Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is unlikely to replicate the situation at the end of 2020. The current credit risk event is unlikely to significantly change market expectations or prompt institutions such as banks and insurance companies to accelerate their entry into the bond market, and it may not change the main trading line of interest rate bonds [6][9][16]. - In December, the pressure on the capital market is expected to be controllable, but the overall trading opportunities in the bond market are still limited. The supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, and fiscal spending tends to increase at the end of the year. The bond market may continue its weak and volatile pattern, and the trading space is narrow [6][16]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - Some investors compare Vanke's debt extension to Yongmei's default, believing that the bond market will replicate the situation at the end of 2020. However, the impact of Yongmei's default was mainly due to the panic after the collapse of the "state - owned enterprise belief" and the negative feedback of fund products, which is less likely to happen now. The central bank responds quickly to credit risk events, and this event is unlikely to change market expectations significantly [6][9][16]. - In 2020, after Yongmei's default, the credit bond market was sold off, leading to a marginal tightening of the capital market and a significant adjustment of interest rate bonds. There was a negative feedback in the fund product market. The central bank increased liquidity injection, and the market gradually stabilized after the financial regulatory authorities' statement [10][11][15]. - In contrast, Vanke's debt - extension has a lower panic - causing effect, and the probability of credit risk spreading to the interest rate and capital markets is weak. The capital market pressure in December is expected to be controllable, but the bond market trading opportunities are limited [16]. 2. This Week's Focus Points in the Fixed - Income Market 2.1 Next Week's Overseas Data - This week, important data will be released, including China's November foreign exchange reserves, the US November PMI, November ADP employment figures, and the Eurozone's November PMI and October PPI monthly rate [17][19]. 2.2 This Week's Interest Rate Bond Issuance - This week, the interest rate bond issuance scale is expected to be 456.7 billion yuan, which is at a medium level compared to the same period. Among them, the issuance scale of treasury bonds is expected to be about 218 billion yuan, local bonds are planned to be issued at 108.7 billion yuan, and policy - financial bonds are expected to be issued at about 130 billion yuan [19][20][21]. 3. Interest Rate Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Reverse Repurchase Net Withdrawal - This week, the reverse repurchase net withdrawal was 16.42 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 1 trillion yuan and 900 billion yuan matured. The treasury deposit was increased by 12 billion yuan, and the central bank bills were offset. The total net injection of open - market operations was 5.58 billion yuan. The capital interest rate showed a structural differentiation, and the repurchase trading volume decreased [26][27]. - The certificate of deposit issuance increased slightly, the net financing was negative, the short - term issuance interest rate increased, and the long - term secondary yield was relatively stable [33]. 3.2 Interest Rates of All Maturities Rose - Last week, due to the unstable liability side of fixed - income products and market concerns about the new fund regulations, the interest rate market adjusted. In the second half of the week, long - term bonds led the marginal repair of spot bonds. The yields of 10 - year treasury bonds and CDB bonds increased by 1.7bp and 2.5bp respectively. The yields of treasury bonds of all maturities increased, with the 7 - year treasury bond yield rising the most, by about 3.8bp [42][45]. 4. High - Frequency Data - On the production side, most operating rates declined. The blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and PTA operating rate decreased, while the asphalt operating rate increased. The average daily crude steel output in mid - November had a negative year - on - year growth rate of - 12.5% [6][54]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail improved. The year - on - year decline in commercial housing transaction area slightly narrowed. The SCFI and CCFI comprehensive indices changed by 0.7% and - 0.1% respectively [6][54][57]. - In terms of prices, crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices increased. The coking coal price decreased by 4.4%. The building materials comprehensive price index, cement index, and glass index increased. The rebar output decreased, and the inventory continued to decline to 3.85 million tons. The prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork changed by 1.9%, 1.8%, and - 0.4% respectively [6][57].

