1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon futures price fluctuated widely this week. The core logic driving the price trend focuses on factors such as supply - side production suspension and resumption, downstream demand - side production scheduling, photovoltaic export rush, and anti - involution. The industry presents a "weak supply and weak demand" characteristic, with supply expansion slowing and downstream production under pressure. Due to the export tax - refund window in April, there may be an export rush for photovoltaic modules, but the overall market is mainly focused on inventory consumption [3]. - The polysilicon futures price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 28.63%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 83.6% [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The current polysilicon market is affected by supply - side production changes, downstream demand, export rush, and anti - involution. The industry shows a "weak supply and weak demand" situation, with supply - side production declining and downstream production also under pressure. The market is mainly consuming inventory, and attention should be paid to the anti - involution progress [3]. 3.1.2 Industry Operation Suggestions - **Polysilicon Futures Price Range**: The polysilicon futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.63% and a historical percentile of 83.6% in the past 3 years [9]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Risk Management Strategy Suggestions**: Different hedging strategies are provided for polysilicon sales, procurement, and inventory management, including using futures contracts and option combinations, with recommended hedging ratios [9]. 3.2 Market Information - On January 31 (Saturday), some leading polysilicon companies held a meeting to discuss polysilicon market - related matters. On February 5, a photovoltaic industry - related meeting was held to focus on capacity optimization and price order rectification [11]. 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Market Review and Technical Analysis**: The polysilicon weighted index closed at 49,536 yuan/ton this week, with a week - on - week increase of 5.06%. The trading volume was 12,451 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 47.72%, and the open interest was 65,885 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 10,229 lots. The PS2605 - PS2606 spread was in a contango structure, with a week - on - week decrease of 470 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,610 lots, a week - on - week increase of 190 lots. The futures price is expected to face resistance at 52,000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Option Situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility and the implied volatility of at - the - money options of polysilicon fluctuated widely in the past week. The option open - interest PCR showed a weakening trend [17][18]. - **Capital Trends**: The long - position scale of key profitable seats in polysilicon showed a stable trend in the past week [20]. - **Spread Structure**: The polysilicon futures term structure is in a contango structure [22]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main contract showed a slightly stronger oscillation this week, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of taking goods from the futures market periodically [26]. 3.3.2 Futures and Price Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic modules are provided, showing different price changes [29]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - The overall profit margin of polysilicon enterprises is weakening. From the spot market, the spot profit of polysilicon is declining. In terms of production technology, the profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method. The gross profit margin of polysilicon futures is about 26.99% [30]. 3.5 Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Polysilicon Supply - **Domestic Production**: The domestic polysilicon weekly production decreased, with the SMM - weekly production at 20,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50% and a month - on - week decrease of 15.55%. The Baichuan - weekly production was 19,220 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.78% and a month - on - week decrease of 27.14%. The Baichuan - weekly utilization rate was 31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0313 and a month - on - week decrease of 26.19% [38]. - **Overseas Production**: The overseas polysilicon monthly production and utilization rate data are provided [40]. - **Inventory**: The domestic polysilicon weekly inventory increased. The total weekly inventory was 589,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.63% and a month - on - week increase of 10.22% [43]. 3.5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - **Production**: The weekly silicon wafer production was 10.38 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 11.66% and a month - on - week decrease of 1.33% [46]. - **Inventory**: The weekly silicon wafer inventory was 28.32 GW, a week - on - week increase of 3.77% and a month - on - week increase of 7.97% [46]. 3.5.3 Battery Cell Supply - **Production**: The monthly production and utilization rate data of battery cells are provided, including different types of battery cells such as Topcon, BC, and HJT [53]. - **Inventory**: The weekly battery cell inventory was 9.17 GW, a week - on - week increase of 2.80% and a month - on - week increase of 2.80% [56]. 3.5.4 Photovoltaic Module Supply - **Production**: The monthly production and utilization rate data of photovoltaic modules are provided, including N - type and P - type modules [59]. - **Inventory**: The weekly photovoltaic module inventory was 24.7 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 5.36% and a month - on - week decrease of 17.67% [62]. 