1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot market is closed during the holiday, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. The market's expectation for the post - holiday period is not ideal. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and conduct rolling operations for hot - rolled coil positive spreads. For large spot exposures, selling hedging or options can be used to reduce risks [2] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the supply - demand situation is weak. Policy and cost factors are favorable. It is recommended to hold an empty or light position during the long holiday due to many uncertainties [3] - For coking coal and coke, the market continues to weaken. It is recommended to cash in spot positions before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures market after the price rises [5] - For iron ore, the restocking is basically over, and the price will fluctuate before the holiday. It is recommended that long - term investors short at the pressure level [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The spot market is closed during the approaching holiday, and the futures price fluctuates weakly, indicating a not - so - optimistic market expectation for the post - holiday period. The black market is less affected by the cooling of the commodity market. Traders are not willing to take open positions for winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. Before the holiday, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and conduct rolling operations for hot - rolled coil positive spreads. For large spot exposures, selling hedging or options can be used to reduce risks [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The downstream terminal demand is seasonally weak, and the direct demand is weak and stable. The alloy factory's profit is under pressure, and the production and start - up rate have decreased compared with the same period last year. The medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. Policy and cost factors are favorable, such as the increase in manganese ore prices and electricity price disturbances. It is recommended to hold an empty or light position during the long holiday [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market trading is cold during the approaching holiday. The futures market of the black sector fluctuates weakly. The market is in the off - season, and the industrial data is weak. The downstream restocking is near the end. There is news about Indonesian production cuts, but the probability of substantial cuts is low, and it provides an opportunity for spot - futures positive spreads. It is recommended to cash in spot positions before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures market after the price rises [5] Iron Ore - The steel mill's restocking is basically over, and the restocking strength is not as strong as expected. The price will fluctuate before the holiday. After the holiday, the Australian weather may affect the supply rhythm, and the price impact is more likely to be a rebound followed by a better short - selling point. It is recommended that long - term investors short at the pressure level [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector currently has no prominent contradictions, with both valuation and driving factors lacking significant trading opportunities. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market is gradually entering a holiday state, while the futures prices are still fluctuating, indicating a less - than - optimistic market expectation for the future or the post - holiday period [7]. - For steel, it's advisable to wait and see in the short term. For hot - rolled coils, positive spreads can be rolled for operations. For coal and coke, it's recommended to cash in spot positions opportunistically before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when prices rise. For iron ore, it's suggested that long - term investors short at resistance levels [7][66][112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Influencing Factors - **Supply**: Bullish. Hot metal production has a slight fluctuation, with this week's output increasing by 0.6 to 228.56 wt. The daily consumption of scrap steel has declined. As the Spring Festival approaches, the EAF operating rate is steadily decreasing, but there is still room for production resumption after the festival [7]. - **Demand**: Bearish. Building material demand shows more obvious seasonality, with significantly reduced transactions, and the spot market is gradually closing for the holiday. Plate demand remains stable, and the demand for medium and heavy plates is relatively strong, related to downstream shipbuilding and wind power steel demand. Overall, the market is mainly driven by rigid demand, and speculative demand has almost stalled [7]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The social inventory of the five major steel products is between the levels of 2025. Seasonal inventory accumulation continues, with the amplitude and rhythm in line with the same - period levels. Building material - related varieties have an increased inventory accumulation amplitude, while the plate inventory accumulation rhythm is relatively neutral [7]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar has strengthened, and the return on cash - and - carry arbitrage has turned positive. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 103, with a week - on - week increase of 21; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 1, with a week - on - week increase of 17 [7]. - **Profit**: Bullish. The profitability of steel mills is moderately low, with actual production profits slightly higher than statistical profits. Rebar profits are slightly better than plate profits. The profitability rate of steel mills, as reported by Steelhome, is 39.39%, with no week - on - week change [7]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. The basis of hot - rolled coils is weaker than that of rebar, making it more suitable for rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage operations. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the relative valuation is neutral [7]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: Neutral. Commodity price fluctuations have increased. As the long holiday approaches, funds have turned cautious, and the speculative atmosphere has cooled down [7]. 3.1.2 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: Wait and see. The black metal sector currently has no prominent contradictions, and due to increasing seasonal factors, the market is showing typical seasonal weakening characteristics. It is necessary to pay attention to the post - holiday demand start - up situation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can be in a range - bound or wait - and - see state. For arbitrage, roll to widen the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. For cash - and - carry arbitrage, roll operations on hot - rolled coils [8]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke 3.2.1 Influencing Factors - **Demand**: Neutral. The steel market has entered the off - season. This week, the apparent demand for the five major steel products is 801.74 (+7.78), and the production is 823.17 (+3.58). The industry data is generally weak, with relatively stable supply, seasonal weakening of demand, and some inventory accumulation. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills this week is 228.58 (-0.12), and the steel mill profitability rate remains at 39.39% [66]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Neutral. Next week, coal mines will gradually start their holidays. Fenwei's coking coal production has increased, but production will gradually decline in the future. Mongolian coal port clearance has slowed down due to port storage capacity pressure. The offshore market for Australian coking coal is in a state of continued game - playing, with limited market liquidity and strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment [66]. - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. This week, the daily average coke production is 110.4 (+0.5), and the coking profit is - 55 (+11). After the first round of price increases was finally implemented, coke enterprise operations have increased [66]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. The winter stockpiling is almost over. This week, the market is still in the winter stockpiling cycle, and the upstream inventory is continuing to transfer to the downstream. After the first - round price increase of coke was implemented, coke enterprise operations increased, and the number of available days of steel mill inventory also increased rapidly. With only one week left before the holiday, upstream coal mines will also gradually start their holidays, and the stockpiling is basically over [66]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. After the first - round price increase of coke was implemented, there is no expectation of the next round. The cost of the first - round price increase warehouse receipts for wet - quenched and dry - quenched coke for the 05 contract is 1729/1756, and the port trade quotation is around 1728. The cost of Mongolian coal warehouse receipts is around 1130 [66]. - **Profit**: Neutral. The steel mill profitability rate is 39.39% (-1.30%), and the coking profit is - 55 (-11) [66]. 3.2.2 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: Bearish. The bullish sentiment in the commodity market has gradually faded, and the black metal market has weakened in a volatile manner. Fundamentally, the market has entered the off - season, with overall weak industrial data. It is recommended to cash in spot positions opportunistically before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when prices rise [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should cash in spot positions opportunistically and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when prices rise. For arbitrage, temporarily wait and see [66]. 3.3 Iron Ore 3.3.1 Influencing Factors - **Supply**: Neutral. This period's Reuters shipping data shows a week - on - week increase of 22.2 tons per day to 440 tons per day, with Australia's shipping increasing by 19.5 tons per day, Brazil's by 6.2 tons per day, and non - mainstream mines' shipping decreasing by 3.4 tons per day to 85.5 tons per day. The total arrival volume in China has decreased by 21.2 tons per day week - on - week, with Australia's arrival increasing by 7.6 tons per day, Brazil's decreasing by 8.9 tons per day, and non - mainstream arrivals decreasing by 19.9 tons per day [112]. - **Demand**: Neutral. This period's steel mill hot metal production has slightly increased to 228.58 tons (+0.6). The steel mill profitability rate remains stable at 39.39%. According to the maintenance plan, hot metal production will continue to increase significantly in February. The daily average port ore removal volume has increased significantly by 9.88 tons to 357.58 tons, but the port inventory has increased by 156.42 tons, remaining higher than the same period last year and continuously reaching new highs for the year. Affected by the steel mills' low - inventory operation strategy, the in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years [112]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. The daily average ore removal volume of 47 ports has increased significantly by 9.88 tons to 357.58 tons, at a relatively high seasonal level. However, due to the high arrival volume, the port inventory has increased again by 156.42 tons, remaining higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year [112]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mill profits are at a low level [112]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. The short - term valuation is moderate. As the holiday approaches, steel mill stockpiling is basically over, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range before the holiday. After the holiday, attention should be paid to whether Australian weather will affect the supply rhythm [112]. 