智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，元旦假期白酒需求较弱，多地反馈同比下降20%+，但环比 11、12月略有改善。供给端，酒企目标降低，渠道有望进一步去库纾压。需求端，目前渠道对春节需求 预期谨慎，预计整体下滑双位数、但降幅较元旦会收窄。价格端，对于高端酒，考虑i茅台持续出货叠 加传统渠道即将到货，预计飞天批价边际持续承压。展望2026年全年，酒企从被动应对进入主动调整， 机会在于茅台批价回落并企稳之后，预期筑底企稳。 华创证券主要观点如下： 元旦需求弱复苏，批价持续低迷，但大众消费韧性较强 元旦需求较弱，多地反馈同比下降20%+，但环比11、12月略有改善。一方面元旦距离春节约一个半月 相对较远，行业仍处淡季，另一方面消费者出行较多，宴席表现一般。量价维度看，元旦期间行业出货 量预计同降10%+，商务宴请、年会团购等需求明显减少，江苏、安徽等地反馈外部政策的疤痕效应仍 在；行业价盘承压，高端酒批价同降10%+，次高端酒批价普遍同降5-10%。局部亮点是大众消费韧性 较强，四川、安徽等地反馈大众宴席及聚饮表现较好，对应80-200元价格带周转不错。 春节的三个研判：渠道去库，下滑收窄，供需矛盾有望减轻 供 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the liquor industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [21]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for liquor is showing weak recovery, with a year-on-year decline of over 20% during the New Year period, although there is a slight month-on-month improvement from November and December [4]. - The report notes that the high-end liquor prices are under pressure, with a decline of over 10% for high-end products and 5-10% for mid-range products, while the mass consumption segment remains resilient [4]. - The report anticipates a narrowing of the decline in demand for the upcoming Spring Festival, with expectations of a double-digit decline but less severe than during the New Year [4]. - The report emphasizes that the pricing for high-end liquor will remain under pressure, with expectations of continued marginal declines in prices [4]. Industry Overview - The liquor industry consists of 20 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 288.22 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 288.18 billion yuan [1]. - The report provides a comparative performance analysis, indicating absolute performance declines of -6.0% over one month, -1.4% over six months, and -9.9% over twelve months [2]. Company Feedback and Strategies - Moutai is focusing on market-oriented transformation and has introduced a digital platform to stimulate consumer demand [5]. - Wuliangye is emphasizing sales growth and market order maintenance, with a strategy to enhance market share in the 800 yuan price range [5]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to increase subsidies and rebates to ensure consumer affordability while maintaining its brand position [5]. - Shanxi Fenjiu is focusing on key markets and maintaining growth momentum for its premium products [5]. - Yanghe is adjusting its sales strategies based on terminal orders and distributor inventory, with a focus on maintaining reasonable inventory levels [5]. - Jinsiyuan is experiencing growth in its mass price segment, which is expected to continue contributing to overall growth [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that pessimistic factors have been priced in, and as the Spring Festival approaches, demand is expected to recover, particularly for Moutai and Gujing [4]. - The report recommends focusing on Moutai for its high certainty and dividend yield, while also highlighting Gujing as a key player in the mass price segment [4].

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|食品饮料 [Table_Title] 食品饮料行业 2026 年白酒经销商大会跟踪 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-04 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]符蓉 SAC 执证号：S0260523120002 SFC CE No. BWC944 021-38003552 furong@gf.com.cn 分析师： 周源 SAC 执证号：S0260525040003 fzzhouyuan@gf.com.cn 请注意，周源并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 -4% 3% 10% 16% 23% 30% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 食品饮料 沪深300 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | | 食品饮料行业:浅析立高增长 | 2025-12-28 | | --- | --- | | 势能 | | | 食品饮料 ...

