与此同时，光伏行业自律进入新阶段，有消息称，1月6日市场监管总局约谈了中国光伏行业协会与通威 股份、大全能源、新特能源等硅料头部企业。据了解，会议主要内容涉及通报有关垄断风险、提出明确 整改意见并对企业做好整改工作提出要求等，明确整改要求，不得约定产能、产能利用率、产销量以及 销售价格；不得通过出资比例，以任何形式进行市场划分、产量分配、利润分配；不得对当前、今后的 价格、成本、产销量等信息开展沟通协调。 2026年伊始，光伏行业在政策层面迎来双重变局。随着光伏产品增值税出口退税的全面取消，以及业内 传闻的行业自律被官方约谈叫停，持续一段时间的政策呵护与隐性秩序正被撤去。 市场对此反应剧烈，多晶硅市场情绪降至冰点，1月9日多晶硅主力合约2605大幅下跌，大全能源 （688303.SH）、通威股份（600438.SH）等硅料股周内均是大跌。 这标志着中国光伏产业将彻底告别政策温床，产业正站在一个历史性拐点上。监管的约束与财税扶持的 退坡交织，将形成一个截然不同的竞争格局，其对光伏上市公司经营业绩的影响，意味着行业估值体系 面临重构。 光伏行业开年遭遇监管铁腕 财政部和国家税务总局日前宣布，自2026年4月1日起 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry in China is facing a significant policy shift with the complete cancellation of export VAT rebates and the halting of industry self-regulation, marking a historical turning point for the sector [3][4]. Policy Changes - Starting April 1, 2026, the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products will be fully canceled, transitioning the industry into a "no rebate subsidy" phase [4]. - The export VAT rebate policy, initiated in October 2013, has seen a gradual decline in rebate rates, dropping from 13% to 9% as of December 1, 2024, indicating a move towards the cancellation of rebates [4]. Market Reactions - The market reacted sharply to these policy changes, with the price of multicrystalline silicon contracts dropping significantly, and major companies like Daqo New Energy and Tongwei Co. experiencing substantial stock declines [3][5]. - On January 8 and 9, 2026, the main contract for multicrystalline silicon futures fell by 9% and 8% respectively, reaching a low of 50,080 yuan/ton [5][11]. Industry Self-Regulation - The recent discussions between the State Administration for Market Regulation and leading companies in the silicon material sector indicate a shift away from previous self-regulatory practices, which had aimed to stabilize prices through coordinated production and sales strategies [5][6]. - The new regulatory environment prohibits companies from coordinating on production capacity, sales volumes, and pricing, which could lead to increased market volatility [5][6]. Price Dynamics - Despite rising prices for upstream materials like silicon and silicon wafers, the prices for downstream components have not followed suit, squeezing profit margins for developers [9]. - The average transaction price for N-type multicrystalline silicon was reported at 59,200 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.83%, while N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers saw a price increase of 9.17% [9]. Demand and Market Outlook - The first quarter is traditionally a low-demand season for the photovoltaic industry, complicating the acceptance of price increases by end-users [10]. - The overall market demand has been weakening, with a decline in order visibility for both domestic and overseas markets as the year-end approaches [10]. Capital Market Impact - The shift in policy is prompting a "value reassessment" in the capital markets for the photovoltaic sector, leading to significant sell-offs and pressure on valuations [11]. - From January 8 to 9, 2026, the photovoltaic sector experienced a notable sell-off, with major companies like Tongwei Co. and GCL-Poly Energy facing significant stock price declines [11].