3.3.2 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: Neutral. In the long - term, the upward pressure on iron ore is obvious [112]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should short at resistance levels in the long - term. For arbitrage, temporarily wait and see [112].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of seasonal contraction in trading volume, with prices remaining stable and the market gradually entering a dormant state. It is advisable to approach it with a unilateral oscillatory mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions, allowing for rolling operations in hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spreads [2]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate with market sentiment. In the short term, the market is sentiment-driven, and prices are expected to oscillate [3]. - The suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners has led to a significant increase in coal-related assets. For coking coal and coke, it is recommended to seize the opportunity of the rising market to establish spot-futures positive spread positions [6]. - The long-term pressure on iron ore inventory remains significant. It is suggested that medium- and long-term investors enter short positions at resistance levels [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Spot prices are stable, trading volume continues to decline, and the market is gradually entering a dormant state. Due to seasonal factors, supply and demand are both weak. Steel mills have profit margins and the intention to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. Traders are not very willing to take open positions for winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. The strategy is to view it with a unilateral oscillatory mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions, allowing for rolling operations in hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spreads [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both weak. In the short term, the market is sentiment-driven, and prices are expected to oscillate. Macroscopically, domestic macro policies are being introduced at an accelerated pace, and industrial policies are expected to have an impact on supply and cost support [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners has led to a significant increase in coal-related assets. The coke market is running stably, and coking coal auctions show mixed results. The market has entered the off-season, and industrial data is generally weak. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of the rising market to establish spot-futures positive spread positions [6]. Iron Ore - The long-term pressure on iron ore inventory remains significant. Steel mills' iron ore restocking is nearly complete, and after the positive effects of restocking are fully digested, the pressure from port inventory will still be the root cause of iron ore pressure. It is suggested that medium- and long-term investors enter short positions at resistance levels [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The steel market is in a slow season with limited demand support. Steel prices are expected to move sideways, and hot-rolled coil basis trading and futures-cash arbitrage can be considered. [2] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to rebound due to improved market sentiment, but the fundamentals remain under pressure in the medium term. [3] - The coking coal and coke market is affected by the off-season and limited upward and downward drivers. After the first round of coke price increase, pay attention to selling opportunities on rallies. [5] - Iron ore prices are supported in the short term by the "restart + restocking" expectation but face long-term pressure from port inventories. [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On January 29, the closing prices of far-month contracts RB2610, HC2610, 12609, J2609, and JM2609 were 3203.00, 3330.00, 779.00, 1791.50, and 1242.50 yuan/ton respectively, with varying increases. [1] - The closing prices of near-month contracts RB2605, HC2605, 12605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3157.00, 3308.00, 798.50, 1723.00, and 1165.00 yuan/ton respectively, also with varying increases. [1] - The cross-month spreads of RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, 12605 - 2609, J2605 - 2609, and JM2605 - 2609 were -46.00, -22.00, 19.50, -68.50, and -77.50 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - The spreads/ratios/profits such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, rebar disk profit, and coking disk profit had specific values and changes on January 29. [1] Spot Market - On January 29, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3280.00, 3190.00, 3410.00, 2950.00, and 104.15 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes. [1] - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - product spread, and Rizhao Port PB had specific values and changes on January 29. [1] - The spot prices of Qingdao Port super - special powder, etc. also had corresponding values and changes on January 29. [1] - The basis values of HC, RB, etc. and their changes on January 29 were provided. [1] Steel - The steel market is in a slow season with limited demand support. Steel