2026年1月1日9点，飞天茅台（普茅）上线i茅台，经过多次补货，也是半小时即售罄，这拉开了茅台市场化改革的序幕，也拉开了2026年中国白酒三端改 革（酒厂端、经销商端、消费者端）的深刻序幕。 知酒君注意到，在去年12月，中国白酒的前三甲茅台、五粮液、汾酒都召开了经销商大会，酒企领导也在会上宣布了很多重磅的改革措施。茅台集团（股 份）党委书记、董事长陈华定调"以消费者为中心、推进市场化转型"；五粮液集团（股份）公司党委书记、董事长曾从钦声称"改革力度前所未有"；汾酒 集团党委书记、董事长袁清茂提出"真情共鸣，彼此成就，与消费者共创未来"。 虽然四季度的财报数据尚未发布，但普遍认为不容乐观，会延续三季度的消费疲软态势。2026年的春节比2025年晚了将近20天，所以传统的元春促销旺季 对四季度业绩的拉升效果也会比较弱。 经销商大会既是复盘过去一年的成绩与得失，也是布局未来一年的战略与战术，其主题更是直接凸显企业对行情的审慎思考与对未来的预判。 2025年，茅台换帅，陈华首次亮相经销商大会，他也为茅台带来了巨大的变化。他提出"坚持以消费者为中心，全面推进茅台酒营销市场化转型"，结合会 后的系列动作：取消分销、普茅 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the essential consumer goods sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - Wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly stabilized, with specific brands showing varied price changes. For instance, the price of Feitian Moutai (case) is 1600 yuan, down by 50 yuan from last month, while the price of Wuliangye has increased by 20 yuan to 820 yuan [3][38]. - Discounts on liquid milk have significantly increased, while discounts on seasoning and soft drink products have narrowed compared to the end of November. The average discount rate for seasonings rose from 85.9% to 87.1%, and for soft drinks from 85.6% to 86.7% [5][17][35]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - The report details the wholesale prices of key Baijiu brands, noting that Feitian Moutai's prices have decreased by 640 yuan year-to-date compared to the previous year. Other brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao have also shown price stability or slight increases [9][38]. Discount Trends - Discounts on liquid milk products have widened, with the average discount rate dropping from 66.0% to 62.8%. In contrast, discounts on convenience foods have decreased from 95.8% to 94.8% [19][21][36]. - The report highlights that infant formula and beer products have maintained stable discount rates, with slight changes observed [18][35]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies rated as "Outperform," including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, indicating strong expected performance relative to the market [1].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquor industry is currently facing supply-demand imbalances, with companies reducing growth expectations and releasing channel pressures. The white liquor index has dropped by 12% since the beginning of 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 33% [1][11] - The report highlights that the overall market demand for white liquor has shown slight recovery, but actual demand remains weak, with mainstream product prices in a downward trend. Companies like Wuliangye and Gujing Gongjiu are reducing growth expectations, leading to significant declines in Q3 performance [1][22] - The report suggests that the white liquor sector is entering a configuration phase, with leading companies like Kweichow Moutai improving their price-volume relationship and showcasing dividend asset attributes, with a projected dividend yield of 4% in 2026 [3][4] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the report anticipates that supply-side optimization and channel clearing will occur, with a focus on quality company configurations. The industry is expected to see gradual recovery in demand, particularly during the Spring Festival sales period [2][29] - The report notes that channel inventory has decreased since Q3 2025, and companies are focusing on maintaining dynamic profits for distributors. Leading companies are gradually relaxing channel policies, indicating a stabilization trend in product prices post-holiday [2][42] - The competitive landscape is shifting from price differentiation to brand and organizational capabilities, with companies that can establish pricing power in specific regions or demographics likely to emerge from the adjustment cycle first [2][29] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest that the white liquor sector is now in a configuration zone, with a focus on brands that can navigate through cycles, such as Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, which are expected to see valuation improvements as market liquidity increases [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that have established advantages in pricing and regional market share during the adjustment phase, such as Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and Jinhui Liquor [3][4] - The report also highlights companies with strong shareholder returns and cash flow safety margins, such as Wuliangye, as potential investment opportunities [3][4]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing significant transformation in 2025, facing challenges such as high channel inventory and weak terminal sales, while also experiencing new opportunities driven by changing policies, consumption patterns, and scenarios [2][3] - The market is seeing a shift towards product innovation targeting younger consumers, with low-alcohol beverages and fruit-flavored wines becoming popular among Generation Z [2] - The industry is also accelerating its international expansion, moving from product export to cultural export, as domestic growth slows [2] Price Trends - The retail prices of liquor in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area have shown a clear trend of "overall decline, weak peak seasons, and increasing differentiation" [4][6] - Over half of the monitored products in the Bay Area have experienced price declines, including high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a significant pressure on the price points [6][10] - The price of high-end products has collectively "cooled down," with many products in the 1,000 yuan price range facing substantial pressure, leading to a significant gap between listed and actual transaction prices [6][10] Regional Analysis - In Guangzhou, the liquor market has continued to show price declines and frequent fluctuations, reflecting a deepening adjustment trend [8][9] - Shenzhen's liquor prices have shown stability in offline channels, acting as a "price ballast," while online channels have seen significant price drops [12][15] - In Foshan, the price trends