3.5.5 Bidding - The weekly data of photovoltaic module winning bids show that the winning bid capacity was 137.33 MW, a week - on - week decrease of 46.84% and a month - on - week decrease of 95.83%. The average winning bid price was 0.78 yuan/watt, a week - on - week increase of 1.30% and a month - on - week increase of 6.85% [64]. 3.5.6 Installation and Application - The monthly new - installed capacity of Chinese photovoltaics and the data of green power generation (including wind and solar power) are provided [68][70].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: December 09, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The price of the polysilicon main contract dropped significantly. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 54,545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65%. The trading volume was 157,970 lots, and the open interest was 79,367 lots, with a net decrease of 18,624 lots. The net long position of the top 20 decreased by 12,351 lots [4]. - The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 53,065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37%. The trading volume was 126,475 lots, and the open interest was 90,283 lots, with a net increase of 13,021 lots. The net short position of the top 20 increased by 9,699 lots [4]. - The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The recent operation of polysilicon futures prices can be summarized in two stages. First, on November 12, when the futures price was pricing in pessimistic expectations, the policy side issued concentrated statements to maintain price stability. After a rapid short - term decline close to the bottom of the range, it began to quickly reduce positions and rebound in line with the policy statements. Second, after the futures price continued to rebound, market funds once again engaged in a short - squeeze game due to the shortage of deliverable goods, and the futures price rose again to the upper limit of the range [5]. - Starting last week, the exchange first restricted positions to curb capital behavior and then expanded the deliverable brands to dispel the shortage expectation. The price trend is due to the same reasons. In summary, the recent operation of futures prices is not dominated by fundamentals. The supply and demand of polysilicon have both decreased. The production in December is expected to be flat compared with the previous month, but the weak terminal demand is gradually spreading upstream in the industrial chain. Downstream enterprises are reducing production and controlling output, and the market has not yet entered the active de - stocking stage [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells have continued to weaken recently. The industrial chain profits are concentrated in the silicon material end. It is difficult to pass on further price increases of silicon materials. Currently, the policy side emphasizes stability, and the fundamentals provide limited upward driving force. The spot price is stuck at around 53,200 yuan/ton. After the futures price adjusts back to the spot price range, it is expected to continue the volatile pattern. A more definite signal is needed to break through the range, and chasing up and killing down should be avoided within the range [5]. Group 4: Market News - On December 08, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,810 lots, an increase of 490 lots from the previous trading day [6]. - In the first week of December, the weekly polysilicon production was 26,470 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 18.43% [6]. - In the first week of December, the weekly polysilicon inventory was 291,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.82% [6]. - According to relevant regulations of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, Xinjiang Jinnuo New Energy Industry Development Co., Ltd.'s "Jinnuo" brand and Xinjiang Oriental Hope New Energy Co., Ltd.'s "Oriental Hope" brand have been added as registered brands for polysilicon futures, effective from the date of the announcement [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rise in polysilicon futures prices is driven by fundamental contradictions and changes in trading logic, with prices reaching 56,425 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5.27% [1] - Analysts note that the southwestern region has entered a dry season, leading to increased electricity prices and reduced operating rates for polysilicon companies in Sichuan and Yunnan, which has supported prices [1] - In November, domestic polysilicon production was reported at 122,000 tons, a decrease of approximately 15,000 tons month-on-month [1] Group 2 - The phenomenon of concentrated cancellation of delivery warehouse receipts has attracted market attention, as warehouse receipts with production dates beyond 90 days will be canceled, impacting futures prices [2] - Analysts suggest that the supply-demand dynamics are changing, with a low inventory of standard delivery products and a slowdown in the speed of warehouse receipts due to reduced operating rates [2] - There is a notable shift in downstream purchasing behavior, with companies preferring to procure non-standard products, which may limit the circulation of standard products [2] Group 3 - The polysilicon market is currently experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with downstream operating rates declining and a projected 20% decrease in silicon wafer production in December [3] - Analysts predict that silicon wafer production will drop significantly to 45.7 GW and module production to 40 GW due to weak demand [3] - Despite recent price increases in polysilicon, these have not translated to the component segment, and the midstream prices are softening, indicating insufficient effective demand [3] Group 4 - As of November 28, polysilicon inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 281,000 tons, indicating a continued accumulation despite production declines, which reflects weak demand [3] - Analysts believe that while there are production cuts in the silicon material segment, overall