Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - After the end of the PV rush installation, the terminal has entered a demand vacuum period. The overall PV industry is facing challenges such as a decline in demand and a drop in prices. The report suggests a short - selling strategy for polysilicon futures [2][4]. - Globally, the expected new PV installation capacity in 2025 is about 511GW, a year - on - year decrease of 6%, indicating a continuous slowdown in the growth rate of installation [67]. Summary According to the Directory 1. PV Terminal Demand Data Tracking 1.1 China PV Installation Tracking - From January to March 2025, China's new PV installation was 59.71GW, a year - on - year increase of 31%. In March, the new PV installation was 20.24GW, a year - on - year increase of 124%. In Q1 2025, commercial and industrial distributed installations increased significantly, accounting for 52%, while centralized installations accounted for about 40% and household distributed installations only 9% [2][9]. - Policy factors such as the "430" and "531" rush - installation effects are expected to lead to a month - on - month increase in installations from April to May, and a decline in the third quarter, entering a "vacuum period". In the fourth quarter, there may be a conventional rush - installation effect, but it will be weaker than in previous years. The expected new installation capacity in 2025 is about 240GW, a year - on - year decrease of 14% [2][14]. 1.2 European PV Installation Tracking - In March 2025, China exported about 7.3GW of PV modules to Europe, a month - on - month increase of 57% and a year - on - year decrease of 21%. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 18.3GW, a year - on - year decrease of 13% [3][21]. - In the short term, the demand for PV module imports in Europe may increase in the second quarter. However, due to the weak European economy and the reduction of government subsidies, the overall PV installation growth rate in Europe is expected to decline. The expected new installation capacity in 2025 is about 71GW, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [3][23]. 1.3 US PV Installation Tracking - In February 2025, the new PV installation in the US was 3GW, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of 99%. The cumulative installation from January to February was 6.4GW, a year - on - year increase of 22% [29]. - Policy factors such as trade barriers and the new president's support for traditional energy have hindered the development of the US PV market. The expected new installation capacity in 2025 is about 32GW, a year - on - year decrease of 14% [3][32]. 1.4 Indian PV Installation Tracking - From January to March 2025, India's cumulative new PV installation was 7.8GW, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Local government subsidies have promoted the development of the PV industry. The expected new installation capacity in 2025 is about 35GW [36][37]. 1.5 Other Market PV Installation Tracking - PV installations in other markets are affected by policies and subsidies. For example, in Brazil, the cumulative PV installation from January to February 2025 increased by 6% year - on - year [40]. 2. PV Industry Chain Links Dynamic Tracking 2.1 Silicon Material Link - As of May 16, the price of N - type re - feeding material was 38,750 yuan/ton, and the price of P - type dense material was 34,000 yuan/ton. Short - term production is expected to decline marginally. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy for polysilicon futures [46][47]. 2.2 Silicon Wafer Link - As of May 16, the prices of N - type 182, 210, and 210R silicon wafers were 0.94 yuan/piece, 1.29 yuan/piece, and 1.09 yuan/piece respectively. The production of silicon wafers is expected to decline in May and continue to decline from May to June. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in demand [49][50]. 2.3 Battery Cell Link - As of May 16, the prices of TOPCon 182, 210, and 210R battery cells were 0.258 yuan/watt, 0.278 yuan/watt, and 0.265 yuan/watt respectively. The production of battery cells is expected to decrease in May. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory is increasing, which will drive down prices [53]. 2.4 PV Module Link - As of May 16, the prices of TOPCon 182, 210, and 210R distributed PV modules were 0.689 yuan/watt, 0.694 yuan/watt, and 0.684 yuan/watt respectively. The production of PV modules is expected to decline in May and June. The inventory pressure is increasing, and the prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the procurement demand during the year - end rush - installation in the fourth quarter [56]. 3. PV Industry Chain Profit Flow - The entire PV industry chain is in a situation of over - capacity. After the end of the rush - installation, prices across the industry chain have declined, squeezing profit margins. The inventory pressure in the upstream silicon material link is high, and it is difficult to support prices. It is recommended to pay attention to when downstream prices stop falling [59]. 4. Summary - The end of the "430" and "531" rush - installation periods has led to a demand vacuum in the PV terminal. China's new PV installation is expected to decline in 2025. The PV markets in Europe and the US are also facing challenges, and the overall global PV installation growth rate is expected to slow down [64][65]. - The PV industry chain is in a situation of over - capacity, with prices falling and profit margins being squeezed. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy for polysilicon futures and pay attention to downstream price trends and upstream production cuts [66].