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协鑫科技(03800):成本下降+价格上行,Q3扭亏为盈
Minsheng Securities· 2025-10-20 14:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of 960 million RMB in Q3 2025, marking a significant improvement compared to the same period last year and the first half of this year, primarily due to a tax benefit from the sale of an associate [1]. - The average selling price of granular silicon increased by 28% to 42.12 RMB/kg in Q3 2025, driven by industry initiatives to reduce competition, while production cash costs decreased to 24.16 RMB/kg, indicating a strong cost advantage [2]. - The company raised 5.336 billion HKD through the issuance of shares, with approximately 3.505 billion HKD allocated for supply-side reform and silane gas business, which is expected to enhance profitability and growth potential [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.997 billion RMB, 17.433 billion RMB, and 19.513 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be -950 million RMB, 1.530 billion RMB, and 2.393 billion RMB [4][6]. - The company is expected to achieve a P/E ratio of 24x in 2026 and 15x in 2027, reflecting a recovery in profitability and potential market share growth as industry capacity is rationalized [4][6].