当地时间1月30日，美国总统特朗普宣布提名横跨政、商、学三界的"三栖精英"凯文・沃什（Kevin Warsh）出任美联储新主席。 这一"超预期"的决定，引爆全球金融市场。 COMEX黄金单日暴跌8.35%，创近40年来最大跌幅，短短数日跌去上千美元；美元指数则强势拉升超1%。 这位坚定的量化宽松（QE）批评者，是如何打动了要求美联储加大"印钞"力度的特朗普？ 这位被特朗普盛赞"可能是最好的"候选人，如何让自己"降息+缩表"这一自相矛盾的政策主张自圆其说？ 认为人工智能（AI）是抵抗通胀武器的他，是否会兑现降息承诺？ 美联储若不再做美债"大买家"，全球流动性将迎怎样的重构？ 特朗普"意外提名"引爆全球 美联储新掌门是谁？ 凯文•沃什获得提名，被市场普遍视为"超预期"，因为在此之前的热门人选是纯粹的"鸽派"人物，他们的政策主张更侧重于激进降息，以迎合特朗普的政 治诉求。 沃什虽然也支持降息，但他更是一位坚定的"过度量化宽松（QE）批评者"，长期以来一直主张缩减美联储庞大的资产负债表。 | 政策维度 | 历史观点 | 近年观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | (任职美联储理事时期 | (特朗普首 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil market is under bearish influence due to uncertainties in US trade negotiations, which put pressure on the global economy, and the current off - season for oil consumption. Short - term oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. The recommended short - term trading range is between 445 and 470, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [8]. - There may be a significant oversupply situation in the oil market in early 2026, and if there are no supply disruptions caused by sanctions, the oil market is likely to face an oversupply next year [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Last week, crude oil prices fluctuated slightly lower. NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $59.84 per barrel, down 1.71% for the week; ICE Brent crude futures closed at $63.70 per barrel, down 1.36% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 459.6 yuan per barrel, up 0.20% for the week [5]. - OPEC+ continued to increase production by 138,000 barrels per day until December but suspended the planned production increase in the first quarter of next year, which alleviated market concerns about a rapid increase in supply to some extent. OPEC's crude oil production increased in October, but the growth rate slowed significantly compared to September and summer [5]. - API and EIA crude oil inventory data showed a build - up, which pressured oil prices. The US government shutdown, internal policy differences within the Fed, and the strengthening of the US dollar also affected oil prices [5]. - In the week ending November 4, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 19,336 contracts to 152,231 contracts. As of the week ending September 23, speculators' net long positions in WTI crude oil increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts [5]. - Trump said he was open to talking about lifting sanctions on Iran, but Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei remained tough. The main obstacle in the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West is the uranium enrichment issue in Iran [6]. 3.2 Related News - Market expectations for the Trump administration to win the IEEPA tariff case have cooled significantly. If the court overturns the "reciprocal tariffs" based on IEEPA, it may trigger a trading boom, but the market boost may be short - lived [6]. 3.3 Outlook - Due to uncertainties in US trade negotiations and the off - season for oil consumption, the oil market is bearish. Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for Asian customers by $1.20 per barrel in December. Short - term oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 445 - 470, and long - term investors should wait and see [8]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties decreased last week. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd dropped from $65.55 to $64.80, a decline of 1.15% [10]. - **Inventory data**: - **Cushing inventory**: Fluctuated from August 15 to October 31, with an increase of 419,000 barrels on August 15 and a decrease of 838,000 barrels on August 22 [12]. - **EIA inventory**: Also fluctuated during the period from August 29 to October 31, with an increase of 2.415 million barrels on August 29 and a decrease of 9.285 million barrels on September 12 [13]. 3.5持仓数据 - **CFTC fund net long positions**: Fluctuated from August 12 to September 23. For example, on August 12, the net long position was 116,742 contracts, a decrease of 25,087 contracts compared to the previous period [20]. - **ICE fund net long positions**: Fluctuated from September 2 to November 4. For example, on September 2, the net long position was 251,054 contracts, an increase of 44,511 contracts compared to the previous period. As of November 4, it decreased by 19,336 contracts to 152,231 contracts [21].