多晶硅日报 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 09 日 ...

此外，交割仓单集中注销现象也引起市场关注。"按照多晶硅期货的合约规则，生产日期在90天以外的 仓单将在每年11月的最后一个交易日闭市后集中注销，而新注册仓单需满足生产日期在90天以内的要 求。"中信建投期货分析师刘佳奇表示，在多晶硅期货仓单临近集中注销之际，交割仓单数量变化也会 受到关注，从而间接驱动多晶硅期货价格偏强运行。"在实际生产消费中，下游企业倾向于采购电子三 级质量的非标品，标品的流通规模或相对有限。因此，市场普遍关注硅料厂在销售配额有限的情况下， 是选择将有限的资源供应给下游核心客户，还是选择注册新的期货仓单。"刘佳奇解释称。 韩心阔也表示，当前市场供需格局有变，中间商硅料标准交割品库存占比较低，开工率下调之后，企业 出仓单速度明显放缓，可能会造成近月标准仓单供应阶段性减少。 从基本面来看，在供应收缩的同时，多晶硅的下游需求也有走弱迹象。据韩心阔介绍，随着光伏产业进 入需求淡季，当前多晶硅市场处于供需双弱的状态，下游开工率持续下降，预计12月硅片整体排产量下 降20%左右。广发期货分析师纪元菲也表示，在需求疲软的情况下，下游排产量大幅下滑，预计12月硅 片排产量将大幅下降至45.7GW，组件排产量 ...

上周，多晶硅期货多个合约震荡走强。其中，近月2512合约盘中一度突破60000元/吨关口。11月28日， 主力2601合约收报56425元/吨，周度涨幅为5.27%。 多位业内人士认为，当前，多晶硅期货价格上涨是基本面矛盾与交易逻辑转变所致。百川盈孚分析师韩 心阔表示，目前西南地区已进入枯水期，电价全面上涨，四川、云南等地的多晶硅企业开工率下降，多 晶硅出货量也明显下降，给价格带来了一定的支撑。根据百川盈孚数据，今年11月，国内多晶硅产量为 12.2万吨，环比下降1.5万吨左右。 此外，交割仓单集中注销现象也引起市场关注。"按照多晶硅期货的合约规则，生产日期在90天以外的 仓单将在每年11月的最后一个交易日闭市后集中注销，而新注册仓单需满足生产日期在90天以内的要 求。"中信建投期货分析师刘佳奇表示，在多晶硅期货仓单临近集中注销之际，交割仓单数量变化也会 受到关注，从而间接驱动多晶硅期货价格偏强运行。"在实际生产消费中，下游企业倾向于采购电子三 级质量的非标品，标品的流通规模或相对有限。因此，市场普遍关注硅料厂在销售配额有限的情况下， 是选择将有限的资源供应给下游核心客户，还是选择注册新的期货仓单。"刘佳奇解 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The overall start - up rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak gradually, and the supply - side pressure will gradually ease. The industry is in a wide - range shock stage with no significant driver currently [4]. - Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy boosting market sentiment and limited downward space for costs [4][5]. - Negative factors involve the weakening of demand due to downstream industrial integration or production - cut measures in the polysilicon industry [5]. Polysilicon - The short - term trading focus is on whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and then it will shift to the expectation game of the November warehouse receipt cancellation. High volatility and risks are present, and investors are advised to be cautious [7][8]. - Positive factors include potential industry capacity integration and clearance plans [9]. - Negative factors are the possible continuous inventory accumulation if the integration and clearance plans fail to materialize [9]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8885 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 255 yuan (- 2.79%) and a weekly decrease of 70 yuan (- 0.78%) [10]. - The trading volume and open interest of the main contract and weighted index contract have different changes, and the warehouse receipt quantity is 46161 lots, with a daily decrease of 1092 lots (- 2.31%) and a weekly decrease of 2024 lots (- 4.20%) [10]. Spot Data - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have different changes, with some remaining stable and some showing small increases [17]. - The prices of mid - stream industrial silicon powder and downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, organic silicon DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12 also have different trends [17]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipt quantity is 45823 lots, a decrease of 338 lots (- 0.12%) compared to the previous period. The warehouse receipt quantities in different delivery warehouses have different changes [29]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 53715 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 2350 yuan (- 4.19%) and a weekly decrease of 640 yuan (- 1.18%) [30]. - The trading volume and open interest of the main contract and weighted index contract have different changes, and the warehouse receipt quantity is 9590 lots, with a weekly increase of 440 lots (4.81%) [30]. Spot Data - The prices of different types of polysilicon, N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have different changes, with some remaining stable and some showing small increases or decreases [42][44]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 1705 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2340 yuan (- 57.85%) and a weekly increase of 10 yuan (0.59%) [53]. - The total warehouse receipt quantity of polysilicon remains unchanged at 9590 lots [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market short - term trading is centered around whether the September photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and will gradually shift to the expectation game of "centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November". The polysilicon futures market has a relatively high risk level, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [2][3]. - The near - term trading logic (before November) shows a downward trend due to the failure of the photovoltaic platform company to be established in September and the weakening willingness of downstream enterprises to accept warehouse receipts. The long - term trading logic (after November) is that although the photovoltaic platform company will operate, the polysilicon market is still under the double pressure of "high inventory + weak demand" [6][7]. - The overall trend of polysilicon is expected to be a wide - range weakening in a volatile manner, with a price range of 49,000 - 56,000 [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors affecting the polysilicon futures price include the establishment of the September photovoltaic storage platform, the pressure of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, the stability and rise of component bidding prices, and the increase of photovoltaic