are characterized by a "two-tier" differentiation, with stable products maintaining their prices while others experience significant volatility [16][17] - Dongguan's liquor market has shown structural differentiation in price trends, with high-end products under pressure and mid-range products adopting flexible pricing strategies [19][21] Market Dynamics - The collective price adjustments in the Bay Area are driven by a combination of macroeconomic pressures, industry cycles, and channel transformations [22][23] - The current market pressure stems from a cooling demand for consumption, particularly in business and banquet settings, alongside a shift in consumer preferences [22] - The evolution of channels, particularly the rise of instant retail platforms, has increased price transparency and intensified competition among channels [23] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a "low-price" trend in the short term, with the upcoming Spring Festival being a focal point for potential sales recovery [24] - However, significant price rebounds are unlikely until consumer confidence is restored and channel inventories are effectively reduced [24] - The industry is likely to see a shift from price wars to competition based on brand strength, product innovation, and refined channel management [24]

咱们中国更明显，12 月飞天茅台批价一度跌破 1499 元的指导价，虽然很快反弹到 1570 元，但全年一 路往下走的趋势摆得明明白白，经销商们都在忙着清库存，谁也不敢再囤货了。 全球酒市都在发生同一个变化：高端酒的面子消费彻底凉了。以前喝超高端威士忌、千元白酒是为了撑 场面，现在大家花钱都精打细算，没人愿意为虚高的价格买单了。 这背后其实是酒业 "三期叠加" 的大环境 —— 政策调整、消费转型、存量竞争凑一块儿，高端酒的泡沫 自然就撑不住了。 | | | | 2025前三季度烈酒进口数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 米别 | 讲口量 | 进口额 | 均价 | 量同比 | 额同比 | 均价 | | | (ケナ) | (ケア | (元/升) | | | 同比 | | 葡萄白兰地 | 1.373.96 | 284.975.95 | 207.41 | -44.45% -55.66% | | -20.18% | | 威士忌酒 | 2,662.64 | 235,007.27 | 88.26 | 33.34% | 3.19% | -22.61 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][10]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery in consumer scenarios, with a stable price expectation for Moutai [1][3]. - The sector is entering a left-side layout phase, with high-quality companies expected to gain greater growth potential [2][10]. - The report highlights the differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcohol [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector experienced a cumulative decline of 1.52% this week, with A-shares down 1.63% and H-shares up 0.07% [1]. - The top five gainers in the food and beverage sector this week were Yanjinpuzi (5.11%), Huikaishan (4.85%), New Dairy (3.22%), Chenguang Biological (3.09%), and Anji Food (3.08%) [1]. 2. Alcohol Sector - In the liquor segment, the report recommends focusing on leading companies like Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Yingjia Gongjiu, while also monitoring the reform pace of Wuliangye and Yanghe [2][10]. - The report notes that the current market is in a left-side layout phase, with positive signals expected from both demand and supply sides [10]. 3. Beverage Sector - The beverage industry is experiencing a sustained boom, with leading companies significantly outperforming the market [14]. - Recommendations include Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, which are accelerating their national and platform expansion [14]. 4. Food Sector - The snack segment is advised to focus on strong alpha stocks, particularly in the konjac snack category, where leading companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi show strong competitive advantages [11][12]. - The restaurant supply chain is showing signs of stabilization, with recommendations for leading companies like Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring [12]. 5. Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Nongfu Spring, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are rated as "Outperform the Market" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 and 2026 [4][10]. - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts for these companies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The November CPI shows continued positive growth, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% compared to 0.2% in October. Food prices also turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [5][6] - The central economic work conference emphasizes expanding domestic demand, which is expected to improve per capita income and drive recovery in the food and beverage sector [5][6] - The report highlights the potential for new consumption (higher quality goods and services) to contribute positively to the industry [5] Summary by Sections 1. November CPI and Economic Focus - November CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking two consecutive months of positive growth. Food prices rose by 0.2% year-on-year, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 15% [5][6] - The central economic work conference prioritizes expanding domestic demand and improving income plans, which is expected to benefit the food and beverage industry [5][6] 2. Data Tracking: December Price Trends - As of December 12, 2025, the price of Feitian Moutai continued to decline, with prices at 1495/1485 RMB for whole and individual bottles, down 85 RMB from November 30 [7] - Core raw material prices show mixed trends, with packaging material prices declining year-on-year, while some raw materials like aluminum and paper boxes saw increases [16][27] 3. Market Review: December Index Performance - The food and beverage index fell by 3.5% as of December 12, 2025, underperforming the Wind All A index by 4.5%, ranking 27th among 31 sub-industries [47][49] - All ten sub-sectors experienced declines, with beer, seasoning, and soft drinks showing relatively smaller drops [47][49] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the mass consumer sector, including Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and others, as well as key players in the liquor sector like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu [50][51] - New consumption trends are expected to continue, with opportunities in snack and functional beverage markets, while traditional consumption is anticipated to improve [50][51]