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周观点1123:储锂高增逻辑持续,重视风电业绩催化-20251124
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-24 11:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The logic for high growth in lithium storage continues, with a focus on performance catalysts in the wind power sector [1]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for energy storage and power equipment, with lithium supply remaining tight and the logic for wind and solar power remaining intact [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Photovoltaics - The industry is currently in a weak seasonal phase, but the core catalyst remains the anti-involution policy, with expectations for capacity control measures to be implemented by the end of the year [15][40]. - The "Chengdu Declaration" was released at the 2025 International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference, emphasizing the importance of anti-involution strategies and high-quality development [22]. - The price of polysilicon remains stable, while silicon wafer prices are declining due to weak demand and inventory pressure [28][34]. 2. Energy Storage - The report highlights ongoing domestic and international developments in energy storage, with a strong outlook for sustained high growth [45]. - In October, domestic energy storage added 1.70 GW/3.52 GWh, with a cumulative increase of 34.07 GW/85.71 GWh year-to-date, reflecting a 56% year-on-year growth [50]. - Significant projects include a 1.6 GWh energy storage project in Germany and new market mechanisms being established in various regions [47][48]. 3. Lithium Batteries - Demand expectations for lithium batteries are strengthening, with all segments showing a willingness to maintain prices, indicating a continuous improvement in profitability [15]. - The report recommends focusing on battery segments, particularly leading companies like CATL and EVE Energy, as well as other key players in the supply chain [15]. 4. Wind Power - The report notes a clear upward trend in the wind power sector, with the new five-year plan indicating a favorable cycle beginning [15]. - Companies like Goldwind Technology and Mingyang Smart Energy are highlighted as key players benefiting from this trend [15]. 5. Power Equipment - The report mentions the approval of five flexible direct current projects and a steady increase in transformer exports, indicating robust demand in the power equipment sector [15]. - Companies such as Sifang Electric and XJ Electric are recommended for their strong positions in the market [15]. 6. New Directions - The report emphasizes the importance of developments in humanoid robotics and domestic chip manufacturing, with a focus on Tesla's supply chain and the potential impact of NVIDIA's AI chips on the market [15].
国泰海通|电新:海博思创与宁德时代签订3年不低于200GWh的合作协议,阿特斯获海外储能大单
Core Insights - The article highlights the significant collaboration between Haibo Sichuang and CATL, which signed a three-year agreement for a minimum of 200GWh of battery cell procurement, indicating strong confidence in the future growth of energy storage [2] - Additionally, Canadian company Canadian Solar (Artes) secured a major overseas contract for a storage project, reflecting robust demand both domestically and internationally [2] Group 1: Industry Developments - Recent domestic energy storage policies have been favorable, with the National Energy Administration officially including new energy storage in the capacity pricing mechanism for the first time [3] - If the capacity pricing policy is promoted nationwide, it is expected to enhance the economic viability of energy storage across more provinces, thereby stimulating growth in the sector [3] - In Inner Mongolia, the independent energy storage discharge compensation is set at 0.28 yuan/kWh for 2026, which could significantly boost local energy storage demand [3] Group 2: Company Activities - Haibo Sichuang's agreement with CATL spans from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2028, with a total procurement volume of no less than 200GWh, ensuring supply according to company demand [2] - Previously, Haibo Sichuang also signed a strategic procurement agreement with Yiwei Lithium Energy for 50GWh of battery cells for the period from 2025 to 2027 [2] - Canadian Solar's subsidiary has signed a contract to provide a complete energy storage solution for the "Tianwang No. 2" project in Ontario, Canada, which has a scale of 411MW/1,858MWh, marking it as one of the largest energy storage projects in the province [2]