supply remains ample, and the outlook for polysilicon prices is limited in the short term [3] - The market is expected to return to a range-bound oscillation if the core contradictions shift [3] Group 5 - The basic fundamentals of polysilicon remain weak due to ongoing declines in terminal demand and increasing losses in downstream sectors, although cost support is still effective [4] - The uncertainty surrounding the implementation of "anti-involution" policies and the actual rollout of incremental policies should be monitored [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in polysilicon futures prices is attributed to fundamental contradictions and changes in trading logic, with prices supported by reduced production and demand dynamics in the market [2][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - Polysilicon futures saw multiple contracts strengthen, with the near-month 2512 contract briefly surpassing 60,000 yuan/ton, and the main 2601 contract closing at 56,425 yuan/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 5.27% [2]. - As of November 28, the average price of N-type dense polysilicon remained stable at 50,000 yuan/ton, indicating that price increases have not yet translated to the component segment [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of polysilicon has contracted, with domestic production in November reported at 122,000 tons, a decrease of approximately 15,000 tons month-on-month [2]. - Downstream demand is showing signs of weakness, with expectations of a 20% decrease in overall silicon wafer production in December, and a significant drop in component production to 40 GW [4]. - Despite a reduction in production, polysilicon inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 281,000 tons as of November 28, indicating a persistent accumulation in the market [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while there are cost supports in place, the overall market remains weak, with limited upward price potential in the short term due to abundant supply and lackluster demand [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding the implementation of "anti-involution" policies and their impact on market dynamics is a point of concern for future price movements [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The overall start - up rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak gradually, and the supply - side pressure will gradually ease. The industry is in a wide - range shock stage with no significant driver currently [4]. - Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy boosting market sentiment and limited downward space for costs [4][5]. - Negative factors involve the weakening of demand due to downstream industrial integration or production - cut measures in the polysilicon industry [5]. Polysilicon - The short - term trading focus is on whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and then it will shift to the expectation game of the November warehouse receipt cancellation. High volatility and risks are present, and investors are advised to be cautious [7][8]. - Positive factors include potential industry capacity integration and clearance plans [9]. - Negative factors are the possible continuous inventory accumulation if the integration and clearance plans fail to materialize [9]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8885 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 255 yuan (- 2.79%) and a weekly decrease of 70 yuan (- 0.78%) [10]. - The trading volume and open interest of the main contract and weighted index contract have different changes, and the warehouse receipt quantity is 46161 lots, with a daily decrease of 1092 lots (- 2.31%) and a weekly decrease of 2024 lots (- 4.20%) [10]. Spot Data - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have different changes, with some remaining stable and some showing small increases [17]. - The prices of mid - stream industrial silicon powder and downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, organic silicon DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12 also have different trends [17]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipt quantity is 45823 lots, a decrease of 338 lots (- 0.12%) compared to the previous period. The warehouse receipt quantities in different delivery warehouses have different changes [29]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 53715 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 2350 yuan (- 4.19%) and a weekly decrease of 640 yuan (- 1.18%) [30]. - The trading volume and open interest of the main contract and weighted index contract have different changes, and the warehouse receipt quantity is 9590 lots, with a weekly increase of 440 lots (4.81%) [30]. Spot Data - The prices of different types of polysilicon, N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have different changes, with some remaining stable and some showing small increases or decreases [42][44]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 1705 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2340 yuan (- 57.85%) and a weekly increase of 10 yuan (0.59%) [53]. - The total warehouse receipt quantity of polysilicon remains unchanged at 9590 lots [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market short - term trading is centered around whether the September photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and will gradually shift to the expectation game of "centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November". The polysilicon futures market has a relatively high risk level, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [2][3]. - The near - term trading logic (before November) shows a downward trend due to the failure of the photovoltaic platform company to be established in September and the weakening willingness of downstream enterprises to accept warehouse receipts. The long - term trading logic (after November) is that although the photovoltaic platform