Core Viewpoint - The solar photovoltaic demand in Q2 2025 has rapidly increased due to domestic rush installations, leading to a recovery in revenue and gross margins for major industry chain companies. Additionally, the easing of U.S. tariffs has significantly improved profitability in the U.S. market after companies streamlined their supply chains [1] Industry Chain Summary - The revenue of the main industry chain has increased, and gross margins have generally recovered, although there is differentiation among segments and companies. The downstream battery and module prices have risen quickly due to the rush installations, while the performance of silicon materials and wafers continues to decline marginally. Overall gross margin recovery is noted, but the increase in shipment volumes has not significantly reduced overall losses in the sector [1] - In Q2 2025, the output of slurry slightly increased quarter-on-quarter, but performance was heavily impacted by costs. The introduction of low-cost metal slurry production is expected to provide significant revenue and profit growth opportunities for slurry companies. The profitability of junction boxes, frames, and solder strips has been under pressure, while overseas production capacity for frames has shown strong contributions. Glass and film prices and profits have recovered due to domestic rush installations, with strong demand for centralized inverters and energy storage systems [2] Financial Outlook - The financial statements for Q3 2025 are expected to show further recovery, with a focus on the progress of reducing internal competition. Since July, the price of silicon materials has risen significantly, and downstream silicon wafers and battery modules have experienced varying degrees of price adjustments. The overall profit and operating cash flow for the sector are anticipated to improve further in Q3 2025, although the performance of the module segment may face some pressure quarter-on-quarter. Glass and film prices are expected to gradually rise above the production cost line of second-tier leading companies [3] Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include: - Silicon material segment: Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) - High-efficiency module leader: JinkoSolar (688233.SH) - New technology BC and slurry: Dike Co., Ltd. (300842.SZ), Juhe Materials (688503.SH) - Racking: CITIC Bo (688408.SH) - Glass: Xinyi Solar (00968), Flat Glass (601865.SH) - Inverters and energy storage: Deye Technology (605117.SH), Jinlang Technology (300763.SZ), Shangneng Electric (300827.SZ), Canadian Solar (688472.SH) [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported significant growth in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 8.372 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.41%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.83 billion yuan, up 49.26% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.273 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.66% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.23%. The net profit for Q2 was 1.122 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 73.22% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 58.47% [2][4]. Revenue Summary - The revenue growth in H1 2025 was primarily driven by the continuous acceptance of orders, with the revenue from process equipment and automation equipment accounting for 83% and 12% of total revenue, respectively, remaining consistent with the previous year [8]. - The domestic and overseas revenue contributions were 76% and 24%, respectively, indicating an increase in overseas market expansion [8]. Profitability Summary - The gross margin for H1 2025 was approximately 30%, a decrease of 2 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margins for process and automation equipment were around 28%, showing reasonable year-on-year changes [8]. - In Q2 2025, the gross margin improved to about 32%, with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 4 percentage points. The net profit margin for Q2 reached 26%, reflecting a substantial quarter-on-quarter increase of 9 percentage points [8]. Future Outlook - The company plans to strengthen its overseas market expansion by establishing subsidiaries in countries such as Japan, Singapore, and Malaysia, while also enhancing product safety certification coverage to improve competitiveness in international markets [8]. - The company aims to accelerate the mass production of new products and comprehensively layout high-efficiency technology routes, including TOPCon, HJT, XBC, perovskite, and perovskite tandem technologies, while actively exploring the semiconductor and lithium battery equipment sectors [8].

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨隆基绿能（601012.SH） [Table_Title] 国内抢装带动 Q2 盈利修复，BC 2.0 产能加速 投产 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 隆基绿能发布 2025 年半年报，2025H1 公司实现收入 328.13 亿元，同比下降 14.83%；归母 净利-25.69 亿元，同比大幅减亏；其中，2025Q2 实现收入 191.61 亿元，同比下降 8.12%，环 比增长 40.35%；归母净利-11.33 亿元，同比大幅减亏。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 邬博华 曹海花 王耀 任佳惠 申浩树 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490524120006 SAC：S0490524070005 SAC：S0490525060004 SFC：BQK482 隆基绿能（601012.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 国内抢装带动2] Q2 盈利修复，BC 2.0 产能加速 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The photovoltaic rush in May exceeded expectations, potentially pre - consuming a significant amount of the second - half installation demand. As a result, the subsequent consumer side may be difficult to sustain, and the market may continue to be weak. For industrial silicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [1][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On June 23, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2509 opened at 7375 yuan/ton and closed at 7420 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 303119 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 54184 lots, a decrease of 439 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with individual silicon prices in Kunming and Sichuan decreasing, while those in Tianjin, Xinjiang, and other regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The supply - demand fundamentals are weak. Although the explicit inventory has decreased due to many warehouse receipt cancellations recently, the total inventory is accumulating. The consumption side is average, with downstream enterprises making rigid purchases [1][2]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the market will