prices are expected to move sideways. The actual resumption of production by steel mills may be slow. Traders are less willing to do open - position winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. Hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for futures - cash positions, and hot - rolled coil futures - cash arbitrage can be rolled. [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - With the warming of market sentiment, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are oscillating upwards. The demand is weak in the short term, and the supply is high in the medium term. The domestic macro - policy is favorable. In general, the short - term market sentiment dominates, and the prices may be strongly oscillating. [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price increase has finally landed, but the market is not optimistic about the future. The downstream procurement is cautious. The coking coal online auction has many unsuccessful bids. The futures market is affected by the relaxation of the "three red lines" for real - estate enterprises and the stock market rebound. The steel market is in a slow season, and the industry data is weak. The coal mine supply continues to recover, and the downstream has pre - Spring Festival restocking. The short - term first - round price increase and news drive the disk rebound, but pay attention to selling opportunities on rallies. [5] Iron Ore - The steel mill's in - plant inventory is low. The expectation of steel mill restart and pre - Spring Festival restocking supports the iron ore price in the short term. After the restocking expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will be the source of pressure. The short - term pattern is oscillating strongly, but the medium - long - term pressure is obvious. [6]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Group 2: Report's Core View - Steel: The unilateral steel market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to basis opportunities. With the seasonal factor becoming more prominent, the spot volume and price are weakening marginally. The market can be treated with an oscillating mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions. The hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spread can still be rolled for operation [2]. - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are mainly oscillating. The supply is high while the demand is weak. Although there are policy benefits and cost support, the market is likely to fall under pressure in the future [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot market of coking coal and coke is weakening, and the futures market is also oscillating downward. The market is in the off-season, with weak supply and demand, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to cash in the spot at a high price before the Spring Festival and wait for the opportunity to short on the futures market [5]. - Iron Ore: In the short term, iron ore is in an oscillatingly strong pattern due to the "resumption of production + replenishment" support. In the long term, the pressure from port inventory is significant. It is suggested that medium - and long - term investors short at the pressure level [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Spot prices of steel decreased slightly on Tuesday, and trading volume continued to cool down. The futures prices moved in a narrow range. The black sector is in an interval oscillation. Due to seasonal factors, the spot volume and price are weakening. The demand for building materials is decreasing seasonally. Steel mills still have the intention to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. Traders are not willing to do open - position winter storage and are more suitable to participate through the basis. The hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for spot - futures positions, and the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread can be rolled for operation [2]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Recently, the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have been oscillating. The supply side has occasional fluctuations. The demand side is poor as steel prices are under pressure, steel mill profits are not good, and the iron - water output adjustment pressure is large. The overall demand is difficult to improve in the short term. The alloy plants' profits are not good, but the production is still high. The medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. There are policy benefits and cost support, but the market is likely to fall under pressure [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the first round of coke price increase was shelved. Downstream procurement is cautious, and the market trading sentiment has cooled down. The online auction has more unsuccessful bids. The coking coal price index has decreased. The Mongolian coal market is still cold. On the futures side, with the high - level correction of silver, the market sentiment has cooled down. The market is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand, and the inventory is accumulating. The coal mine supply is recovering, but the downstream procurement has slowed down. It is recommended to cash in the spot at a high price before the Spring Festival and wait for the opportunity to short on the futures market [5]. Iron Ore - The steel mill's in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The expectation of accelerated resumption of production in February and the pre - Spring Festival replenishment have a great impact on the transfer of iron ore inventory, which is one of the reasons for the relatively high iron ore price in the short term. After the replenishment expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will still be the root cause of the iron ore pressure. In the short term, iron ore is in an oscillatingly strong pattern, but in the long term, the upward pressure is obvious. It is suggested that medium - and long - term investors short at the pressure level [6].