2026 年煤炭供需展望 20251228 摘要 近期煤价下跌至低于市场预期的 2 元/吨，导致煤炭股下行，港口和坑口 价格均有所下降，但跌幅收窄，其中鄂尔多斯地区降幅较大（约 2.5%），主要受年底产量影响。 供应端方面，内蒙古和新疆年底增产显著，山西和陕西保持平稳。秦港 库存下降，但北方港整体库存仍高于往年同期水平。需求端受暖冬和新 能源发电增加影响，用煤需求不及预期，但预计随着冷空气到来将有所 回升。 焦煤方面，京唐港山西产主焦煤价格维持在 1,700 元/吨，蒙煤和澳煤有 所上涨。焦化行业第三轮提降落地，铁水价格维持低位。山西焦煤产量 平稳，国内焦煤供应依然紧张。地产预期改善和钢厂反内卷预期支撑焦 煤价格止跌。 投资建议方面，动力煤因股息率保护更具吸引力，焦炭板块虽处底部但 需等待明确向上趋势。动力煤公司股票表现受市场低迷影响，焦炭板块 因下游预期变化有所反弹，但趋势性行情需进一步观察。 Q&A 2025 年煤炭行业的整体情况如何？对 2026 年的展望是什么？ 2025 年煤炭行业整体表现较为疲弱，尤其是在传统旺季未能如预期带动煤价 上涨的情况下。具体来看，本周煤价跌破 700 元/吨，最终在周五跌 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Shanxi Coal Mining Industry Industry Overview - **Industry**: Shanxi Coal Mining - **Key Issues**: Strict safety production checks, significant impact on coal production, and price outlook for coal Core Points and Arguments - **Increased Safety Checks**: Recent safety incidents have led to widespread inspections across multiple mining areas, resulting in production halts in some regions, affecting approximately 50% of overall production [1][2] - **Production Capacity Reduction**: For instance, the Ma Daotou mine's actual output has been reduced from a peak of 15-23 million tons to the approved capacity of 9.1 million tons, indicating stricter control measures [1][4] - **Delayed Capacity Increase in Shanxi**: About 43% of the approved capacity increase in Shanxi is still pending completion, with actual production exceeding approved levels. The state has not enforced strict measures on unapproved mines due to Shanxi's critical role in national coal supply [1][6][7] - **Implementation of Reserve Capacity System**: A new policy mandates that 30% of new coal mine capacity be reserved, aiming to streamline the approval process and enhance traceability, though its effectiveness remains to be seen [1][8] - **Short-term Coal Price Support**: Factors such as downstream inventory replenishment, limited supply from production areas, and higher import coal prices are expected to keep coal prices strong in the short term, with thermal coal prices projected between 710-760 RMB/ton [1][11] Additional Important Insights - **Coal Price Expectations**: The coal price outlook for Q4 2025 and 2026 is optimistic, driven by recovering demand in non-electric sectors and ongoing production checks in Shanxi, with prices expected to stabilize around 740 RMB/ton for 5,000 kcal thermal coal [3][12] - **Inventory Management**: Jineng Holdings has significantly reduced port inventory from 6 million tons to approximately 1.5 million tons, indicating strong sales performance and supporting coal prices [3][13][19] - **Impact of Weather on Supply**: Open-pit mines, particularly in Inner Mongolia, face severe operational disruptions during rainy seasons, leading to reduced coal supply and overall production declines [10] - **Long-term Energy Demand**: Despite the growth of renewable energy sources, coal remains a crucial component of energy supply due to its stability, with no significant shift expected from electric to non-electric customers in the near future [16][17] Conclusion The Shanxi coal mining industry is currently navigating a complex landscape of regulatory scrutiny, production capacity management, and market dynamics. The combination of strict safety checks, delayed capacity approvals, and strong demand signals a challenging yet potentially profitable environment for stakeholders in the coal sector.