国窖1573：预计经销商回款比例60%-70%，动销下滑30%~20%，低度国窖1573动销好于高度国窖 1573，公司持续控货挺价，低度国窖批价630元左右，高度国窖批价820-830元左右，库存占全年任务 30%左右。 申万宏源：中秋国庆白酒行业批价全面下行 消费场景仍然在恢复过程中 【中国白酒网】申万宏源发布研报称，结合2025中秋国庆白酒渠道反馈，预计2025中秋国庆白酒行 业整体需求同比下降30~20%，库存增加10-20%(全年任务量)，批价全面下行。从消费场景看，宴席表 现低于预期，有所下降，礼品需求下降，政商务场景环比改善但同比仍有明显缺口。展望明年春节，一 方面，当前渠道库存仍然较高，需要时间消化，另一方面，消费场景仍然在恢复过程中，需求仍然较 弱，且25年春节基数较高，预计26年春节动销仍有较大压力。报表端看，25Q2部分酒企报表开始释放 压力，预计25Q3报表端全面释放压力，可能会持续至26Q1。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 分品牌情况：茅台表现最优，五粮液以价换量，国窖1573控货挺价，汾酒结构平衡相对稳定，地产 酒量价承压 茅台：经销商回款进度正常，但部分大商9月货未发完，预计动销个位数 ...

分区域看，省份间延续分化态势，河南/山东/四川表现略好于预期。结合渠道反馈，河南、山东下滑双 位数略好于预期，部分终端有补货行为；四川动销下滑近20%略好于节前预期；湖南反馈下滑20%+符 合预期；江苏反馈下滑20%+符合预期，安徽反馈下滑20%-30%略不及预期。 分品牌看，茅五出货较好，地产酒降幅双位数，次高端品牌仍具压力。结合渠道反馈，茅五各地表现分 化但总体B端出货周转较好，1935保持正增长，老窖坚持挺价、出货量下降双位数；汾酒环山西反馈出 货增长；苏酒洋河动销反馈下滑20%+，今世缘反馈下滑双位数；徽酒古井动销反馈下滑10%+，迎驾下 滑双位数，口子窖仍在调整；扩张型次高端品牌持续受需求影响，舍得等动销反馈下滑30%+。 智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，白酒动销在假期前一周左右出现边际加速，后逐步趋缓，整 体预计下滑20%左右，符合节前预期。细分指标不乏小亮点：一是高端茅五核心大单品周转情况较好； 二是大众宴席需求相对坚挺，江苏/河南/四川有正增长，对应中低价格带表现较好，五粮春/红花郎等部 分产品有双位数增长；三是茅五价盘小幅下探后稳住，地产酒压货情况有好转。渠道库存方面，渠道压 货意愿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall demand for the liquor industry is expected to decline by 20-30% year-on-year during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with inventory increasing by 10-20% and wholesale prices declining across the board [1] Industry Summary - The banquet consumption scenario is underperforming, with a decrease in demand for gifts, while the government and business sectors show a month-on-month improvement but still have a significant year-on-year gap [1] - High channel inventory levels will require time to digest, and the recovery of consumption scenarios remains weak, leading to pressure on sales during the 2026 Spring Festival [1] Brand Performance - **Moutai**: Normal repayment progress from distributors, with a slight decline in sales expected. The price for scattered bottles is around 1780 yuan, and for whole boxes, it is about 1835 yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to before the holiday [2] - **Wuliangye**: Expected repayment ratio of about 70%, with a sales decline of approximately 15%. The current price for Wuliangye is around 810-830 yuan, with inventory levels stable year-on-year [2] - **Guojiao 1573**: Anticipated repayment ratio of 60-70%, with a sales decline of 20-30%. The price for low-alcohol Guojiao 1573 is around 630 yuan, while high-alcohol is priced at 820-830 yuan [2] - **Fenjiu**: Expected repayment progress of 70-80%, with stable sales for glass Fenjiu. The price for Qinghua Fenjiu is around 330-360 yuan [3] - **Real Estate Liquor**: Brands like Gujing and Yingjia are experiencing sales declines of 10-20% and 20%, respectively, with significant inventory levels [3] Investment Recommendations - The industry fundamentals need to stabilize, and the speed of channel clearing is expected to be faster than that of financial report clearing. Patience is advised for sector opportunities [4] - High dividend yield stocks from leading companies are seen as a long-term investment value, with potential short-term benefits from market liquidity and sector rotation [4] - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with attention to Wuliangye, Jiusiyuan, and Yingjia [4]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3883 | 0.52 | 0.64 | 1.59 | | 深证综指 | 2519 | 0.44 | 3.1 | 2.12 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.3 | 3.22 | 19.97 | | 中盘指数 | 1.01 | 6.43 | 27.65 | | 小盘指数 | 1.04 | 2.12 | 22.08 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源金属 | 5.91 | 24.79 | 66.07 | | 航空装备Ⅱ | 3.49 | -4.64 | 23.62 | | 小金属Ⅱ | 3.41 | -6.08 | 62.35 | | 医疗服务Ⅱ | 3.09 | 1.81 | 32.18 | | 航天装 ...

