Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry [6] Core Insights - The concept of "deposit migration" is often misunderstood; it refers to the reallocation of existing deposits into other asset types, reflecting changes in residents' asset allocation rather than a significant decrease in total deposits [2][17] - Historical data shows that total deposits in China have consistently increased, from 120 trillion yuan in 2015 to 327 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with household deposits rising from 51 trillion to 166 trillion during the same period [2][16] - The report identifies a structural shift in deposit behavior, with a notable transition from corporate and government deposits to household deposits, and from large banks to small and medium-sized banks [3][21] - The trend of increasing time deposits has begun to slow down since 2025, indicating a potential shift towards a decrease in time deposits, similar to trends observed in Japan [3][4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Long-term Characteristics of Deposit Evolution - Domestic deposit balances have shown a consistent upward trend, with periodic fluctuations in growth rates. The structure of deposits has changed significantly, with household deposits increasing their share at the expense of corporate and government deposits [18][25] - The share of deposits held by large banks has decreased from approximately 70% before 2015 to nearly 50% currently, indicating a migration of deposits towards smaller banks [21][25] - The trend of increasing time deposits has slowed down since May 2025, with the proportion of time deposits dropping from 56.4% to 54.7% [21][25] 2. International Comparison of Household Deposits - The report draws parallels between the deposit evolution in China and Japan, noting that both countries have high savings rates and significant reliance on time deposits as a financial asset [34][35] - Japan experienced a long-term trend of deposit de-maturation, with time deposits decreasing significantly due to narrowing interest rate spreads, a phenomenon that may also occur in China [29][30][34] 3. Savings as the Main Driver of Retail Asset Management Growth - The retail asset management industry is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting that by the end of 2026, the net financial assets of residents will reach 26 trillion yuan, closely aligning with the anticipated growth in retail asset management [4][65] - The report forecasts that funds will continue to flow into insurance, wealth management, and public funds, driven by the relatively higher returns compared to traditional deposits [41][50]