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The black metal market is in a state of narrow - range operation, with each sub - sector showing different trends. The steel market continues to be volatile, with limited upside and downside drivers; the coking coal and coke market is in an oscillating and weak state, and the iron ore market is in a short - term oscillating and strong pattern but faces long - term pressure from inventory [5][66][116] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: Iron and steel production shows a slight increase, with iron water production fluctuating within a narrow range and scrap steel daily consumption increasing slightly. It is expected that after January, iron water production will rise, and the electric furnace will gradually reduce production during the Spring Festival, balancing the total output of crude steel [5] - **Demand**: Building materials demand shows obvious seasonality, and the demand for plates is weak in both supply and demand. The spot market lacks fluidity, and the overall demand support for the market is limited [5] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products has shifted from destocking to seasonal inventory accumulation, with slow inventory reduction for plates and high - inventory pressure for hot - rolled coils [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coils remains unchanged, and the basis of rebar decreases slightly [5] - **Profit**: The profitability of steel mills is at a relatively low - to - medium level, and the actual production profit is slightly higher than the statistical profit [5] - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is weaker than that of rebar, making it more suitable for rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage. The relative valuation is neutral [5] - **Macro and Risk Preference**: Commodity fluctuations increase, and there are structural opportunities. Attention should be paid to capital flow and rotation [5] - **Investment View**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The black market is in a state of range - bound operation. It is advisable to use an oscillating mindset for single - side trading, and continue rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider range or short - term long strategies; for arbitrage, focus on widening the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar; for cash - and - carry, continue rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils [6] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The steel market enters the off - season, with overall weak industrial data. The demand for coking coal and coke weakens seasonally, and inventory accumulates. However, there is no excessive spot selling pressure, and the market mainly trades at a reasonable valuation [66] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mine production continues to increase but will peak before the Spring Festival. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains at a high level, but market transactions are weak. The price of Australian coal continues to rise, and there is a continuous internal - external price inversion [66] - **Coke Supply**: Coke production remains stable, and the first round of price increases is temporarily postponed, with stable coking profits [66] - **Inventory**: Downstream inventory replenishment slows down, and the market sentiment weakens after the first - round price increase of coke is postponed [66] - **Basis/Spread**: The first - round price increase of coke is temporarily postponed, and the cost of the first - round price increase for the 05 - contract wet - quenched/dry - quenched coke is 1729/1756. The cost of Mongolian coal warehouse receipts drops to around 1120 [66] - **Profit**: The profitability of steel mills increases slightly, while coking profits remain at a loss [66] - **Summary**: The coking coal and coke market is oscillating and weak. The first - round price increase of coke still has a chance to be implemented, but the upward driving force is insufficient. It is recommended to cash out spot stocks at high prices before the festival and wait for short - selling opportunities in the futures market after the price rises [66] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, cash out spot stocks at appropriate times and wait for short - selling opportunities in the futures market after the price rises; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [66] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The shipping volume rebounds, and the arrival volume in China also shows a mixed trend. Australian and non - mainstream ore arrivals increase, while Brazilian ore arrivals decrease [116] - **Demand**: Steel mill iron water production is basically stable, and it is expected to increase significantly in February. The daily port dredging volume decreases, and port inventory continues to be higher than the same period last year [116] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increases again, reaching a new high for the year, which is a long - term pressure factor for the iron ore market [116] - **Profit**: Steel mill profits are at a low level [116] - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is relatively high [116] - **Summary**: In the short term, the iron ore market is in an oscillating and strong pattern due to factors such as inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival and expected production resumption in February. However, in the long term, port inventory pressure will be the main factor restricting the price [116] - **Investment View**: Neutral [116] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - term long positions and short positions at pressure levels for long - term trading; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [116]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report Core Views - The overall black market is in a range - bound oscillation, with no strong expectations for market drivers and valuations [3]. - The fundamentals of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon continue to be under pressure, and there is a high risk of a subsequent decline [4]. - The coking coal and coke sector oscillates, with insufficient spot - driven factors, and it is advisable to cash in on the spot and short on the futures after a rally [5]. - Iron ore is in a short - term oscillatingly strong pattern, but there is obvious upward pressure in the medium and long term [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The spot market price of steel is stable, and the trading enthusiasm is average. The futures market is in a range - bound oscillation. Seasonal factors lead to a weakening of demand, and the support for the market is limited [3]. - Steel mills have a willingness to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. The willingness of traders to conduct open - position winter storage is not strong, and it is more suitable to participate through basis trading [3]. - The certainty of the increase in hot metal production increases, and there is support at low prices. The basis of hot - rolled coils is favorable for spot - futures arbitrage, and the spot - futures positive arbitrage of hot - rolled coils can still be rolled [3][7]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have rebounded with market sentiment, and there are occasional supply - side disturbance rumors [4]. - The demand is poor, and the overall demand is difficult to improve in the short term. The supply is high, and the medium - term over - supply pressure remains [4]. - Although there are policy benefits and cost support, the expectations are prone to fluctuations, and there is a high risk of a subsequent decline. Industrial customers are advised to hedge at high prices [4][7]. Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price increase has been shelved, the downstream procurement has become more cautious, and the market trading sentiment has cooled down. The price of coking coal has a slight increase, but the market transaction is still weak [5]. - The futures of coking coal and coke oscillate weakly. In the off - season, the industrial data is weak, and there is neither excessive spot pressure nor strong upward or downward drivers [5]. - The supply of coal mines has continued to recover, and the inventory pressure is not large. However, after the first - round coke price increase was shelved, the market sentiment has weakened. It is advisable to cash in on the spot at high prices before the Spring Festival and wait for short - selling opportunities on the futures after a rally [5][7]. Iron Ore - The in - plant inventory of steel mills is at a relatively low level in recent years. The expectation of steel mill复产 in February and pre - Spring Festival restocking support the short - term high price of iron ore [6][9]. - After the restocking expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will become the root cause of the weakening of iron ore prices. It is recommended that short - term investors consider going long at low prices, and long - term investors short at pressure levels [6][9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: Spot demand weakens seasonally, focus on basis opportunities. Steel prices are expected to have support at low levels, and hot-rolled coil futures-spot positive arbitrage can be rolled. Trade with a unilateral range-bound mindset, or use option strategies to assist spot trading [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Prices rebound with market sentiment. Supply is high and demand is weak. Although there are policy benefits and cost support, the risk of a decline is high. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices [2][4][7] - Coking Coal and Coke: The sector fluctuates. Spot prices are weak, and the market trades for a reasonable valuation. Wait for a rally to short on the futures market, and cash in on the spot market when appropriate [5][7] - Iron Ore: Prices are mainly volatile. The accident at the steel mill may affect iron ore demand, and there is pressure on the upside. Wait for a rebound to enter short positions [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On January 22, for far-month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3169.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 8.00 yuan (0.25%); HC2610 closed at 3302.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 5.00 yuan (0.15%); J2609 closed at 1758.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 10.00 yuan (0.57%); JM2609 closed at 1203.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 9.00 yuan (0.75%). For near-month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3124.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 11.00 yuan (0.35%); HC2605 closed at 3287.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 8.00 yuan (0.24%); J2605 closed at 1688.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 14.00 yuan (0.84%); JM2605 closed at 1131.50 yuan/ton with a gain of 12.00 yuan (1.07%) [1] - **Inter-month Spreads**: On January 22, RB2605 - 2610 was -45.00 yuan/ton with no change; HC2605 - 2610 was -15.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 4.00 yuan; 12605 - 2609 was 17.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 0.50 yuan; J2605 - 2609 was -70.