食品饮料/ 自酒中 行业筑底，保持耐心 — 2025 中秋国庆白酒渠道反馈 相关研究 联系人 王子昂 (8621)23297818× wangza@swsresearch.com 2025 年 10 月 08 日 《旺季尾声批价回稳 行业调整仍在继续一 一食品饮料行业周报 20250922- 20250926》 2025/09/27 《批价走弱 关注终端动销一 -- 食品饮料行 业周报 20250915-20250919》 2025/09/21 证券分析师 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouvuan@swsresearch.com 目昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 时代小说书 =="# 投资分析意见：结合 2025 中秋国庆白酒渠道反馈，我们预计 2025 中秋国庆白酒行业 整体需求同比下降 30~20%，库存增加 10-20% (全年任务量) , 批价全面下行。从 消费场景看，宴席表 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3][4][59] Core Insights - The overall demand for the liquor industry during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is expected to decline by 20-30% year-on-year, with inventory increasing by 10-20% [3][7] - The industry is still in a bottoming phase, and patience is required for potential investment opportunities [3][7] - The report highlights that the stock price turning point may occur before the fundamental turning point, suggesting a need for cautious observation [3][7] Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoint - The report anticipates a significant decline in liquor demand, with banquet performance below expectations and gift demand decreasing [3][7] - The current high inventory levels in channels will require time to digest, and the consumption scenarios are still recovering, leading to weak demand [3][7] - Key recommendations include maintaining patience for high-dividend stocks and waiting for potential buying opportunities in quality stocks [3][7] Brand Performance - Moutai is performing the best, while Wuliangye is trading volume for price [8][9] - Moutai's expected sales decline is in single digits, with prices slightly down to around 1780-1835 yuan [8] - Wuliangye's sales are expected to drop by about 15%, with current prices around 810-830 yuan [8] - Guojiao 1573 is controlling inventory to maintain prices, with expected sales declines of 20-30% [8][9] Regional Liquor Situation - Feedback from various regions indicates a general decline in sales, with specific brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing varying performance [11][19] - The report notes that the business and banquet consumption scenarios are under pressure, with overall sales expected to decline by 30-25% during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [44][49] - The report emphasizes the need for careful monitoring of inventory levels and sales performance across different brands and regions [11][19] Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the food and beverage sector, highlighting projected net profits and PE ratios for companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [53]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 232.08 CNY [1][10] Core Views - The company shows resilient performance with steady growth in revenue, despite a slight decline in profit margins due to product mix adjustments [4][9] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence outside of Shanxi, with significant growth in regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta [9] - The product portfolio, particularly the "Glass Fen" and "Qinghua 20" series, is expected to maintain strong demand and adaptability in various market conditions [9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 31,928 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 21.8%. The forecast for 2025 is 35,471 million CNY, reflecting a slight decline of 1.5% [7] - Operating profit for 2023 was 14,224 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 30.8%. The forecast for 2025 is 15,952 million CNY, indicating a decrease of 3.5% [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 10,438 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 28.9%. The forecast for 2025 is 11,803 million CNY, showing a decline of 3.6% [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 8.56 CNY, projected to be 9.67 CNY in 2025 [7][10] Market Performance Summary - The company's stock price as of September 2, 2025, was 200.14 CNY, with a 52-week high of 232.57 CNY and a low of 142 CNY [1] - The company's absolute performance over the past week was -3.73%, with a 12-month performance of 23.75% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu has demonstrated resilience in a challenging white liquor industry, achieving revenue growth amidst overall market contraction [1][4][12] Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments, with a pronounced differentiation among companies; leading brands maintain their market positions while smaller firms face sales pressures [3][12] - The overall performance of listed liquor companies has been weak, with many reporting revenue declines, and the industry is experiencing a shift in consumer behavior [3][4] Company Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 23.