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光伏周价格 | 终端需求疲软,光伏价格拐点将至?
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-23 05:34
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the solar photovoltaic industry, highlighting inventory levels, production trends, and price movements across various segments including polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules. Polysilicon - The overall inventory in the polysilicon industry is approximately 420,000 tons, with a continuing trend of accumulation due to high inventory levels at downstream crystal pulling factories and rising expectations of wafer price declines, leading to cautious procurement strategies [4]. - Major polysilicon producers in Sichuan and Yunnan plan to halt production in November, while new capacity from Xinte and Dongfang in Ningxia is expected to ramp up slowly, resulting in an estimated month-on-month decrease of about 10,000 tons in overall polysilicon output for November [5]. - Despite intentions from polysilicon companies to raise prices due to storage expectations and price control policies, actual transaction prices have not increased. It is anticipated that polysilicon prices will remain stable at high levels with limited market activity from November to December [6]. Wafers - Current wafer inventory stands at approximately 20 GW, with an increase of about 10 million pieces week-on-week. Downstream procurement willingness is generally low, and integrated companies primarily focus on polysilicon processing, leading to a slight decline in direct procurement demand [7]. - In response to market pressures, strategies among wafer manufacturers are diverging. Leading companies maintain firm pricing due to price control guidance, while second and third-tier companies are lowering prices to alleviate inventory pressure, resulting in an overall downward shift in wafer transaction prices [8]. Cells - Battery inventory remains at around 5-7 days, with a structural differentiation where 210 RN sizes dominate inventory, while 183 N sizes are seeing an increase in inventory due to declining demand from India. The 210 N size has very low inventory due to strong phase demand [9]. - The 183 N battery prices are declining due to increased low-price orders influenced by reduced demand from India, while 210 RN prices are expected to remain stable at low levels due to high inventory. The 210 N size may see slight price increases due to delivery expectations from a few concentrated projects [10]. Modules - Current demand for modules is weak, primarily driven by a few domestic concentrated projects, with distributed and overseas demand remaining relatively low. The 720W version in domestic concentrated projects shows strong demand, with prices generally rising above 0.7 RMB/W and good transaction conditions, although there is a risk of rapid price corrections after the delivery peak [11]. - Conventional module inventories remain high, with prices concentrated around 0.65-0.68 RMB/W, facing difficulties in sales. Overall, the weak terminal demand and insufficient order reserves for module companies suggest potential downward pressure on prices across the entire industry chain [11].