Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent significant decline in ferroalloy futures, particularly manganese silicon and silicon iron, is driven by a combination of high supply and weakening demand expectations from steel mills [1][2] - Analysts highlight that the previous price increases were primarily driven by "anti-involution" logic and expectations of reduced supply, supported by macroeconomic factors such as domestic policies and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Current market conditions show a concerning fundamental outlook, with steel prices under pressure, leading to expectations of reduced iron output and lower electric furnace operating rates [2][3] Group 2 - Manganese silicon inventory has been rising rapidly, with the latest data showing an increase to 198,900 tons, while silicon iron inventory remains stable [2] - Despite the increase in manganese silicon inventory, production has decreased to 208,800 tons, indicating potential pressure on inventory levels if demand does not improve [2] - The cost support for manganese and silicon iron remains strong, with manganese ore prices showing slight increases, suggesting limited downside potential for prices in the near future [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass investment view: Neutral [3] - Soda ash investment view: Bearish [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution logic has a tidal - like trading pattern, but the weak reality persists, and the pattern of oversupply continues. Glass demand has some resilience and may improve in the peak season, with stable supply, large inventory accumulation, and price under pressure. Soda ash has high supply, neutral demand, weakened cost support, large near - month inventory, and limited upside in price. It is recommended to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage [37]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bearish. Daily output of national float glass is 16020 tons, with industry start - up rate at 76.01% and capacity utilization at 80.08%, all remaining unchanged from the 11th. There is no cold - repair or ignition of production lines this week, and supply will likely remain stable next week [3]. - Demand: Bullish. The peak season is coming, and demand may improve marginally. This week's production and sales have strengthened [3]. - Inventory: Bullish. Enterprise inventory is 60.908 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 675000 heavy boxes (-1.10%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56%. The inventory days are 26 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuated [3]. - Valuation: Neutral. The current price and valuation are neutral [3]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic has a tidal - like trading pattern, but the weak reality remains, and the overall sentiment is not good [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Cash - and - carry arbitrage. Risk concerns: Daily melting volume [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish. This week's soda ash output is 745700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15400 tons (2.02%). Light soda ash output is 328000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11400 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 417700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4000 tons. Due to individual enterprises' shutdown for maintenance and equipment problems, supply has decreased. Recently, there are few device overhauls, and the overall supply shows an increasing trend [4]. - Demand: Neutral. Short - term direct demand is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is stable. However, the terminal demand is difficult to improve, and the negative feedback pressure on price still exists [4]. - Inventory: Neutral. The total manufacturer inventory is 1755600 tons, a decrease of 41900 tons (2.33%) compared with last Thursday. The inventory of light soda ash is 749500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13500 tons, and that of heavy soda ash is 1006100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28400 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory has increased by 356800 tons (25.51%). Recently, the overall inventory has been decreasing, and the inventory of individual enterprises has decreased due to accelerated shipments [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuated [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. The valuation is neutral [4]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic continues, but the overall impact is limited, and the pattern of high short - term supply is difficult to reverse [4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Cash - and - carry arbitrage. Risk concerns: Soda ash plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4]. Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes Glass - Price: This week, the price fluctuated. The main contract closed at 1216 (+36), and the Shahe spot price was 1084 (+12) [6]. Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price fluctuated. The main contract closed at 1318 (+28), and the Shahe spot price was 1216 (+19) [11]. Spread/Basis - Soda ash: The 01 - 05 spread and the basis fluctuated. - Glass: The 01 - 05 spread and the basis fluctuated [22]. Part Three: Supply - and - Demand Fundamental Data Glass Supply - Production is stable. The daily output of national float glass is 16020 tons, with industry start - up rate at 76.01% and capacity utilization at 80.08%, all remaining unchanged from the 11th. There is no cold - repair or ignition of production lines this week, and supply will likely remain stable next week. The production profit of glass fluctuates. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel is - 164.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.29 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas as fuel is 94.03 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.37 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke as fuel is 41.37 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.43 yuan/ton [25]. Glass Demand - The orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises have improved. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 10.5 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The completion data of the real - estate mid - and - back end is poor. From January to August, the housing construction area of real - estate development enterprises is 6431.09 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new construction area is 398.01 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%. The housing completion area is 276.94 million square meters, a decrease of 17.0%. The inventory is decreasing [30]. Soda Ash Supply - Supply is at a high level. This week's soda ash output is 745700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15400 tons (2.02%). Light soda ash output is 328000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11400 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 417700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4000 tons. Due to individual enterprises' shutdown for maintenance and equipment problems, supply has decreased. Recently, there are few device overhauls, and the overall supply shows an increasing trend. The profit of soda ash plants fluctuates. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process is - 36.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton joint - soda process is - 70.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 16 yuan/ton [33]. Soda Ash Demand - The overall demand is neutral. Short - term direct demand is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is stable. However, the terminal demand is not good, and the negative feedback pressure on price still exists. The inventory is decreasing [34].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the glass and soda ash industries is bearish [3][4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the glass and soda ash industries are poor, and prices are under pressure. The glass industry has increasing supply, potential demand improvement in the peak season, and high inventory. The soda ash industry has high supply, neutral demand, and weakened cost support [3][4] - The overall market sentiment is not good due to the "anti - involution" logic and weak reality. The trading strategy recommends a cash - and - carry arbitrage [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Glass**: Supply is slightly increasing with a daily output of 160200 tons (+0.38% compared to the 4th), an industry start - up rate of 76.01% (unchanged), and a capacity utilization rate of 80.08% (+0.3 percentage points). Demand may improve marginally in the peak season. Inventory decreased by 2.33% week - on - week to 61.583 million heavy cases. The investment view is bearish, and the trading strategy suggests a cash - and - carry arbitrage [3] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is at a high level with a weekly output of 761100 tons (+1.24% week - on - week). Demand is neutral with stable short - term direct demand but poor terminal demand. Inventory decreased by 1.35% week - on - week to 1.7975 million tons. The investment view is bearish, and the trading strategy recommends a cash - and - carry arbitrage [4] Part Two: Futures and Spot Market Review - **Glass**: The price fluctuated this week. The main contract closed at 1180 (-9), and the Shahe spot price was 1072 (+16). The basis fluctuated, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased [6][20] - **Soda Ash**: The price fluctuated this week. The main contract closed at 1290 (+25), and the Shahe spot price was 1197 (+5). The basis and the 01 - 05 spread both fluctuated [11][20] Part Three: Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Glass Supply**: Production increased steadily. The daily output was 160200 tons (+0.38% compared to the 4th). The start - up rate was 76.01% (unchanged), and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08% (+0.3 percentage points). The production profit fluctuated [23] - **Glass Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders were weak, and the real - estate completion data was poor. However, inventory decreased by 2.33% week - on - week to 61.583 million heavy cases [28] - **Soda Ash Supply**: Production reached a high level again, with a weekly output of 761100 tons (+1.24% week - on - week). The alkali plant profit fluctuated [31] - **Soda Ash Demand**: Demand was neutral. Short - term direct demand was stable, but terminal demand was poor. Inventory decreased by 1.35% week - on - week to 1.7975 million tons [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel market shows weak supply and demand. After the military parade, production will resume, but demand remains weak, suppressing prices. Steel futures valuation has been restored to a neutral range, and downstream buyers can consider selective hedging [2]. - The short - term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, with prices under pressure. Although the "anti - involution" policy provides long - term support, current supply is increasing, and demand may be weak, with high inventory and de - stocking pressure [2]. - Coking coal and coke prices are weak. Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is also under pressure. The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts for coke in September. However, due to factors such as the upcoming National Day and winter storage, and the "anti - involution" policy, the downward space may be limited [4]. - Iron ore prices are in a shock range. Although iron ore supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, the pre - National Day restocking demand provides some support. The 01 contract still has effective support at the bottom [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On September 4, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3167 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.03%); HC2605 closed at 3325 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan (0.27%); J2605 closed at 1677.5 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan (- 1.06%); JM2605 closed at 1149.5 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 1.29%). For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3117 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (- 0.06%); HC2601 closed at 3313 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan (0.24%); J2601 closed at 1581.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 1.37%); JM2601 closed at 1094.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 1.97%) [1]. - The cross - month spreads on September 4 were: RB2601 - 2605 was - 50 yuan/ton, HC2601 - 2605 was - 12 yuan/ton, J2601 - 2605 was - 96 yuan/ton, JM2601 - 2605 was - 55 yuan/ton [1]. - The spread/ratio/profit on September 4: the coil - to - rebar spread was 196 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.94, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.44, the rebar futures profit was - 37.48 yuan/ton, and the coking futures profit was 125.82 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - On September 4, the spot prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou rebar were 3210 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2960 yuan/ton, and the Platts Index was 105.1 [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coils were 3370 yuan/ton, 3420 yuan/ton, and 3360 yuan/ton respectively; the billet - to - product spread was 250 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 777 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot prices of Super Special Powder at Qingdao Port, etc. were 670 yuan/ton, 715 yuan/ton, etc.; the price of coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1180 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1530 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 777 yuan/ton [1]. - On September 4, the basis of HC, RB, J, and JM main contracts were 57 yuan/ton, 93 yuan/ton, 98.66 yuan/ton, and 115.5 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, adopt a wait - and - see approach on a single - side basis and use futures or options for hedging at appropriate times [2][6]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, short on rallies [6]. - For coking coal and coke, gradually take profit on previous short positions and consider batch - wise layout of medium - term long positions [6].