oscillate at the bottom. For single - side operations, it is advisable to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises can sell on rallies for hedging [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis**: On June 23, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures continued to decline, opening at 31200 yuan/ton and closing at 30615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.30% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 78183 lots, and the trading volume was 88450 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, and the inventories of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The weekly output of polysilicon increased by 2.94% week - on - week, while the silicon wafer output decreased by 1.53% week - on - week [3]. - **Price of Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable, with a slight increase in the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm components [3][5]. - **Strategy**: The market is mainly trading on the weak expectation of subsequent installations and the production increase of silicon material factories. The market may continue to be weak. For single - side operations, it is advisable to operate within a range and sell on rallies for hedging [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the photovoltaic industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry experienced a significant decline in profitability in 2024, with total revenue dropping to 841.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.4%, and a net profit of -34.798 billion yuan, down 140% year-on-year. However, Q1 2025 showed signs of recovery with a reduced loss of -6.838 billion yuan, a 72.2% improvement from the previous quarter [1][19]. - The main industry chain faced a complete shift from profit to loss in 2024, while the supporting materials sector, including brackets and inverters, saw growth. Revenue growth rates for these segments were 39.6%, 37.2%, 31.4%, 20.4%, and 6.3% respectively [2][31]. - In Q1 2025, driven by policy-induced demand, the industry saw a recovery in performance, with revenue growth in segments such as junction boxes and battery cells, with respective increases of 21.7% and 17.0% [3][36]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The global photovoltaic market is projected to add approximately 530 GW of new installations in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%. In China, new installations are expected to reach 277.57 GW, up 28.3% from the previous year [12][19]. Segment Analysis - The main industry chain, including silicon materials, wafers, cells, and modules, saw a complete transition to losses in 2024. In contrast, the supporting materials sector performed well, with brackets and inverters achieving net profit growth rates of 40.4% and 4.6% respectively [2][31]. - In Q1 2025, the main industry chain showed signs of recovery, with significant reductions in losses across all segments, particularly in silicon materials and wafers, which saw reductions of 32.7% and 65.5% in losses respectively [3][36]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the recent policy changes have led to a slight recovery in prices across the industry chain, which may improve profitability. However, the overall industry remains in a state of overcapacity, and the sustainability of profit recovery is uncertain [4][39]. - Key investment themes include focusing on leading companies in the supporting materials sector, such as Tongling Co. and Yubang New Materials, as well as monitoring the rapidly evolving battery cell and silicon material segments for potential opportunities [4][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - After the end of the PV rush installation, the terminal has entered a demand vacuum period. The overall PV industry is facing challenges such as a decline in demand and a drop in prices. The report suggests a short - selling strategy for polysilicon futures [2][4]. - Globally, the expected new PV installation capacity in 2025 is about 511GW, a year - on - year decrease of 6%, indicating a continuous slowdown in the growth rate of installation [67]. Summary According to the Directory 1. PV Terminal Demand Data Tracking 1.1 China PV Installation Tracking - From January to March 2025, China's new PV installation was 59.71GW, a year - on - year increase of 31%. In March, the new PV installation was 20.24GW, a year - on - year increase of 124%. In Q1 2025, commercial and industrial distributed installations increased significantly, accounting for 52%, while centralized installations accounted for about 40% and household distributed installations only 9% [2][9]. - Policy factors such as the "430" and "531" rush - installation effects are expected to lead to a month - on - month increase in installations from April to May, and a decline in the third quarter, entering a "vacuum period". In the fourth quarter, there may be a conventional rush - installation effect, but it will be weaker than in previous years. The expected new installation capacity in 2025 is about 240GW, a year - on - year decrease of 14% [2][14]. 1.2 European PV Installation Tracking - In March 2025, China exported about 7.3GW of PV modules to Europe, a month - on - month increase of 57% and a year - on - year decrease of 21%. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 18.3GW, a year - on - year decrease of 13% [3][21]. - In the short term, the demand for PV module imports in Europe may increase in the second quarter. However, due to the weak European economy and the reduction of government subsidies, the overall PV installation growth rate in Europe is expected to decline. The expected new installation capacity in 2025 is about 71GW, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [3][23]. 1.3 US PV Installation Tracking - In February 2025, the new PV installation in the US was 3GW, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of 99%. The cumulative installation from January to February was 6.4GW, a year - on - year increase of 22% [29]. - Policy factors such as trade barriers and the new president's support for traditional energy have hindered the development of the US PV market. The expected new installation capacity in 2025 is about 32GW, a year - on - year decrease of 14% [3][32]. 1.4 Indian PV Installation Tracking - From January to March 2025, India's cumulative new PV installation was 7.8GW, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Local government subsidies have promoted the development of the PV industry. The expected new installation capacity in 2025 is about 35GW [36][37]. 