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 5.00 yuan; JM2605 - 2609 was -71.50 yuan/ton with a gain of 2.50 yuan [1] - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: On January 22, the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread was 163.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 6.00 yuan; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 3.97 with no change; the coal - coke ratio was 1.49 with no change; the rebar paper profit was -75.48 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.63 yuan; the coking paper profit was 183.11 yuan/ton with a gain of 1.18 yuan [1] Spot Market - **Steel Products**: On January 22, Shanghai rebar was 3260.00 yuan/ton with no change; Tianjin rebar was 3140.00 yuan/ton with no change; Guangzhou rebar was 3420.00 yuan/ton with no change; Tangshan billet was 2930.00 yuan/ton with no change; the Platts Index was 103.45 with a gain of 0.25. Shanghai hot-rolled coil was 3290.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 40.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot-rolled coil was 3340.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 40.00 yuan; Guangzhou hot-rolled coil was 3260.00 yuan/ton with no change; the billet - steel product spread was 330.00 yuan/ton with no change; Rizhao Port PB was 794.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 1.00 yuan [1] - **Other Products**: On January 22, Qingdao Port Super Special Powder was 668.00 yuan/ton with no change; Ganqimaodu Coking Coal was 1235.00 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Class Coke (ex - warehouse) was 1430.00 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port PB was 794.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 1.00 yuan [1] - **Basis**: On January 22, the HC main contract basis was 3.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 39.00 yuan; the RB main contract basis was 136.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 7.00 yuan; the main contract basis was 20.00 yuan/ton with no change; the J main contract basis was -115.37 yuan/ton with a loss of 4.50 yuan; the JM main contract basis was 133.50 yuan/ton with a loss of 2.50 yuan [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The spot market for steel products has cooled down, and attention should be paid to basis trading opportunities. The futures prices were weak on Tuesday, and the spot trading volume decreased. The impact of weather on the demand for building materials is becoming more obvious, and the seasonal drop in building material demand is expected to continue. The support from demand for the market is relatively limited. However, during the off - season around the Spring Festival, the price pressure is not large. At present, steel mills have profits and the willingness to resume production, while traders are not very willing to conduct open - position winter storage and prefer basis trading. The probability of an increase in hot metal production is rising, and there is support at low prices. The market has abundant funds but cautious confidence, and there are opportunities for rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage in hot - rolled coils [3]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have been oscillating recently. The supply side has occasional rumors of fluctuations. The demand side is weak as steel prices are under pressure, steel mill profits are poor, and the pressure to adjust hot metal production downward is high. The overall demand is difficult to improve in the short term. The supply side has high production despite poor profits of alloy plants, and the medium - term over - supply pressure remains. Although there are policy benefits and cost support, the market is likely to fall under pressure [3]. - The spot market for coking coal and coke has cooled down. The first round of coke price increase has been shelved. The market's purchasing willingness has weakened, and the auction failure rate has increased. The futures prices of coking coal and coke have accelerated their decline, breaking through important supports. The market is in the off - season, and the industrial data is weak. Although the steel apparent consumption improved last week, the market is unlikely to have unexpected performance. The coal mine supply continues to recover, and the downstream is in the pre - Spring Festival replenishment period. However, the market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract, and the futures price may gradually move towards the coking coal long - term contract cost pricing [5]. - Iron ore prices are mainly oscillating. The steel mill accident over the weekend may affect hot metal production for a long time. The iron ore valuation is currently moderately high. Under the influence of supply and demand, the port inventory of iron ore continues to rise, and the price is under pressure. The steel apparent consumption has slightly declined, and the overall iron element contradiction is still accumulating. There are opportunities to short after a rebound [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Changes**: On January 20, for far - month contracts, the closing prices of RB2610, HC2610, 12609, J2609, and JM2609 were 3159.00 yuan/ton, 3295.00 yuan/ton, 771.50 yuan/ton, 1748.50 yuan/ton, and 1203.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 38.00 yuan/ton, - 34.00 yuan/ton, - 8.00 yuan/ton, - 60.50 yuan/ton, and - 55.00 yuan/ton, and percentage changes of - 1.19%, - 1.02%, - 1.03%, - 3.34%, and - 4.37% respectively. For near - month contracts (main contracts), the closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, 12605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3111.00 yuan/ton, 3276.00 yuan/ton, 789.50 yuan/ton, 1673.50 yuan/ton, and 1124.