Group 1: Report Summary - The glass and soda ash market continued to be weak on September 3rd [2]. - The market sentiment has been volatile recently, and the anti - involution logic has become long - term. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the industry still faces oversupply, which hinders price increases, especially for the 09 contract as its delivery is approaching [2]. - Glass supply remains stable, but demand is weak. With the "Golden September and Silver October" approaching, the terminal performance is unlikely to improve, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. Soda ash supply will return to a high level. Short - term direct demand is okay, but due to the increase in the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass, inventory pressure is high and prices are under pressure [2]. Group 2: Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage and short on rallies [2] Group 3: Market Data Glass - Futures prices on September 4th: 1 - month contract is 1135, 5 - month contract is 1235, 9 - month contract is 940. Price changes are 1 (0.09%), 2 (0.16%), - 15 (- 1.57%) respectively. Spreads: 1 - 5 month is - 100, 5 - 9 month is 295, 9 - 1 month is - 195. Spot prices: 1200, 1140, 1240 in different regions. The basis of the main contract is 5, etc. [1] Soda Ash - Futures prices on September 4th: 1 - month contract is 1276, 5 - month contract is 1357, 9 - month contract is 1158. Price changes are 9 (0.71%), 10 (0.74%), 6 (0.52%) respectively. Spreads: 1 - 5 month is - 81, 5 - 9 month is 199, 9 - 1 month is - 118. Spot prices: 1000, 1300, 1250 in different regions. The basis of the main contract is - 276, etc. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July has narrowed for two consecutive months, with the profits of high - tech manufacturing showing significant year - on - year growth. The real estate market has policies to stimulate growth, and the "AI + Action Opinion" has been issued. Overseas, the US Q2 GDP has been revised upwards. The market volume has reached a high level, and leveraged funds are still flowing in. The mid - cap stocks are stronger than large - cap stocks, which are stronger than small and micro - cap stocks [3]. - During the gap - up rise on Monday this week, the basis quickly declined, indicating weak sentiment on the futures side. IH and IF are still in a state of slight premium, while the annualized discounts of IC and IM have returned to around 8% and 11%, respectively. The term structure has sunk at the near end, and the hedging cost - effectiveness of far - month contracts has increased. The cost - effectiveness of spot - futures arbitrage for near - month contracts has significantly decreased [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - **Basis Changes**: For IF contracts, the basis of IF2509 decreased from 16.00 to 9.44, a change of - 6.56; for IH contracts, IH2509's basis decreased from 13.39 to 3.53, a change of - 9.86; for IC contracts, IC2509's basis decreased from - 12.45 to - 47.14, a change of - 34.69; for IM contracts, IM2509's basis decreased from - 14.34 to - 72.08, a change of - 57.74 [1]. - **Index - enhancing Annualized Returns**: The index - enhancing annualized returns of IC and IM contracts are relatively high, such as 12.1% for IC2509 and 16.7% for IM2509 [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest Changes**: This week, the average daily trading volume of IH was 77,971 lots, a 17.1% increase from the previous week, and the open interest was 108,028 lots, a 4.8% decrease. The average daily trading volume of IF was 177,610 lots, a 36.3% increase, and the open interest was 293,331 lots, a 5.9% increase. The average daily trading volume of IC was 160,370 lots, a 32.9% increase, and the open interest was 248,432 lots, a 6.3% increase. The average daily trading volume of IM was 320,181 lots, a 14.6% increase, and the open interest was 388,014 lots, a 0.8% decrease [4]. - **Basis after Considering Dividends**: For example, for the IF2509 contract, the basis after considering dividends is 11.57, with an expected total dividend of 2.13 points and an annualized premium - discount rate of 4.47% [5]. 2. Hedging Profits and Losses - **IF Contracts**: The hedging profit of IF2509 this week was 6.56, compared with - 8.96 last week; for IF2512, it was 4.96 this week compared with - 10.76 last week [11]. - **IH Contracts**: The hedging profit of IH2509 this week was 9.86, compared with 0.14 last week; for IH2512, it was 12.06 this week compared with 0.34 last week [11]. - **IC Contracts**: The hedging profit of IC2509 this week was 34.69, compared with - 25.12 last week; for IC2512, it was 68.09 this week compared with - 40.12 last week [11]. - **IM Contracts**: The hedging profit of IM2509 this week was 57.74, compared with - 16.96 last week; for IM2512, it was 91.34 this week compared with - 24.56 last week [11].

