截止11-7，信用债ETF总规模4938亿元，单日上升28.7亿元，其中基准做市ETF下降2.3亿元、科创债ETF上升6.3亿元；加权久期 中位数3.3年。流动性：整体成交金额1694亿元，平均单笔成交额598万元（基准做市573万元、科创债630万元）；换手率中位 数33.7%。估值情况：收益率中位数1.84%，贴水率中位数-19.6BP（基准做市-31.3BP、科创债-16.7BP）。 上周债市受央行买债利好推动连涨3日，但之后受赎回新规落地传闻影响后开启调整模式，较多债券ETF遭遇单日大额净赎回， 但整体规模仍小副增长。规模排名靠前的基金分别是海富通短融ETF（690.73亿，保持第1）、博时可转债ETF（577.32亿，保持 第2）、富国7-10政金ETF（436.34亿，保持第3）、鹏扬30年国债ETF（334.44亿、保持第4）、海富通城投债ETF（268.95亿、 保持第5）和平安公司债ETF（239.04亿、保持第6）。值得注意的是上周信用债也开启调整模式，平安公司债ETF（511030）规 模却逆势流入4.70亿，究其原因与产品自身定位短久期（1.95年），静态高（当前1.90%），有升水（ ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "Three Resources and Three Transformations" reform in Hubei has short - term revenue - increasing effects and long - term transformation pressures on local finance, and also poses challenges to local government work and impacts on financial institutions [2][10][12] - In the credit bond market, the yields are differentiated, and different investment strategies are proposed for different maturities and types of bonds [5][13][17] - There are several key policies and hot events in the week, including the cooperation between Vanke and Shenzhen Metro Group, and the establishment of the Debt Management Department by the Ministry of Finance [25][26][29] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Hubei's "Three Resources and Three Transformations" Background and Impact - **Background**: Since 2021, due to various factors, local governments need to improve the efficiency of state - owned assets. Central documents have been issued to promote asset revitalization, and the "Three Resources and Three Transformations" concept was first proposed in Hunan and then introduced in Hubei [8][9] - **Government Measures**: The scope of asset revitalization includes state - owned resources, assets, and funds. The measures are resource integration, asset revitalization, and capital leveraging [9] - **Market Impact**: For local finance, there are short - term benefits and long - term challenges; local governments face problems in asset confirmation and market - based mechanisms; financial institutions need to support innovation and make prudent investment decisions [2][10][12] 2. Credit Strategy: Allocate Funds to Focus on Long - Term Credit Opportunities, and Trading Funds to Wait for the Opportunity to Play the Secondary Perpetual Bond Market - **Credit Bond Market Review**: This week, credit bond yields were differentiated, with 4 - 5y varieties performing well, and most credit spreads narrowing [13][14][33] - **Outlook**: Credit bonds should focus on the new fund fee regulations and the institutional year - end allocation market in mid - to late November [14][15][17] 3. Key Policies and Hot Events - Vanke signed a borrowing and guarantee framework agreement with Shenzhen Metro Group, with a borrowing limit of up to 22 billion yuan [25][26][31] - The Minister of Finance emphasized fiscal scientific management and local government debt risks [25][27][32] - The "Counter Bond Flagship Store" model was launched, and the Ministry of Finance established a Debt Management Department [25][28][29] - Zhengzhou supported the market - based financing of old community renovation platform companies, and Chongqing adjusted some administrative divisions [25][29][30] 4. Secondary Market - Credit bond yields were differentiated, and most credit spreads narrowed, with 4 - 5y varieties performing relatively better [33][34][35] 5. Primary Market - The net financing of credit bonds and urban investment bonds increased compared to the previous period [not explicitly described in the summary part, but mentioned in the table of contents] 6. Trading Liquidity - The trading activity of credit bonds in the inter - bank market and the exchange market decreased this week [not explicitly described in the summary part, but mentioned in the table of contents] 7. Rating Adjustment - One entity's rating was downgraded this week, and there was no entity with a rating upgrade [not explicitly described in the summary part, but mentioned in the table of contents]

周度报告-国债期货 市场多空交织，短期债市震荡 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货由涨转跌 国 债 期 货 本周（11.03-11.09）国债期货由涨转跌。周一，股市回升，国债 期货震荡偏弱。尾盘债市期待央行重启公开市场买卖而走强， 不过央行并未发布相关消息，现券利率小幅上行。周二，股市 震荡下跌，不过债市较为关注晚间央行买债情况，观望情绪较 重，期货全天窄幅震荡。尾盘消息称，央行 10 月公开市场净买 入 200 亿元国债，长端利率先上后下。周三，受央行重启买债 消息及海外风险偏好下降的影响，国债期货高开。但我国权益 市场低开高走，国债市场逐渐转弱。周四，市场消息面较为平 静，股指全天偏强运行，国债期货震荡下跌。周五，早盘期货 偏强，中午公布的 10 月进出口数据不及预期，但对债市影响有 限。下午市场较为担忧基金费率新规于近期落地，债市震荡走 弱。截至 11 月 7 日收盘，两年、五年、十年和三十年期国债期 货主力合约结算价分别为 102.472、105.920、108.475 和 116.030 元，分别较上周末变动-0.072、-0.145、-0.190 和-0.610 元。 ★市场多 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of the central bank's bond purchases in October was significantly lower than market expectations. The subsequent bond - buying rhythm should be objectively evaluated, and there is still significant room for the total scale of the central bank's bond purchases compared to overseas countries. The specific scale is difficult to determine, with a monthly purchase of 200 billion yuan being a relatively fast pace [1][2][3]. - The bond market's α - mining strategy has entered the middle stage. The market is currently focused on the implementation of the new fund fee regulations and their subsequent impacts. The new regulations may drive some funds with a strong preference for liquidity to redeem funds, but it is expected that the 10 - year treasury bond is unlikely to reach new highs [4][5]. - In the interest rate bond market, the bond market was in a weak and volatile state due to the central bank's bond purchases being lower than expectations and concerns about the new fund regulations. The central bank's OMO had a large - scale net withdrawal, and the capital market was balanced and loose. The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased. The term spreads of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds both narrowed [10][11][55]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Objective View of the Scale and Rhythm of the Central Bank's Bond Purchases 3.1.1 Overseas Reference - Compared with overseas countries, the proportion of the central bank's treasury bond holdings in its total assets and the overall treasury bond market in China is relatively low. For example, in Japan, the eurozone, Canada, and the United States, the proportion of central bank treasury bond holdings in total assets is over 60%, while in China, it is about 4.7%. The proportion of central bank treasury bond holdings in the total treasury bond market in Japan and the eurozone is 48% and 36% respectively, while in Canada and the United States, it is around 11.9% and 14.1%, and in China, it is about 5.7% [2][15]. - Historically, the proportion of the Federal Reserve's treasury bond holdings in the total US treasury bonds was around 9 - 10% before 2008, and it gradually compressed to around 10% near the end of each round of QT after 2008 [2][16]. 3.1.2 Scale Deduction - If the central bank's annual bond - buying increment is 1 trillion yuan, it will not be until 2030 that the proportion of bond - holding scale to the total treasury bond scale approaches the Federal Reserve's normal - state level of 10%. If the increment is expanded to 2 - 3 trillion yuan, this proportion can be reached by the end of 2026 [22]. - Currently, the central bank has a high degree of flexibility in bond - buying scale. It is difficult to directly compare with last year's level. A monthly net purchase of about 100 billion yuan is a neutral level, while a monthly net purchase of 200 billion yuan may lead to a smoother year - end market trend [25][26]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy: The α - Mining Strategy Enters the Middle Stage - Since October, the bond market has continued to fluctuate within a narrow range, mainly fluctuating around 1.8%. The market is currently mainly concerned with the implementation of the new fund fee regulations and their subsequent impacts [28]. - The impact of the new fund fee regulations is relatively controllable. It is expected that the 10 - year treasury bond is unlikely to reach new highs, but the regulations may drive some funds to redeem funds, with the estimated redemption scale being around 500 billion yuan. The impact on the bond market can be referenced to the small - scale redemption tides since the second quarter of 2025 [32][33][39]. - The 10 - year treasury bond is still in a volatile market, and the α - mining strategy has entered the middle stage. For perpetual bonds and credit bonds, short - term profit - taking is advisable, and the right - side allocation opportunities should be grasped after the redemption disturbances. For interest rate bonds, different varieties have different investment strategies. For example, local bonds with a maturity of over 6 years have seen a significant decline in their variety spreads, and the medium - term spreads still have some room for compression but are approaching the central level. The purchase of treasury bonds can be carried out in a dumbbell - shaped manner [40][41][44]. 3.3 Interest Rate Bond Market Review: The Bond Market was in a Weak and Volatile State due to the Central Bank's Bond Purchases being Lower than Expectations and Concerns about the New Fund Regulations 3.3.1 Capital Market - The central bank's OMO had a large - scale net withdrawal, and the capital market was balanced and loose. The issuance price of 1 - year national and stock - holding bank certificates of deposit decreased, and the weighted price of DR007 also decreased [11]. 3.3.2 Primary Issuance - The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [61]. 3.3.3 Benchmark Changes - The term spreads of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds both narrowed. The short - end yields of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds increased by 2.19BP and 2.51BP respectively, and the long - end yields increased by 1.88BP and 2.35BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrowed by 0.31BP to 40.97BP, and that of policy - financial bonds narrowed by 0.16BP to 33.68BP [55].

