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光伏产业‘内卷式’竞争
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光伏出清陷僵局,最艰难的日子还未到来
Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing severe challenges due to "involutionary" competition, with a focus on optimizing industrial layout and curbing backward production capacity [1][2]. Industry Overview - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for industry self-discipline and technological innovation in the photovoltaic sector [1]. - The market regulatory authority has introduced measures to address "involutionary" competition, highlighting the ongoing difficulties in the photovoltaic industry despite signs of financial recovery in some companies [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, 110 A-share photovoltaic companies reported a total revenue of approximately 1.38 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.96%, and a net profit of approximately -3.63 billion yuan, a decline of 100.25% [4]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw these companies generate a total revenue of 279.14 billion yuan, with a net profit of approximately 47.44 billion yuan, both significantly lower than the previous year [4]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - Many leading photovoltaic companies are experiencing poor operating cash flow, with JinkoSolar reporting a net cash flow from operating activities of 1.17 billion yuan in Q1 2024, down from -2.62 billion yuan in the same period the previous year [5]. - As of Q1 2025, the total cash reserves of 110 A-share photovoltaic companies amounted to approximately 429.25 billion yuan, a decrease of about 20 billion yuan year-on-year [5]. Market Dynamics - The industry is witnessing a significant increase in solar installation capacity, with a reported 104.93 GW of new photovoltaic capacity added from January to April 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 75% [8]. - Despite the surge in installation demand, the overall production capacity utilization rates for key materials remain low, with polysilicon and module utilization rates at 40%-50% and wafer and cell rates at 50%-60% [9]. Future Outlook - Optimistic analysts predict a potential profitability turning point for companies by Q2 2025, while conservative estimates suggest that true supply-demand balance may not be achieved until 2026 or even 2027 [10][11].