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山西汾酒(600809):省外超预期 经营韧性突出
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-03 00:35
Core Viewpoint - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q3 2025, driven by strong sales of specific products and successful expansion in external markets [3][6]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 8.96 billion yuan, an increase of 4.05% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.899 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.38% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 32.924 billion yuan, up 5.00%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.405 billion yuan, up 0.48% [2]. Product Performance - The growth in revenue was primarily led by Qinghua 20 and Glass Fen, with the company’s Fenjiu and other liquor revenues showing a year-on-year increase of 5.0% and a decrease of 28.6%, respectively [3]. - Fenjiu accounted for 98.2% of the liquor business revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points [3]. Regional Performance - In Q3 2025, revenue from the company's domestic market decreased by 35.2%, while revenue from external markets increased by 31.1%, with external revenue accounting for 74.6% of the liquor business [3]. Profitability - The company's gross profit margin increased by 0.34 percentage points to 74.63%, attributed to the rapid growth of Qinghua 20 [4]. - The net profit margin decreased by 1.78 percentage points to 32.36% due to an increase in tax and additional fees [4]. Cash Flow and Dealer Relations - Sales cash collection decreased by 2.53% year-on-year, but the company's contract liabilities remained high at 5.781 billion yuan, indicating strong dealer cooperation [5]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to perform well during the industry adjustment period, supported by its brand strength, product matrix, and channel management [6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 36.214 billion yuan, 37.935 billion yuan, and 41.019 billion yuan, with net profits projected at 11.826 billion yuan, 12.406 billion yuan, and 13.547 billion yuan, respectively [6].