grid - connected electricity prices [2]. - In the short - term, if the September storage platform is not established, it may lead to the liquidation of long positions. After the National Day, the PS2511 contract may face pressure during the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts [2]. - Fundamentally, the market shows "increasing supply and stable demand". The supply of polysilicon remains stable but there is still supply pressure, and the long - term demand depends on policies and grid - connected electricity prices [3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Wide - range weakening in a volatile manner, with a price range of 49,000 - 56,000 [8]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: - Unilateral strategy: Short PS2511 at around 56,000 [10]. - Spread strategy: Try reverse spread for PS2511 - PS2512 at around - 500 [10]. - Basis strategy: Wait and see [10]. - Option strategy: Buy put options PS2511 - P - 49000 or put options with a strike price below 49,000 under low volatility; sell call options PS2511 - C - 56000 or call options with a strike price above 56,000 under high volatility [10]. 1.3 Industrial Operation Suggestions - **Risk Management Strategies**: Different hedging strategies are provided for polysilicon sales, procurement, and inventory management, with different hedging ratios and tools recommended [11]. 2. Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: On September 15, 2025, the total photovoltaic bidding scale was 1991.66MW, and the total winning bid scale was 751.03MW [12]. - **Negative Information**: On September 19, 2025, Guangdong issued a notice on deepening the market - oriented reform of new energy grid - connected electricity prices, and the first - round bidding for incremental projects is expected to be carried out in October 2025 [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Focus Events No information provided in the report. 3. Market Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Market Review and Technical Analysis**: The polysilicon weighted index contract closed at 54,263 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.57%. The trading volume increased by 3.29% week - on - week, and the open interest decreased by 9.47% week - on - week. Technical indicators suggest a possible weakening trend [16]. - **Capital Trends**: The net long positions of key profitable seats in polysilicon futures have been decreasing recently, possibly due to the approaching National Day holiday [19]. - **Spread Structure**: The term structure of polysilicon futures remains in a contango structure, and the spread between contracts has little fluctuation [22]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main contract has strengthened in the past week, mainly due to the decline in futures prices [26]. 3.2 Futures and Price Data - Polysilicon prices such as N - type re - feeding materials, N - type dense materials, etc. have increased to varying degrees week - on - week. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different trends [28]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis - The overall profitability of polysilicon enterprises is improving. The spot profit of polysilicon has reached up to 10,000 yuan/ton, and the profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method. The futures profit rate is about 29.03% [30]. 5. Fundamental Data 5.1 Polysilicon Supply - **Production**: Domestic weekly polysilicon production has minor fluctuations, and the overseas monthly production shows a certain trend [43][45]. - **Import and Export**: The net export of polysilicon shows seasonal characteristics [47]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic weekly polysilicon inventory has decreased, with different trends in production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipt inventories [48]. 5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - **Production**: The weekly production of silicon wafers has increased slightly, and the inventory has also increased [52]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly net export of silicon wafers shows seasonal characteristics [55]. 5.3 Battery Cell Supply - **Production**: The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of battery cells show seasonal characteristics, with different trends in different types of battery cells [59][60]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly export of photovoltaic battery cells shows a certain trend [62]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of battery cells has increased significantly [63]. 5.4 Photovoltaic Component Supply - **Production**: The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic components show seasonal characteristics, with different trends in N - type and P - type components [66][72]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly net export of photovoltaic components shows seasonal characteristics [69]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of photovoltaic components has increased slightly [70]. 5.5 Bidding - The weekly data of photovoltaic component bidding shows that the winning bid capacity has increased significantly, and the winning bid average price has increased slightly [73]. 5.6 Installation and Application - The monthly new installation volume of Chinese photovoltaics shows seasonal characteristics, and the green power generation also shows a certain trend [76][78].