steel products in various regions had small changes. The market is in a state of unilateral oscillation, with the industry moving towards a situation of strong supply and demand. High inventory restricts the rebound elasticity. Unilateral trading can focus on pulse - rebound bands, and it's recommended to focus on hot - rolled coils for basis trading and spot - futures positive spreads [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the overall commodity market has strengthened, but the impact on ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is mainly through sentiment, with limited real influence. The cost support is mainly from manganese ore. The demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and the supply pressure from new northern production capacity is emerging. The market is in a range - bound state, and it's recommended to operate within the range and not chase high prices [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the results of spot auctions vary, and the market sentiment is weakening. The prices of coking coal and coke in some ports and regions have changed. The inventory at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high. On the futures side, the market is dominated by geopolitical impact, and the focus is on the situation in Iran and the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. The market is highly influenced by geopolitical factors, and the focus is on geopolitical developments. It's recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and consider phased spot - futures positive spreads [4]. Iron Ore - There are market rumors about BHP's leadership change and the negotiation with Chinese mining companies. There are also rumors about the restriction of Newman powder procurement, which has caused fluctuations in the iron - ore market. The supply - demand situation is uncertain. Considering BHP's leadership change, it's advisable to wait and see instead of chasing long or short positions [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For steel, the unilateral market is expected to have a pulse rebound, and short - term participation is recommended. For the spot - futures relationship, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of going long on the basis of hot - rolled coils [2][6]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the cost support is limited, and weak demand restricts the upward space. The market is characterized by range - bound trading. It is advisable to adopt a low - buying short - term long strategy [2][4][6]. - For coking coal and coke, the spot market sentiment is temporarily stable. The futures market is mainly influenced by geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see on the unilateral market and consider gradually establishing spot - futures arbitrage positions [6][7]. - For iron ore, recent market rumors have led to large price fluctuations. It is not advisable to chase high prices, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. Group 3: Content Summary by Categories Futures Market - On March 17, for far - month contracts, the closing prices of RB2610, HC2610, I2609, J2609, and JM2609 were 3168.00 yuan/ton, 3314.00 yuan/ton, 785.50 yuan/ton, 1809.50 yuan/ton, and 1282.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 8.00 yuan, 14.00 yuan, 13.00 yuan, - 7.00 yuan, and 1.50 yuan, and percentage changes of 0.25%, 0.42%, 1.68%, - 0.39%, and 0.12% [1]. - For near - month (main) contracts, the closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3148.00 yuan/ton, 3313.00 yuan/ton, 816.50 yuan/ton, 1732.00 yuan/ton, and 1176.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 13.00 yuan, 19.00 yuan, 14.50 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, and - 5.00 yuan, and percentage changes of 0.41%, 0.58%, 1.81%, - 0.57%, and - 0.42% [1]. - The cross - month spreads and price differences such as the spread between RB2605 and RB2610, HC2605 and HC2610, etc., as well as the spread/ratio/profit data such as the coil - to - rebar spread, rebar - to - ore ratio, etc., also had corresponding changes on March 17 [1]. Spot Market - On March 17, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3260.00 yuan/ton, 3220.00 yuan/ton, 3430.00 yuan/ton, 2980.00 yuan/ton, and 110.00 respectively, with corresponding changes of 12.00 yuan, 20.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 10.00 yuan, and 1.20 [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - to - product spread, and Rizhao Port PB ore were 3300.00 yuan/ton, 3320.00 yuan/ton, 3290.00 yuan/ton, 280.00 yuan/ton, and 790.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 10.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, and 0.00 yuan [1]. - The spot prices of Qingdao Port super special powder, etc., also had corresponding changes on March 17 [1]. Specific Commodity Analysis - **Steel**: Spot prices rose slightly on Tuesday, and futures prices closed slightly higher. The industry is expected to enter a stage of strong supply and demand. High inventory restricts the rebound elasticity. There is an opportunity to go long on the basis or conduct spot - futures positive arbitrage [2]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East mainly affects through sentiment. The cost support is limited, and the demand is weak. The market is range - bound. It is recommended to operate within the range and not chase high prices [2][4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot market sentiment is stable. The futures market is affected by geopolitical conflicts. The coking profit has been repaired. It is necessary to focus on geopolitical changes [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Market rumors have caused large price fluctuations. If the supply is restricted, there will be a supply gap. It is not advisable to chase high prices and it is recommended to buy on dips [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel**: Cost has support, and opportunities to go long can be sought after the basis weakens. The industry is expected to enter a stage of strong supply and demand after the Two Sessions, but price rebound elasticity may be suppressed under high inventory [5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical conflicts. The market is greatly affected by geopolitical factors, and the uncertainty is strong. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the changes in geopolitical themes [60]. - **Iron Ore**: BHP's iron ore supply is restricted again, and iron ore prices have risen significantly. Policy changes are frequent, and it is not recommended to chase highs or lows. Appropriate dips can be bought [112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Supply**: Affected by previous environmental protection restrictions, pig iron production continued to decline, with a decrease of 6.4 to 221.2 wt this week. Scrap steel daily consumption is slowly recovering, slightly weaker than the seasonal average. After the Two Sessions, production may gradually increase [5]. - **Demand**: Construction material demand is seasonally rising, with both supply and demand increasing. There is no sign of exceeding the seasonal average. Hot - rolled coil production has decreased following the recent decline in pig iron production, while apparent demand has slightly increased. Cold - rolled and medium - plate supply and demand are slightly stronger [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products is still accumulating, but the amplitude is narrowing. Only construction materials (rebar + wire rod) are still accumulating inventory, while plate inventory has begun to decline. The billet inventory also shows signs of reaching the peak and falling. The total inventory level of the five major steel products is at a historical neutral level, with construction material inventory being low and plate and billet inventory being slightly high [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coil and rebar has declined. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 78, a week - on - week decrease of 14; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 25, a week - on - week decrease of 25 [5]. - **Profit**: After the Spring Festival, the increase in furnace charge prices is slightly higher than that of finished products, and the profitability of steel mills has weakened. The actual production profit is slightly higher than the statistical profit, and the rebar profit is slightly better than that of plates. The profitability rate of steel mills is 41.13%, with a weekly change of 3.03% [5]. - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coil has returned to a premium, while rebar is mostly in a discount structure. The basis of hot - rolled coil is more suitable for cash - and - carry arbitrage, and the spot liquidity is better. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is not high [5]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: Geopolitical factors still affect the market. Although the black - metal sector's supply and demand are mainly domestic and less sensitive to geopolitical factors, there is an overflow effect on market sentiment. In the short term, coal may be affected, providing upward impetus through energy substitution and increased logistics costs [5]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Short - term long. In the context of high inventory, the price rebound elasticity may be suppressed. The derivatives market is currently focused on the price pulse increase in the energy - chemical chain triggered by geopolitical issues. There is no unilateral trend - driving market, and pulse - type rebound bands can be participated in. After the recent basis weakens, attention can be paid to basis long or cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities, with hot - rolled coil being the best choice [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Participate in pulse - type rebounds. Arbitrage: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is in the range of [140, 180]. Cash - and - carry: Opportunities for basis long or cash - and - carry arbitrage of hot - rolled coil [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory accumulation amplitude is slowing down. During the Two Sessions, normal environmental protection restrictions were in place. The average daily pig iron production of 247 steel mills this week was 221.20 (- 6.39), and the profitability rate of steel mills was 41.13% (+ 3.03%). Although pig iron production decreased rapidly this week due to environmental protection restrictions during the Two Sessions, production resumed in the second half of the week, but the data did not reflect it [60]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mines have resumed production quickly. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal at ports remains at a high level, and the port trade quotes are firm. However, the willingness to accept high - priced Mongolian coal is still insufficient, and most enterprises are still observing the price trend of coking coal and coke. The overseas coking coal price in Australia is weakly stable, and the forward price is slightly stronger due to the tense international situation [60]. - **Coke Supply**: During the Two Sessions, normal environmental protection restrictions were in place for coking plants. This week, the average daily coke production was 110.9 (-), and the coking profit was - 3 (- 20). Affected by the increase in the price of chemical by - products, although the coke price adjustment was implemented and the raw coal price increased, the actual profit of coking plants was relatively good [60]. - **Inventory**: The downstream procurement sentiment has increased. The supply of coal mines in the production areas is sufficient. Although the downstream inventory is still sufficient, affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the market procurement sentiment has increased, and the inventory has shifted from upstream to downstream, which is beneficial to prices [60]. - **Basis/Spread**: After the first round of price cuts was implemented, the sharp rise in crude oil interrupted the price - cut cycle. After the first round of price cuts by steel mills, the warehouse - receipt cost is around 1680, and the trade warehouse - receipt remains around 1730 before the price cuts. The price of Mongolian raw coal has rebounded to around 1090, and the warehouse - receipt cost is around 1200 [60]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 41.13% (+ 3.03%), and the coking profit is - 3 (- 20) [60]. - **Summary**: Geopolitical conflicts continue to dominate the market trend. The high - level volatility of crude oil has also driven the strengthening of other commodities. The market is mainly concerned about the situation in Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is still in a state of de - facto closure. The storage and continuous production characteristics of crude oil are still the biggest risk points in the future. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the navigation situation in the strait. In the market, affected by the rise in crude oil prices, the downstream procurement sentiment has recovered, the coking coal and coke auction prices have mostly increased, and the coke price - cut cycle has temporarily stopped. There is no current plan to raise prices [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Temporarily observe. Arbitrage: Consider gradually establishing cash - and - carry positions. Risk concerns: Changes in coal mine production policies, changes in steel demand, and macro - level disturbances [60]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: The Reuters shipping data this period shows a week - on - week increase of 12.7 tons per day to 417 tons per day. Among them, the shipping volume from Australia increased by 21.5 tons per day, that from Brazil decreased by 2.4 tons per day, and that from non - mainstream mines decreased by 6.4 tons per day to 68 tons per day. In terms of arrivals, the total arrivals in China increased by 24.8 tons per day week - on - week, with arrivals from Australia increasing by 23.4 tons per day, arrivals from Brazil decreasing by 20.3 tons per day, and arrivals from non - mainstream sources increasing by 21.7 tons per day [112]. - **Demand**: This period, the pig iron production of steel mills decreased by 6.39 to 221.2 tons week - on - week, mainly due to the phased emission reduction control requirements during the Two Sessions. After the end of the restrictions, pig iron production is expected to continue to increase in mid - March. The average daily port clearance volume of 47 ports has increased significantly to 332.33 tons, and the port inventory has increased by 52.49 tons, remaining higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year. Affected by the low - inventory operation of steel mills, the in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years [112]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory has increased slightly by 52.49 tons to 17947.32 tons, remaining higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year [112]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills is at a low level [112]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral [112]. - **Summary**: There are rumors in the market about restrictions on the procurement of Newman powder, which has an impact on the market. Policy changes are frequent, and it is not recommended to chase highs or lows. Appropriate dips can be bought [112]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Neutral [112]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips. Arbitrage: Temporarily observe. Risk concerns: Trade frictions and macro - level policies [112].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For steel, cost support exists, and after the basis weakens, attention should be paid to long - position opportunities. The industry is expected to enter a stage of strong supply and demand after the Two Sessions, but high inventory may suppress price rebound elasticity. Derivatives market is affected by market sentiment from the energy - chemical sector. Unilateral short - term pulse rebound can be participated in, and long - basis or cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities for hot - rolled coils can be considered [2][3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the geopolitical conflict continues, mainly affecting market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both weak with high inventory, and prices face strong upward resistance. It is recommended to take a short - term long - position approach at low prices [3][5]. - For coking coal and coke, continue to focus on geopolitical changes. The spot market is affected by rising oil prices, with improved market sentiment. The futures market is also driven by geopolitical factors. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see on the single - side and consider establishing cash - and - carry positions in batches [5][6]. - For iron ore, recent market rumors have caused large price fluctuations. If there are restrictions on Newman powder and Jinbuba powder, there may be a supply gap in the domestic iron ore market. It is recommended to go long on dips [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On March 13, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3165 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase, HC2610 at 3302 yuan/ton with a 0.43% increase, etc. For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3142 yuan/ton with a 0.58% increase, HC2605 at 3295 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase, etc. [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spread between RB2605 and RB2610 was - 23 yuan/ton on March 13, and the spread between HC2605 and HC2610 was - 7 yuan/ton. The coil - to - rebar spread was 153 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.87, etc. [1] Spot Market - **Steel Prices**: On March 13, Shanghai rebar was 3260 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase, Tianjin rebar was 3200 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase, etc. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3280 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase, etc. [1] - **Other Prices**: Qingdao Port's Super Special Powder was 670 yuan/ton with a 9 - yuan increase, and Ganqimaodu's coking fine coal was 1175 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - **Basis**: On March 13, the basis of HC main contract was - 15 yuan/ton with a - 10 - yuan change, and the basis of RB main contract was 118 yuan/ton with an 8 - yuan change [1].