Group 1 - The main driving force behind the recent market rally is supply-side expectations of "anti-involution," which have led to price increases, while rising coal prices are expected to increase downstream electricity costs, potentially leading to supply contraction and further price hikes [1][2][6] - The market anticipates that fiscal policies will strengthen in the second half of the year, alongside urban renewal and major infrastructure projects, contributing to improved demand expectations [1][2][5] - Recent futures market trends show significant price increases across various commodities, with notable gains in coking coal, silicon, and glass, driven by supply-side reforms and demand recovery expectations [3][4][6] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a catalyst for the current market dynamics, with expectations of reduced low-price competition and the orderly exit of outdated production capacities [4][5][11] - Analysts express differing views on the sustainability of the current rally, with some optimistic about policy impacts while others caution about the need for alignment between policy execution and downstream demand [2][8][11] - The recent surge in commodity prices is attributed to a combination of supply-side adjustments and improved market sentiment, with significant price recoveries observed in various sectors, including black metals and energy materials [3][6][10] Group 3 - The coal price increase is expected to lead to reduced production in downstream sectors, further contributing to price increases in related commodities [6][7] - The market is currently experiencing a strong rebound in various commodity prices, with significant gains reported in coking coal and silicon, driven by both supply-side reforms and rising production costs [3][7][10] - The outlook for the commodity market remains mixed, with some analysts predicting continued volatility and others highlighting the potential for sustained price increases if supply-side policies are effectively implemented [8][11]