Core Insights - The export scale of China's energy storage lithium batteries is projected to reach 200 GWh in 2024, with power storage lithium batteries accounting for 85% of the exports [1] - By 2030, the total export volume of China's energy storage batteries is expected to grow to 560 GWh, indicating a continued upward trend in the market [1] Export Breakdown - In 2024, the export proportions of different types of energy storage lithium batteries are as follows: - Power storage lithium batteries: 85% - Household storage lithium batteries: 13% - Portable storage lithium batteries: 2% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current oversupply situation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged, and the market has been affected by recent tariff shocks and weakening domestic energy storage installation expectations, leading to a continuous decline in the futures market. After the Sino - US tariff negotiations, there is a certain positive impact on the export of energy storage batteries, and there may be a rush to export, which could lead to a short - term rebound in the futures market. However, in the medium term, domestic energy storage installation may still weaken, and the oversupply situation persists [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 12, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2507 opened at 63,720 yuan/ton and closed at 64,040 yuan/ton, up 0.53% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 313,934 lots, and the open interest was 284,331 lots, a decrease of 5,972 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 466,523 lots, a decrease of 3,011 lots from the previous day. The total trading volume of the day's contracts increased by 49,634 lots compared to the previous day, and the overall speculation degree was 0.86. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 36,194 lots, a decrease of 157 lots from the previous day. The futures showed a trend of falling first and then rebounding, but the upward momentum was insufficient [1]. - As of May 8, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,500 - 67,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,400 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,100 - 64,100 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 1,400 yuan/ton from the previous day. The downstream procurement willingness is weak, and the overall demand is mainly met by customer - supplied and long - term agreements. Although some upstream lithium salt plants have cut production or stopped production due to cost pressure, the mining end has not significantly reduced production, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged [2]. - After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the tariff was adjusted. For lithium carbonate, the direct export of lithium carbonate is relatively small, mainly in the form of lithium batteries and new energy vehicles. From January to April, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 444.6 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 67.1%. The cumulative export was 83.9 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 83.2%, accounting for 20.8% of the cumulative sales in the first four months. Among them, the cumulative export of power batteries was 52.3 GWh, accounting for 62.3% of the total export volume, with a year - on - year increase of 28.9%; the cumulative export volume of other batteries was 31.6 GWh, accounting for 37.7% of the total export volume. The United States is the largest export market for Chinese lithium - ion batteries, accounting for 20.2% of China's total lithium - ion exports. From January to April, the production of new energy vehicles was 4.429 million, of which 642,000 were exported, accounting for 14.50%, and very few were exported to the United States [3]. Strategy - For lithium carbonate, short - term short positions can take profit. If the price rebounds significantly, sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices. There are no strategies for inter - delivery spread, inter - commodity spread, spot - futures, and options [4].