Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, expect the fundamental situation to gradually improve, and suggest paying attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and the 1 - 5 positive spread [4] - For urea, with weak demand and limited export support, the price is expected to move within a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [6] - For rubber, adopt a long - term bullish view, and stay on the sidelines in the short term as the short - term trend follows that of industrial products [11] - For PVC, given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - term upward movements [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, expect the BZN spread to repair in the long term. When the inventory reaches the inflection point of destocking, the styrene price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [16] - For polyethylene, expect the price to fluctuate upward in the long term, and the cost provides support [18] - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the price is affected by a large number of warehouse receipts, and there is no obvious short - term contradiction [19] - For PX, with high operating loads and expected inventory accumulation, there is currently no strong driving force, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [22] - For PTA, the pattern of inventory reduction continues, but the processing fee is suppressed. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [23] - For ethylene glycol, expect inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. Given the relatively high valuation, it is recommended to short at high prices, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [24] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The INE main crude oil futures closed up 5.80 yuan/barrel, a 1.18% increase, at 499.30 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 32.00 yuan/ton (1.14%) to 2831.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 63.00 yuan/ton (1.86%) to 3459.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Data**: The US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.29 million barrels to 415.36 million barrels (a 2.19% decrease), the SPR increased by 0.50 million barrels to 405.73 million barrels (a 0.12% increase), gasoline inventories decreased by 2.35 million barrels to 217.65 million barrels (a 1.07% decrease), diesel inventories increased by 4.05 million barrels to 124.68 million barrels (a 3.35% increase), fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.41 million barrels to 20.80 million barrels (a 1.93% decrease), and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.63 million barrels to 43.90 million barrels (a 1.46% increase) [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 17, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2376 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is still weak, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. Enterprise profits are good, overseas operating rates are high, and arrivals are increasing, resulting in sufficient supply. The profit of port MTO is relatively good year - on - year, traditional demand is weak but there are expectations of a peak season, and demand is expected to improve marginally. Port inventories have reached a new high under high supply, while inland enterprise inventories are lower year - on - year [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 17, the 01 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 1681 yuan/ton, the spot price remained stable, and the basis was - 41 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventories are slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. It is the off - season for domestic agricultural demand, and the operating rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded but is still in a seasonal decline. Overall, demand is weak, and export support is limited [6] Rubber - **Supply**: The forecasted rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is expected to decrease marginally, reducing the positive supply factors [8] - **Market Sentiment**: Bulls are optimistic about rubber due to seasonal expectations, limited rubber production in Southeast Asia (especially Thailand) due to weather and rubber forest conditions, and improved demand expectations in China. Bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, the seasonal off - season for demand, and the possibility that supply benefits may be lower than expected [9] - **Industry Conditions**: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.87%, up 6.17 percentage points from the previous week and 5.23 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.30%, up 5.23 percentage points from the previous week but down 4.53 percentage points from the same period last year. The export expectation has declined after the previous rush of export orders to Europe. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 125.8 tons, a 0.7 - ton (0.57%) decrease; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.3 tons, a 0.5% decrease; and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 46.5 tons, a 0.7% decrease. As of September 14, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 45.8 (- 0.62) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 14950 (- 150) yuan, STR20 at 1860 (- 10) dollars, and STR20 mixed at 1855 (- 10) dollars. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9250 (0) yuan, and the price of cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11500 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 13 yuan to 4973 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4790 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 183 (- 13) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (- 2) yuan/ton [13] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased by 50 yuan to 2550 yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade blue charcoal was 680 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 850 (0) dollars/ton, and the price of caustic soda was 820 (0) yuan/ton [13] - **Fundamentals**: The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.9%, a 2.8% increase; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based production was 79.4%, a 2.7% increase; and the operating rate of ethylene - based production was 81.3%, a 3.2% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 47.5%, a 4% increase. Factory inventory was 31 tons (- 0.6), and social inventory was 93.4 tons (+ 1.6). The comprehensive enterprise profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, few maintenance activities, and high production. Multiple new plants are expected to be put into operation in the short term. Although domestic downstream operating rates have improved, the export expectation has weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate [13] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices rose, while futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with significant upward adjustment potential [15] - **Cost and Supply**: The operating rate of pure benzene is moderately volatile, and the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, but the operating rate of styrene production has been increasing. Styrene port inventories have been significantly reduced [15][16] - **Demand**: As the seasonal peak season approaches, the overall operating rate of the three S products has been declining [16] - **Fundamentals**: The price of pure benzene in East China was 5970 yuan/ton (no change), the spot price of styrene was 7200 yuan/ton (a 75 - yuan increase), the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7138 yuan/ton (a 20 - yuan decrease), the basis was 62 yuan/ton (a 95 - yuan increase), the BZN spread was 136.12 yuan/ton (a 5.62 - yuan increase), the profit of non - integrated styrene production was - 405.3 yuan/ton (a 30 - yuan decrease), the 1 - 2 spread of styrene was 69 yuan/ton (a 19 - yuan decrease), the upstream operating rate was 75% (a 4.70% decrease), the port inventory in Jiangsu was 17.65 tons (a 2.00 - ton decrease), the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.73% (a 1.11% decrease), the operating rate of PS was 61.00% (a 1.10% increase), the operating rate of EPS was 52.52% (a 5.82% decrease), and the operating rate of ABS was 69.00% (a 1.80% decrease) [16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance at the end of the third quarter, and cost support remains [18] - **Fundamentals**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the valuation of PE has limited downward space, but the number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history is high, suppressing the futures price. There are only 40 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is being reduced from a high level, providing support for the price. As the seasonal peak season may be approaching, the raw material inventory for agricultural films has started to build up, and the overall operating rate has stabilized at a low level [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. There is still 145 tons of planned production capacity, resulting in high supply pressure. The downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low [19] - **Fundamentals**: In a context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no obvious short - term contradiction. The large number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history suppresses the futures price [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 10 yuan to 6772 yuan, the PX CFR price rose 2 dollars to 836 dollars, the basis was 71 yuan (+ 5) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 11 - 1 spread was 32 yuan (- 10) [21] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate in China was 87.8%, a 4.1% increase; the operating rate in Asia was 79%, a 2.5% increase. CNOOC Huizhou increased its production, Fuhua Group restarted, and an overseas 19 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos restarted [21] - **Imports and Inventories**: In early September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 10.6 tons, a 0.6 - ton decrease compared to the same period last year. The inventory at the end of July was 389.9 tons, a 24 - ton decrease from the previous month [21] - **Valuation and Cost**: The PXN was 229 dollars (+ 1), and the naphtha cracking spread was 103 dollars (- 11). Currently, the PX operating rate remains high, while the downstream PTA has experienced many unexpected maintenance activities in the short term, with a relatively low overall operating rate. The new plant commissioning is expected to be postponed, leading to continuous inventory accumulation of PX, and there is currently no strong driving force for the PXN to rise [21][22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 24 yuan to 4712 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4620 yuan, the basis was - 77 yuan (+ 3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan (+ 10) [23] - **Operating Rates**: The PTA operating rate was 76.8%, a 4.6% increase. Dushan Energy and Hengli Huizhou restarted. The downstream operating rate was 91.6%, a 0.3% increase, with little change in the plants. The operating rate of terminal texturing remained at 78%, and the operating rate of looms remained at 66% [23] - **Inventories**: On September 5, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 207 tons, a 5 - ton decrease [23] - **Valuation and Cost**: The spot processing fee of PTA remained unchanged at 131 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 11 yuan to 291 yuan. In the future, the unexpected maintenance volume on the supply side remains high, and the inventory reduction pattern continues. However, due to the weak long - term outlook, the processing fee is continuously suppressed. The inventory and profit pressure of polyester fibers on the demand side are low, and the operating rate is expected to remain high, but the terminal recovery speed is slow [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 25 yuan to 4297 yuan, the East China spot price fell 12 yuan to 4373 yuan, the basis was 81 yuan (- 10), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 61 yuan (- 11) [24] - **Supply**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 74.9%, a 1.2% increase. The operating rate of syngas - based production was 76.7%, a 3.1% increase, and the operating rate of ethylene - based production remained unchanged. Some syngas - based plants had production stoppages and restarts, and overseas plants also had some changes in their operating status. The import arrival forecast was 9.4 tons, and the departure volume from East China ports on September 16 was 0.67 tons [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 91.6%, a 0.3% increase, with little change in the plants. The operating rate of terminal texturing remained at 78%, and the operating rate of looms remained at 66% [24] - **Inventories and Valuation**: The port inventory was 46.5 tons, a 0.6 - ton increase. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 613 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 784 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 812 yuan. The cost of ethylene increased to 850 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder increased to 570 yuan. Currently, the operating rates of domestic and overseas plants are high, and the domestic supply is large. Although the port arrival volume is expected to be low in the short term, the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term due to concentrated imports, high domestic operating rates, and the commissioning of new plants. The valuation is currently relatively high year - on - year [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, believing that the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2]. - For methanol, it is expected that the fundamentals will gradually improve, and the market should pay attention to potential long - position opportunities and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4]. - For urea, with weak demand and limited export support, the price is expected to move in a range at a low - valuation level. It is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [6]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, while the short - term view is neutral. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trades [12]. - For PVC, given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation in the domestic market, it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies, but also beware of short - covering rallies [14]. - For benzene ethylene, in the long term, the BZN spread may recover. When the inventory reaches the inflection point of destocking, the price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term, and the cost has some support [19]. - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [20]. - For PX, with the terminal and polyester data gradually improving, it is recommended to follow the crude oil and go long at low prices when the peak season arrives [22][23]. - For PTA, it is recommended to follow PX and go long at low prices after the terminal performance improves in the peak season [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation is supported by low arrivals, but there is downward pressure on the valuation in the medium term [25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 3.10 yuan/barrel, or 0.64%, at 489.20 yuan/barrel [1]. - **Core View**: The geopolitical premium has disappeared, and OPEC's production increase is minimal. The view that OPEC is conducting a stress test on the market is maintained. The oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside [2]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 11, the 01 contract fell 20 yuan/ton to 2387 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 102 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is weak, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. The enterprise profit is good, overseas production is at a high level, and arrivals are increasing, so the supply is sufficient. The port MTO profit is good year - on - year, and there is an expectation of marginal improvement in demand. The port inventory has reached a new high, while the inland enterprise inventory is low year - on - year. The fundamentals are expected to improve gradually [4]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 11, the 01 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 1671 yuan/ton, the spot price was stable, and the basis was - 11 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic enterprise inventory is slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. The domestic agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the compound fertilizer production has rebounded but is still in the seasonal decline stage. The demand is weak, and export support is limited [6]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to move in a range at a low - valuation level. It is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [6]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated weakly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 5 - 10 days has decreased, reducing the positive factors. The long - position view is based on seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while the short - position view is due to weak demand, uncertain macro - expectations, and the possibility that supply benefits may be less than expected. The all - steel tire production rate has increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, while the export expectation has declined. The natural rubber social inventory in China has decreased [10][11]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term view is bullish, while the short - term view is neutral. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trades [12]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 31 yuan to 4888 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 208 (- 1) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 300 (+2) yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide is stable, and the overall PVC production rate has increased. The downstream production rate has also increased slightly. The enterprise comprehensive profit is at a high level this year, the valuation pressure is large, the maintenance volume is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic downstream production is at a five - year low, and the export expectation has weakened after the Indian anti - dumping tax rate is determined [14]. - **Strategy**: Given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation in the domestic market, it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies, but also beware of short - covering rallies [14]. 3.6 Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened. The BZN spread is at a low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space [16][17]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of pure benzene production is stable, and the supply is still abundant. The production rate of benzene ethylene has been increasing, and the port inventory has been decreasing significantly. The demand of the three S industries has declined. In the long term, the BZN spread may recover, and the price may rebound when the inventory reaches the inflection point of destocking [17]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [17]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost has some support. The spot price is stable, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. The remaining planned production capacity is 400,000 tons, the overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the demand for agricultural film raw materials has started to stock up, with the overall production rate stabilizing at a low level [19]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term [19]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The remaining planned production capacity is 1.45 million tons, with relatively high pressure. The downstream production rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [20]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [20]. 