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 37.00 yuan/ton, - 32.00 yuan/ton, - 8.00 yuan/ton, - 61.50 yuan/ton, and - 53.00 yuan/ton, and percentage changes of - 1.18%, - 0.97%, - 1.00%, - 3.54%, and - 4.50% respectively [1]. - **Spread and Ratio**: On January 20, the spread between HC2605 - 2610 was - 19.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 1.00 yuan/ton; the spread between RB2605 - 2610 was - 48.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00 yuan/ton. The spread between J2605 - 2609 was 18.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.50 yuan/ton; the spread between JM2605 - 2609 was - 79.50 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 165.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 6.00 yuan/ton; the rebar to iron ore ratio was 3.94, with a change of - 0.01; the coking coal to coke ratio was 1.49, with a change of 0.02; the rebar futures profit was - 86.18 yuan/ton, with a change of 2.18 yuan/ton; the coking futures profit was 178.58 yuan/ton, with a change of 19.67 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes**: On January 20, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3270.00 yuan/ton, 3140.00 yuan/ton, and 3440.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan/ton, - 20.00 yuan/ton, and - 10.00 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2930.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20.00 yuan/ton, and the Platts Index was 103.55, with a change of - 0.90. The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3250.00 yuan/ton, 3300.00 yuan/ton, and 3260.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan/ton, - 10.00 yuan/ton, and - 20.00 yuan/ton. The billet - to - finished product spread was 340.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 10.00 yuan/ton. The spot prices of Qingdao Port Super Special Fines, Ganqimao Du Coking Concentrate, and Qingdao Port PB were 677.00 yuan/ton, 1235.00 yuan/ton, and 793.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, and - 17.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Changes**: On January 20, the basis of HC main contract, RB main contract, 12605 main contract, J main contract, and JM main contract were - 26.00 yuan/ton, 159.00 yuan/ton, 20.00 yuan/ton, - 100.87 yuan/ton, and 141.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 13.00 yuan/ton, 19.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, - 47.50 yuan/ton, and 50.50 yuan/ton [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel products, use a range - bound trading strategy for single - side trading, conduct rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage in hot - rolled coils, or use option strategies as an auxiliary [7]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, industrial customers should conduct hedging when prices are high [7]. - For coking coal and coke, stop loss for previous long positions as the prices have broken through important supports [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided Core Views - Steel prices fluctuate narrowly with weak spot prices. There is no resonance rebound yet, so continue to wait and see on a single - side basis. For hot - rolled coils, conduct rolling operations on spot - futures arbitrage or use option strategies to assist spot procurement [2][6] - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remain under pressure with high supply and weak demand. There is a high risk of a decline in the future, and industrial customers should hedge at high prices [2][6] - The expectation of the first round of coke price increase is strengthening. It is advisable to buy on dips, but be cautious due to volatile emotions [4][6] - Iron ore prices have fallen from the peak. It is recommended to wait and see as the valuation is moderately high and there are inventory pressures [5][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Wednesday, futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and the spot market had weak follow - up increase momentum and light trading volume. There is abundant market liquidity, and the logic of commodity capital rotation has not been completely disproven. Although iron ore production is rising and there is downstream replenishment demand, the spot follow - up increase is insufficient, and there is no resonance rebound. Use a unilateral range - bound trading idea, conduct rolling operations on hot - rolled coil spot - futures arbitrage, or use option strategies to assist spot procurement [2][6] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - As market sentiment subsides, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are oscillating. Demand is poor as steel prices are under pressure, and the weekly apparent consumption has fallen to the lowest point of the year. In the off - season of terminal demand, demand is difficult to improve. Supply is still high despite poor alloy plant profits, and there is a large medium - term supply surplus pressure. Although there are policy benefits, the follow - up market is under pressure to fall, and industrial customers should hedge at high prices [2][6] Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of the first round of coke price increase is strengthening. The overall trading atmosphere of coking coal is strong. In the futures market, there is resonance in capital market sentiment and large fluctuations. In the off - season, industry data is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to downstream replenishment. It is advisable to buy on dips, but be cautious due to volatile emotions [4][6] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have fallen after reaching the previous pressure level due to the resonance decline of the commodity index and market rumors. The valuation is moderately high, and the port inventory is rising. It is not recommended to chase the long or short positions, so it is advisable to wait and see [5][9]