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光伏周价格 | 硅片、电池片受成本支撑难跌,组件受需求压制难涨
TrendForce集邦· 2025-12-11 09:02
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the photovoltaic industry, highlighting the weak supply-demand dynamics across various segments, including polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules, while also providing price trends and forecasts for each segment [5][8][11][13]. Polysilicon - The market is experiencing a "weak demand and increasing supply" scenario, with downstream crystal pulling factories reducing production significantly, leading to cautious procurement [5]. - Industry inventory remains high at over 450,000 tons, with a concentration among leading companies, which enhances their pricing power [6]. - Despite the supply-demand imbalance, the concentrated market structure and policy support for silicon material storage platforms provide price resilience in the short term, with potential for price rebounds if management mechanisms are effective [6]. Wafers - The market is facing a severe "double weakness" in supply and demand, with a rapid decline in downstream demand and significant price pressure from manufacturers [8]. - Inventory levels have surpassed 25 GW, primarily concentrated in the 210RN size, indicating substantial pressure for inventory digestion [9]. - Although some low-price dumping by individual companies is affecting price stability, prices are nearing cash cost levels, suggesting limited room for further declines [10]. Cells - The industry is adopting significant production cuts in response to severe supply-demand excess and rising silver paste costs, particularly among leading manufacturers [11]. - Inventory levels in the cell segment are rising, with turnover days reaching around 10 days due to insufficient downstream demand [11]. - Current prices are close to cash cost lines, with market stabilization expected due to high silver paste costs and the establishment of silicon material storage platforms [12]. Modules - The ongoing off-season effect has led to a noticeable decline in terminal demand, resulting in a significant drop in orders for module manufacturers [13]. - The price focus for modules continues to decline, with conventional prices dropping to around RMB 0.65/W, and some extreme low-price orders reaching RMB 0.62/W [13]. - The overall market is expected to remain under the influence of off-season effects, with limited price recovery anticipated in the short term [13].