Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market short - term trading is centered around whether the September photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and will gradually shift to the expectation game of "centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November". The polysilicon futures market has a relatively high risk level, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [2][3]. - The near - term trading logic (before November) shows a downward trend due to the failure of the photovoltaic platform company to be established in September and the weakening willingness of downstream enterprises to accept warehouse receipts. The long - term trading logic (after November) is that although the photovoltaic platform company will operate, the polysilicon market is still under the double pressure of "high inventory + weak demand" [6][7]. - The overall trend of polysilicon is expected to be a wide - range weakening in a volatile manner, with a price range of 49,000 - 56,000 [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors affecting the polysilicon futures price include the establishment of the September photovoltaic storage platform, the pressure of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, the stability and rise of component bidding prices, and the increase of photovoltaic grid - connected electricity prices [2]. - In the short - term, if the September storage platform is not established, it may lead to the liquidation of long positions. After the National Day, the PS2511 contract may face pressure during the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts [2]. - Fundamentally, the market shows "increasing supply and stable demand". The supply of polysilicon remains stable but there is still supply pressure, and the long - term demand depends on policies and grid - connected electricity prices [3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Wide - range weakening in a volatile manner, with a price range of 49,000 - 56,000 [8]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: - Unilateral strategy: Short PS2511 at around 56,000 [10]. - Spread strategy: Try reverse spread for PS2511 - PS2512 at around - 500 [10]. - Basis strategy: Wait and see [10]. - Option strategy: Buy put options PS2511 - P - 49000 or put options with a strike price below 49,000 under low volatility; sell call options PS2511 - C - 56000 or call options with a strike price above 56,000 under high volatility [10]. 1.3 Industrial Operation Suggestions - **Risk Management Strategies**: Different hedging strategies are provided for polysilicon sales, procurement, and inventory management, with different hedging ratios and tools recommended [11]. 2. Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: On September 15, 2025, the total photovoltaic bidding scale was 1991.66MW, and the total winning bid scale was 751.03MW [12]. - **Negative Information**: On September 19, 2025, Guangdong issued a notice on deepening the market - oriented reform of new energy grid - connected electricity prices, and the first - round bidding for incremental projects is expected to be carried out in October 2025 [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Focus Events No information provided in the report. 3. Market Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Market Review and Technical Analysis**: The polysilicon weighted index contract closed at 54,263 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.57%. The trading volume increased by 3.29% week - on - week, and the open interest decreased by 9.47% week - on - week. Technical indicators suggest a possible weakening trend [16]. - **Capital Trends**: The net long positions of key profitable seats in polysilicon futures have been decreasing recently, possibly due to the approaching National Day holiday [19]. - **Spread Structure**: The term structure of polysilicon futures remains in a contango structure, and the spread between contracts has little fluctuation [22]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main contract has strengthened in the past week, mainly due to the decline in futures prices [26]. 3.2 Futures and Price Data - Polysilicon prices such as N - type re - feeding materials, N - type dense materials, etc. have increased to varying degrees week - on - week. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different trends [28]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis - The overall profitability of polysilicon enterprises is improving. The spot profit of polysilicon has reached up to 10,000 yuan/ton, and the profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method. The futures profit rate is about 29.03% [30]. 5. Fundamental Data 5.1 Polysilicon Supply - **Production**: Domestic weekly polysilicon production has minor fluctuations, and the overseas monthly production shows a certain trend [43][45]. - **Import and Export**: The net export of polysilicon shows seasonal characteristics [47]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic weekly polysilicon inventory has decreased, with different trends in production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipt inventories [48]. 5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - **Production**: The weekly production of silicon wafers has increased slightly, and the inventory has also increased [52]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly net export of silicon wafers shows seasonal characteristics [55]. 5.3 Battery Cell Supply - **Production**: The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of battery cells show seasonal characteristics, with different trends in different types of battery cells [59][60]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly export of photovoltaic battery cells shows a certain trend [62]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of battery cells has increased significantly [63]. 5.4 Photovoltaic Component Supply - **Production**: The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic components show seasonal characteristics, with different trends in N - type and P - type components [66][72]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly net export of photovoltaic components shows seasonal characteristics [69]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of photovoltaic components has increased slightly [70]. 5.5 Bidding - The weekly data of photovoltaic component bidding shows that the winning bid capacity has increased significantly, and the winning bid average price has increased slightly [73]. 5.6 Installation and Application - The monthly new installation volume of Chinese photovoltaics shows seasonal characteristics, and the green power generation also shows a certain trend [76][78].