Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market shows mixed performance, with aluminum futures experiencing a slight decline amid various supply and demand dynamics [1] Supply Side - Domestic coal prices have increased slightly, while alumina prices have decreased marginally, and carbon block prices remain stable [1] - Guinea's bauxite mine recovery expectations have strengthened, and domestic port inventories remain high with a high operating rate, indicating an unchanged surplus situation [1] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reached 44 million tons, nearing the capacity ceiling, suggesting limited future growth potential [1] Demand Side - The downstream demand has entered the traditional consumption peak season, with increased operating rates and manageable inventory pressure for aluminum ingots [1] - Despite the resilience in aluminum exports, high prices are significantly suppressing downstream purchasing willingness [1] - Short-term focus is on market stocking demand ahead of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, while medium-term attention is on the growth expectations in sectors like wind power, solar energy, ultra-high voltage transmission, and new energy vehicles [1] Market Outlook - The seasonal recovery in downstream operations is expected to continue, with no significant surplus anticipated for the year [1] - However, aluminum ingot social inventories have not yet shown a turning point, necessitating continued monitoring of demand feedback during the peak season [1] - Current industrial drivers are weak, and aluminum prices face resistance at the March peak levels [1]