据Wind数据显示，规模方面，30年国债ETF最新规模达323.35亿元。资金流入方面，近20个交易日内有 13日资金净流入，合计"吸金"6.93亿元。 截至2025年12月1日 10:18，30年国债ETF(511090)上涨0.06%。流动性方面，30年国债ETF盘中换手 4.77%，成交15.22亿元。拉长时间看，截至11月28日，30年国债ETF近1年日均成交82.69亿元。 30年国债ETF紧密跟踪中债-30年期国债指数(总值)财富指数，中债-30年期国债指数隶属于中债总指数 族系，该指数成分券由在境内公开发行上市流通的发行期限为30年且待偿期25-30年（包含25年和30 年）的记账式国债组成（不包含特别国债），可作为投资该类债券的业绩比较基准和标的指数。 风险提示：中债-30年期国债财富(总值)指数(代码:CBA21801)来源于中债金融估值中心有限公司("中 债")。本基金为被动投资的交易型开放式指数基金，主要采用抽样复制策略，跟踪标的指数市场表现， 具有与标的指数所表征的市场相似的风险收益特征。投资者投资于本基金面临标的指数回报与相应市场 平均回报偏离、标的指数波动、跟踪误差控制未达约定目标 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 债券研究 【债券日报】 基金新规等利空影响下，收益率曲线熊陡 ——利率债市场周度复盘 利率债市场复盘：基金新规等利空影响下，收益率曲线熊陡 周一（11 月 24 日），美联储降息预期升温带动海外风险资产修复，权益市场 探底回升，股债跷板效应明显，现券收益率先下后上，全天波动幅度多在 0.5BP 以内，7y 国债表现较好，尾盘央行超额续作 MLF 净投放 1000 亿元。 周二（11 月 25 日），隔夜中美元首通话，地缘政治影响缓和，权益市场风险 偏好回暖，股债跷板效应压制债市情绪，叠加公募基金销售新规扰动，现券收 益率整体上行，短端得益于资金面转松表现持稳，中长端表现较弱。 周三（11 月 26 日），权益市场风险偏好维持高位，股债跷板效应压制债市表 现，叠加公募基金销售新规、万科事件、央行买债预期冲击债市情绪，现券收 益率整体上行，短端得益于资金面偏松表现持稳，中长端表现较弱。 周四（11 月 27 日），资金面平稳宽松，消费品政策提振下，权益市场高开高 走，股债跷板、万科展期叠加部分产品受到赎回扰动，债市情绪偏弱，长端表 现明显弱于短端。 周五（11 月 28 日），日内资金面由 ...

银行间主要利率债收益率全线下行，截至下午16:30，10年期国债活跃券250016收益率下行1.25bp报 1.8315%，30年期国债活跃券2500006收益率下行0.95bp报2.187%，10年期国开活跃券250215收益率下行 1.55bp报1.902%。 | | 利率德二级 信用债二级 NCD二级 NCD二级 | | | 基准 ● 前收 ● 估值 用 … | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1Y 100 2Y 2Y 2Y 2Y 3Y 3Y 3Y 3Y 3Y 100 7Y 100 100 100 100 100 | | 超长债 | | | | | | 1.4000 -0.75 1.4150 -1.25 1.4350 -1.50 1.5650 -1.00 1.7325 -0.75 1.8315 -1.25 2.1870 -0.95 | | | | | | | 国债 | 250019.08 250017.18 250023.18 250003.18 250003.18 250018.18 250016.18 2500006.18 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The year - end bond market rally can still be expected, but the magnitude should be rationally viewed. Bank, insurance, and wealth - management funds still have bond - allocation needs, protecting the market. However, the rate - cut expectation is weaker than in the past two years, so the rally may be limited [5][7][109]. - Currently, the three factors affecting bond - market fluctuations are risk preference, fund sales regulations, and year - end rally. As the negative impacts of risk preference and fee regulations are weakening, the risk of yield rising above the previous high is controllable. Before the implementation of the fee regulations, the bond market may fluctuate narrowly around 1.8%, and a potential decline in yield may occur later [5][7][109]. - Structurally, there is room to explore the spread of 3 - 5y policy - financial bonds. Attention can be paid to 7y CDB bonds in the medium - term, and the 30 - 10y treasury bond term spread may continue to compress. The 30y treasury bond swap strategy can be considered, and 15 - 30y local bonds can be participated in after the November supply peak [5][7][109]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 10 - month Central Bank Balance Sheet and Custody Volume Interpretation - **2025 October Central Bank Balance Sheet Changes**: The central bank's balance - sheet size decreased from 47.14 trillion yuan to 47.06 trillion yuan. The main reduction item on the asset side was "claims on the government", and the main increase item on the liability side was "government deposits". The "other depository corporation deposits" decreased seasonally [12][13][22]. - **Impact of Central Bank Operations on Custody Volume in October 2025**: The net investment scale of innovative tools was close to the change in the custody - account balance. The main incremental bond type was local bonds, and treasury bonds shifted from reduction to increase [27]. 3.2 Leverage Ratio Driven by the carry - trade space, institutions' willingness to increase leverage marginally recovered. In October, the average monthly trading volume of repurchase increased, and the average leverage ratio of bond funds rose. It reached the highest level in early November and then declined due to tightened liquidity [30]. 3.3 By Institution - **Banks**: Big banks' bond - allocation speed slowed down, with both primary - and secondary - market bond - buying efforts decreasing. Rural commercial banks may still have bond - allocation needs as their deposit growth rate exceeds the loan growth rate [42][48][54]. - **Insurance**: In the context of a bullish equity market, the incremental bond investment of insurance companies declined. In Q3 2025, there was an inversion between the incremental bond investment and secondary - market bond - buying scale. However, in the future, there may still be bond - allocation demand for incremental funds [62][70]. - **General Funds**: The bond - allocation sentiment improved. At the end of the year, there may still be a tendency to front - run, but the intensity may weaken. The scale of bond funds increased, and wealth - management products had strong bond - allocation demand, which is beneficial for the year - end rally [72][80][83]. - **Foreign Capital**: The comprehensive return on investing in certificates of deposit decreased, and foreign capital maintained a net outflow, mainly reducing holdings of certificates of deposit and policy - financial bonds while increasing holdings of treasury bonds [84][91]. 