company will operate, the polysilicon market is still under the double pressure of "high inventory + weak demand" [6][7]. - The overall trend of polysilicon is expected to be a wide - range weakening in a volatile manner, with a price range of 49,000 - 56,000 [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors affecting the polysilicon futures price include the establishment of the September photovoltaic storage platform, the pressure of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, the stability and rise of component bidding prices, and the increase of photovoltaic grid - connected electricity prices [2]. - In the short - term, if the September storage platform is not established, it may lead to the liquidation of long positions. After the National Day, the PS2511 contract may face pressure during the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts [2]. - Fundamentally, the market shows "increasing supply and stable demand". The supply of polysilicon remains stable but there is still supply pressure, and the long - term demand depends on policies and grid - connected electricity prices [3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Wide - range weakening in a volatile manner, with a price range of 49,000 - 56,000 [8]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: - Unilateral strategy: Short PS2511 at around 56,000 [10]. - Spread strategy: Try reverse spread for PS2511 - PS2512 at around - 500 [10]. - Basis strategy: Wait and see [10]. - Option strategy: Buy put options PS2511 - P - 49000 or put options with a strike price below 49,000 under low volatility; sell call options PS2511 - C - 56000 or call options with a strike price above 56,000 under high volatility [10]. 1.3 Industrial Operation Suggestions - **Risk Management Strategies**: Different hedging strategies are provided for polysilicon sales, procurement, and inventory management, with different hedging ratios and tools recommended [11]. 2. Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: On September 15, 2025, the total photovoltaic bidding scale was 1991.66MW, and the total winning bid scale was 751.03MW [12]. - **Negative Information**: On September 19, 2025, Guangdong issued a notice on deepening the market - oriented reform of new energy grid - connected electricity prices, and the first - round bidding for incremental projects is expected to be carried out in October 2025 [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Focus Events No information provided in the report. 3. Market Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Market Review and Technical Analysis**: The polysilicon weighted index contract closed at 54,263 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.57%. The trading volume increased by 3.29% week - on - week, and the open interest decreased by 9.47% week - on - week. Technical indicators suggest a possible weakening trend [16]. - **Capital Trends**: The net long positions of key profitable seats in polysilicon futures have been decreasing recently, possibly due to the approaching National Day holiday [19]. - **Spread Structure**: The term structure of polysilicon futures remains in a contango structure, and the spread between contracts has little fluctuation [22]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main contract has strengthened in the past week, mainly due to the decline in futures prices [26]. 3.2 Futures and Price Data - Polysilicon prices such as N - type re - feeding materials, N - type dense materials, etc. have increased to varying degrees week - on - week. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different trends [28]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis - The overall profitability of polysilicon enterprises is improving. The spot profit of polysilicon has reached up to 10,000 yuan/ton, and the profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method. The futures profit rate is about 29.03% [30]. 5. Fundamental Data 5.1 Polysilicon Supply - **Production**: Domestic weekly polysilicon production has minor fluctuations, and the overseas monthly production shows a certain trend [43][45]. - **Import and Export**: The net export of polysilicon shows seasonal characteristics [47]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic weekly polysilicon inventory has decreased, with different trends in production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipt inventories [48]. 5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - **Production**: The weekly production of silicon wafers has increased slightly, and the inventory has also increased [52]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly net export of silicon wafers shows seasonal characteristics [55]. 5.3 Battery Cell Supply - **Production**: The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of battery cells show seasonal characteristics, with different trends in different types of battery cells [59][60]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly export of photovoltaic battery cells shows a certain trend [62]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of battery cells has increased significantly [63]. 5.4 Photovoltaic Component Supply - **Production**: The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic components show seasonal characteristics, with different trends in N - type and P - type components [66][72]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly net export of photovoltaic components shows seasonal characteristics [69]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of photovoltaic components has increased slightly [70]. 5.5 Bidding - The weekly data of photovoltaic component bidding shows that the winning bid capacity has increased significantly, and the winning bid average price has increased slightly [73]. 5.6 Installation and Application - The monthly new installation volume of Chinese photovoltaics shows seasonal characteristics, and the green power generation also shows a certain trend [76][78].