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航运衍生品数据日报-20260129
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-01-29 05:43
Shipping Derivatives Data Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The EC spot and futures market is in a game pattern intertwined with policies and geopolitical factors. The futures end is driven by short - term sentiment and then experiences a callback due to weakened spot support and calmed emotions. The spot market is in a balance of shipping company quotation adjustment and supply - demand game. The market core logic revolves around three variables: short - term rush - shipping expectations from photovoltaic export tax - refund policy adjustment, Red Sea re - navigation expectations from geopolitical easing, and the differentiated economic recovery in the eurozone. Currently, the market has no clear trend, with short - term being dominated by policy news and sentiment, and long - term depending on global foreign trade recovery, capacity adjustment, and terminal demand improvement [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Rate Index - **Current Values**: The current values of SCFI, CCFI, SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1458, 1209, 2084, 1294, 2896, 1595, 1859, and 2756 respectively [5] - **Previous Values**: The previous values of the above - mentioned indices are 1574, 1210, 2194, 1305, 3163, 1676, 1954, and 2983 respectively [5] - **Percentage Changes**: The percentage changes of the above - mentioned indices are - 7.39%, - 0.09%, - 5.01%, - 0.84%, - 8.44%, - 4.83%, - 4.86%, and - 7.61% respectively [5] 3.2 Shipping Schedule - **FAL1**: The last east - bound return ship passing through the Suez Canal is CMA CGM BENJAMIN FRANKLIN, expected to pass on February 1st with an OMIT detour. The first ship CMA CGM VASCO DE GAMA will resume east - bound return through the Suez on April 6th, corresponding to the Ocean Alliance's Day10 tenth - year route plan starting in April [5] - **FAL3**: The last east - bound return ship is CMA CGM SEINE, expected to pass through the Suez on January 25th, with no resumption plan currently [6] - **MEX**: The last east - bound return ship is CMA CGM GRACE BAY, expected to pass through the Suez on January 22nd, with no resumption plan currently [6] 3.3 Spot Price - **Current Situation**: For the European line 40 - foot container freight, GEMINI Alliance's Maersk Week5 quotes 2430 US dollars, Hapag - Lloyd quotes 2300 - 2500 US dollars; OA Alliance quotes about 2500 - 2650 US dollars, CMA CGM quotes 2793 US dollars, others are about 2600 US dollars; PA Alliance quotes about 2400 US dollars, Yang Ming quotes as low as 2200 - 2435 US dollars; N.SC quotes 2640 US dollars [7] - **Future Outlook**: In the next one or two weeks (end of January - early February), Maersk Week6's opening price drops to 2000 - 2100 US dollars, Hapag - Lloyd maintains 2300 - 2500 US dollars; OA Alliance may slightly drop to around 2500 US dollars; PA Alliance may fluctuate in the range of 2200 - 2400 US dollars; MSC may slightly adjust downward with the market, showing a pre - holiday decline due to the pre - Spring Festival cargo volume vacuum [7] 3.4 Strategy - Short - term short - selling has lower cost - effectiveness. Pay attention to going long on the 06 contract at low levels and short - selling the off - season 10 contract on rebounds [9]