3.4 By Bond Type In October, the incremental custody volume of the bond market rebounded, and certificates of deposit and government bonds were the main supporting items. The net financing scale of government bonds decreased, the supply of policy - financial bonds slightly increased, and the net financing of certificates of deposit increased significantly [92][99][102].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes maintaining duration as the year-end approaches, with a focus on medium to long-term credit varieties, particularly 4-5 year products which show marginal improvement in cost-performance despite still low spread levels [2][10][12] - The current yield range for long-term credit bonds (5 years and above) rated AA+ and above is between 2.16% and 2.66%, indicating a certain level of yield cost-performance [3][10] - The report notes that funds have significantly increased their allocation to 5-year and above credit bonds, reflecting a trend towards extending duration for yield [3][10] Group 2 - The report highlights key policies and events, including Tianjin's measures to support high-quality development of REITs, which aim to enhance capital market services for the real economy [4][19] - The upcoming revision of the "Commercial Bank M&A Loan Management Measures" is expected to broaden the scope of applicable loans and optimize loan conditions, which could facilitate mergers and acquisitions [4][19][24] - The report mentions that the National Development and Reform Commission has recommended 105 infrastructure REITs projects to the CSRC, with 83 already issued, indicating a normalization in the issuance of infrastructure REITs [4][19][24] Group 3 - The report indicates that the credit bond market has seen a majority of yields decline, with financial bonds performing better, while credit spreads have shown divergence [6][10] - The issuance scale of credit bonds this week was 269.9 billion, a decrease of 20.5 billion from the previous week, with net financing also down [7][10] - The report notes a decrease in trading activity in both the interbank and exchange markets for credit bonds, suggesting a decline in market liquidity [7][10]

Group 1 - As of November 7, the total scale of credit bond ETFs reached 493.8 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 2.87 billion yuan, while the benchmark market-making ETF decreased by 0.23 billion yuan and the Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETF increased by 0.63 billion yuan; the weighted average duration median is 3.3 years [1] - The overall trading volume was 169.4 billion yuan, with an average single transaction amount of 5.98 million yuan (benchmark market-making 5.73 million yuan, Sci-Tech Innovation Bond 6.30 million yuan); the median turnover rate was 33.7% [1] - The median yield was 1.84%, and the median discount rate was -19.6 basis points (benchmark market-making -31.3 basis points, Sci-Tech Innovation Bond -16.7 basis points) [1] Group 2 - Last week, the bond market experienced a three-day rally driven by the central bank's bond purchases, but adjustments began due to rumors of redemption new regulations, leading to significant net redemptions in several bond ETFs, although the overall scale still showed slight growth [2] - The top-ranked funds by scale include Hai Fu Tong Short-term Bond ETF (69.073 billion yuan, 1st), Bosera Convertible Bond ETF (57.732 billion yuan, 2nd), and others, with notable inflow into Ping An Corporate Bond ETF (511030) of 470 million yuan, attributed to its short duration (1.95 years) and static high yield (current 1.90%) [2] - The Ping An Corporate Bond ETF (511030) ranked first in drawdown control since the bond market adjustment began this year, with a relatively stable net value and controllable drawdown, averaging a premium of 2 basis points over the past week [3] Group 3 - The bond market's trading last week was primarily influenced by the central bank's treasury transactions, upcoming fund fee regulation rumors, and market risk appetite, with future pricing likely shifting to fundamental changes and the final implementation of bond fund redemption regulations [3] - The market did not continue the bullish trend from the end of last month, maintaining a bearish oscillation, with long-end bonds strengthening towards the end of the week; the overall market showed fluctuations with collective yield increases [3] Group 4 - Institutions believe that domestic demand is weak and supply is excessive, indicating no inflation issues in the coming years; the impact of pandemic-related spending in Europe and the U.S. may have peaked, making sustained export growth challenging [5] - The formal implementation of punitive redemption fees is anticipated to be a negative factor, but the market remains optimistic about the bond market, expecting a second wave of momentum in Q4 [5] - The opening of bond funds under the amortized cost method is expected to lead to a transition from government bonds to credit bonds, benefiting long-duration industrial bonds and urban investment bonds in the next six months [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "Three Resources and Three Transformations" reform in Hubei has short - term revenue - increasing effects and long - term transformation pressures on local finance, and also poses challenges to local government work and impacts on financial institutions [2][10][12] - In the credit bond market, the yields are differentiated, and different investment strategies are proposed for different maturities and types of bonds [5][13][17] - There are several key policies and hot events in the week, including the cooperation between Vanke and Shenzhen Metro Group, and the establishment of the Debt Management Department by the Ministry of Finance [25][26][29] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Hubei's "Three Resources and Three Transformations" Background and Impact - **Background**: Since 2021, due to various factors, local governments need to improve the efficiency of state - owned assets. Central documents have been issued to promote asset revitalization, and the "Three Resources and Three Transformations" concept was first proposed in Hunan and then introduced in Hubei [8][9] - **Government Measures**: The scope of asset revitalization includes state - owned resources, assets, and funds. The measures are resource integration, asset revitalization, and capital leveraging [9] - **Market Impact**: For local finance, there are short - term benefits and long - term challenges; local governments face problems in asset confirmation and market - based mechanisms; financial institutions need to support innovation and make prudent investment decisions [2][10][12] 2. Credit Strategy: Allocate Funds to Focus on Long - Term Credit Opportunities, and Trading Funds to Wait for the Opportunity to Play the Secondary Perpetual Bond Market - **Credit Bond Market Review**: This week, credit bond yields were differentiated, with 4 - 5y varieties performing well, and most credit spreads narrowing [13][14][33] - **Outlook**: Credit bonds should focus on the new fund fee regulations and the institutional year - end allocation market in mid - to late November [14][15][17] 3. Key Policies and Hot Events - Vanke signed a borrowing and guarantee framework agreement with Shenzhen Metro Group, with a borrowing limit of up to 22 billion yuan [25][26][31] - The Minister of Finance emphasized fiscal scientific management and local government debt risks [25][27][32] - The "Counter Bond Flagship Store" model was launched, and the Ministry of Finance established a Debt Management Department [25][28][29] - Zhengzhou supported the market - based financing of old community renovation platform companies, and Chongqing adjusted some administrative divisions [25][29][30] 4. Secondary Market - Credit bond yields were differentiated, and most credit spreads narrowed, with 4 - 5y varieties performing relatively better [33][34][35] 5. Primary Market - The net financing of credit bonds and urban investment bonds increased compared to the previous period [not explicitly described in the summary part, but mentioned in the table of contents] 6. Trading Liquidity - The trading activity of credit bonds in the inter - bank market and the exchange market decreased this week [not explicitly described in the summary part, but mentioned in the table of contents] 7. Rating Adjustment - One entity's rating was downgraded this week, and there was no entity with a rating upgrade [not explicitly described in the summary part, but mentioned in the table of contents]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for Treasury bonds is "oscillation" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contradiction in the bond market is between weak fundamentals and strong risk appetite. Fundamentals are favorable for the bond market, but economic data can no longer drive the bond market to strengthen. The stock market has an obvious impact on the bond market, but it is difficult to predict overseas factors and short - term stock market trends. Overall, the bond market is expected to oscillate. The news of the new fund fee regulations may disrupt the market, but it is unlikely to become the main trading theme [2][14][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From November 3rd to 9th, Treasury bond futures changed from rising to falling. On Monday, the stock market recovered, and Treasury bond futures were weakly oscillating. On Tuesday, the stock market fell, and the bond market was waiting for the central bank's bond - buying news. On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened higher due to the central bank's bond - buying news and lower overseas risk appetite but weakened as the domestic equity market rose. On Thursday, with a calm news background, the stock index was strong, and Treasury bond futures fell. On Friday, the morning session was strong, but the bond market weakened in the afternoon due to concerns about the new fund fee regulations. As of November 7th, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year Treasury bond futures contracts were 102.472, 105.920, 108.475, and 116.030 yuan respectively, down 0.072, 0.145, 0.190, and 0.610 yuan from the previous weekend [1][11] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - Next week, the bond market will still face the contradiction between