3.9 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 8 yuan to 6778 yuan, the PX CFR was flat at 838 US dollars, the basis was 83 (- 11) yuan, and the 11 - 1 spread was 60 (+8) yuan [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The PX production rate is at a high level, the short - term unexpected maintenance of downstream PTA is relatively high, and the overall production rate center is low. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, the inventory accumulation of PX is not significant, and the terminal and polyester data are gradually improving. The valuation has limited downward space, but there is no strong upward driving force for PXN currently [22]. - **Strategy**: With the terminal and polyester data gradually improving, it is recommended to follow the crude oil and go long at low prices when the peak season arrives [22][23]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract fell 10 yuan to 4688 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 4620 yuan, the basis was - 70 (- 7) yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 32 (- 4) yuan [24]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA production rate has increased, and the downstream production rate has also increased slightly. The terminal production rate is flat. The social inventory has decreased. The spot processing fee and the on - market processing fee have both decreased. The unexpected maintenance volume on the supply side has increased, and the inventory accumulation pattern has changed to destocking, but the processing fee is under pressure. The polyester fiber inventory pressure on the demand side is low, and the downstream and terminal production has improved, but the terminal recovery speed is slow [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to follow PX and go long at low prices after the terminal performance improves in the peak season [24]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 17 yuan to 4302 yuan, the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4414 yuan, the basis was 106 (- 11) yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 48 (- 11) yuan [25]. - **Fundamentals**: The production rate of ethylene glycol has increased, and the downstream production rate has also increased slightly. The terminal production rate is flat. The import arrival forecast is 930,000 tons, and the port inventory has increased. The cost of ethylene is stable, and the coal price has increased. The domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is expected to be low in the short term due to low arrivals, but it will turn to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter as imports arrive in a concentrated manner and the domestic production rate is expected to remain high [25]. - **Valuation Outlook**: The short - term valuation is supported by low arrivals, but there is downward pressure on the valuation in the medium term [25].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Bullish trend, recommend long on dips and focus on the 11-1 calendar spread [1][3] - PTA: Bullish trend, recommend long on dips, basis and calendar spread long positions, and long PTA short PX (11 contract) [1][4] - MEG: Bullish trend in the short term, but faces significant resistance above 4600, recommend 1-5 reverse calendar spread [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The PX-MX spread has further widened, potentially boosting short - term PX supply. The polyester terminal is strengthening, and PX supply - demand is tight, leading to a positive feedback pattern [1][2][3] - PTA is in a de - stocking pattern in August. Demand is seasonally improving, and the PTA basis and calendar spread have strengthened [4] - Domestic MEG plants' maintenance is mostly over, with increased operating loads. Although port inventory is decreasing, the 01 contract still faces supply increase pressure in October [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Prices**: PX, PTA, and SC futures prices rose slightly yesterday, with PX up 0.11%, PTA up 0.16%, and SC up 0.55%. PF futures price remained unchanged, and MEG rose 0.02% [1] - **Futures Calendar Spreads**: PX9 - 1, PTA9 - 1, PF9 - 1, and SC9 - 10 calendar spreads decreased, while MEG9 - 1 remained unchanged [1] - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR China, PTA East China, and Dated Brent spot prices rose, while MEG spot and MOPJ naphtha prices fell [1] - **Spot Processing Margins**: PX - naphtha, PTA, and short - fiber processing margins increased, while bottle - chip processing margin decreased, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread remained unchanged [1] Market Dynamics - On August 22, the PX - MX spread in Asia reached a more than five - year high of $166.83/ton [2] - In July, China's PX imports increased by about 2.18% month - on - month to 782,045 tons. Imports from Singapore soared 69% to 25,032 tons, and those from South Korea increased slightly by 0.32% to 359,509 tons. Imports from Brunei increased by 5% to 107,761 tons, while imports from Unv1 decreased by 31.59% to 77,983 tons, and those from Japan decreased by 11.75% to 111,767 tons [2][3] - On August 22, there were bids, offers, and 6 transactions for PX cargoes to be delivered in October and November in the Asian PX Platts closing market assessment [3] Trend Intensity - PX, PTA, and MEG all have a trend intensity of 1, indicating a bullish - biased trend [3] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Bullish trend, long on dips, focus on the 11 - 1 calendar spread. PX followed PTA's rise due to PTA plant outages, and the PX - MX spread is widening. The polyester peak season is coming, and raw material price - rising ability is strong [3] - **PTA**: Bullish price, long on dips. Basis and calendar spread long positions. Long PTA short PX (11 contract). PTA plant operating rates decreased this week, and it entered a de - stocking pattern in August. Demand is seasonally improving [4] - **MEG**: Bullish in the short term but faces resistance above 4600. Domestic plants' operating loads have increased, port inventory is decreasing, but the 01 contract faces supply increase pressure in October. Recommend 1 - 5 reverse calendar spread [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2] Group 2: Core Views of the Reports - Overall, the downstream copper demand and acceptance are supportive, the scrap substitution effect is also effective, and there are no substantial negatives in the overseas macro - level. So, the copper price is viewed positively, and attention can be paid to the internal - external reverse arbitrage positions in the remaining time of the third quarter [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable. In the low - inventory pattern, it can be held at low prices. Pay attention to the far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage. In the long - term, the domestic supply elasticity decreases, and the overseas supply is the main variable, so pay attention to the actual demand [2] - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. In the short - term, it shows an external - strong and internal - weak situation. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the sustainability of the commodity sentiment. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued to be held, and attention can be paid to the inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is mainly about the game of anti - involution policies. Opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be concerned [8] - The fundamentals of stainless steel generally remain weak. In the short - term, the macro - level follows the anti - involution expectations, and attention should be paid to the later policy trends [12] - The lead price declined this week. It is expected that battery factories will replenish their stocks next week, and the lead price center will rise [13] - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. In the short - term, there are both disturbances in domestic raw material supply and expectations of consumption decline, maintaining a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to short lightly at high prices [14] - In the short - term, the supply and demand of industrial silicon have turned to a balanced state in August. In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial silicon capacity is still in a large surplus, and the price will mainly fluctuate at the cycle bottom [17] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the price has a large upward elasticity. In the medium - to - long - term, if the resource - end disturbance risk is resolved smoothly, the lithium carbonate capacity surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the price will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [19] Group 3: Summaries by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Performance**: In the first half of the week, the copper price was supported around 78,000 yuan. In the second half, with the decline of the US dollar index and the increase of overseas interest - rate cut expectations, and the low scrap - refined spread, the copper price was strong on Friday night, trying to break through 79,000 yuan [1] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the spot premium increased by 136, the warehouse receipt decreased by 3496, the spot import profit decreased by 123.88, and the three - month import profit decreased by 291.50 [1] Aluminum - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased slightly, and the demand in August is expected to be in the seasonal off - season. Overseas demand declined significantly, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly in August [2] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 120 yuan, the domestic alumina price decreased by 1, the import alumina price decreased by 50, and the LME inventory increased by 1525 [1][2] Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the domestic TC has difficulty rising, and the import TC is rising slowly. In August, the smelting increment is further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand has some production resistance due to processing fees [5] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 60 yuan, the LME C - 3M increased by 3, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1075 [5] Nickel - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is generally weak, and the inventory of nickel plates at home and abroad remains stable [8] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the spot import income increased by 268.35, and the LME inventory decreased by 648 [8] Stainless Steel - **Supply and Demand**: Some steel mills have passive production cuts, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, with some inventory replenishment due to the macro - atmosphere. Costs remain stable, and inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly [12] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 50 yuan, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil increased by 50 yuan, and the price of 430 cold - rolled coil increased by 100 yuan [12] Lead - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recycled lead has low start - up. On the demand side, the battery inventory is high, and the market's peak - season expectations have fallen. There is expected to be inventory accumulation in July [13] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the spot premium remained unchanged, the spot import income decreased by 86.27, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 [13] Tin - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the domestic smelting output may decline slightly in July - August. Overseas, there are signals of复产, but the specific quantity needs to be observed. On the demand side, the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline [14] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the spot import income increased by 1853.59, the LME C - 3M decreased by 13, and the LME inventory increased by 15 [14] Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the supply and demand have turned to balance in August. In the medium - to - long - term, the capacity is in large surplus [17] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 240, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 240, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 43 [15][17] Lithium Carbonate - **Supply and Demand**: There are short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. In the