Group 1: Market Information - SF主力合约收盘价5680，日变动38，周变动 -200，成交量200580，日变化53577，持仓量227550，日变化 -2948；SM主力合约收盘价5898，日变动66，周变动 -128，成交量227280，日变化42416，持仓量300427，日变化 -2245 [4] - 72%FeSi内蒙现货价格5370，日变动0，周变动 -180；72%FeSi宁夏现货价格5380，日变动0，周变动 -220等；硅锰6517内蒙现货价格5750，日变动0，周变动 -70；硅锰6517宁夏现货价格5620，日变动70，周变动 -230等 [4] - 硅铁内蒙 - 主力基差 -310，日变动 -38，周变动20；锰硅内蒙 - 主力基差 -148，日变动 -66，周变动58等；SF - SM价差 -218，日变动 -28，周变动 -72 [4] - 锰矿（天津）澳块当日40.5，日变动0，周变动 -0.2；南非半碳酸当日34，日变动 -0.5，周变动 -0.8等；兰炭小料陕西当日650，日变动20，周变动20；宁夏当日685，日变动0，周变动0等 [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - 8月25日，铁合金期货价格小幅上涨，硅铁主力合约收盘5680，上涨0.67%，持仓减少2948手；锰硅主力合约收盘5898，上涨1.13%，持仓减少2245手 [6] - 硅铁25日现货价格稳中偏弱，部分区域现货上涨50元/吨；供应端上周产量继续小幅增加，但增幅放缓；需求端样本钢材产量维持高位，对原料需求有支撑；期货价格临近部分产区成本，高升水风险大幅释放，近期底部震荡为主 [6] - 锰硅25日锰矿现货稳中偏弱，天津港半碳酸下跌0.5元/吨度，锰硅现货稳中偏强，部分区域现货上涨70元/吨；供应端上周产量增幅放缓；需求端螺纹样本表需小幅回升，未形成下行趋势；当前价格下高升水风险大幅释放，预计底部震荡为主 [6] Group 3: Trading Strategies - 单边：期货价格临近部分产区成本，高升水风险大幅释放，近期底部震荡为主 [7] - 套利：期现正套逐步止盈 [7] - 期权：逢高卖出跨式期权组合 [7] Group 4: Important Information - Mysteel煤焦：邢台市场焦炭价格计划提涨，捣固湿熄焦上调50元/吨、捣固干熄焦上调55元/吨，调整后捣固准一干熄报价1675元/吨，出厂价现金含税，自8月26日0时起执行 [8] - 上海6部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》，明确进一步调减住房限购政策，符合条件居民家庭在外环外购房不限套数，成年单身人士按居民家庭执行住房限购政策 [8] Group 5: Cost and Profit - 硅铁青海生产成本5457元/吨，利润 -157元/吨；甘肃生产成本5609元/吨，利润 -309元/吨 [16] - 硅锰内蒙生产成本5831元/吨，利润 -81元/吨；宁夏生产成本5939元/吨，利润 -339元/吨等 [21]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Core View - Fed's July meeting minutes show increasing internal divergence and no hint of a September rate cut, while the unexpectedly high US manufacturing PMI in August may change market expectations for a September rate cut [2] - Domestic policy intensity has marginally converged recently, and the main driving forces for the index are the "93 consensus" and institutional clustering. A - shares are not affected by the continuous decline of Hong Kong and US stocks due to the support of mainland margin - trading funds. The margin balance has increased significantly, and the total A - share trading volume has soared. The Sci - tech Innovation 50 index was the strongest this week, with a gain of over 13%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose above 3800 points [2] - The rise of the index this week has further pushed up the basis of various varieties. The annualized discounts of IC and IM have converged to 5.5% and 6.7%, and the term structure near - end and inter - period spreads have increased. There is a large profit space for cash - and - carry arbitrage in IH and IF September contracts, and the annualized hedging cost of near - month contracts of IC and IM is only about 2%, which may lead to an increase in the scale of neutral strategies [2] - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen, remain flat, weaken, and weaken respectively next week [2] Summary by Related Contents Market Background - The Fed's internal divergence is increasing, and it is facing a trade - off between inflation and employment risks. The unexpectedly high US manufacturing PMI in August may affect the expected September rate cut [2] - Domestic policy intensity has marginally converged, and the main driving forces for the index are the "93 consensus" and institutional clustering. Geopolitical situation is calm, and A - shares are supported by mainland margin - trading funds [2] Market Performance - The margin balance has increased significantly, with a net purchase of over 80 billion this week. The total A - share trading volume is about 2.5 trillion per day. The Sci - tech Innovation 50 index was the strongest this week, with a gain of over 13%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose above 3800 points [2] Basis and Spread - The rise of the index has further pushed up the basis of various varieties. The annualized discounts of IC and IM have converged to 5.5% and 6.7%, and the term structure near - end and inter - period spreads have increased [2] - The September contracts of IH and IF have an annualized premium of over 6% and 7% respectively, with a large profit space for cash - and - carry arbitrage. The annualized hedging cost of near - month contracts of IC and IM is only about 2% [2] Forecast - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen, remain flat, weaken, and weaken respectively next week [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - On August 20, the prices of glass and soda ash declined. The recent market sentiment is volatile, and the anti - involution logic has become long - term. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the industry is still facing oversupply, which hinders price increases. The 09 contract is approaching delivery, with the main contract shifting, resulting in a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength in prices [2]. - Glass supply remains stable, but demand is weak. After price drops, speculative demand fades, and inventory accumulates. Recently, there have been many supply disruptions for soda ash, but the supply has returned to a high level. Due to the production cut of photovoltaic glass, the direct demand has weakened, and the overall oversupply pressure is prominent, making it difficult for prices to rise [2]. - Industrial customers can focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price Information - **Futures prices and changes**: For glass and soda ash futures contracts on August 21, the prices of 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts all decreased. For example, the 1 - month contract price dropped from 1196 to 1162 (a decrease of 34, or 2.84%), the 5 - month contract price dropped from 1291 to 1255 (a decrease of 36, or 2.79%), and the 9 - month contract price dropped from 1020 to 997 (a decrease of 23, or 2.25%) [1]. - **Spread information**: The spreads between different contract months also changed. For example, the spread between the 1 - month and 5 - month contracts decreased from - 80 to - 93, and the spread between the 5 - month and 9 - month contracts decreased from 271 to 258 [1]. Spot Price Information - **Spot prices**: The spot prices of glass and soda ash vary by region. For example, in the East China region, the spot price of glass is 1150, and in the northwest region, it is 1050 [1]. - **Basis information**: The basis of the main contracts also shows differences. For example, the basis of the main contract in the East China region is 28 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 18, the prices of glass and soda ash declined [2] - Recently, market sentiment has been volatile. Macro - policies are mostly positive, and the anti - involution logic is long - term, with strong expectations. However, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and the industry is still facing oversupply. So, the upward price space is limited. Especially with the approaching delivery of the 09 contract and the shift of the main contract, prices are weaker in the near term and stronger in the long term [2] - Glass supply is stable, but demand is weak. After the price decline, speculative demand disappeared, and inventory accumulated. Recently, there are strong expectations of supply disturbances for soda ash, but fundamentally, soda ash supply has returned to a high level. Due to the production cut of photovoltaic glass, direct demand has weakened, and the overall oversupply pressure is prominent, so prices are also difficult to rise. Industrial customers can focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass and Soda Ash Futures Data (August 19, 2025) - **Soda Ash Futures Contracts** - Closing prices for January, May, and September contracts are 1212, 1308, and 1030 respectively; for fine soda ash, they are 1386, 1442, and 1272. The price changes are 1, - 1, - 16 for soda ash and - 9, - 8, - 21 for fine soda ash. The change rates are 0.08%, - 0.08%, - 1.53% for soda ash and - 0.65%, - 0.55%, - 1.62% for fine soda ash [1] - For spreads, the closing spreads of 5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1 for soda ash are - 96, 278, - 182; for fine soda ash, they are - 56, 170, - 114. The spread changes are 15, - 17, - 1 for soda ash and 13, - 12 for fine soda ash [1] - **Spot Prices** - Spot prices for soda ash in different regions are 1190, 1150, 1230, 1050; for fine soda ash in different regions are 1350, 1250. The basis for the main contracts are - 62, - 22, 18, - 336, - 36, - 136 [1]