weak fundamentals and strong risk appetite. Fundamentals are expected to be weak as the economic indicators in October may be poor due to limited growth - stabilizing policies in September - October and the intensifying Sino - US trade war. The impact of the equity market on the bond market is significant, but it is difficult to predict short - term stock market trends because of the domestic policy window period and the complexity of overseas factors. The news of the new fund fee regulations may disrupt the market, but it is unlikely to be the main trading theme. Overall, the bond market is expected to oscillate [14][15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 57 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 5139.97 billion yuan and a net financing of 2883.44 billion yuan. 32 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 916.07 billion yuan and a net financing of - 359.56 billion yuan. 430 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 5278.60 billion yuan and a net financing of 1509.90 billion yuan [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. As of November 7th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.43%, 1.59%, 1.81%, and 2.16% respectively, up 3.04, 2.38, 1.91, and 1.35 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread widened by 0.05bp to 41.35bp, while the 10Y - 5Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed by 0.47bp and 0.56bp respectively [25] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures changed from rising to falling. As of November 7th, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year Treasury bond futures contracts were 102.472, 105.920, 108.475, and 116.030 yuan respectively, down 0.072, 0.145, 0.190, and 0.610 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures this week were 26156, 53541, 72555, and 114770 lots respectively, down 15303, 18919, 11637, and 20960 lots from last week. The open interests were 83061, 177685, 289869, and 180046 lots respectively, with changes of + 2363, + 7744, + 12390, and - 3495 lots from last week [34][39] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - In the first half of the week, the market sentiment was strong, and the IRR of Treasury bond futures was relatively high. In the second half, the market adjusted. For stable returns, investors can choose contracts with high IRR for positive arbitrage strategies [42] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of November 7th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts (2512 - 2603) were + 0.044, + 0.040, + 0.250, and + 0.240 yuan respectively, down 0.002, 0.035, 0.010, and 0.050 yuan from the previous weekend. Next week, the bond market is expected to oscillate, and the short - sellers' motivation to roll over positions will increase, but it is not enough to significantly widen the inter - delivery spreads [46] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 15722 billion yuan this week. As of November 7th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.47%, 1.41%, 1.33%, and 1.42% respectively, with changes of - 2.46, - 4.21, + 0.60, and - 1.70 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.97 trillion yuan, 1.27 trillion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 89.59%, higher than last week [50][53][55] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield oscillated narrowly. As of November 7th, the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.5477 from the previous weekend, the 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.11%, the same as last week, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y Treasury bonds was inverted by 229.7 basis points. The US government is still shut down, and the Fed officials are cautious about inflation due to low data visibility [59] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices fell across the board, and agricultural product prices generally rose. As of November 7th, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3531.08, 6399.37, and 1584.31 points respectively, down 25.59, 86.53, and 6.51 points from the previous weekend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 18.23, 5.78, and 7.04 yuan/kg respectively, up 0.43, 0.09, and 0.00 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [62] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - For the short - term oscillating bond market, it is recommended to observe more and trade less. For the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to positive arbitrage and widening the basis due to the relatively high IRR of some contracts. For the yield curve strategy, if worried about the stock market's strength, stay on the sidelines. For the inter - delivery strategy, although the short - sellers' motivation to roll over positions will increase, the inter - delivery spreads are unlikely to widen significantly [2][17][18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of the central bank's bond purchases in October was significantly lower than market expectations. The subsequent bond - buying rhythm should be objectively evaluated, and there is still significant room for the total scale of the central bank's bond