1.5 Other Market PV Installation Tracking - PV installations in other markets are affected by policies and subsidies. For example, in Brazil, the cumulative PV installation from January to February 2025 increased by 6% year - on - year [40]. 2. PV Industry Chain Links Dynamic Tracking 2.1 Silicon Material Link - As of May 16, the price of N - type re - feeding material was 38,750 yuan/ton, and the price of P - type dense material was 34,000 yuan/ton. Short - term production is expected to decline marginally. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy for polysilicon futures [46][47]. 2.2 Silicon Wafer Link - As of May 16, the prices of N - type 182, 210, and 210R silicon wafers were 0.94 yuan/piece, 1.29 yuan/piece, and 1.09 yuan/piece respectively. The production of silicon wafers is expected to decline in May and continue to decline from May to June. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in demand [49][50]. 2.3 Battery Cell Link - As of May 16, the prices of TOPCon 182, 210, and 210R battery cells were 0.258 yuan/watt, 0.278 yuan/watt, and 0.265 yuan/watt respectively. The production of battery cells is expected to decrease in May. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory is increasing, which will drive down prices [53]. 2.4 PV Module Link - As of May 16, the prices of TOPCon 182, 210, and 210R distributed PV modules were 0.689 yuan/watt, 0.694 yuan/watt, and 0.684 yuan/watt respectively. The production of PV modules is expected to decline in May and June. The inventory pressure is increasing, and the prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the procurement demand during the year - end rush - installation in the fourth quarter [56]. 3. PV Industry Chain Profit Flow - The entire PV industry chain is in a situation of over - capacity. After the end of the rush - installation, prices across the industry chain have declined, squeezing profit margins. The inventory pressure in the upstream silicon material link is high, and it is difficult to support prices. It is recommended to pay attention to when downstream prices stop falling [59]. 4. Summary - The end of the "430" and "531" rush - installation periods has led to a demand vacuum in the PV terminal. China's new PV installation is expected to decline in 2025. The PV markets in Europe and the US are also facing challenges, and the overall global PV installation growth rate is expected to slow down [64][65]. - The PV industry chain is in a situation of over - capacity, with prices falling and profit margins being squeezed. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy for polysilicon futures and pay attention to downstream price trends and upstream production cuts [66].

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 2.67 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 65% to 42 million [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 720 million, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25% and a year-on-year increase of 6%, but the net profit was a loss of 27 million, reflecting a significant decline [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 718 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47.5%, while the net profit was a loss of 3 million, indicating a recovery in profitability [1] Group 2 - The company’s shipment of welding strips in 2024 was 31,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 20%, with Q4 shipments estimated at around 8,400 tons [1] - The gross margin decreased to approximately 4% in Q4 2024 due to market downturns and increased competition, but improved to about 6% in Q1 2025 due to domestic photovoltaic demand [1] - The company’s operating expenses for 2024 were 125 million, an increase of 11% year-on-year, with an expense ratio of 4.7% [2] Group 3 - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 33 million, 52 million, and 68 million respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 22% in 2025 [2] - The company is rated as "accumulate" due to expected continued pressure on profitability in 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026 [2]

Industry Chain - "Demand expectations" have weakened, leading to a rebound and subsequent decline in industry chain prices. The prices of silicon materials have slightly decreased, with N-type recycled and granular silicon prices at 41,000 and 39,000 yuan per ton respectively, down 1.7% and stable compared to the end of March. Downstream companies are prioritizing the consumption of their polysilicon inventory and delaying procurement plans [2][10] - The production of components is expected to reach 61GW in April, a month-on-month increase of 29%, driven by ongoing demand from installations [19][22] Demand - Domestic installations saw a significant increase, with 20.24GW added in March, a year-on-year increase of 124%. Cumulatively, 59.71GW was installed from January to March, up 31% year-on-year [4][24] - Exports of battery components reached 30.01GW in March, a year-on-year increase of 11% and a month-on-month increase of 53%, indicating strong overseas demand and low inventory levels [35][46] Procurement Data Tracking - The procurement volume in April has significantly narrowed, with the median price of N-type procurement contracts decreasing slightly by 0.01 yuan/W. The total procurement volume for state-owned enterprises was 42.4GW, down 8% year-on-year [5][59] Industry Events Update - The US-China tariff conflict has begun, impacting the solar storage sector and maintaining profit barriers in the US market. Recent trade policy fluctuations suggest that domestic demand support may strengthen further [63][66] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the demand resilience post-installation rush is expected to gradually validate the industry's growth potential, despite concerns about a potential sharp decline in demand [27][31]

行业动态 行业近况 3月13日晚，Alphamin Resources宣布[1]，已暂停其刚果（金）东部Bisie矿山的运营，目前公司正在撤离 所有采矿作业人员，仅留少量必要人员负责矿山的维护、安全和基本管理。据ITA国际锡协数据[2]，Bisie 矿是全球第三大锡矿，2024年锡精矿产量达1.73万吨，约占全球锡矿供应量的6%。 [1] https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HUHlEyQgT3QT2NryYF3i7A [2]https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HUHlEyQgT3QT2NryYF3i7A [3]https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/y8XwJ7PlaPS7Tk3dnpV8Ag [4]https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/y8XwJ7PlaPS7Tk3dnpV8Ag 锡交易所和国内社会库存较2024年高点大幅去化。我们认为，供应扰动或将推升下游产业链安全库存需 求，从而激化短期供需矛盾。 据iFinD，截至3月13日，LME、SHFE锡库存分别为3500、7082吨，较2024 年高点-57%、-60%，均位于近五年38%分位 ...