1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for Treasury bonds is "oscillation" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contradiction in the bond market is between weak fundamentals and strong risk appetite. Fundamentals are favorable for the bond market, but economic data can no longer drive the bond market to strengthen. The stock market has an obvious impact on the bond market, but it is difficult to predict overseas factors and short - term stock market trends. Overall, the bond market is expected to oscillate. The news of the new fund fee regulations may disrupt the market, but it is unlikely to become the main trading theme [2][14][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From November 3rd to 9th, Treasury bond futures changed from rising to falling. On Monday, the stock market recovered, and Treasury bond futures were weakly oscillating. On Tuesday, the stock market fell, and the bond market was waiting for the central bank's bond - buying news. On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened higher due to the central bank's bond - buying news and lower overseas risk appetite but weakened as the domestic equity market rose. On Thursday, with a calm news background, the stock index was strong, and Treasury bond futures fell. On Friday, the morning session was strong, but the bond market weakened in the afternoon due to concerns about the new fund fee regulations. As of November 7th, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year Treasury bond futures contracts were 102.472, 105.920, 108.475, and 116.030 yuan respectively, down 0.072, 0.145, 0.190, and 0.610 yuan from the previous weekend [1][11] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - Next week, the bond market will still face the contradiction between weak fundamentals and strong risk appetite. Fundamentals are expected to be weak as the economic indicators in October may be poor due to limited growth - stabilizing policies in September - October and the intensifying Sino - US trade war. The impact of the equity market on the bond market is significant, but it is difficult to predict short - term stock market trends because of the domestic policy window period and the complexity of overseas factors. The news of the new fund fee regulations may disrupt the market, but it is unlikely to be the main trading theme. Overall, the bond market is expected to oscillate [14][15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 57 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 5139.97 billion yuan and a net financing of 2883.44 billion yuan. 32 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 916.07 billion yuan and a net financing of - 359.56 billion yuan. 430 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 5278.60 billion yuan and a net financing of 1509.90 billion yuan [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. As of November 7th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.43%, 1.59%, 1.81%, and 2.16% respectively, up 3.04, 2.38, 1.91, and 1.35 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread widened by 0.05bp to 41.35bp, while the 10Y - 5Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed by 0.47bp and 0.56bp respectively [25] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures changed from rising to falling. As of November 7th, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year Treasury bond futures contracts were 102.472, 105.920, 108.475, and 116.030 yuan respectively, down 0.072, 0.145, 0.190, and 0.610 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures this week were 26156, 53541, 72555, and 114770 lots respectively, down 15303, 18919, 11637, and 20960 lots from last week. The open interests were 83061, 177685, 289869, and 180046 lots respectively, with changes of + 2363, + 7744, + 12390, and - 3495 lots from last week [34][39] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - In the first half of the week, the market sentiment was strong, and the IRR of Treasury bond futures was relatively high. In the second half, the market adjusted. For stable returns, investors can choose contracts with high IRR for positive arbitrage strategies [42] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of November 7th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts (2512 - 2603) were + 0.044, + 0.040, + 0.250, and + 0.240 yuan respectively, down 0.002, 0.035, 0.010, and 0.050 yuan from the previous weekend. Next week, the bond market is expected to oscillate, and the short - sellers' motivation to roll over positions will increase, but it is not enough to significantly widen the inter - delivery spreads [46] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 15722 billion yuan this week. As of November 7th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.47%, 1.41%, 1.33%, and 1.42% respectively, with changes of - 2.46, - 4.21, + 0.60, and - 1.70 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.97 trillion yuan, 1.27 trillion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 89.59%, higher than last week [50][53][55] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield oscillated narrowly. As of November 7th, the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.5477 from the previous weekend, the 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.11%, the same as last week, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y Treasury bonds was inverted by 229.7 basis points. The US government is still shut down, and the Fed officials are cautious about inflation due to low data visibility [59] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices fell across the board, and agricultural product prices generally rose. As of November 7th, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3531.08, 6399.37, and 1584.31 points respectively, down 25.59, 86.53, and 6.51 points from the previous weekend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 18.23, 5.78, and 7.04 yuan/kg respectively, up 0.43, 0.09, and 0.00 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [62] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - For the short - term oscillating bond market, it is recommended to observe more and trade less. For the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to positive arbitrage and widening the basis due to the relatively high IRR of some contracts. For the yield curve strategy, if worried about the stock market's strength, stay on the sidelines. For the inter - delivery strategy, although the short - sellers' motivation to roll over positions will increase, the inter - delivery spreads are unlikely to widen significantly [2][17][18][19]