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.35%, and a net profit of 8.505 billion yuan, up 1.13% [1][4] - The company's return on equity (ROE) stands at 24.09%, leading the industry and surpassing Kweichow Moutai by 5 percentage points [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company has adopted a clear high-end branding strategy and a rapid national market expansion, which has contributed to its sustained growth [6][12] - Shanxi Fenjiu's product strategy focuses on enhancing its premium offerings, particularly the Qinghua Fenjiu series, which has shown strong sales performance [8][10] Market Positioning - The company has successfully transitioned from a regional brand to a national brand, with revenue from provincial markets growing by 4.04% and from outside the province by 6.15% [12] - Shanxi Fenjiu's commitment to long-term strategies, including increased R&D investment, positions it well for future growth despite current industry pressures [12] Research and Development - The company has increased its R&D expenditure to 75.1792 million yuan, a rise of 36.43%, indicating a focus on quality improvement and product innovation [10] - Shanxi Fenjiu has achieved several technological advancements, with five out of six research outcomes reaching international leading standards [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 239.64 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 85.05 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.35% and 1.13% respectively [3]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 76.65%, with a net profit margin of 35.49%, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [3]. - The company is focusing on a nationwide expansion strategy, with significant growth in key regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 239.64 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 76.65% and a net profit margin of 35.49% [3]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 74.41 billion yuan, with a net profit of 18.57 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year decrease in net profit of 13.5% [4]. - The company’s revenue from its main product, Fenjiu, was 233.91 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, up 5.75% year-on-year [5]. Revenue Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 365.96 billion yuan, 385.37 billion yuan, and 417.43 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 1.62%, 5.30%, and 8.32% [11][9].

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu is focusing on quality-driven development by allocating resources differently across various product price segments and enhancing marketing strategies to achieve multiple objectives such as price competition and channel order [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue increase of 5.35% to 23.96 billion yuan, with net profit rising by 1.13% to 8.505 billion yuan [2][3]. - The revenue for Q2 showed a slight increase of 0.45% to 7.441 billion yuan, while the revenue for Fenjiu specifically grew by 5.8% to 23.39 billion yuan in the same period [2][3]. Product Performance - The sales revenue for Fenjiu in the first half of 2025 was 23.39 billion yuan, compared to 22.12 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, indicating a growth [3]. - The Qinghua series, particularly Qinghua 20 and 30, has achieved over 15% growth in the high-end market segment, contributing significantly to profits [4]. Marketing and Distribution Strategy - The company has implemented a resource allocation strategy of 1:3:3:3 for its key products, focusing on enhancing the competitiveness of its high-end offerings [4]. - Shanxi Fenjiu is optimizing its distributor structure and adjusting regional marketing expenses dynamically, with a notable increase in the number of distributors [6][8]. Regional Performance - Revenue from the domestic market increased by 4% to 8.73 billion yuan, while revenue from outside Shanxi rose by 6.1% to 15.14 billion yuan, with the latter accounting for 63% of total revenue [6][8]. - The company aims to enhance its market presence outside Shanxi, targeting a 65% market share in the future [6]. Digital Management and Cost Control - Shanxi Fenjiu is focusing on improving online payment management and enhancing the efficiency of its marketing expenses through a three-tier authorization system [9]. - The company reported stable tax and sales expense rates, with a sales expense rate of 11.5% in Q2 [9].