long - term, the capacity is still in surplus [19] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3000 yuan, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3000 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 850 [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the 2025 capital market summer strategy conference hosted by Shenwan Hongyuan gathered significant participation from executives of nearly 500 listed companies and over 2,200 investors, indicating strong interest in market strategies and opportunities [1] Group 2 - Huang Weiping, the chief analyst of bonds at Shenwan Hongyuan, highlighted that the bond market in 2025 will differ from the single-sided bull market of 2024, entering a phase characterized by "low interest rates + interest rate spreads + high volatility," suggesting a need to abandon the single-sided bull market mindset [3] - Huang pointed out two key areas to focus on regarding liquidity in the second half of the year: the timing of the central bank's bond purchases and the alignment of purchase rhythm with supply rhythm, noting that the net supply of government bonds typically peaks in the second half of the year [3] - The potential recovery of government bond purchases is anticipated to coincide with the second wave of net supply peaks within the year, which may lead to substantial buying strength [3] - Huang identified June to August as a favorable window for long positions, as the demand for real economy financing declines and the central bank may resume government bond purchases [3] - The market outlook for the year suggests a shift away from a single-sided bull market perspective, with a focus on high volatility and oscillating market conditions [3] - Opportunities in the current bond market include monitoring the compression of yield spreads between different bond types, such as local government bonds versus national government bonds [3] - In the futures market, strategies include capturing wave opportunities in local government bonds and TL "positive spreads," with a focus on short-duration credit bonds and long-duration local government bonds after July [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that fuel oil futures have risen slightly due to an increase in crude oil prices, with the main contract reported at 2976.00 yuan/ton, up by 1.19% [1] - As of June 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported fuel oil futures warehouse receipts at 28,950 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, while low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained at 1,000 tons [2] - The Venezuelan government is preparing for a 50% increase in fuel prices following Chevron and other oil companies halting operations in the country [2] Group 2 - FGE forecasts that Middle Eastern fuel oil consumption will reach 1.05 million barrels per day from June to December 2025, an increase of 70,000 barrels per day year-on-year [2] - The Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market structure has slightly strengthened due to expectations of tight supply in June, while high-sulfur fuel oil markets remain stable amid peak electricity demand in the Middle East and South Asia [4] - Southwest Futures suggests that rising crude oil prices are likely to drive fuel oil prices upward, despite increasing fuel oil inventories in Singapore due to higher imports [4]

Report Summary Core Views - PTA market: The maintenance of PX units has ended, and the supply of PX has increased. The basis of PTA has weakened, and the long - position spread has declined. There is selling pressure in the spot market, and polyester factories may reduce production slightly [2]. - Ethylene glycol market: The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China remains at over 700,000 tons. The load of coal - based ethylene glycol units has increased, but the coal price has risen, and the mainstream units are about to be overhauled, leading to future inventory reduction [2]. - Polyester filament: Three major polyester filament manufacturers have decided to reduce production of loss - making products immediately and plan further production cuts in the short term due to the rapid rise in raw material prices [3]. Market Data Summary 1. Price and Spread - INE crude oil price dropped from 453.7 yuan/barrel on May 22, 2025, to 452.8 yuan/barrel on May 23, 2025, a decrease of 0.90 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC spread increased from 1404.9 yuan/ton to 1425.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.54 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.4261 to 1.4332, an increase of 0.0071 [2]. - CFR China PX price increased from 823 to 826, an increase of 3; PX - naphtha spread rose from 246 to 266, an increase of 19 [2]. - PTA futures price rose from 4702 yuan/ton to 4716 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 4860 to 4875, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA spot processing fee increased from 382.5 yuan/ton to 395.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.7 yuan/ton; PTA futures processing fee decreased from 234.5 yuan/ton to 231.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.3 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG futures price dropped from 4411 yuan/ton to 4403 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price increased from 4501 to 4525, an increase of 24 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG - naphtha spread increased from (79.34) yuan/ton to (78.53) yuan/ton, an increase of 0.8 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Basis - PTA basis increased from 126 to 151, an increase of 25; MEG basis increased from 88 to 100, an increase of 12 [2]. 3. Inventory - PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 57,158 to 56,566, a decrease of 592 [2]. 4. Operating Rates - PX operating rate remained at 77.29%; PTA operating rate remained at 78.25%; MEG operating rate remained at 50.00%; polyester load remained at 91.11% [2]. 5. Product Cash Flows and Sales Ratios - In polyester filament, POY, FDY, and DTY cash flows decreased by 21 yuan/ton, and the sales ratio remained at 33% [2]. - In polyester staple fiber, the cash flow decreased from 97 to 76 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton, and the sales ratio increased from 48% to 60%, an increase of 12% [2]. - In polyester chips, the cash flow decreased from (98) to (129) yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton, and the sales ratio increased from 23% to 39%, an increase of 16% [2].