purchases compared to overseas countries. The specific scale is difficult to determine, with a monthly purchase of 200 billion yuan being a relatively fast pace [1][2][3]. - The bond market's α - mining strategy has entered the middle stage. The market is currently focused on the implementation of the new fund fee regulations and their subsequent impacts. The new regulations may drive some funds with a strong preference for liquidity to redeem funds, but it is expected that the 10 - year treasury bond is unlikely to reach new highs [4][5]. - In the interest rate bond market, the bond market was in a weak and volatile state due to the central bank's bond purchases being lower than expectations and concerns about the new fund regulations. The central bank's OMO had a large - scale net withdrawal, and the capital market was balanced and loose. The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased. The term spreads of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds both narrowed [10][11][55]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Objective View of the Scale and Rhythm of the Central Bank's Bond Purchases 3.1.1 Overseas Reference - Compared with overseas countries, the proportion of the central bank's treasury bond holdings in its total assets and the overall treasury bond market in China is relatively low. For example, in Japan, the eurozone, Canada, and the United States, the proportion of central bank treasury bond holdings in total assets is over 60%, while in China, it is about 4.7%. The proportion of central bank treasury bond holdings in the total treasury bond market in Japan and the eurozone is 48% and 36% respectively, while in Canada and the United States, it is around 11.9% and 14.1%, and in China, it is about 5.7% [2][15]. - Historically, the proportion of the Federal Reserve's treasury bond holdings in the total US treasury bonds was around 9 - 10% before 2008, and it gradually compressed to around 10% near the end of each round of QT after 2008 [2][16]. 3.1.2 Scale Deduction - If the central bank's annual bond - buying increment is 1 trillion yuan, it will not be until 2030 that the proportion of bond - holding scale to the total treasury bond scale approaches the Federal Reserve's normal - state level of 10%. If the increment is expanded to 2 - 3 trillion yuan, this proportion can be reached by the end of 2026 [22]. - Currently, the central bank has a high degree of flexibility in bond - buying scale. It is difficult to directly compare with last year's level. A monthly net purchase of about 100 billion yuan is a neutral level, while a monthly net purchase of 200 billion yuan may lead to a smoother year - end market trend [25][26]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy: The α - Mining Strategy Enters the Middle Stage - Since October, the bond market has continued to fluctuate within a narrow range, mainly fluctuating around 1.8%. The market is currently mainly concerned with the implementation of the new fund fee regulations and their subsequent impacts [28]. - The impact of the new fund fee regulations is relatively controllable. It is expected that the 10 - year treasury bond is unlikely to reach new highs, but the regulations may drive some funds to redeem funds, with the estimated redemption scale being around 500 billion yuan. The impact on the bond market can be referenced to the small - scale redemption tides since the second quarter of 2025 [32][33][39]. - The 10 - year treasury bond is still in a volatile market, and the α - mining strategy has entered the middle stage. For perpetual bonds and credit bonds, short - term profit - taking is advisable, and the right - side allocation opportunities should be grasped after the redemption disturbances. For interest rate bonds, different varieties have different investment strategies. For example, local bonds with a maturity of over 6 years have seen a significant decline in their variety spreads, and the medium - term spreads still have some room for compression but are approaching the central level. The purchase of treasury bonds can be carried out in a dumbbell - shaped manner [40][41][44]. 3.3 Interest Rate Bond Market Review: The Bond Market was in a Weak and Volatile State due to the Central Bank's Bond Purchases being Lower than Expectations and Concerns about the New Fund Regulations 3.3.1 Capital Market - The central bank's OMO had a large - scale net withdrawal, and the capital market was balanced and loose. The issuance price of 1 - year national and stock - holding bank certificates of deposit decreased, and the weighted price of DR007 also decreased [11]. 3.3.2 Primary Issuance - The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [61]. 3.3.3 Benchmark Changes - The term spreads of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds both narrowed. The short - end yields of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds increased by 2.19BP and 2.51BP respectively, and the long - end yields increased by 1.88BP and 2.35BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrowed by 0.31BP to 40.97BP, and that of policy - financial bonds narrowed by 0.16BP to 33.68BP [55].