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关税谈判超预期下的电新板块机会梳理
2025-05-13 15:19
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the lithium battery and new energy sectors, focusing on the impact of U.S. tariff adjustments on these industries [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Adjustments**: The U.S. has frequently adjusted tariffs on lithium batteries and related products. The total tax rate for energy storage batteries has decreased to 40.9%, but if no agreement is reached in the next three months, it could rise to 64.5% [1][2]. - **Impact on Demand**: The reduction in tariffs is expected to marginally improve the economic viability of energy storage projects, particularly benefiting Tesla's North American storage demand, with projected profits increasing to $350 million [1][3][13]. - **Market Reactions**: Companies with significant indirect exposure to the U.S. market, such as those producing consumer electronics batteries, have seen stock price adjustments due to concerns over demand shrinkage and supply chain shifts [1][5]. - **3M Company**: Initially faced pessimism regarding its energy storage business due to tariff concerns, but stock prices have begun to recover as market conditions improve. Expected shipments for 2025 are between 670-680 GWh, with profits projected around $70 billion [9]. - **Macro Trends**: The U.S. accounts for approximately 30% of global energy storage demand. The tariff reduction is expected to lead to a surge in installations in the short term [1][6]. Additional Important Content - **Indirect Exposure Risks**: Companies like EVE Energy and others in the consumer electronics battery sector are facing significant indirect exposure to U.S. tariffs, leading to stock price declines [5][14]. - **Future Opportunities**: The solid-state battery sector is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity, with several companies expected to benefit from upcoming product launches and technological advancements [18]. - **Long-term Market Trends**: The U.S. renewable energy market is projected to grow, with wind and solar power becoming increasingly competitive. This growth is expected to drive demand for energy storage solutions [19][26]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies such as Ningde Times, Sungrow Power, and others are identified as key beneficiaries in the energy storage market due to their strong positions and readiness to expand orders [28][38]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic regarding the lithium battery and energy storage sectors, with potential for growth driven by tariff adjustments and increasing demand for renewable energy solutions. Companies with strategic positioning and adaptability to market changes are likely to benefit the most in the coming years [1][17][38].
关税82.4%!中美储能企业:博弈格局生变
行家说储能· 2025-04-07 12:00
插播 :3000+精准目标用户群,构建用户侧储能项目示范、精品展示及采购对接平台,2025全球用户 侧储能产业价值峰会暨应用示范展6月启幕!点击下方" 阅读原文 "了解详情 针对关税对储能行业影响,行家说储能整理行业人士、专家以及企业回应,业内观点主要分为两 类: 一种认为,此次加征关税对储能行业影响可控 , 一方面今天行业板块下跌与市场的系统性恐慌有 关; 另 一方面, 此次加征"对等关税"对储能产品税率相对可控,而且 中国储能产品输美渠道此 前已被围追堵截,中企已有预案进行全球布局战略调整。 目前布局北美市场的中国储能企业主要为 全球化战略企业,并没有重押单一的北美市场,对这些公司的整体营收影响较小。 阿特斯表示, 对于关税成本有 对于关税成本有多种分摊和协商的办法,合同有关税变化保护条 款, 会争取将关税的影响限制在合理可控范围内 。同时公司在逐步推进海外电芯和 储能 系统制 造,以应中国产品出口美国关税的不确定性。 孚能科技 表示,目前公司产品出口地区以欧洲为主,美国出口占比较小。同时在海外产能建设方 面,公司为 锂电池 行业最早布局海外产能的企业之一。 美国增加关税对公司经营影响程度较小。 另一种认 ...