光伏行业供需改善

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直击行业痛点,六部门利好激活光伏赛道,反内卷先锋狂飙!费率最低档的光伏龙头ETF(516290)大涨超2%,供需关系改善,困境反转信号已至?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 10:32
Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a significant rally driven by policy support and improvements in industry fundamentals, with the leading photovoltaic ETF (516290) showing substantial gains in recent trading sessions [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The photovoltaic leading ETF (516290) surged over 4% on September 24 and continued to rise by more than 2% on September 25, with a trading volume of 40 million yuan [1][3]. - Key component stocks of the ETF, such as TCL Zhonghuan and Sungrow Power, saw notable increases, with TCL hitting the daily limit and others like LONGi Green Energy and Tongwei Co. rising over 1% [3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - A joint announcement from six departments on September 24 regarding the "Construction Materials Industry Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" highlighted a shift in risk management for photovoltaic glass production, which is expected to improve the industry's capacity utilization [5]. - The new policy aims to address previous issues of low capacity utilization in photovoltaic glass, which had fallen below 70% due to fragmented approvals, and prices for 2.0mm products had dropped to historical lows of 11 yuan per square meter [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global demand for photovoltaic glass is projected to reach 900 million square meters by 2025, with the penetration rate of double-glass modules expected to exceed 54%, driving a 23% increase in demand for ultra-thin glass [5]. - The industry has proactively reduced production by 30% since July, with inefficient capacity being shut down to stabilize supply and demand [5][7]. Group 4: Price Recovery and Industry Self-Regulation - The photovoltaic glass sector's "anti-involution" measures, including collective production cuts, have been crucial in driving price recovery, with prices beginning to rebound as supply-demand dynamics improve [6]. - The overall photovoltaic industry is witnessing a recovery in both performance and valuation, with the main components of the supply chain gradually rebounding from historical lows [7].