Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The overall start - up rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak gradually, and the supply - side pressure will gradually ease. The industry is in a wide - range shock stage with no significant driver currently [4]. - Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy boosting market sentiment and limited downward space for costs [4][5]. - Negative factors involve the weakening of demand due to downstream industrial integration or production - cut measures in the polysilicon industry [5]. Polysilicon - The short - term trading focus is on whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and then it will shift to the expectation game of the November warehouse receipt cancellation. High volatility and risks are present, and investors are advised to be cautious [7][8]. - Positive factors include potential industry capacity integration and clearance plans [9]. - Negative factors are the possible continuous inventory accumulation if the integration and clearance plans fail to materialize [9]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8885 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 255 yuan (- 2.79%) and a weekly decrease of 70 yuan (- 0.78%) [10]. - The trading volume and open interest of the main contract and weighted index contract have different changes, and the warehouse receipt quantity is 46161 lots, with a daily decrease of 1092 lots (- 2.31%) and a weekly decrease of 2024 lots (- 4.20%) [10]. Spot Data - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have different changes, with some remaining stable and some showing small increases [17]. - The prices of mid - stream industrial silicon powder and downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, organic silicon DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12 also have different trends [17]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipt quantity is 45823 lots, a decrease of 338 lots (- 0.12%) compared to the previous period. The warehouse receipt quantities in different delivery warehouses have different changes [29]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 53715 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 2350 yuan (- 4.19%) and a weekly decrease of 640 yuan (- 1.18%) [30]. - The trading volume and open interest of the main contract and weighted index contract have different changes, and the warehouse receipt quantity is 9590 lots, with a weekly increase of 440 lots (4.81%) [30]. Spot Data - The prices of different types of polysilicon, N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have different changes, with some remaining stable and some showing small increases or decreases [42][44]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 1705 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2340 yuan (- 57.85%) and a weekly increase of 10 yuan (0.59%) [53]. - The total warehouse receipt quantity of polysilicon remains unchanged at 9590 lots [53].

南华期货光伏产业周报 ——关注期货情绪，近期逻辑偏空指引 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年09月21日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周多晶硅期货价格整体呈震荡回落态势，多头减仓趋势显著，市场成交量逐步减弱。当前主导多晶硅期货 价格走势的核心逻辑，聚焦于以下因素：9月份光伏收储平台能否成立、11月份仓单集中注销的压力、需求端 组件招中标价格能否稳定上涨（即多晶硅涨价能否顺利传导至终端），以及光伏竞价上网电价能否提升。 从时间维度看，距离9月收官仅剩不足10天，若此前市场传言的9月光伏收储平台未能落地，将直接导致预期 落空，届时期货市场中基于该预期建立的部分多头头寸可能面临集中平仓压力，短期内或对价格形成压制； 国庆假期后，市场将逐渐进入广期所规定的11月份多晶硅仓单集中注销周期，若届时多头缺乏承接意愿， PS2511合约可能面临较大平仓压力，不排除引发市场剧烈波动。 从基本面维度看，当前市场呈现"供给增量、需求平稳"特征：供给端本周光伏产业上游多晶 ...