Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil market is under bearish influence due to uncertainties in US trade negotiations, which put pressure on the global economy, and the current off - season for oil consumption. Short - term oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. The recommended short - term trading range is between 445 and 470, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [8]. - There may be a significant oversupply situation in the oil market in early 2026, and if there are no supply disruptions caused by sanctions, the oil market is likely to face an oversupply next year [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Last week, crude oil prices fluctuated slightly lower. NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $59.84 per barrel, down 1.71% for the week; ICE Brent crude futures closed at $63.70 per barrel, down 1.36% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 459.6 yuan per barrel, up 0.20% for the week [5]. - OPEC+ continued to increase production by 138,000 barrels per day until December but suspended the planned production increase in the first quarter of next year, which alleviated market concerns about a rapid increase in supply to some extent. OPEC's crude oil production increased in October, but the growth rate slowed significantly compared to September and summer [5]. - API and EIA crude oil inventory data showed a build - up, which pressured oil prices. The US government shutdown, internal policy differences within the Fed, and the strengthening of the US dollar also affected oil prices [5]. - In the week ending November 4, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 19,336 contracts to 152,231 contracts. As of the week ending September 23, speculators' net long positions in WTI crude oil increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts [5]. - Trump said he was open to talking about lifting sanctions on Iran, but Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei remained tough. The main obstacle in the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West is the uranium enrichment issue in Iran [6]. 3.2 Related News - Market expectations for the Trump administration to win the IEEPA tariff case have cooled significantly. If the court overturns the "reciprocal tariffs" based on IEEPA, it may trigger a trading boom, but the market boost may be short - lived [6]. 3.3 Outlook - Due to uncertainties in US trade negotiations and the off - season for oil consumption, the oil market is bearish. Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for Asian customers by $1.20 per barrel in December. Short - term oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 445 - 470, and long - term investors should wait and see [8]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties decreased last week. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd dropped from $65.55 to $64.80, a decline of 1.15% [10]. - **Inventory data**: - **Cushing inventory**: Fluctuated from August 15 to October 31, with an increase of 419,000 barrels on August 15 and a decrease of 838,000 barrels on August 22 [12]. - **EIA inventory**: Also fluctuated during the period from August 29 to October 31, with an increase of 2.415 million barrels on August 29 and a decrease of 9.285 million barrels on September 12 [13]. 3.5持仓数据 - **CFTC fund net long positions**: Fluctuated from August 12 to September 23. For example, on August 12, the net long position was 116,742 contracts, a decrease of 25,087 contracts compared to the previous period [20]. - **ICE fund net long positions**: Fluctuated from September 2 to November 4. For example, on September 2, the net long position was 251,054 contracts, an increase of 44,511 contracts compared to the previous period. As of November 4, it decreased by 19,336 contracts to 152,231 contracts [21].

2025.11. 08 他解释称，美联储资产负债表策略的"下一步"是评估储备水平是否已从"略高于充足"转为"充足"。一 旦达到该状态，美联储将逐步恢复净购买资产的进程。 他强调，这些债券购买属于美联储"充足准备金框架"下的既定措施，是一项计划已久的流动性管理行 动，而非新的刺激政策。 "我们的目标是确保银行体系和短期资金市场顺畅运作，而不是刺激经济活动，"威廉姆斯说。 回购市场压力上升 本文字数：1239，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间11月7日，美国纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）在德国法兰克福出 席欧洲央行货币市场会议时表示，美联储可能很快考虑重新开始扩大其证券持有规模。这一表态意味 着，在连续两年缩表之后，美联储正接近"流动性补给"的新阶段。 就在一周前，美联储宣布将于12月1日正式结束资产负债表缩减（Quantitative Tightening, QT）计 划。威廉姆斯的发言随即引发市场关注。分析人士认为，美联储此举并非转向宽松，而是出于准备金 管理的技术性考虑。 维持"充足准备金"水平 威廉姆斯表示，即便未来启动美联储"储备管理式"债券购买 ...

当地时间11月7日，美国纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）在德国法兰克福出席欧 洲央行货币市场会议时表示，美联储可能很快考虑重新开始扩大其证券持有规模。这一表态意味着，在 连续两年缩表之后，美联储正接近"流动性补给"的新阶段。 另一个迹象是，银行对"常备回购便利工具"（Standing Repo Facility，SRF）的使用显著上升。自10月中 旬以来，SRF使用频率创下2021年设立以来最高纪录，上周有两天借款规模超过100亿美元。 就在一周前，美联储宣布将于12月1日正式结束资产负债表缩减（Quantitative Tightening, QT）计划。威 廉姆斯的发言随即引发市场关注。分析人士认为，美联储此举并非转向宽松，而是出于准备金管理的技 术性考虑。 维持"充足准备金"水平 威廉姆斯表示，即便未来启动美联储"储备管理式"债券购买，其目的在于维持银行体系准备金处于"充 足水平"，并强调这类操作"并不意味着货币政策基本立场发生变化"。 他解释称，美联储资产负债表策略的"下一步"是评估储备水平是否已从"略高于充足"转为"充足"。一旦 达到该状态，美联储将逐步恢复净购买资产 ...