债市年末抢跑是否会启动？机构人士指出，2023-2024年年末存在农商行、基金、保险先后进场抢跑，且在"学习效应"下进 场时点不断前移的特征。类似于往年，今年宽信用预期扰动减弱，机构跨年配置意愿仍存，可能会再次出现抢跑行情，不 同的是，对于明年收益率下行的赔率预期不大，抢跑带来的收益率下行幅度可能有限。提示关注农商行"异常建仓"指标的 领先性。策略推荐：（1）短端：考虑大行已提前买债进行"储备"以及学习效应，下行幅度不宜高估，1y国债在1.3%是合 理位置。（2）长端：基金费率新规落地前或在1.75%-1.83%区间波动，费率新规落地后接近12月存在年末抢跑行情，收益 率或下行冲击1.7%。（3）把握结构性机会：11月为理财委外买债大月，利好3-5y信用债；摊余成本法债基迎来集中开放 期，利好5y信用债和5y政金债；根据利率债比价，把握中短政金债、7~10y地方债、15~30y地方债的品种利差以及30-10y国 债期限利差等凸点的利差挖掘机会。 在资金普遍流出信用债ETF的当下，平安公司债ETF（511030）规模却逆势增长1.02亿，究其原因与产品自身定位短久期 （1.95年），静态高（当前1.92%），有 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the bond market, specifically the trends and expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the performance of various financial instruments including government bonds and local government bonds. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Trends**: The bond market is expected to exhibit a "weak before strong" pattern in the fourth quarter, contrasting with historical trends. The market is anticipated to be relatively stable in October, with limited speculative opportunities due to weak positioning [1][2][3]. 2. **October Performance**: October 2025 is projected to show some recovery from previous declines, driven by adjustments in market sentiment and the release of prior pressures. This recovery is not expected to be as weak as in previous years [4][5]. 3. **Policy Changes**: There is a notable shift in policy consistency and proactivity in 2025 compared to previous years. The government is unlikely to announce significant new bond issuance in October, which may lead to lower interest rates in the short term [5][6]. 4. **Central Bank Actions**: The central bank and major banks are actively buying government bonds to stabilize the market. This strategy aims to prevent significant declines in market indices, although it has limited effects on other bond types [6][7]. 5. **Market Reactions**: Recent market declines were attributed to the introduction of new fund fee regulations, which may have been overestimated in their impact. The insurance and wealth management sectors remain stable, mitigating potential risks from credit loans and government bonds [7][8]. 6. **Investment Strategies**: Insurance institutions are increasingly purchasing local government bonds, viewing them as attractive investments due to their yield. This trend indicates a shift towards securing current yield levels rather than capital gains [8][9]. 7. **Long-term Bonds**: There is a divergence in market expectations for local government bonds versus 30-year government bonds. Local bonds are favored for their higher yields, while long-term bonds face skepticism due to their volatility [10][11]. 8. **Credit Bonds Sentiment**: The sentiment towards credit bonds is cautious, influenced by policy uncertainties and new fund redemption fee regulations. The market is expected to stabilize once these uncertainties are resolved [14][15]. Additional Important Content 1. **ETF Market Dynamics**: The second batch of STAR Market ETFs has seen rapid expansion, with significant inflows and a total scale reaching 2,474 billion yuan. However, some products still lack sufficient scale, indicating potential for further growth [12][13]. 2. **Future of Convertible Bonds**: The convertible bond market is showing resilience, with recommendations to focus on high-quality options that exhibit strong anti-drawdown characteristics. The issuance of convertible bonds is expected to normalize, with a focus on technology and undervalued sectors [16][18]. 3. **Investment Opportunities**: There are recommendations for strategic investments in sectors such as AI computing, consumer electronics, and low-valuation sectors like banking and chemicals, which have recently attracted significant capital inflows [18]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the bond market and related financial instruments.